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As capital becomes expensive, startup funding takes a hit

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3 years ago

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When capital was free, the best performing companies were capital consumptive. As capital has gotten expensive, these have become the worst performing companies, global private equity fund, Sequoia said in a recent meet with the community of founders.

As interest rates rise, valuations of cash guzzling companies and startups are being hammered and funding is drying up globally, and in India.

VC/start-up investments in India in April 2022 declined by 50 per cent year-on-year to $1.6 billion across 82 deals, according to the IVCA-EY monthly PE/VC roundup.

Vivek Soni, Partner and National Leader Private Equity Services, EY said the US Fed has started tightening monetary policy with a 50 bps interest rate hike and business risk premium/discount rates have gone up globally, which has had a significant negative impact on valuations of listed loss-making but growth-oriented start-ups. This is expected to have a spillover effect on the private capital side as well. Both start-up valuations and deal closures could see some slowdown in the coming few months.

According to the IVCA-EY monthly PE/VC roundup, April 2022 recorded investments worth $5.5 billion across 117 deals, including 16 large deals worth $4 billion. Exits recorded $1.2 billion across 13 deals, including six open market exits worth $483 million and one buyback worth $330 million.

Soni said April 2022 recorded US$5.5 billion in PE/VC investments, 27 per cent lower than April 2021 and 11 per cent higher than March 2022. Growth investments were back at the top after nine months with more than 2x growth y-o-y while monthly start-up investments recorded a 50 per cent y-o-y decline.

“The best performing assets ‘when rate expectations were falling – including technology, biotechnology, and recent IPOs- have been the worst performing assets. Simply put, the world is reassessing how business models fare in a world where capital has a cost and reconsidering how much credit to give companies for profits many years into the future”, Sequoia said.

“We are experiencing the 3rd largest Nasdaq drawdown in 20 years. It’s been an incredibly volatile last 6 months in the tech market. While it’s not quite 2001 or 2008, the Nasdaq is down 28 per cent since last November”, it added.

Sixty one per cent of all software, internet and fintech companies are trading below pre-pandemic 2020 prices. They’ve lost more than two years of stock price appreciation That’s despite many of these companies more than doubling both revenue and profitability.

One third are trading below COVID lows, when uncertainty and fear was peaking. Even more sobering, nearly one-third of these companies not only trade below their pre-pandemic stock prices, but they are now trading below the bottoms reached during March 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The market is now pricing in lower values for many stocks than in March 2020 at the time of peak uncertainty. The market bounced back quickly from those lows with the help of an unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal policy. Now with both those tools being withdrawn and moving from tailwinds to headwinds, the market is clearly indicating that the valuation framework over the last two years is no longer relevant with the removal of free money, Sequoia said.

It added that growth at all costs is no longer being rewarded. The era of being rewarded for hypergrowth at any costs is quickly coming to an end. EV/Revenue multiples across software have been cut in half over the last 6 months and now trade below the 10-year average.

Growth-adjusted multiples have fallen even further and are well below the 10-year average and pushing the 10-year lows. With the macro uncertainty around inflation, interest rates, and war, investors are looking for companies that can produce near-term certainty. Capital is becoming more expensive while the macro is becoming less certain, leading to investors de-prioritizing and paying up less for growth, Sequoia said.

The focus is shifting to companies with profitability. The focus on near-term momentum is often shifting toward companies Who can demonstrate current profitability. While the Nasdaq is down, Morgan Stanley’s unprofitable tech index is down 64 per cent. With the cost of capital (both debt and equity) rising, the market is signaling a strong preference for companies who can generate cash today, Sequoia said.

Cheap capital is not coming to the rescue. Unlike prior periods, sources of cheap capital are not coming to save the day. Crossover hedge funds, which have been very active in private investing over the last few years and have been one of the lowest cost sources of capital, are tending to wounds in their public portfolios which have been hit hard, Sequoia said.

Many don’t even have the capacity to invest, as the drawdown in their public portfolios has created an imbalance in their hybrid funds where their private investments (which have not been as dramatically marked down) represent more than the maximum private capacity within their funds, Sequoia said.

Shivam Bajaj, Founder & CEO, Avener Capital said alarmingly for the Startup ecosystem, private equity and venture capital investments declined by 25 per cent-30 per cent M-o-M in April 2022. Additionally, glorified startups including Nykaa, Zomato and Paytm continue to erode investor wealth by trading at approximately less than 50 per cent of their listing prices. With more than 6000 employees laid off in 2022 YTD by Indian Startups, capital providers might prefer delaying their plans to deploy their dry powder in expectations of future turnarounds in the industry. However, on the upside, asset-light business models built upon the pillars of consistent revenue generation, which deliver reasonable margins to investors instead of demanding rigorous burn rates, might potentially draw investor interest.

Siddharth Mehta, Founder & CIO, Bay Capital said the easy money policy of the Federal Reserve following the Global Financial crisis and accelerated in many ways at the onset of the pandemic had led to the excess liquidity getting funnelled into financial assets with increased speculative activity in such assets such as crypto currencies and NFT’s, over the last couple of years.

“India has been an equal beneficiary of this liquidity and now with the Fed being behind the curve in addressing inflation concerns and the extraction of liquidity with increased interest rates, it is definitely going to have a knock on effect on funding for early stage and late stage businesses as well”, Mehta said.

“Our view is that incremental capital will be allocated far better; investors will become far more discerning as they should have been; funding cycles will get more drawn out and diligence will be more robust and there will be far greater focus on profitability paths of these businesses. Its also likely that in some instances there will be consolidation and unfortunately mortality as well. The price damage in the public markets has still not fully cascaded down the stage curve and will happen very rapidly now. While this will have a negative impact in the near term, it is our view that over the long term, this will have positive effects as stronger businesses with robust business models, clear paths to profitability, scale and with clear differentiation will come out to be outsized winners”, he said.

Ravindra Bandhakhavi, Partner & Head-Private Equity, Cyril Amarchand Mangaldas says, “The global economic conditions are definitely impacting the funding environment for startups. There is much more emphasis on a proper diligence and a more robust corporate governance framework. Investors are also able to negotiate better rights as companies and startups are keener to have deep pocketed investors backing them at this point. Investors lastly are much focused on a path to profitability than they were before. Overall the more successful startups will still be able to raise funding while others will suffer potentially creating greater M&A opportunities in this space as well this year.”

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‘Its Prime Real Estate’: Anand Mahindra Expresses Awe At Grandiose Of Brabus Big Boy 1200

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1 day ago

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December 21, 2024

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In the City of Dreams that is Mumbai, one of the biggest ‘dreams’ of most who live in the metropolis is to find an abode, that they can call it their own. Real estate in Mumbai is known for its sky-high pricing, with figures of Rs 10-15 crore not surprising anyone.

The Motorhome

Space is a major issue in city, given the paucity of it, in a region that encompasses millions. However, what happens when the space is not only available but also mobile? That is precisely what a ‘motorhome’.

It may not been the most commonly seen or discussed avenue in this part of the world, but in other parts of the world, particularly in the US, an RV or recreational vehicle is the way of life, either by choice or by circumstance.

Mahindra Group chairman, Anand Mahindra recently reacted to one such motorhome. In a post on X, he shared a minute-long clipping of the Brabus Big Boy 1200. This is an uber-luxe, profligate motorhome manufactured by the German automobile company Brabus.

Mahindra, while reacting to the video of a person showing around the bus said, That’s not transport. It’s prime real estate.”

And one may arguably agree with Mahindra on this. The vehicle is extravagant and has a length of 12 meters or 39.4 ft and over 30 square meters or 320 sq ft. For context, the average size of homes in city of Mumbai hovers around 400-700 sq ft.

What Are The Features Of This Motorhome?

In addition, the vehicle also has two electrically extendable slide-outs on each side. These slide-outs can extend the bedroom and saloon to a width of 4.50 meters.

In addition, the motorhome also consists of a double bed measuring 160 x 200 centimeters.

A closet is integrated into the rear wall of the vehicle.

For amusement, the vehicle also has a desk and a 43-inch 4K television. Here one could watch TV programs that have been made available on the system play games on the integrated Playstation 5 system.

In addition, one can also connect to the internet through the Starlink system.

When it comes to the vehicle, it runs on a12.8-liter six-cylinder turbodiesel engine. This engine can deliver 390 kW / 530 hp and can generate a maximum torque of 2,600 Nm.

The vehicle is priced at around USD 1.5 million or a whopping Rs 12 crore.

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Business

Maha will play key role in achieving India’s $5 trillion economy goal: Minister Tatkare

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December 21, 2024

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Nagpur, Dec 21: Representing Maharashtra in the pre-Union Budget meeting held in Jaisalmer, Minister Aditi Tatkare on Saturday assured that Maharashtra would play a pivotal role in India’s journey towards becoming a $5 trillion economy.

She emphasised the need for special financial assistance to the state in the upcoming Union Budget.

Minister Tatkare presented Maharashtra’s vision, highlighting its strategic role in realising the Prime Minister’s goal of a ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047.

Minister Tatkare outlined several critical issues and proposals for inclusion in the Union Budget. She urged the finance minister for central assistance for state Capital Investment by enhancing the allocation under the Scheme for Special Assistance to States for Capital Investment.

She emphasised the need for streamlining fund disbursement timelines to provide qualifying states with a minimum one-year utilisation window.

In the wake of rapid urbanisation, Minister Tatkare called for central support to tackle the challenges faced by the state.

“Maharashtra, with urbanisation expected to surpass 50 per cent in the upcoming census, faces challenges in resource mobilisation for urban local bodies (ULBs). The state government urges support for ULBs to access long-term loans for planned urban development and infrastructure enhancement,” she said.

Under the MukhyaMantri Saur Krushi Vahini Yojana 2.0, aimed at solarising agricultural feeders, Minister Tatkare sought increased targets and funding allocations for Maharashtra.

She requested expansion of Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) capacity from 500 MWh to 9,000 MWh to meet the state’s energy storage goals.

In order to further boost the modernisation of the home department, Minister Tatkare sought funds on a 60:40 basis, for projects such as digital forensic labs, mobile forensic vans, AMBIS systems, and the Cyber Security Project (Rs 837.86 crore).

She highlighted the need for funding major initiatives like Dial 112 emergency services integration and Maharashtra Police Station CCTV projects.

She urged financial support for faster case disposal through enhanced infrastructure for the judiciary.

She requested funding for constructing the Bombay High Court Complex in Bandra (East), estimated at Rs 3,750 crore.

Further, to push the implementation of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) economic master plan, Minister Tatkare proposed a special package.

The master plan is aligning with NITI Aayog’s vision to transform MMR into a national growth hub by 2030.

According to NITI Aayog, the MMR has a potential to increase its GDP to $300 billion by 2030 from the present level of $140 billion.

The Centre’s public policy think tank has asked the Maharashtra government to concentrate on seven growth drivers and attract investment of $125-135 billion from the private sector to achieve the target.

In a bid to push the state government’s ambitious plan to make Maharashtra drought-free, the state government has sought central government support to include state-funded river-linking projects like Wainganga-Nalganga and Damanganga-Godavari under the National Interlinking of Rivers Scheme.

Further, the state government appealed to the Centre to ease revenue expenditure pressures to create fiscal space for capital projects and establish a ‘Kisan Vishesh Sahayata Nidhi’ to compensate farmers affected by trade policy interventions.

The state government also appealed for the enhancement of funding for ongoing schemes like the Jal Jeevan Mission and financial assistance for disaster-affected areas.

Minister Tatkare said the comprehensive representation highlighted Maharashtra’s ambitions and challenges, ensuring the state’s priorities were well-articulated for the Union Budget deliberations.

She reiterated Maharashtra’s commitment to becoming a cornerstone of India’s economic growth and development trajectory.

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Business

Domestic stock markets to end 2024 on positive note, Nifty clocks 13 pc gain

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December 21, 2024

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New Delhi, Dec 21: Riding on resilient economic growth, the domestic stock markets are ending 2024 on a positive note, with Nifty registering a 13 per cent gain (year-to-date) — its ninth consecutive year of positive gains, a Motilal Oswal Wealth Management report said on Saturday.

The first half of the year saw robust corporate earnings, a surge in domestic flows, and a resilient macro landscape, driving the Nifty to an all-time high of 26,277 in September.

In fact, the markets navigated significant events, such several global geo-political issues, General Elections and Budget in India, and any dips were swiftly met with strong buying activity, the report mentioned.

“The year 2025 could unfold as a tale of two halves. The first half may continue to see market consolidation, while a recovery could take place in the second half,” it added.

In the last two months, the market has corrected 11 per cent from its all-time high, amid selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) due to a combination of domestic and global factors.

Going forward, the Indian markets are likely to face significant influences from a combination of global and domestic economic events.

The anticipated rate cut by the RBI in February, the ongoing trend of US rate cuts, and the expectations surrounding trade policy changes post Donald Trump taking over as US President in January will contribute to market volatility.

“Additionally, the Union Budget in February will offer important signals to the market. With a fragile global economic environment and mixed macroeconomic factors at home, the market is expected to remain in consolidation mode in the near term,” the report noted.

Earnings are expected to recover in H2 FY25, driven by increased rural spending, a buoyant wedding season, and pickup in government spending.

“We further expect earnings to gain momentum, delivering a 16 per cent CAGR over FY25-27E. We remain optimistic about the long-term trend, given the strength of corporate India’s balance sheets and the prospects for robust, profitable growth,” the report said.

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