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As capital becomes expensive, startup funding takes a hit

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When capital was free, the best performing companies were capital consumptive. As capital has gotten expensive, these have become the worst performing companies, global private equity fund, Sequoia said in a recent meet with the community of founders.

As interest rates rise, valuations of cash guzzling companies and startups are being hammered and funding is drying up globally, and in India.

VC/start-up investments in India in April 2022 declined by 50 per cent year-on-year to $1.6 billion across 82 deals, according to the IVCA-EY monthly PE/VC roundup.

Vivek Soni, Partner and National Leader Private Equity Services, EY said the US Fed has started tightening monetary policy with a 50 bps interest rate hike and business risk premium/discount rates have gone up globally, which has had a significant negative impact on valuations of listed loss-making but growth-oriented start-ups. This is expected to have a spillover effect on the private capital side as well. Both start-up valuations and deal closures could see some slowdown in the coming few months.

According to the IVCA-EY monthly PE/VC roundup, April 2022 recorded investments worth $5.5 billion across 117 deals, including 16 large deals worth $4 billion. Exits recorded $1.2 billion across 13 deals, including six open market exits worth $483 million and one buyback worth $330 million.

Soni said April 2022 recorded US$5.5 billion in PE/VC investments, 27 per cent lower than April 2021 and 11 per cent higher than March 2022. Growth investments were back at the top after nine months with more than 2x growth y-o-y while monthly start-up investments recorded a 50 per cent y-o-y decline.

“The best performing assets ‘when rate expectations were falling – including technology, biotechnology, and recent IPOs- have been the worst performing assets. Simply put, the world is reassessing how business models fare in a world where capital has a cost and reconsidering how much credit to give companies for profits many years into the future”, Sequoia said.

“We are experiencing the 3rd largest Nasdaq drawdown in 20 years. It’s been an incredibly volatile last 6 months in the tech market. While it’s not quite 2001 or 2008, the Nasdaq is down 28 per cent since last November”, it added.

Sixty one per cent of all software, internet and fintech companies are trading below pre-pandemic 2020 prices. They’ve lost more than two years of stock price appreciation That’s despite many of these companies more than doubling both revenue and profitability.

One third are trading below COVID lows, when uncertainty and fear was peaking. Even more sobering, nearly one-third of these companies not only trade below their pre-pandemic stock prices, but they are now trading below the bottoms reached during March 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The market is now pricing in lower values for many stocks than in March 2020 at the time of peak uncertainty. The market bounced back quickly from those lows with the help of an unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal policy. Now with both those tools being withdrawn and moving from tailwinds to headwinds, the market is clearly indicating that the valuation framework over the last two years is no longer relevant with the removal of free money, Sequoia said.

It added that growth at all costs is no longer being rewarded. The era of being rewarded for hypergrowth at any costs is quickly coming to an end. EV/Revenue multiples across software have been cut in half over the last 6 months and now trade below the 10-year average.

Growth-adjusted multiples have fallen even further and are well below the 10-year average and pushing the 10-year lows. With the macro uncertainty around inflation, interest rates, and war, investors are looking for companies that can produce near-term certainty. Capital is becoming more expensive while the macro is becoming less certain, leading to investors de-prioritizing and paying up less for growth, Sequoia said.

The focus is shifting to companies with profitability. The focus on near-term momentum is often shifting toward companies Who can demonstrate current profitability. While the Nasdaq is down, Morgan Stanley’s unprofitable tech index is down 64 per cent. With the cost of capital (both debt and equity) rising, the market is signaling a strong preference for companies who can generate cash today, Sequoia said.

Cheap capital is not coming to the rescue. Unlike prior periods, sources of cheap capital are not coming to save the day. Crossover hedge funds, which have been very active in private investing over the last few years and have been one of the lowest cost sources of capital, are tending to wounds in their public portfolios which have been hit hard, Sequoia said.

Many don’t even have the capacity to invest, as the drawdown in their public portfolios has created an imbalance in their hybrid funds where their private investments (which have not been as dramatically marked down) represent more than the maximum private capacity within their funds, Sequoia said.

Shivam Bajaj, Founder & CEO, Avener Capital said alarmingly for the Startup ecosystem, private equity and venture capital investments declined by 25 per cent-30 per cent M-o-M in April 2022. Additionally, glorified startups including Nykaa, Zomato and Paytm continue to erode investor wealth by trading at approximately less than 50 per cent of their listing prices. With more than 6000 employees laid off in 2022 YTD by Indian Startups, capital providers might prefer delaying their plans to deploy their dry powder in expectations of future turnarounds in the industry. However, on the upside, asset-light business models built upon the pillars of consistent revenue generation, which deliver reasonable margins to investors instead of demanding rigorous burn rates, might potentially draw investor interest.

Siddharth Mehta, Founder & CIO, Bay Capital said the easy money policy of the Federal Reserve following the Global Financial crisis and accelerated in many ways at the onset of the pandemic had led to the excess liquidity getting funnelled into financial assets with increased speculative activity in such assets such as crypto currencies and NFT’s, over the last couple of years.

“India has been an equal beneficiary of this liquidity and now with the Fed being behind the curve in addressing inflation concerns and the extraction of liquidity with increased interest rates, it is definitely going to have a knock on effect on funding for early stage and late stage businesses as well”, Mehta said.

“Our view is that incremental capital will be allocated far better; investors will become far more discerning as they should have been; funding cycles will get more drawn out and diligence will be more robust and there will be far greater focus on profitability paths of these businesses. Its also likely that in some instances there will be consolidation and unfortunately mortality as well. The price damage in the public markets has still not fully cascaded down the stage curve and will happen very rapidly now. While this will have a negative impact in the near term, it is our view that over the long term, this will have positive effects as stronger businesses with robust business models, clear paths to profitability, scale and with clear differentiation will come out to be outsized winners”, he said.

Ravindra Bandhakhavi, Partner & Head-Private Equity, Cyril Amarchand Mangaldas says, “The global economic conditions are definitely impacting the funding environment for startups. There is much more emphasis on a proper diligence and a more robust corporate governance framework. Investors are also able to negotiate better rights as companies and startups are keener to have deep pocketed investors backing them at this point. Investors lastly are much focused on a path to profitability than they were before. Overall the more successful startups will still be able to raise funding while others will suffer potentially creating greater M&A opportunities in this space as well this year.”

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Maha govt presents supplementary demands worth Rs 11,995 crore in Assembly

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Mumbai, Feb 24: Amid strain on state finances, Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, who holds the charge of planning and finance departments, on Tuesday tabled the supplementary demands worth Rs 11,995 crore for the remaining period of the fiscal 2025-26.

Of the Rs 11,995 crore, the state government has earmarked Rs 3,112.85 crore to meet the expenses incurred on the concession given in the electricity tariff to Agriculture pump, power loom and textile consumers in the state, and Rs 803.94 crore has been proposed as incentives to small, medium, large industries and mega projects under the package scheme of incentives.

The government has proposed Rs 4,792.02 crore for transferring the loan amount to the state power distribution company, Mahavitaran, which has been received from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank for the solar agriculture pump scheme. This allocation is aimed at pushing the government’s plan to use 52 per cent renewable energy by 2030 under the net zero mission.

The government has also proposed Rs 1,431.05 crore as an additional fund as part of the Central share for the implementation of the Jal Jeevan mission. In March 2025, Ajit Pawar had presented the budget with a revenue deficit of Rs 45,890 crore.

In June 2025, the government presented the supplementary demands worth Rs 57,509.71 crore, crossing the revenue deficit of Rs one lakh crore.

In the Winter Session during December 2025, with supplementary demands of Rs 75,286.37 crore, the revenue deficit had already touched the Rs two lakh crore mark. In addition to the revenue deficit of Rs 45,891 crore, the budget 2025-26 had projected that Maharashtra’s debt burden is set to rise to Rs 9.32 lakh crore. In Tuesday’s supplementary demands, the state government has not only refrained from proposing any new and additional expenses but has focused solely on Power subsidies for farmers and Industry incentives.

CM Fadnavis will present the state budget for the year 2026-27 on March 6. He has already announced in the press conference on Sunday that there could be strict measures to maintain financial discipline.

Earlier, speaking at the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting, the Chief Minister had said that the state is on track to generate 16 gigawatts (GW) of solar power by the end of this year. By 2032, the state aims to generate an additional 45 GW, with 70 per cent coming from solar. Renewable energy, which stood at 13 per cent four years ago, is projected to reach 52 per cent by 2030,” he said.

Following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision, the state launched Asia’s largest decentralised solar scheme.

By shifting the entire agricultural load to solar power and establishing a dedicated company for farmer supply, the state is making every agricultural feeder independent.

“The cost of supplying power to farmers has dropped from Rs 8 to less than Rs 3 per unit. This transition is not only helping farmers but also reducing the financial burden on industries and households,” the Chief Minister noted.

The government is advancing a capital outlay for pumped storage hydro projects (combined capacity of 5,630 MW) with an estimated total investment of Rs 24,631 crore.

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Precious metals surge over growing geopolitical tensions

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Mumbai, Feb 23: Gold and silver prices surged significantly on Monday, amid growing geopolitical tensions and the US dollar’s steep fall.

MCX gold April futures gained 1.83 per cent to Rs 1,59,749 per 10 grams on an intra-day basis. Meanwhile, MCX silver March futures gained 5.10 per cent to Rs 2,65,836 per kg.

Earlier in the day, gold had jumped 2 per cent while silver soared 6 per cent. Analysts attributed the surge to geopolitical tensions as US President Donald Trump’s 10-day deadline for a “meaningful deal” with Iran drew closer.

Iran has indicated it is prepared to make concessions on its nuclear programme in talks with the US in return for the lifting of sanctions and recognition of its right to enrich uranium, as it seeks to avert a US attack.

Further, the dollar fell after the US Supreme Court struck down a vast swathe of President Trump’s tariffs on Friday.

“The US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down a large swath of Trump’s tariffs has weakened his ability to threaten and impose tariffs at a moment’s notice, but it won’t end gnawing uncertainty for trade partners or companies,” said Manav Modi, Commodities Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd.

“Silver is witnessing a large draw of inventories from all warehouses especially, Comex very significantly indicating the tightness in supply and surge in demand as China remains shut,” the analyst said.

Concerns over slowing US economic growth are also supporting gold’s safe-haven appeal. The US GDP rose 1.4 per cent annually in the fourth quarter, down from 4.4 per cent in the July-September quarter and 3.8 per cent in the April-June quarter.

“Gold has support at Rs 1,54,400 and Rs 1,53,150 while resistance at Rs 1,59,100 and Rs 1,60,600. MCX silver has support at Rs 2,48,800 and Rs 2,42,000, and resistance is at Rs 2,57,700 and Rs 2,63,620,” an analyst said.

Markets remain keen on data from US factory orders, cues on consumer confidence data, and US Producer Price Index (PPI) data.

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RCOM loan fraud: Anil Ambani files affidavit in SC; reiterates not to leave country

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New Delhi, Feb 19: Industrialist Anil D. Ambani has filed an undertaking/compliance affidavit before the Supreme Court reiterating that he will not leave the country without prior permission of the apex court in connection with the ongoing probe into alleged large-scale bank loan frauds linked to Reliance Communications Ltd (RCOM) and its group entities.

The affidavit has been filed in a pending public interest litigation (PIL) seeking a court-monitored probe into the allegations that more than Rs 1.50 lakh crore of debt of the Ambani-led RCOM group has been written off and that funds were siphoned off through multiple shell companies.

The affidavit formally reiterates the oral undertaking recorded before the apex court on February 4, when senior advocate Mukul Rohatgi, appearing on his behalf, assured that Ambani would not leave India without prior permission of the top court.

“By way of the present affidavit, I formally reiterate and place on record the said statement by virtue of the present affidavit as an undertaking before this Hon’ble Court,” Ambani stated.

He further deposed on oath: “That I have not left India since July 2025, i.e., since the inception of the present investigations, and presently have no plan or intention to travel outside India.”

He added that if any requirement of foreign travel arises, he would seek prior leave and permission of the Supreme Court before undertaking such travel.

Asserting that he is not a flight risk, the affidavit states: “In view of the above conduct, undertakings, and continued cooperation, it is evident that I am not a flight risk and have no intention, whatsoever, to evade the process of law.”

Ambani also stated that he has been fully cooperating with the investigating agencies. “That I, with utmost bona fide, have been fully cooperating with the investigating agencies in connection with the ongoing investigations and continue to extend complete cooperation,” the affidavit reads.

Referring to the ongoing probe under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act, 2002, he stated that examination under Section 50 of the PMLA is presently being conducted during the pendency of proceedings before the apex court.

“That I have been summoned by the Directorate of Enforcement to appear on 26.02.2025 and I undertake to appear and join the investigation on the said date,” the affidavit said, while also undertaking to fully cooperate with the authorities and “preventing any suggestion of evasion or selective presentation of facts.”

Clarifying his role in the group companies under scrutiny, Ambani submitted: “That I respectfully state that my role in the concerned companies had been that of a Non-Executive Director only, and I was not involved in the day-to-day management or operational affairs of the said companies.”

In the affidavit sworn on February 18, he stated: “That the present affidavit is being filed to ensure clarity, completeness, and procedural transparency in the judicial record with an intent that this Hon’ble Court remains seized of the broader issues arising from the same factual matrix.”

Ambani’s undertaking comes against the backdrop of the Supreme Court’s February 4 order, where a Bench headed by Chief Justice of India (CJI) Surya Kant had expressed serious concern over an “unexplained delay” by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) in probing alleged bank loan frauds involving public funds estimated at around Rs 40,000 crore.

The CJI Kant-led Bench had directed the ED to constitute a Special Investigation Team (SIT) of senior officers and asked both Central agencies to take the investigation to its “logical conclusion” in a time-bound manner, while making it clear that no coercive or harsh orders were being passed at that stage.

During the hearing, apprehensions were raised by advocate Prashant Bhushan that the key accused could flee the country before completion of the probe, following which an undertaking not to travel abroad without apex court permission was recorded.

The Supreme Court had also directed the ED and the CBI to file detailed status reports on the progress of their investigations and questioned why only a single FIR had been registered despite complaints from multiple lenders, observing that each complaint constitutes a separate transaction warranting independent examination.

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