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As capital becomes expensive, startup funding takes a hit

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3 years ago

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When capital was free, the best performing companies were capital consumptive. As capital has gotten expensive, these have become the worst performing companies, global private equity fund, Sequoia said in a recent meet with the community of founders.

As interest rates rise, valuations of cash guzzling companies and startups are being hammered and funding is drying up globally, and in India.

VC/start-up investments in India in April 2022 declined by 50 per cent year-on-year to $1.6 billion across 82 deals, according to the IVCA-EY monthly PE/VC roundup.

Vivek Soni, Partner and National Leader Private Equity Services, EY said the US Fed has started tightening monetary policy with a 50 bps interest rate hike and business risk premium/discount rates have gone up globally, which has had a significant negative impact on valuations of listed loss-making but growth-oriented start-ups. This is expected to have a spillover effect on the private capital side as well. Both start-up valuations and deal closures could see some slowdown in the coming few months.

According to the IVCA-EY monthly PE/VC roundup, April 2022 recorded investments worth $5.5 billion across 117 deals, including 16 large deals worth $4 billion. Exits recorded $1.2 billion across 13 deals, including six open market exits worth $483 million and one buyback worth $330 million.

Soni said April 2022 recorded US$5.5 billion in PE/VC investments, 27 per cent lower than April 2021 and 11 per cent higher than March 2022. Growth investments were back at the top after nine months with more than 2x growth y-o-y while monthly start-up investments recorded a 50 per cent y-o-y decline.

“The best performing assets ‘when rate expectations were falling – including technology, biotechnology, and recent IPOs- have been the worst performing assets. Simply put, the world is reassessing how business models fare in a world where capital has a cost and reconsidering how much credit to give companies for profits many years into the future”, Sequoia said.

“We are experiencing the 3rd largest Nasdaq drawdown in 20 years. It’s been an incredibly volatile last 6 months in the tech market. While it’s not quite 2001 or 2008, the Nasdaq is down 28 per cent since last November”, it added.

Sixty one per cent of all software, internet and fintech companies are trading below pre-pandemic 2020 prices. They’ve lost more than two years of stock price appreciation That’s despite many of these companies more than doubling both revenue and profitability.

One third are trading below COVID lows, when uncertainty and fear was peaking. Even more sobering, nearly one-third of these companies not only trade below their pre-pandemic stock prices, but they are now trading below the bottoms reached during March 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The market is now pricing in lower values for many stocks than in March 2020 at the time of peak uncertainty. The market bounced back quickly from those lows with the help of an unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal policy. Now with both those tools being withdrawn and moving from tailwinds to headwinds, the market is clearly indicating that the valuation framework over the last two years is no longer relevant with the removal of free money, Sequoia said.

It added that growth at all costs is no longer being rewarded. The era of being rewarded for hypergrowth at any costs is quickly coming to an end. EV/Revenue multiples across software have been cut in half over the last 6 months and now trade below the 10-year average.

Growth-adjusted multiples have fallen even further and are well below the 10-year average and pushing the 10-year lows. With the macro uncertainty around inflation, interest rates, and war, investors are looking for companies that can produce near-term certainty. Capital is becoming more expensive while the macro is becoming less certain, leading to investors de-prioritizing and paying up less for growth, Sequoia said.

The focus is shifting to companies with profitability. The focus on near-term momentum is often shifting toward companies Who can demonstrate current profitability. While the Nasdaq is down, Morgan Stanley’s unprofitable tech index is down 64 per cent. With the cost of capital (both debt and equity) rising, the market is signaling a strong preference for companies who can generate cash today, Sequoia said.

Cheap capital is not coming to the rescue. Unlike prior periods, sources of cheap capital are not coming to save the day. Crossover hedge funds, which have been very active in private investing over the last few years and have been one of the lowest cost sources of capital, are tending to wounds in their public portfolios which have been hit hard, Sequoia said.

Many don’t even have the capacity to invest, as the drawdown in their public portfolios has created an imbalance in their hybrid funds where their private investments (which have not been as dramatically marked down) represent more than the maximum private capacity within their funds, Sequoia said.

Shivam Bajaj, Founder & CEO, Avener Capital said alarmingly for the Startup ecosystem, private equity and venture capital investments declined by 25 per cent-30 per cent M-o-M in April 2022. Additionally, glorified startups including Nykaa, Zomato and Paytm continue to erode investor wealth by trading at approximately less than 50 per cent of their listing prices. With more than 6000 employees laid off in 2022 YTD by Indian Startups, capital providers might prefer delaying their plans to deploy their dry powder in expectations of future turnarounds in the industry. However, on the upside, asset-light business models built upon the pillars of consistent revenue generation, which deliver reasonable margins to investors instead of demanding rigorous burn rates, might potentially draw investor interest.

Siddharth Mehta, Founder & CIO, Bay Capital said the easy money policy of the Federal Reserve following the Global Financial crisis and accelerated in many ways at the onset of the pandemic had led to the excess liquidity getting funnelled into financial assets with increased speculative activity in such assets such as crypto currencies and NFT’s, over the last couple of years.

“India has been an equal beneficiary of this liquidity and now with the Fed being behind the curve in addressing inflation concerns and the extraction of liquidity with increased interest rates, it is definitely going to have a knock on effect on funding for early stage and late stage businesses as well”, Mehta said.

“Our view is that incremental capital will be allocated far better; investors will become far more discerning as they should have been; funding cycles will get more drawn out and diligence will be more robust and there will be far greater focus on profitability paths of these businesses. Its also likely that in some instances there will be consolidation and unfortunately mortality as well. The price damage in the public markets has still not fully cascaded down the stage curve and will happen very rapidly now. While this will have a negative impact in the near term, it is our view that over the long term, this will have positive effects as stronger businesses with robust business models, clear paths to profitability, scale and with clear differentiation will come out to be outsized winners”, he said.

Ravindra Bandhakhavi, Partner & Head-Private Equity, Cyril Amarchand Mangaldas says, “The global economic conditions are definitely impacting the funding environment for startups. There is much more emphasis on a proper diligence and a more robust corporate governance framework. Investors are also able to negotiate better rights as companies and startups are keener to have deep pocketed investors backing them at this point. Investors lastly are much focused on a path to profitability than they were before. Overall the more successful startups will still be able to raise funding while others will suffer potentially creating greater M&A opportunities in this space as well this year.”

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Relief for Vodafone Idea as SC allows Centre to reconsider AGR dues issue

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12 hours ago

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October 27, 2025

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New Delhi, Oct 27: In a relief for Vodafone Idea, the Supreme Court on Monday allowed the Centre to reconsider the issue of Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) dues worth Rs 9,450 crore to ease the burden of the loss-making telecom company. The court reasoned that this matter falls in the Union’s policy domain.

The Supreme Court noted that the decision was made keeping in mind the interest of 20 crore consumers of the telecom company.

In a landmark 2019 verdict, the Supreme Court endorsed the Centre’s definition of AGR and allowed the Centre to collect dues worth Rs 92,000 crore which came as a huge setback for telecom majors such as Vodafone and Bharti Airtel.

Vodafone’s latest petition flagged a fresh AGR demand of Rs 9,450 crore raised by the Department of Telecommunications. The petition contended that a substantial portion of the demand pertained to the pre-2017 period, which had already been settled by the Supreme Court.

Solicitor General of India Tushar Mehta told the court that “there is a huge change in circumstances” of the case because the government has infused equity in Vodafone.

“The government’s interest is public interest. There are 20 crore consumers. If this company is to suffer, it would lead to issues for consumers,” he said.

The Supreme Court noted in its order that the Centre is willing to examine the issue. “The government is also willing to reconsider and take an appropriate decision if the court permits. In the peculiar facts, we see no impediment in government reconsidering the issue. We clarify that this is a matter of policy, there is no reason as to why the Union should be prevented from doing so,” the apex court said.

AGR refers to a fee-sharing mechanism under which telecom operators must share a part of their revenue with the Centre as licensing fees and spectrum usage charges. There was a longstanding dispute between telecom companies and the Centre over the definition of AGR. While the telecom giants stressed that AGR should be based just on core services, the Centre argued it should also factor in non-telecom services provided by the telecom giants.

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US has reached a ‘substantial framework’ with China to avert tariffs: US Treasury Secretary Bessent

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15 hours ago

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October 27, 2025

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Washinton, Oct 27: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that he believes the US has reached a framework agreement with China to avoid imposing an additional 100 per cent tariff on Chinese imports.

“I think we’ve reached a substantial framework for the two leaders who will meet next Thursday… that tariffs will be averted,” Bessent said on Sunday to media from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, where President Donald Trump arrived on Saturday for a weeklong Asia diplomacy tour.

Trump is expected to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea later this week.

Earlier, Chinese International Trade Representative Li Chenggang said the US and China had reached “preliminary consensus” on trade issues during discussions in Malaysia, according to Chinese media.

Bessent did not provide details about the framework but said on media that he anticipates the US would get “some kind of deferral” on rare-earth export controls.

The minerals have been central to trade tensions between the top global economies.

Bessent said the framework sets up Trump and Xi “to have a very productive meeting,” adding, “I think it will be fantastic for US citizens, for US farmers, and for our country in general.”

Bessent indicated that an escalation in tariffs on China is “effectively off the table” following what he described as “very good” trade talks with his Chinese counterparts.

President Trump had threatened an additional 100 per cent tariff on China from November 1 over Beijing’s efforts to impose export controls on critical rare earths, ratcheting up tensions between the US and China.

Asked about the status of those tariffs, Bessent told media on Sunday that tariff threat has “gone away” after two days of talks in Malaysia.

“We had a very good two-day meeting. I would believe that the – so it would be an extra 100 per cent from where we are now, and I believe that that is effectively off the table.”

He added, “I would expect that the threat of the 100 per cent has gone away, as has the threat of the immediate imposition of the Chinese initiating a worldwide export control regime.”

US and Chinese trade negotiators reached a “basic consensus” on how to address their “respective concerns,” Chinese state media said on Sunday, following talks between the two sides over the weekend in Kuala Lumpur.

A delegation led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met with US officials including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jameson Greer for the talks, which come days ahead of a highly anticipated meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump.

The two leaders are expected to meet on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea, though Beijing, unlike Washington, has yet to confirm the meeting.

Earlier on Sunday, Bessent said the two sides had “set the stage for the leaders’ meeting” with a “very successful framework for the leaders to discuss”.

“The two sides engaged in candid, in-depth, and constructive exchanges and consultations on major economic and trade issues of mutual concern,” the Chinese state media readout said.

It listed out those issues as including US penalties on China’s maritime logistics and shipbuilding industry, reciprocal tariffs, fentanyl tariffs, agricultural trade, and export controls – a sweeping set of frictions that have set the world’s two largest economies at loggerheads.

“Two sides reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other’s concerns. Both sides agreed to further finalise the specific details and fulfil their respective domestic approval processes,” the readout said.

Trade and tech tensions between the world’s two biggest economies have heightened in recent weeks after the US expanded its export blacklist, hitting China’s access to American high-tech, while China ramped up its own export controls on rare earth minerals.

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Indian markets open higher on positive US-China trade talks

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16 hours ago

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October 27, 2025

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Mumbai, Oct 27: Indian stock markets opened on a positive note on Monday, supported by progress in trade talks between the United States and China.

Investors showed optimism after reports suggested that both countries are close to signing a deal to ease trade tensions.

The Sensex was trading at 84,450, up by 239 points or 0.28 per cent, while the Nifty stood at 25,874, gaining 79 points or 0.30 per cent.

On the weekly timeframe, the index witnessed a correction of nearly 311 points from its high, indicating heightened volatility and profit booking at higher levels.

“A breakdown below 25,670 could trigger weakness toward 25,500–25,400, while on the upside, resistance is placed at 25,950, followed by 26,000 and 26,100,” analysts said.

“Sustaining above these resistance levels will be crucial for the index to resume its upward trajectory,” they added.

Among the top performers on the Sensex were Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, Tech Mahindra, and HDFC Bank, which rose up to 1.4 per cent.

On the other hand, stocks like Infosys, BEL, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Bajaj Finance were among the laggards, falling up to 1.4 per cent.

Broader markets also traded in the green, with the Nifty MidCap index rising 0.46 per cent and the Nifty SmallCap index up 0.23 per cent.

The rally in domestic equities came after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen said on Sunday that President Trump’s proposed 100 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods were “off the table.”

He also mentioned that China is expected to increase soybean imports and delay restrictions on rare earth exports, easing global trade concerns.

All sectoral indices on the NSE were trading higher, with the Nifty Realty index leading the gains, up by 1 per cent.

Experts said that positive global cues and optimism around the US-China trade deal lifted market sentiment, helping Indian equities start the week on a strong note.

“Comments from the US treasury Secretary Scot Bessent that there is a “substantial framework for trade negotiations with China” indicate that a US-China trade deal is on the cards,” analysts said.

“For India, the fundamentals are also turning positive with brisk festival season sales and reports of a smart pick up in capital spending by the private sector. This long awaited trend has significant positive implications for India’s growth and stock market,” they mentioned.

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