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Budget to focus on fiscal consolidation while pushing private capex

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 Union Budget 2022 will focus on gradual fiscal consolidation while pushing public capex, creating a conducive environment for private capex, and raising resources via strategic divestments, Morgan Stanley said in a report.

The budget is likely to focus on gradual fiscal consolidation, continuing to favour investment-driven growth with a push for both public and private capex, and raising additional resources through strategic divestments and asset monetization.

“Apart from this, we would be looking for clarity for Indian bonds to be included into global bond indices. Indeed, the overall focus of the government should be to utilize all revenue levers effectively (tax compliance to improve tax to GDP, strategic asset sales) to sustainably improve the health of the public sector balance sheet”, Morgan Stanley said.

The impact of the budget on the market has been on a secular decline. Nevertheless, market participants still need to negotiate volatility. Factors that will likely have maximum impact include a credible fiscal deficit target, the government’s spending plans vs fiscal consolidation, changes to long-term capital gains tax, lower taxes for the services sector, resolution of tax issues for FAR bonds, and the timing and quantum of asset sales.

The disruptions from the pandemic have weighed heavily on India’s fiscal metrics, with the central government’s fiscal deficit rising to an all-time high of 9.2 per cent of GDP in FY21. However, the story has changed in FY2022 with a positive surprise from tax revenue, which has seen improved buoyancy. As such, gross tax revenue is expected to track at 10.9 per cent of GDP in F2022 vs the budget estimate of 9.9 per cent of the GDP. As such, we expect the fiscal deficit to be at 6.8 per cent of GDP, assuming the LIC IPO is deferred to F2023. If the IPO happens in F2022, the fiscal deficit could be lower at 6.4 per cent of GDP, Morgan Stanley said.

“We expect the fiscal deficit to be 6 per cent of GDP in F2023, driven by some reduction in pandemic-related spending and continued tax buoyancy. A gradual fiscal consolidation path will also give the government flexibility to provide any additional support to the economy should Covid-related disruptions continue into F2023”, it added.

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Sensex, Nifty recover from early fall as profit booking keeps markets volatile

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Mumbai, Dec 2: Indian stock markets opened with a sharp gap-down on Tuesday but soon recovered some losses as investors continued to book profits after the recent rally.

The Sensex was trading at around 85,508, down 134 points or 0.16 per cent, while the Nifty slipped 31 points or 0.12 per cent to 26,145.

“The Nifty’s positional trend remains bullish, with strong support at the 26000-26050 zone. On the higher side, 26300 could offer resistance on a closing basis,” market watchers added.

Heavyweights such as HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Ultratech Cement, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel, Tata Motors PV, Titan Company and Power Grid dragged the indices lower.

Eternal also remained under pressure during the early trade.

However, selective buying in stocks like Asian Paints, Infosys, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance, SBI, Maruti Suzuki, NTPC, HUL, and L&T helped the Sensex limit its losses and attempt a mild recovery.

In the broader market space, the Nifty MidCap index edged up 0.27 per cent, indicating some buying interest in mid-sized companies. On the other hand, the Nifty SmallCap index slipped 0.12 per cent.

Sector-wise, financial stocks were among the worst performers, with the Nifty Financial Services index falling 0.7 per cent and the Nifty Bank index dropping 0.4 per cent.

Meanwhile, the Nifty PSU Bank index gained 0.9 per cent, emerging as the top performer, followed by the Nifty Auto index, which rose 0.4 per cent.

Analysts said that markets remained volatile as traders continued to take profits amid mixed global cues.

“Investors can use the current period of consolidation to slowly accumulate fairly-valued largecaps and growth-oriented midcaps which will lead the next leg of rally in the market,” analysts stated.

The Smallcap segment continues to be over-valued. The Bank Nifty, despite the recent run up, have the potential to impart resilience to the market since there is valuation comfort in this segment. The pick up in credit growth is another positive for the segment.

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Gross enrolment under Atal Pension Yojana surpasses 8.34 crore: FM Sitharaman

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New Delhi, Dec 1: Gross enrolment under the Atal Pension Yojana (APY), a bid to create a universal social security system for all, especially the poor, the under-privileged and the workers in the unorganised sector, has reached 8,34,13,738 (as on October 31), the Parliament was informed on Monday.

APY was launched in 2015 with the objective of creating a universal social security system for all Indians. It is open to all citizens of India between 18 and 40 years of age who have a savings account in a bank or post office.

As per the Scheme, the subscriber will receive pension benefits on attaining the age of 60 years.

“Hence, the pension benefit under APY is expected to start from 2035 onwards. However, the gross enrolment under Atal Pension Yojana as on 31.10.2025 is 8,34,13,738,” Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told the Lok Sabha in a written reply to a question.

As on October 31, the female gross enrolment under APY is 4,04,41,135, which is 48 per cent of the total enrolment, she noted.

Further, in Bihar, the female gross enrolment under APY is 42,07,233, which is 57 per cent of the total enrolment in the state.

“As on 31.10.2025, a total of 7,153 Bank branches and 461 Post Office branches are enrolling people into APY in Bihar,” the Finance Minister stated.

The government and the Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) have taken several steps to increase awareness and coverage of APY across the country, including rural and remote areas of Bihar.

These include periodic advertisements; APY Subscribers Information Brochure in 13 vernacular languages; and virtual capacity building programmes for Banking Correspondents (BCs) and field staff of Banks, Self Help Group (SHG) members, and bank-sakhis of State Rural Livelihoods Missions (SRLMs).

During the last five years, such programmes have been conducted across various districts of Bihar, including in Muzaffarpur, Patna, Bhojpur, and Nalanda.

Recently, financial inclusion campaigns for pension saturation were organised pan-India India including 8,093 such campaigns in Bihar, said Sitharaman.

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RBI to cut policy repo rate by 25 bp on Dec 5: HSBC

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New Delhi, Dec 1: Since inflation is set to remain well below target for the foreseeable future, HSBC Global Investment Research on Monday projected that the RBI will cut rates by 25 bp during its monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on December 5 — taking the policy repo rate to 5.25 per cent.

Growth has been strong so far, benefitting from the front loading of government spending and GST-cut led retail spending.

However, the November Flash manufacturing PMI (56.6) indicated that GST-led boost may have peaked with the overall new orders coming in soft, said the report.

“Growth is strong for now, but could soften in the March 2026 quarter as the fiscal impulse becomes contractionary and exports slow. We expect the RBI to ease policy rates in the upcoming December policy meeting,” the report mentioned.

The July-September quarter GDP growth came in at 8.2 per cent YoY, higher than 7.8 per cent in the previous quarter and higher than “our above-consensus forecast of 7.5 per cent”. While GVA growth came in at 8.1 per cent, nominal GDP grew 8.7 per cent.

The GDP momentum was clearly higher than our above-consensus forecast. There are some good reasons for the strength, said the report.

One, GST rate cuts were implemented on the September 22, but the announcement was made on August 15.

“We think that production picked up in anticipation of a rise in consumer demand. Two, our recent work indicates that lower income states are starting to rise, even growing faster than the higher income states,” the HSBC report mentioned.

This, too, could possibly explain the strength in India’s growth momentum. After all, national GDP is the sum of state Gross State Domestic Products (GSDP).

According to the report, India’s growth has held up decently despite the 50 per cent reciprocal tariff on India’s exports by the US since August.

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