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Central bank liquidity, not fundamentals, driving extraordinary valuations: Citibank

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Much of the “extraordinary valuations” in markets are riding on liquidity flows from central banks and not necessarily being driven by fundamentals, Citibank’s global markets strategist told IANS during a briefing on the bank’s 2022 outlook.

“This has shown up in the extraordinary valuations that we’ve had in things like the tech sector – and yes, some of that is due to corporate profitsa”, Matt King, global markets strategist at Citi Research, told reporters.

Pointing to a decade of research, King said all of his “favourite” fundamental relationships have broken down.

“What has taken over is basically QE (quantitative easing).”

Central bank liquidity and QE, King said, have explained markets better than any other toolkit.

King noted that markets have struggled to price in the effects of the coming liquidity ahead of time. “It’s only as the liquidity is hitting the market or is not hitting the market that actually the market seems capable of responding,” he said.

Within that framework, King said markets remain “vulnerable” as the US Federal Reserve is forced towards quantitative tightening.

The Fed signaled last week that it will begin a string of interest-rate hikes in March to combat stubbornly high inflation.

Risk assets in particular are on shaky ground in the unfolding scenario, according to King.

Taking a broader view of the worsening inflation in the US, King talked about the “odd world” that’s been created where everyone can afford a loaf of bread but asset prices are overheated and unaffordable, leading to inequality and political polarisation.

“At least with hindsight I think you can make a case that maybe they (government) contributed more to asset price bubbles in the previous decades than they themselves would like to recognise,” King said.

When interest rates do rise – and that’s on the horizon in the US, what’s Citi’s take on the clamor to buy the dip if markets trend downwards?

“If you believe that it’s all about the level of stimulus and it’s about markets following fundamentals, and you think there’s too much liquidity in markets – and that’s where most of the Citi house view is – then actually you’re still probably bullish.”

King himself is bracing for a correction. It will be very difficult, he said, to slam the brakes on the liquidity without a correction in markets.

King said he is much more worried about a “2018-style correction”.

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Govt revises raw sugar import norms, allows 2 months for processing and sale

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New Delhi, Aug 25: The government has revised the timeline for processing and selling duty-free imported raw sugar and allowed importers up to two months from the date of filing the bill of entry to convert the sugar into white or refined sugar and sell it in the domestic market.

The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) amended the modalities notified — earlier in August — for the import of 10 lakh tonnes of raw sugar under the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) scheme.

Under the earlier provision, raw sugar imported under the TRQ was required to be processed into white or refined sugar and sold in the domestic market by October 31.

The revised provision removes that fixed deadline and stipulates that importers must process and sell the imported raw sugar within a period not exceeding two months from the date of filing the Bill of Entry.

In addition, the government had on August 20 allowed duty-free imports of 1 million tonnes of raw sugar under the TRQ scheme until October 31 amid a sharp rise in domestic sugar prices ahead of the festive season.

However, the latest amendment does not change other terms and conditions of the August 20 notification.

The government had also permitted a one-time conversion of existing Advance Authorisations issued under SION E-52 into the TRQ scheme for raw sugar actually imported under those authorisations up to August 20.

The conversion covers refined sugar already produced as well as sugar to be produced from the imported raw sugar which is subject to payment of GST exempted at the time of import and other prescribed conditions.

The government’s decision comes as it steps up efforts to improve domestic sugar availability and contain price pressures ahead of the August-November festive period when demand typically rises.

Additionally, industry leaders and experts said that India has sufficient sugar stocks to meet domestic demand and prices are likely to moderate over the next few weeks as supplies improve.

The sharp increase in sugar prices over the past 15-20 days was driven largely by market sentiment, speculative buying and concerns over short-term supply, rather than any structural shortage, says ISMA Director General Deepak Ballani.

According to Ballani, sufficient sugar would remain available until the end of the current season on September 30 and the market situation is expected to improve shortly.

ISMA President Neeraj Shirgaokar also assured consumers that the country has adequate stocks and there would be no difficulty in meeting demand, including during the upcoming festive season.

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Indian IT firms emerge as key partners for global AI labs: Report

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New Delhi, Aug 25: Indian IT services companies are emerging as indispensable partners for leading global artificial intelligence labs as enterprises shift focus from model capability to deployment, integration and change management, a new report has said.

The Indian IT industry has traditionally owned these areas which help move pilots into production and such skills are in the spotlight of firms such as OpenAI and Anthropic, the report from brokerage UBS said.

OpenAI has flagged that demand for enterprise deployment of its coding assistant Codex outpaced its own capacity to help clients adopt it, prompting partnerships with global systems integrators (GSIs) including Accenture, Capgemini, Cognizant, Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services.

Anthropic also acknowledged that a successful pilot is different from a running system a business can actually depend upon, adding that companies that succeed with AI integration typically do so with partners who have executed such projects before.

Infosys features on both frontier labs’ partner roster and TCS is mentioned specifically among Anthropic’s partners.

The brokerage noted that firms feel that unclear return on investment, data readiness and governance are the major barriers to scaling AI deployments, rather than model performance itself.

Management commentary across nearly all major Indian IT companies during Q1 FY27 earnings season showed that clients demanded measurable outcomes, governance frameworks and stronger data foundations before committing to large-scale AI rollouts.

Infosys management mentioned that clients have increased allocation toward AI, infrastructure, data readiness and cloud platforms, indicating that data preparedness, not model access, is now the gating factor for AI implementation.

TCS also felt AI governance ranking among top priorities of enterprises, with clients demanding end-to-end accountability on return on investment even as their existing technology stacks often lack readiness for AI scaling.

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UPI transaction volume surges almost 13,000-fold in a decade to over 24,162 crore: Govt

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New Delhi, Aug 24: The annual transaction volume of Unified Payments Interface (UPI) has surged almost 13,000-fold from 1.78 crore transactions in FY 2016-17 to more than 24,162 crore transactions in FY 2025-26, the Ministry of Finance said on Monday.

UPI, launched on August 25, 2016 by the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) under the regulatory oversight of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), has emerged as the backbone of India’s digital payments ecosystem and a key driver of financial inclusion.

According to the ministry, the value of UPI transactions has also expanded sharply, rising from Rs 0.07 lakh crore in FY 2016-17 to approximately Rs 314 lakh crore in FY 2025-26, representing a more than 4,000-fold increase over the decade.

The platform has become a major pillar of India’s Digital Public Infrastructure, offering an interoperable and real-time payments system that enables seamless person-to-person and person-to-merchant transactions.

The ministry said UPI’s scale, reliability and interoperability have received global recognition, with the International Monetary Fund acknowledging it as the world’s largest real-time payment system by transaction volume. As of 2025, UPI accounted for nearly 49 per cent of global real-time payment transaction volume.

The growth momentum has accelerated further in 2026. Monthly UPI transaction volume crossed the 2,300 crore mark for the first time in May, when 2,320 crore transactions were recorded. The platform subsequently touched a record 2,366 crore transactions in July, the highest monthly volume in its decade-long journey.

Institutional participation has also expanded significantly. The number of banks live on UPI increased from 44 in FY 2016-17 to 703 by FY 2025-26, covering public sector banks, private banks, small finance banks, payment banks and cooperative banks.

The ministry said UPI has witnessed particularly strong adoption in merchant payments. Person-to-merchant transactions accounted for 63 per cent of total transaction volume, while person-to-person transactions contributed 71 per cent of the overall transaction value.

The data also highlights the widespread use of UPI for small-value everyday payments. Around 86 per cent of P2M transactions in FY2026 were below Rs 500, while 59 per cent of P2P transactions were also below Rs 500.

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