Connect with us
Friday,08-November-2024
Breaking News

Business

Budget’s growth focus to face macro challenges

Published

on

The Budget is focused on growth, but will face macro challenges, Japanese brokerage Nomura said in a report.

First, the ability of the government — both central and states — to spend 2.9 per cent of GDP on capex will face execution hurdles. Identification of projects, on-the-ground implementation, coordination with different agencies — all typically lead to a smaller amount being spent than allocated.

Second, if revenues disappoint or other expenses rise (higher subsidies or more allocation towards rural employment, for example), then there is a risk of the capex amount being pruned.

Third, we see other growth challenges. India is currently in the midst of a business cycle recovery. However, we expect India’s growth to decelerate from H2 CY2022 onwards, reflecting weaker consumption demand from low income households (due to scarring effects and high inflation), weaker export growth and continued sub-par private capex due to low capacity utilisation.

Rising oil prices (a negative term of trade effect) and tighter global financial conditions are also growth headwinds.

Hence, if the capex-led push is not fruitful, then the growth slowdown could be material. We currently expect GDP growth of 8.7 per cent y-o-y in FY22 (reduced recently from 9.2 per cent owing to the impact of Omicron.

Nomura said we continue to expect higher inflation and wider current account deficits, largely due to rising commodity prices, although an expansionary budget may also play an incremental role. On inflation, while food prices appear in check, core inflationary pressures are rising across clothing, household goods and services and personal care items.

Firms are passing higher input prices onto consumer prices. Domestic fuel prices are currently on hold, but will likely be adjusted higher after the state elections. We expect services price inflation to also rise as the economy opens.

We expect elevated global commodity prices, high inflation and steady domestic demand to result in higher imports, widening the current account deficit to 2.6 per cent of GDP in 2022, up from a deficit of 1.3 per cent in 2021.

The Budget is unambiguously focused on reviving growth, via higher public capex. Capital expenditure generally results in a higher growth multiplier, so the continued focus on infrastructure spending, including support to states to spend on capex, is important at a time when private capex is sluggish.

The government expects to miss its budgeted fiscal deficit target of 6.8 per cent of GDP for FY22 (year ending March 2022) marginally, with an actual outturn of 6.9 per cent (Figure 1). The sharp rise in receipts of corporate taxes, robust income taxes and strong indirect taxes (in part due to higher fuel excise duties in the first half of the year) have resulted in net tax revenues exceeding budget estimates by Rs 2.2trn (1.0 per cent of GDP). However, contrary to our expectation, the government has revised up its capex commitment for the year by Rs 485bn (0.2 per cent of GDP), though this primarily reflects the government clearing its liabilities of the recently divested Air India. Also, in line with our expectations, revenue expenditure (revex) has been higher by Rs 2.4trn (1.0 per cent of GDP), reflecting the second wave support package, food and fertiliser subsidies, export incentives and extra spending by some departments. Finally, the disinvestment target has now been calibrated lower by Rs 970bn (0.4 per cent of GDP).

Business

India Set To Lead The World In 6G, Says Telecom Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia

Published

on

In a bold declaration at the inaugural address of the Indian Mobile Congress 2024 (IMC) on Tuesday, Union Telecom Minister Jyotiraditya M. Scindia has said that India will lead the world in the adoption of 6G.

In his address at the event, Scindia emphasized that India is now prepared to lead the world in the development of 6G technology.

India’s Technological Rise: From Following to Leading

“It is our belief and commitment that India, which followed the world in 4G and marched with it in 5G, will lead the world in 6G,” Scindia stated.

The minister highlighted India’s remarkable achievements in the telecommunications sector over the last ten years, the country has become a global leader in innovation and technology.

“It’s a fundamental change in approach towards technology development,” he said, attributing this transformation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership.

Telecom Sector Growth Under PM Modi’s Leadership

“Prime Minister who has always put people at the heart of progress Sabka Sath, Sabka Vikas Sabka Vishvas aur Sabka Prayas combined with his second motto, One Earth, One Family and One Future. It is combination of these two mottos that leads India under PM Narendra Modi leadership one of the leading sectors in the committee of Nations,” Scindia said.

Scindia underscored government’s initiatives to bridge the digital divide, particularly through the BharatNet program, the world’s largest rural broadband connectivity initiative to connect every panchayat of the nation. Over the past three years, the government has invested more than USD 10 billion and laid 7 lakh kilometres of fiber across rural India.

Digital Payments and UPI: Pillars of India’s Digital Economy

He cited staggering growth in mobile and broadband connectivity, with mobile connections rising from 94 million to 1.16 billion, and broadband users growing from 60 million to 924 million in just a decade. India’s optical fibre cable (OFC) networks has expanded from 11 million kilometers to 41 million kilometres over the last ten years, he added.

The minister further said that this growth is accompanied by the success of India’s digital payment systems, the 4G stack, and the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), which serve as pillars of India’s digital economy are expected to contribute significantly to the global digital infrastructure.

Scindia further noted that the government’s efforts to ensure that policy frameworks keep pace with the rapidly evolving digital landscape. “The recent changes to the Telecommunications act 2023 is a case in point. It has been drawing light upon hither to undressed areas such as a high potential sector of satellite communications, addressing the challenges of the digital leader. The most important being cyber security. The telecom sector much like other growth critical sectors in India is aggressive, is ambitioushe said.

“The telecom sector much like other growth critical sectors in India is aggressive, is ambitious and its outlook in our Journey from Amritkal to Shatabdikal is to lead the world,” Scindia said. By mid-next year, India will have achieved 100 per cent saturation of 4G across the entire country, covering even the most remote villages, the minister said.

He emphasised PM Modi’s vision of India as a first mover in 6G technology, underscoring the nation’s resolve to lead the world in future telecom innovations.

“The attitude put forward by the prime minister of not just embracing, but raising ourselves to becoming the first mover in the 6G technology,” he added.

Continue Reading

Business

Indian Markets Gave Better Returns Than China In Last 5 Years, Says Sebi Member

Published

on

Sebi Whole-time Member Ananth Narayan G on Monday reminded investors that Indian equities have consistently delivered 15 per cent returns over the last 5 years whereas the same has been zero or even negative in China.

Terming the Indian markets “sone pe suhaga” for delivering higher returns for lower risks, Narayan also flagged a few areas of caution for investors and asked them to be conscious of the risks.

“There’s a lot of talk about China markets over the last few days. But over the last five years, while Indian markets have given around 15 per cent compound annual growth rate consistently, Chinese markets are nowhere close to that. It’s almost zero. In fact, in some cases, like in Hong Kong, it’s actually negative,” Narayan said.

Speaking at an event marking the start of the Investor Awareness Week at NSE, Narayan said FY24 was a “remarkable” year for India, with the benchmark indices returning 28 per cent and the volatility just 10 per cent.

“That’s like ‘sone pe suhaga’. It’s like the best of all worlds: low risk and very high return,” Narayan said, underlining that there are side effects of this as well.

Making it clear that it will not be the same going forward and investors should not assume it to be a one-way street, Narayan said such handsome returns can lead to complacency and pointed to a lot of youngsters opening up demat accounts to join the bandwagon.

Educating people about risks is very important, Narayan said, giving the analogy of driving a car. “There has to be a light push on the accelerator to get more investors to provide risk capital for the economic growth, we also need to be aware of risks and use the brakes if need be.” He said that 40 per cent of the small and midcap scrips have shot up by 5 times in the last five years, because of an imbalance between inflow of investor money and supply of new paper.

On its part, the capital markets regulator is trying hard to ensure that fund-raising clearances are done early so that there is a steady stream of quality paper supply in the market.

From a broader, longer-term perspective, Indian markets will only go north from here given the economic growth prospects in the country, Narayan said, issuing specific advice to investors.

Investors need to have the right intermediaries to capitalise on this opportunity presented by India, and not fall for the unregistered and fly-by-night ‘finfluencers’ who might be driven by vested interests, he said.

Using the oft-repeated idiom of “all roads lead to Rome”, Narayan remarked that Rome is not a traveller-friendly place and one may get scammed there as well. Therefore, it is important to seek advice from the right people for the investors, he said.

He also said that it is in investors’ interests to trade less and stay invested for longer for higher returns, and added that studies prove the same.

Sebi, which has flagged certain areas like derivatives recently, is not against speculation or participants taking short-term trades, but it would want investors to understand the risks, Narayan said.

Continue Reading

Business

Ratan Tata Rubbishes Rumors Of ‘Critical Health’; Says No Cause For Concern

Published

on

Ratan Tata Rubbishes Rumors Of 'Critical Health'; Says No Cause For Concern

Tata Group’s Ratan Tata has denied rumours of his critical health that have been reported and have surfaced in the recent hours.

Ratan Tata’s associates took to his official Instagram account to debunk the news of him being ‘Critical’.

In the post, Ratan Tata said, “I am aware of recent rumors circulating regarding my health and want to assure everyone that these claims are unfounded. I am currently undergoing medical check-ups due to my age and related medical conditions.

There is no cause for concern. I remain in good spirits and request that the public and media respect refrain from spreading misinformation.

For more than fifty years, Ratan Tata has led the Indian business community’s entrance hall. The 86-year-old has been suffering from illnesses associated with ageing. Tata has participated in social life to the best of his limited ability despite his health issues.

Recently, on the occasion of Gandhi Jayanti, on October 2, Ratan Tata, expressed his congratulations to the Prime Minister on this occasion. “I congratulate the honourable Prime Minister on the 10-year commemoration of programmes that have benefitted millions in rural India.”

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending