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Divestment: Budget FY23 likely to see higher target; more focus on NMP
Indias Union Budget FY23 is likely to set a higher divestment target for the coming fiscal with more focus being set on the National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP).
Notably, the conclusion of the Air India divestment as well as upcoming listing of LIC is expected to prompt the Centre for a robust divestment target for FY23.
Besides, the possible shifting of BPCL divestment to next fiscal and an enhanced pipeline of core and non-core assets under the NMP could significantly ramp up the revenue stream.
“Divestment is likely to be kept robust at Rs 800 billion including the likely divestment of BPCL in FY23 and more assets coming under the NMP,” said Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global.
“We will not be totally be surprised if the government puts an ambitious target in FY23 again. We assume LIC IPO will be done in FY22 itself.”
In FY22, the Centre had kept a disinvestment target of Rs 1.75 trillion.
However, the target might be missed unless the LIC IPO gets completed in the next two months.
“We expect the government to continue keeping a high target for disinvestment and asset monetisation. If the LIC IPO gets postponed, then the budgeted disinvestment target will clearly be higher for the next fiscal,” said Suman Chowdhury, Chief Analytical Officer, Acuite Ratings & Research.
“However, it is unlikely that the divestment of public sector banks will reach a logical conclusion by FY23. There is a risk of a continuing gap between budgetary targets in disinvestment and NMP plans and actual achievements over the next 1-2 years.”
M. Govinda Rao, Chief Economic Adviser at Brickwork Ratings, said: “In all probability, actual disinvestment proceeds will fall short of the budget estimate of Rs 1.75 trillion.
“If the LIC disinvestment goes through, the shortfall will be less. The BPCL sale will surely spillover into the next year. Depending on the volume of spillover, the capital expenditure will be impacted.”
The Union Budget 2021-22 laid a lot of emphasis on ‘Asset Monetisation’ as a means to raise innovative and alternative financing for infrastructure and included a number of key announcements.
In particular, the NMP targets to raise Rs 6 lakh crore through asset monetisation of Central government, over a four-year period, from FY22 to FY25.
“Thirst on disinvestment will continue, not only this year but also coming years,” said Soumyajit Niyogi, Associate Director, India Ratings and Research.
“The focus is expected to be more on monetisation of various asset, than only on disinvestment.”
In addition, Isha Chaudhary, Director, Crisil Research said: “National monetisation plan announced earlier in the year too is yet to actively take off with the target outlined for FY22 likely to slip, the focus should be on meeting the targets set out over the duration of the plan viz. till fiscal 2025.
“With assets already identified under the NMP, the government and the bureaucracy should focus on meeting the divestment agenda set out in the NMP rather adding more assets. Rather prioritisation of projects to achieve targets should be the prime focus.”
Mumbai, June 12: Gold and silver prices traded higher on Friday, with precious metals surging by up to 2 per cent amid hopes of a peace deal in the ongoing West Asia conflict.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (August) increased as much as 1.11 per cent or Rs 1,668 to hit an intraday high of Rs 1,50,600 as of around 11:30 am.
The yellow metal was trading at Rs 1,49,916, up 0.66 per cent or Rs 948. It touched an intraday low of Rs 1,49,569, a gain of 0.42 per cent or Rs 637 from the previous close.
Meanwhile, silver futures (July) traded at Rs 2,42,143, higher by Rs 2,490 or 1 per cent.
The white metal touched an intraday high of Rs 2,44,817, jumping 2.15 per cent during the session so far. It recorded an intraday low of Rs 2,41,601, up 0.81 per cent or Rs 1,948 from the previous close.
Earlier in the day, gold and silver began the session at Rs 1,50,595 and Rs 2,42,776, respectively, on the commodity exchange.
According to commodity market experts, bullion remained under pressure overall and was headed for a second consecutive weekly decline as persistent inflation concerns and growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate hike continued to weigh on sentiment.
Analysts said precious metals rebounded sharply from six-month lows after US President Donald Trump indicated that the US and Iran could reach a peace agreement as early as this weekend.
However, gains remained limited amid continued uncertainty over the negotiations, with Iranian officials denying that a final agreement had been reached, according to them.
Optimism around a potential diplomatic breakthrough eased concerns over global energy supplies, triggering a decline in crude oil prices and improving broader market risk appetite, experts added.
Market participants will now track developments in US-Iran negotiations and upcoming commentary from the Federal Reserve for further direction in precious metal prices.
In international markets, COMEX silver traded at $66.94, up more than 4 per cent, while COMEX gold rose over 2 per cent to $4,203.70 per ounce.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices declined sharply, with US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude falling roughly 3 per cent to $85 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude declined 1.59 per cent to $88.94 per barrel.
Mumbai, June 11: Gold and silver prices traded lower on Thursday, with precious metals falling by up to 2 per cent amid escalating tensions in the West Asia conflict.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (August) declined as much as 1 per cent or Rs 1,573 to hit an intraday low of Rs 1,46,444 as of around 12 pm.
The yellow metal was trading at Rs 1,47,860, down 0.11 per cent or Rs 157. It touched an intraday high of Rs 1,48,089, up 0.04 per cent or Rs 72 from the previous close.
On the other hand, silver futures (July) were trading at Rs 2,34,500, down Rs 1,005 or 0.43 per cent.
The white metal touched an intraday low of Rs 2,30,493, declining 2.12 per cent during the session so far. It recorded an intraday high of Rs 2,35,402, down 0.04 per cent or Rs 103 from the previous close.
Earlier in the day, gold and silver opened at Rs 1,46,518 and Rs 2,31,671, respectively, on the MCX.
In international markets, precious metals also remained under pressure. COMEX silver was trading at $63.90, down over 1.29 per cent, while COMEX gold was trading 0.68 per cent lower at $4,105.30 per ounce.
According to commodity analysts, precious metals remained under pressure as investors assessed the latest developments in the West Asia conflict. Gold stabilised near multi-month lows after the US military confirmed the completion of its latest strikes on Iran, raising expectations that diplomatic negotiations could resume.
They said easing safe-haven demand, coupled with expectations that US interest rates could remain higher for longer, weighed on bullion prices. Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.
Market participants also continued to monitor inflationary pressures stemming from rising energy prices and their potential impact on the US Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices surged sharply, with Brent crude rising over 2 per cent to trade near $95 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 4 per cent to $93.64 per barrel.
Mumbai, June 10: Domestic equity markets traded higher on Wednesday in the morning session despite elevated geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices.
Sensex gained as much as 0.59 per cent or over 400 points to touch an intraday high of 74,356 in early trade, while the Nifty rose 0.46 per cent or about 100 points to 23,351.
Sectoral performance was largely positive, with FMCG stocks leading the gains. Nifty FMCG rose 1.5 per cent, followed by Nifty Chemicals (0.67 per cent), Nifty Oil & Gas (0.60 per cent) and Nifty Private Bank (0.50 per cent).
On the downside, metal stocks remained under pressure, with Nifty Metal declining more than 1 per cent. Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom fell 0.62 per cent, while Auto, Media and PSU Bank indices traded marginally lower.
Among the Nifty 50 constituents, Hindalco Industries emerged as the top loser, shedding nearly 3 per cent. Eternal, Adani Enterprises, NTPC and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) were among the other major laggards.
“While weak global cues and geopolitical tensions could keep markets volatile in the near term, technical indicators suggest signs of stabilisation after recent selling pressure. Nifty has strong support around 23,000-23,100, while 23,500-23,600 remains the immediate resistance zone. A decisive breakout on either side is likely to determine the market’s next directional move,” analysts said.
Investors and traders’ sentiment remained cautious amid escalating tensions in West Asia after the United States launched strikes on Iran, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict and its potential impact on global energy supplies.
On the commodities front, international benchmark Brent crude rose 0.75 per cent to around $93 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.88 per cent to nearly $90 per barrel.
In Asia, markets traded largely in the red. Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined more than 1 per cent each, while South Korea’s KOSPI plunged nearly 4 per cent.
Overnight, Wall Street ended lower, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.26 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite declining 0.97 per cent.
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