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As capital becomes expensive, startup funding takes a hit

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When capital was free, the best performing companies were capital consumptive. As capital has gotten expensive, these have become the worst performing companies, global private equity fund, Sequoia said in a recent meet with the community of founders.

As interest rates rise, valuations of cash guzzling companies and startups are being hammered and funding is drying up globally, and in India.

VC/start-up investments in India in April 2022 declined by 50 per cent year-on-year to $1.6 billion across 82 deals, according to the IVCA-EY monthly PE/VC roundup.

Vivek Soni, Partner and National Leader Private Equity Services, EY said the US Fed has started tightening monetary policy with a 50 bps interest rate hike and business risk premium/discount rates have gone up globally, which has had a significant negative impact on valuations of listed loss-making but growth-oriented start-ups. This is expected to have a spillover effect on the private capital side as well. Both start-up valuations and deal closures could see some slowdown in the coming few months.

According to the IVCA-EY monthly PE/VC roundup, April 2022 recorded investments worth $5.5 billion across 117 deals, including 16 large deals worth $4 billion. Exits recorded $1.2 billion across 13 deals, including six open market exits worth $483 million and one buyback worth $330 million.

Soni said April 2022 recorded US$5.5 billion in PE/VC investments, 27 per cent lower than April 2021 and 11 per cent higher than March 2022. Growth investments were back at the top after nine months with more than 2x growth y-o-y while monthly start-up investments recorded a 50 per cent y-o-y decline.

“The best performing assets ‘when rate expectations were falling – including technology, biotechnology, and recent IPOs- have been the worst performing assets. Simply put, the world is reassessing how business models fare in a world where capital has a cost and reconsidering how much credit to give companies for profits many years into the future”, Sequoia said.

“We are experiencing the 3rd largest Nasdaq drawdown in 20 years. It’s been an incredibly volatile last 6 months in the tech market. While it’s not quite 2001 or 2008, the Nasdaq is down 28 per cent since last November”, it added.

Sixty one per cent of all software, internet and fintech companies are trading below pre-pandemic 2020 prices. They’ve lost more than two years of stock price appreciation That’s despite many of these companies more than doubling both revenue and profitability.

One third are trading below COVID lows, when uncertainty and fear was peaking. Even more sobering, nearly one-third of these companies not only trade below their pre-pandemic stock prices, but they are now trading below the bottoms reached during March 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The market is now pricing in lower values for many stocks than in March 2020 at the time of peak uncertainty. The market bounced back quickly from those lows with the help of an unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal policy. Now with both those tools being withdrawn and moving from tailwinds to headwinds, the market is clearly indicating that the valuation framework over the last two years is no longer relevant with the removal of free money, Sequoia said.

It added that growth at all costs is no longer being rewarded. The era of being rewarded for hypergrowth at any costs is quickly coming to an end. EV/Revenue multiples across software have been cut in half over the last 6 months and now trade below the 10-year average.

Growth-adjusted multiples have fallen even further and are well below the 10-year average and pushing the 10-year lows. With the macro uncertainty around inflation, interest rates, and war, investors are looking for companies that can produce near-term certainty. Capital is becoming more expensive while the macro is becoming less certain, leading to investors de-prioritizing and paying up less for growth, Sequoia said.

The focus is shifting to companies with profitability. The focus on near-term momentum is often shifting toward companies Who can demonstrate current profitability. While the Nasdaq is down, Morgan Stanley’s unprofitable tech index is down 64 per cent. With the cost of capital (both debt and equity) rising, the market is signaling a strong preference for companies who can generate cash today, Sequoia said.

Cheap capital is not coming to the rescue. Unlike prior periods, sources of cheap capital are not coming to save the day. Crossover hedge funds, which have been very active in private investing over the last few years and have been one of the lowest cost sources of capital, are tending to wounds in their public portfolios which have been hit hard, Sequoia said.

Many don’t even have the capacity to invest, as the drawdown in their public portfolios has created an imbalance in their hybrid funds where their private investments (which have not been as dramatically marked down) represent more than the maximum private capacity within their funds, Sequoia said.

Shivam Bajaj, Founder & CEO, Avener Capital said alarmingly for the Startup ecosystem, private equity and venture capital investments declined by 25 per cent-30 per cent M-o-M in April 2022. Additionally, glorified startups including Nykaa, Zomato and Paytm continue to erode investor wealth by trading at approximately less than 50 per cent of their listing prices. With more than 6000 employees laid off in 2022 YTD by Indian Startups, capital providers might prefer delaying their plans to deploy their dry powder in expectations of future turnarounds in the industry. However, on the upside, asset-light business models built upon the pillars of consistent revenue generation, which deliver reasonable margins to investors instead of demanding rigorous burn rates, might potentially draw investor interest.

Siddharth Mehta, Founder & CIO, Bay Capital said the easy money policy of the Federal Reserve following the Global Financial crisis and accelerated in many ways at the onset of the pandemic had led to the excess liquidity getting funnelled into financial assets with increased speculative activity in such assets such as crypto currencies and NFT’s, over the last couple of years.

“India has been an equal beneficiary of this liquidity and now with the Fed being behind the curve in addressing inflation concerns and the extraction of liquidity with increased interest rates, it is definitely going to have a knock on effect on funding for early stage and late stage businesses as well”, Mehta said.

“Our view is that incremental capital will be allocated far better; investors will become far more discerning as they should have been; funding cycles will get more drawn out and diligence will be more robust and there will be far greater focus on profitability paths of these businesses. Its also likely that in some instances there will be consolidation and unfortunately mortality as well. The price damage in the public markets has still not fully cascaded down the stage curve and will happen very rapidly now. While this will have a negative impact in the near term, it is our view that over the long term, this will have positive effects as stronger businesses with robust business models, clear paths to profitability, scale and with clear differentiation will come out to be outsized winners”, he said.

Ravindra Bandhakhavi, Partner & Head-Private Equity, Cyril Amarchand Mangaldas says, “The global economic conditions are definitely impacting the funding environment for startups. There is much more emphasis on a proper diligence and a more robust corporate governance framework. Investors are also able to negotiate better rights as companies and startups are keener to have deep pocketed investors backing them at this point. Investors lastly are much focused on a path to profitability than they were before. Overall the more successful startups will still be able to raise funding while others will suffer potentially creating greater M&A opportunities in this space as well this year.”

Business

Indian stock market ends holiday-shortened week on positive note

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Mumbai, Oct 4: The Indian equities closed the holiday-shortened week with a positive bias after recent corrections as investors’ confidence was reinforced with the RBI’s growth stance, analysts said on Saturday.

On Friday, Sensex ended the session at 81,207.17, up 223.86 points or 0.28 per cent. Nifty closed at 24,894.25, up 57.95 points or 0.23 per cent. The Nifty extended its pullback for the second straight session, crossing above its key 50-DMA at 24,830 and forming a bullish candle on the daily chart. After last week’s steep decline, the index displayed signs of recovery by closing above the 24,800 mark.

According to market watchers, upgrading the FY26 GDP growth forecast by the RBI to 6.8 per cent and announcing landmark reforms led to outperformance in the banking sector.

“Metals continued their upward momentum, supported by optimism over an anticipated Fed rate cut in October, a softer dollar index, and steady base metal prices,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Ltd.

Meanwhile, gold extended its safe-haven appeal, while silver rose on the back of strong industrial demand and supply-side constraints.

Consumer-facing sectors gained momentum on expectations of festive demand, whereas IT and pharma lagged amid the lack of progress on the US-India trade pact, said analysts.

According to a note by Bajaj Broking Research, benchmark indices ended the truncated week on a positive note, posting gains of nearly 1 per cent.

PSU bank stocks were another major contributor, with the Nifty PSU Bank index climbing over 4 per cent for the week. In Friday’s session, metals, PSU banks, and consumer durables led the gains, each rising between 1 per cent and 2 per cent.

Bank Nifty continue to demonstrate notable strength over the past 3-4 sessions. The formation of a bullish candle with a higher high and higher low in the daily chart signals continuation of the positive momentum underpinned by strength in large cap banking stocks.

Looking ahead, market momentum is expected to be supported by strong H2 FY26 earnings and seasonal demand tailwinds, though global trade developments and US policy actions could inject short-term volatility, said analysts.

The Fed’s recent 25-bps rate cut, coupled with prospects of further easing, is likely to bolster FII inflows into emerging markets, they added.

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India’s growth firmly anchored in domestic factors amid global volatility: FM Sitharaman

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New Delhi, Oct 3: We are in an era of an unprecedented global volatility where rules of international engagement are being rewritten, but India’s growth is firmly rooted in domestic factors and the country’s capacity to absorb global shocks is strong, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said here on Friday.

She highlighted that India’s robust domestic factors minimise impact of global uncertainties.

“We are in a shifting global landscape which resembles a zero-sum approach. Indian economy is resilient and continues to grow sustainably,” FM Sitharaman said while delivering an inaugural address at the ‘Kautilya Economic Conclave 2025’ in the national capital.

“By 2047, becoming Viksit Bharat by self reliance does not mean we wish to be a closed economy. We have to reach 8 per cent GDP growth to get to the goal for a developed nation,” she told the gathering.

According to the Finance Minister, we cannot afford to be passive spectators in today’s era.

“We must be active participants. Nations need to make choices between new monetary architecture. No nation can insulate itself from systemic changes, we must prepare to engage with them. Tariffs, sanctions and decoupling strategies are reshaping supply chains. International institutions need to reflect today’s realities,” she stressed.

Finance Minister further stated that what we face is not a temporary disruption but a structural transformation.

“The scale of challenge is too big. We will be understating the challenge at hand; it is structural transformation,” she said.

“The world as a whole is looking to come out of uncertainty, the global order is shifting. The world that emerged out of cold war and pushed for globalisation seems to be a thing of the past. Rules of international engagement are being rewritten,” she mentioned.

FM Sitharaman pointed out that the global order is shifting, with multilateral institutions currently undermining confidence in the international community. She cited the recent G20 discussions, where experts deliberated on the need for reforms in multilateral institutions to restore stability.

Highlighting India’s twin-track approach, the finance minister said the nation aims to simultaneously attain developed economy status by 2047 and strengthen self-reliance, clarifying that self-reliance does not imply pursuing a closed economy.

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Business

Sensex, Nifty open lower over sustained FII selling

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Mumbai, Oct 3: The Indian benchmark indices opened with mild losses on Friday due to sustained FII selling, despite positive global cues and market optimism driven by the Reserve Bank of India’s dovish pause.

As of 9.20 am, the Sensex was down 191 points, or 0.24 per cent at 80,792 and the Nifty declined 56 points, or 0.23 per cent at 24,780.

The broad cap indices, Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100, inched up 0.22 and 0.14 per cent respectively. Tata Steel, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tata Motors and Asian Paints were among major gainers on the Nifty pack, while losers included Max Healthcare, Bajaj Finance, Shriram Finance and ICICI Bank, among others.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty Metal, the top gainer, advanced 0.89 per cent. Nifty PSU Bank (up 0.59 per cent) and Nifty Pharma (up 0.30 per cent) were other major gainers. Nifty Media and Nifty FMCG were the top losers down 0.65 per cent and 0.45 per cent respectively.

Analysts said that from a technical perspective, a sustained move above 24,900 could pave the way for a rally toward 25,000 and 25,150. The immediate support is placed at 24,750 and 24,600, which may act as potential entry points for long trades.

The US markets ended in the green zone overnight, as Nasdaq edged up 0.39 per cent, the S&P 500 added 0.06 per cent, and the Dow moved up 0.17 per cent in the last trading session.

Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Friday, tracking Wall Street gains as investors shrugged off the US government shutdown. Investors are waiting to see how long the shutdown will last to assess the gravity of its economic repercussions.

While China’s Shanghai index added 0.52 per cent, and Shenzhen advanced 0.35 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei added 1.44 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 0.84 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi added 2.70 per cent.

Analysts said that the central bank’s bold initiatives to boost credit growth in the economy can positively sustain the momentum in the market, particularly in Bank Nifty. However, the sustained selling by FIIs in the market is unlikely to sustain this momentum.

FIIs are likely to further accelerate selling since the market construct provides them the opportunity to sell aggressively. Robust buying from DIIs can provide some support to the market, particularly in large-cap auto stocks, which have strong fundamental support now, they added.

In the last trading session on Wednesday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 1,605 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 2,916 crore.

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