Business
Budget to focus on fiscal consolidation while pushing private capex
Union Budget 2022 will focus on gradual fiscal consolidation while pushing public capex, creating a conducive environment for private capex, and raising resources via strategic divestments, Morgan Stanley said in a report.
The budget is likely to focus on gradual fiscal consolidation, continuing to favour investment-driven growth with a push for both public and private capex, and raising additional resources through strategic divestments and asset monetization.
“Apart from this, we would be looking for clarity for Indian bonds to be included into global bond indices. Indeed, the overall focus of the government should be to utilize all revenue levers effectively (tax compliance to improve tax to GDP, strategic asset sales) to sustainably improve the health of the public sector balance sheet”, Morgan Stanley said.
The impact of the budget on the market has been on a secular decline. Nevertheless, market participants still need to negotiate volatility. Factors that will likely have maximum impact include a credible fiscal deficit target, the government’s spending plans vs fiscal consolidation, changes to long-term capital gains tax, lower taxes for the services sector, resolution of tax issues for FAR bonds, and the timing and quantum of asset sales.
The disruptions from the pandemic have weighed heavily on India’s fiscal metrics, with the central government’s fiscal deficit rising to an all-time high of 9.2 per cent of GDP in FY21. However, the story has changed in FY2022 with a positive surprise from tax revenue, which has seen improved buoyancy. As such, gross tax revenue is expected to track at 10.9 per cent of GDP in F2022 vs the budget estimate of 9.9 per cent of the GDP. As such, we expect the fiscal deficit to be at 6.8 per cent of GDP, assuming the LIC IPO is deferred to F2023. If the IPO happens in F2022, the fiscal deficit could be lower at 6.4 per cent of GDP, Morgan Stanley said.
“We expect the fiscal deficit to be 6 per cent of GDP in F2023, driven by some reduction in pandemic-related spending and continued tax buoyancy. A gradual fiscal consolidation path will also give the government flexibility to provide any additional support to the economy should Covid-related disruptions continue into F2023”, it added.
Business
Sensex , Nifty open lower as investors await RBI’s MPC decision

Mumbai, Dec 5: Indian equity markets opened slightly lower on Friday, as investors awaited the Reserve Bank of India’s key interest rate decision.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce the repo rate at 10 AM after concluding its three-day meeting, keeping traders cautious at the start of the session.
At the opening bell, the Sensex was at 85,187, down 79 points or 0.09 per cent. The Nifty also saw a mild decline, slipping 12 points or 0.05 per cent to 26,021.
Several heavyweight stocks dragged the market, with Reliance Industries, Trent, Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Sun Pharma and Titan trading in the red.
On the other hand, companies like Eternal, BEL, Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Finance, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Infosys and Ultratech Cement were among the top gainers, offering some support to the benchmarks.
In the broader market, sentiment remained soft as the Nifty MidCap index edged down 0.07 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index fell 0.30 per cent.
Sector-wise, pharma and metal stocks were under pressure, with both indices declining 0.3 per cent.
However, real estate stocks bucked the trend, helping the Nifty Realty index gain 0.28 per cent.
Analysts said that the markets traded cautiously ahead of the RBI’s policy outcome, with investors keeping a close watch on the central bank’s commentary and the interest rate outlook.
Rupee’s sharp recovery yesterday to 89.97 from the low of 90.42 is signalling some sort of stability in the currency market.
“RBI governor’s views on the rupee today will significantly influence the near-term direction of the currency,” analysts said.
Business
Cong flags sharp rupee decline in Rajya Sabha, warns of widespread economic strain

New Delhi, Dec 4: During Zero Hour in the Rajya Sabha on Thursday, Congress MP from Madhya Pradesh Vivek Tankha voiced deep concern over what he described as the “freefall of the Indian rupee” and the widening economic distress affecting ordinary citizens across the country.
Calling the issue “extremely topical and urgent”, Tankha said the currency’s sharp decline was inflicting widespread financial strain on households, businesses and key sectors of the economy.
Tankha noted that the rupee had crashed past Rs 90 per US dollar — touching between 90.14 and 90.19 — marking the weakest level in India’s history. Over the past five years, he said, the rupee has lost between 20 per cent and 27 per cent of its value, effectively reducing the purchasing power of people’s income by nearly one fourth. In global terms, the rupee has fallen 5 per cent this year alone, its steepest drop since 2022, making it one of Asia’s worst-performing currencies in 2025.
He further highlighted that India recently recorded a monthly trade deficit exceeding USD 40 billion, underscoring how sharply imports outweigh exports. At the same time, foreign investors have withdrawn more than USD 17 billion from Indian markets this year — the largest outflow in several years — drying up capital and weakening investor sentiment.
“FDI flows are stagnant, external borrowings have slowed, and the world is becoming increasingly wary of India’s external stability,” Tankha warned.
Emphasising the direct impact on citizens, he said that every bout of rupee depreciation makes imports costlier, and India relies heavily on imported fuel, cooking gas, electronic machinery and medicines. A 5 per cent fall in the rupee, he explained, pushes inflation up by 30-35 basis points.
“Every household ends up paying more. Food prices rise, transport costs increase, and a chain reaction follows that hits the poor the hardest,” he said.
The middle class, he added, is also feeling the squeeze as the prices of smartphones, laptops, medical equipment, school supplies, clothing and household appliances rise due to India’s dependence on imported components.
“For the common person, a falling rupee feels like a salary cut without the employer informing you. Your money buys less every day,” he remarked.
Tankha also drew attention to the pressure on Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), many of which rely on imported raw materials. These businesses are facing a 20-30 per cent rise in input costs, shrinking already thin margins.
Machinery imports have become more expensive, slowing expansion and putting jobs at risk. Exporters, he said, are not gaining from the weaker rupee because major export sectors — such as textiles, chemicals and engineering goods — depend heavily on imported intermediaries.
“Small manufacturers are caught in a double blow: higher costs and weaker demand,” he said.
Companies with foreign currency loans are also struggling, with repayment costs rising by 15-20 per cent due to the rupee’s depreciation, weakening corporate balance sheets and threatening financial stability.
A falling rupee, Tankha added, discourages overseas investors, creating a “vicious cycle” where declining confidence further accelerates currency pressure. “As the rupee falls, investors pull out, and markets shift,” he cautioned.
Tankha urged the government to recognise the seriousness of the situation and take urgent corrective measures to stabilise the currency and safeguard vulnerable sectors of the economy.
Business
Sensex, Nifty open lower amid weak global cues

Mumbai, Dec 4: Indian stock markets opened weak on Thursday as pressure from a falling rupee and continued foreign investor selling kept sentiment muted on Dalal Street.
The opening also coincided with the weekly F&O expiry for the Sensex, adding to the cautious mood among traders.
The rupee hit a fresh record low of 90.56 against the US dollar in early trade, worsening concerns about capital outflows.
The sustained depreciation has been fuelled by steady foreign investor selling, firm demand for the dollar, and lingering uncertainty surrounding India’s trade negotiations with the US.
Against this backdrop, the benchmark Sensex began the day at 84,958, down 148 points or 0.17 per cent. The Nifty opened at 25,953, slipping 33 points or 0.13 per cent.
Most heavyweight stocks on the Sensex traded lower in the morning session. HUL, Titan, Eternal, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, Trent, Ultratech Cement, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Motors PV, NTPC, Bajaj Finance, and HDFC Bank were among the major laggards.
Only a handful of large-cap counters managed to stay in the green. IT majors TCS, HCL Tech, Infosys, and Tech Mahindra led the gainers’ list, supported by a stronger dollar. Asian Paints and Bharti Airtel also opened with mild gains.
In the broader market, sentiment was mixed. The Nifty MidCap index edged up 0.17 per cent, showing some resilience, while the Nifty SmallCap index slipped 0.07 per cent.
Market participants said the recent pressure on equities is closely linked to the rupee’s sharp fall. After breaching the 90-per-dollar mark on Wednesday, the currency’s slide has become a key worry for investors, raising concerns over imported inflation and higher costs for companies dependent on overseas supplies.
With global cues still uncertain and the domestic currency under strain, traders expect markets to remain volatile through the day, according to experts.
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