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Demand for India’s rice likely to shoot up in global market as floods hit crop in Southeast Asian nations

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 Demand for Indian rice is expected to increase amid heavy flooding in countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, which have been dominant players for this staple grain in the global export market. The heavy floods along the Mekong River belt have caused severe damage to crops in the two Southeast Asian countries. The paddy fields have been particularly washed away giving rise to concerns over food security amid surging global food prices driven by the Russia-Ukraine war.

Even as sowing of the grain in India this year is estimated to be 17 per cent lower due to inadequate rains in states such as Bihar and Orissa, analysts said that there is no cause for any worry as the country is sitting on adequate stocks from last year. However they maintained that New Delhi must refrain from taking any “sudden decisions.”

“Such adhoc and knee jerk reaction and banning of outbound shipment create problems for Indian exporters, they find it difficult to get orders in the future,” Anil Ghanwat, senior leader of Shetkari Sangathana, a Maharashtra based farmers union earlier told India Narrative.

India accounts for about 40 per cent of the global rice supply.

“India’s rice #exports to benefit & rise to ~$10-12 bn as key competitors ie Thailand & Vietnam suffer from loss in yields & cost surge. #India likey to #export 22 out of the 53 MT #rice demanded globally with market share of 40% in 2022,” Sachchidanand Shukla, Chief Economist, Mahindra Group said in a tweet.

Indian rice is also less expensive compared to the grain sold by Thailand and Vietnam.

According to World Grain, an analysis website, shrinking the price spread with Thailand and Vietnam, Pakistani quotes rose $40 to $420 per tonne amid steady demand from China. “Indian quotes rose minimally by $5 to $350 per tonne and remain the lowest globally with large supplies,” it said.

Even as the price of Thai rice fell amid the uncertainties, it was more than the Indian rate.

The problem of flooding is not specific to Southeast Asia. Even Bangladesh and parts of India � especially the northeast have been in the grip of floods. But at the same time there are states which have received less rain.

“Sowing of paddy has been lower this year but a 17 per cent less sowing is nothing to cause any alarm. We have ample stocks, left from the last year’s yields�in fact due to large stocks, many farmers in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu are also considering whether or not to sow paddy as then there will be problems related to storing. Our stocks are more than enough to feed our own people and export,” Ghanwat said.

Meanwhile, news organisation , Vietnam Plus as the Mekong River water level is rising steadily and people living along its two banks in Thailand have been warned to be ready for dealing with floods that can happen at any time.

The Mekong River belt is crucial for multiple crops. Besides paddy, beans, leafy vegetables, watermelon, chilies, various herbs, and many other varieties of vegetables are grown.

Business

Sensex, Nifty open higher as India-US trade talks set to resume

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Mumbai, Sep 16: The Indian benchmark indices opened higher on Tuesday amid mixed global cues, as US Chief Negotiator Brendan Lynch arrived in India to resume trade negotiations between the two nations.

As of 9.25 am, the Sensex was up 184 points or 0.23 per cent at 81,970, and the Nifty was up 47 points or 0.19 per cent at 25,117.

The broadcap indices outperformed benchmark indices, as Nifty Midcap 100 inched up by 0.26 per cent, and the Nifty Small cap 100 moved up 0.70 per cent.

Kotak Mahindra, Axis Bank and Hero Motocorp were the top gainers on NSE Nifty 50 index. Titan Company, SBI Life Insurance, Asian Paints and Tata Consumer Products weighed on the Nifty 50 index.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty Media, the top gainer, jumped 1.08 per cent. Nifty Auto (up 0.65 per cent) and Nifty Oil and gas (up 0.57 per cent) were the other major gainers. Except Nifty FMCG and Nifty PSU Bank, which were marginally down, all other indices were in the green.

Analysts said that, from a technical standpoint, a sustained move above the 25,160 level could pave the way for a rally toward 25,250 and 25,500 zones. The immediate support lies at 25,000 and 24,900 zones.

“The bold reforms – both fiscal and monetary – implemented this year have started yielding results and is likely to gather momentum in near future. An India-US trade agreement without the penal tariffs can be a shot in the arm for markets,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

Major US indices ended firmly in the green zone overnight as the Nasdaq rose 0.94 per cent, the S&P 500 gained 0.47 per cent, and the Dow advanced 0.11 per cent.

Most of the Asian markets made strong gains during the morning session. While China’s Shanghai index dipped 0.1 per cent, and Shenzhen inched down 0.26 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.54 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index inched up 0.07 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi inched up 1.2 per cent.

The US markets are pricing in a 96.4 per cent probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut on September 17, with additional cuts expected through year-end.

On Monday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 1,268 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 1,933 crore.

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Nifty, Sensex open flat as investors wait for fresh cues, US Fed meet outcome

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Mumbai, Sep 15: The Indian benchmark indices opened on the flat note with a positive bias on Monday, on the back of positive domestic inflation data and growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut.

As of 9.30 am, the Sensex was up 4.5 points or 0.005 per cent at 81,909, and the Nifty was up 4.15 points or 0.017 per cent at 25,118.

The broadcap indices outperformed benchmark indices, as Nifty Midcap 100 inched up by 0.26 per cent, and the Nifty Small cap 100 moved up 0.53 per cent.

Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors, Hero Motocorp and Bajaj Finserv were the top gainers on NSE Nifty 50 index. Infosys Ltd., Tata Consultancy Services, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd., and Shriram Finance Ltd. weighed on the Nifty 50 index.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty Realty, the top gainer, jumped 1.19 per cent. Nifty PSU bank (up 0.39 per cent) and Nifty Auto (up 0.38 per cent) were the other major gainers. Nifty Pharma was the top loser down 0.78 per cent.

Inflation had cooled to 2.07 per cent well below the RBI’s projection of 3.1 per cent in August, latest government data said.

Analysts said that Indian equities, which have recently underperformed compared to global peers, now appear attractively valued. Positive factors such as ongoing GST reforms, anticipation of a Fed rate cut, and improving US–India trade ties are expected to further support the market.

Last week, Nifty 50 notched its eighth consecutive advance, closing above the symbolic 25,100 mark for the first time since July—its longest winning streak in a year and the biggest weekly gain in nearly three months.

“Nifty has been gradually taking out the crucial resistances and on the weekly chart, the Nifty has confirmed a pattern of higher tops and higher bottoms, which is an encouraging sign for a sustained positional bullish trend,” said Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities.

Nifty seems to be heading towards the next resistance of 25,250, while the 24,900 level could offer support, he added.

Major US indices posted strong weekly gains and closed near all time highs. The Nasdaq rose 2.0 per cent, the S&P 500 gained 1.6 per cent, and the Dow advanced 1.0 per cent, marking the best week since early August.

Most of the Asian markets made strong gains during the morning session. While China’s Shanghai index advanced 0.22 per cent, and Shenzhen added 1.07 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.89 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped 0.32 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi inched up 0.52 per cent.

The US markets are pricing in a 96.4 per cent probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut on September 17, with additional cuts expected through year-end. Softer labour data and persistent inflation support the dovish shift, boosting demand for equities and cryptocurrencies, said analysts.

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Adani Power signs pact to supply 2,400 MW power to Bihar

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New Delhi, Sep 13: In a significant development, Adani Power Ltd (APL) has signed a 25-year power supply agreement with Bihar State Power Generation Company Ltd (BSPGCL) to supply 2,400 megawatt (MW) of power to the state, the Adani Group’s firm said on Saturday.

Under the agreement, the India’s largest private sector thermal power generator would supply the proposed power from a greenfield ultra super critical plant to be set up at Pirpainti in Bhagalpur district of Bihar.

The development came after a Letter of Award (LoA) by BSPGCL to APL, on behalf of North Bihar Power Distribution Company Ltd (NBPDCL) and South Bihar Power Distribution Company Ltd (SBPDCL) in August.

Adani Power won the project by offering the lowest supply rate at Rs 6.075 per kWh.

“The company is planning to invest approximately $3 billion to build the new plant (800 MW X 3) and its supporting infrastructure under the Design, Build, Finance, Own, and Operate (DBFOO) model,” the APL informed.

The coal linkage for the power plant has been allocated under the SHAKTI Policy of the government of India.

During the construction phase, the project will generate around 10,000 to 12,000 direct and indirect employment. Once it becomes operational, it will employ 3,000 people.

APL aims to commission the plant in 60 months.

Earlier, in a first-of-its-kind adoption of the greenshoe option in a thermal power tender in India, APL was awarded a total of 1,600 MW capacity by MP Power Management Company Limited (MPPMCL).

The company received a LoA from MPPMCL, awarding 800 MW additional capacity under the ‘Greenshoe Option’.

Both units (800MW x 2) in Anuppur district, Madhya Pradesh, will be commissioned within 60 months of the appointed date.

APL said that it will invest around Rs 21,000 crore towards setting up the plant and related infrastructure.

The project is expected to generate direct and indirect employment of 9,000-10,000 during the construction phase, and 2,000 once in operation.

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