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Budget to focus on fiscal consolidation while pushing private capex

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 Union Budget 2022 will focus on gradual fiscal consolidation while pushing public capex, creating a conducive environment for private capex, and raising resources via strategic divestments, Morgan Stanley said in a report.

The budget is likely to focus on gradual fiscal consolidation, continuing to favour investment-driven growth with a push for both public and private capex, and raising additional resources through strategic divestments and asset monetization.

“Apart from this, we would be looking for clarity for Indian bonds to be included into global bond indices. Indeed, the overall focus of the government should be to utilize all revenue levers effectively (tax compliance to improve tax to GDP, strategic asset sales) to sustainably improve the health of the public sector balance sheet”, Morgan Stanley said.

The impact of the budget on the market has been on a secular decline. Nevertheless, market participants still need to negotiate volatility. Factors that will likely have maximum impact include a credible fiscal deficit target, the government’s spending plans vs fiscal consolidation, changes to long-term capital gains tax, lower taxes for the services sector, resolution of tax issues for FAR bonds, and the timing and quantum of asset sales.

The disruptions from the pandemic have weighed heavily on India’s fiscal metrics, with the central government’s fiscal deficit rising to an all-time high of 9.2 per cent of GDP in FY21. However, the story has changed in FY2022 with a positive surprise from tax revenue, which has seen improved buoyancy. As such, gross tax revenue is expected to track at 10.9 per cent of GDP in F2022 vs the budget estimate of 9.9 per cent of the GDP. As such, we expect the fiscal deficit to be at 6.8 per cent of GDP, assuming the LIC IPO is deferred to F2023. If the IPO happens in F2022, the fiscal deficit could be lower at 6.4 per cent of GDP, Morgan Stanley said.

“We expect the fiscal deficit to be 6 per cent of GDP in F2023, driven by some reduction in pandemic-related spending and continued tax buoyancy. A gradual fiscal consolidation path will also give the government flexibility to provide any additional support to the economy should Covid-related disruptions continue into F2023”, it added.

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SIP inflows hit all-time high of Rs 26,632 crore in April: AMFI data

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Mumbai, May 9: India’s mutual fund industry saw a historic surge in systematic investment plan (SIP) contributions in April, with investors pouring in a record Rs 26,632 crore last month, according to data by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) released on Friday.

This marks the highest-ever SIP inflow for any month, the report said.

In April, 1.36 crore SIP accounts were either closed or matured as part of this process. However, investor interest remained strong. The number of active SIP accounts grew to 8.38 crore in April, up from 8.11 crore in March, showing that people are still keen on building long-term wealth through mutual funds.

April also saw the creation of 46 lakh new SIP accounts, higher than the 40.19 lakh new accounts opened in March.

AMFI said the spike in account closures was due to a planned clean-up and is likely to reduce sharply from May onwards.

“The sustained inflows underscore improving investor sentiment, supported by strong corporate earnings, resilient macroeconomic fundamentals, and a continued tilt towards equities as the preferred asset class,” said Himanshu Srivastava, Associate Director, Manager Research, Morningstar Investment Research India.

Notably, the absence of any major new fund launches during the month indicates that investors largely allocated capital to existing schemes — a testament to their confidence in the long-term growth prospects of Indian equity markets, he added.

The record-breaking investment came even as the industry undertook a large clean-up of inactive accounts.

Despite a slight dip in inflows into equity mutual funds, the overall mutual fund industry continued to grow rapidly.

Total assets under management (AUM) reached an all-time high of Rs 70 lakh crore in April.

This is a big jump from Rs 65.74 lakh crore recorded in March — showing strong investor confidence in the market.

Large-cap mutual funds, which had faced outflows in recent months, bounced back with net inflows of Rs 2,671.46 crore in April.

This was a slight increase from Rs 2,479.31 crore in March. According to the report, this suggest that investors are regaining interest in these relatively stable funds.

Mid-cap funds attracted Rs 3,313 crore during the month, a minor drop from Rs 3,438.87 crore in March.

Meanwhile, small-cap funds continued to perform steadily, drawing Rs 3,999.95 crore in April, only slightly lower than the Rs 4,092 crore they received the month before.

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India, Chile make progress on comprehensive economic partnership agreement

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New Delhi, May 9: India and Chile have signed the terms of reference (ToR) for a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA), marking a significant advancement in their bilateral trade relations, the government said on Friday.

The mutually-agreed ToR were signed by Juan Angulo, Ambassador of Chile in India and Vimal Anand, Joint Secretary in Department of Commerce, who is also the Chief Negotiator for India-Chile CEPA from the Indian side.

Both sides reiterated their shared vision for strengthening bilateral relations and look forward to fruitful discussion during the first round scheduled in the national capital from May 26-30.

According to the Commerce Ministry, the CEPA aims to build upon the existing PTA (preferential trade agreement) between the two nations and seeks to encompass a broader range of sectors, including digital services, investment promotion and cooperation, MSME and critical minerals, etc. thereby enhancing economic integration and cooperation.

India and Chile are strategic partners and close allies, sharing warm and cordial relations.

Bilateral ties have steadily strengthened over the years with the exchange of high-level visits. A Framework Agreement on Economic Cooperation was signed between the two countries in January, 2005, followed by PTA in March, 2006.

Since then, economic and commercial relations between India and Chile have remained robust and continue to grow.

According to the ministry, an expanded PTA was subsequently signed in September 2016 and became effective from May 16, 2017.

In April 2019, both countries agreed to pursue a further expansion of the PTA with three rounds of negotiations between the years during 2019-2021. To deepen their economic engagement, both sides expressed their intention to negotiate a CEPA to unlock the full potential of their trade and commercial relationship, boosting employment, facilitating investment promotion, and cooperation and exports, as suggested by the Joint Study Group established under the Framework Agreement.

The JSG report was finalised and signed on April 30, 2024.

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Pakistan stock markets continue to bleed, down 14 pc since Pahalgam attack

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New Delhi, May 8: The stock markets in Pakistan further tanked on Thursday, as trading was halted at the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Karachi Stock Exchange fell more than 6 per cent on Thursday before the trading was halted. The stock exchange has been witnessing a continuous decline since the barbaric Pahalgam terror attack.

The main index, Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index (KSE-100), has slipped by more than 13 per cent since April 22 when the terror attack happened, killing 26 people, most of them tourists.

On April 22, the KSE-100 index was at 1,18,430, which has now dropped to 1,03,060.

Apart from this, another Pakistani stock index, KSE-30, has also fallen more than 14 per cent since April 22.

Amid the grim state of the stock markets, Pakistan has only $15 billion of foreign exchange reserves left and is on the verge of economic collapse.

The country is seeking a fresh loan worth $1.3 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to run its economy.

Pakistan’s economy, in the initial years after independence, grew at the same pace as India’s, backed by US aid and donations from the oil-rich Islamic nations.

However, while democratic India kept its focus on economic development and lifting its masses out of poverty, Pakistan has been rocked by bloody coups and military dictatorships, with the army Generals still calling the shots and fuelling hostility against its more prosperous neighbour.

Pakistan was on the brink of sovereign default in 2023 and had to be bailed out by a $3 billion IMF loan.

The country is still critically dependent on this financial lifeline and is desperately trying to raise another $1.3 billion climate resilience loan.

Overall, the neighbouring nation now faces an economic freefall – crippled by political chaos and the long-term cost of harbouring terrorism.

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