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After war with Azerbaijan, Armenia taps India for military hardware

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Recently in June, a defence delegation from the Republic of Armenia visited India, meeting with their counterparts here. The delegation came armed with a shopping list. While little is known about its contents, drones have been confirmed to have figured prominently on the list. But not drones alone, an official confirmed without going into any further details. This is not the first time that Armenia has evinced interest in Indian military hardware. In 2020, it concluded a deal with India worth 40 million for the supply of four indigenously built weapon-locating radars. The SWATHI radars have been developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).

Since then, Armenia’s defence requirement has grown exponentially. “The Karabakh war made us rethink our defence needs,” said an Armenian official who did not want to be named. The war referred to the one the tiny South Caucasian nation fought with Azerbaijan over the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. For twenty years the Armenians had held the ethnic Armenian enclave which technically formed part of Azerbaijan, as a result of the controversial borders drawn up during the erstwhile Soviet Union where the exercise was primarily based on keeping individual republics dependent on Moscow.

However, in 2020 Armenia lost all the territory to Azerbaijan, including the corridor that connected Armenia to the enclave. Though a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaties Organisation (CSTO), Russia refused to intervene in the war since it considered Nagorno-Karabakh to technically not be ‘Armenian territory’. Russian defence equipment also proved not to be a match for the Turkish equipment that was deployed, especially Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones. Turkish military counsellors and arms won the war for Azerbaijan. “Russia intervened only when it felt Turkey would become a permanent presence in the region,” said the official bitterly. The result – a Russian peace keeping force in Nagorno-Karabakh. But the war also showed the limits of Western support and help for Armenia, as well as the limits of Armenian soft power -primarily its diaspora abroad, which is a source of pride for many Armenians. Armenia, even as located in a hostile neighbourhood, remains dependent on Russia. And Russia now remains focused on Ukraine.

The war has also isolated Armenia in other ways, by way of few foreign investments, decline in trade and commerce, exacerbated by the pandemic. Cash strapped Armenia has been unable to modernise its industrial base or step up its R and D. Armenian analysts bemoan the fact that the country has been unable to take advantage of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and coveted Chinese investments seemed to have bypassed the tiny country even as rivals Azerbaijan and Turkey have apparently benefitted. It is another matter that along with investments Armenia has also escaped the famous Chinese debt trap unlike similarly cash strapped Tajikistan, for instance. But its bilateral trade with China amounting to $873 USD is heavily tilted in favour of the latter. It would also be interesting to know how Armenian analysts view events in Sri Lanka.

This makes the situation very favourable for India. India’s ties with Armenia are civilizational, thanks to its diaspora, Armenia and India continue to share a unique bond. High profile visits have characterized bilateral relations, and new life was breathed into the relationship beginning with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Armenian President Nikol Pashashian in New York in September on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. India sees Armenia not only as a friend but a good counterweight to Turkey whose President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been particularly belligerent on the Kashmir issue, and followed a number of policies inimical to India, as well as to Azerbaijan, closely allied with Turkey and Pakistan.

Armenia is strategically located bordering Russia, Iran, Turkey. It is a significant part of multimodal trade routes. The Armenian North South Road Corridor is being developed to connect the Black Sea ports through the territory of Armenia and Georgia and further to Europe.

The implementation of the Project is expected to improve Europe – Caucasus – Asia road communication at the intersection of West Asia and East Europe. During his visit to Yerevan last year in October, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar pledged his support for the corridor. Earlier in 2021, Armenia was included in the virtual conference to commemorate the Chabahar Port. Its North South Corridor easily connects to the International North South Transport Corridor that India is involved in together with Russia and Iran. The first freight recently arrived through the INSTC from Russia to India. The Armenian Road Corridor becomes a natural part of the INSTC, which India has pitched for further linking to the Chabahar Port which it is helping develop.

This offers a valuable option to the BRI. India must therefore seize the opportunity to direct investments to the country, which will help to both develop the corridor, currently being funded by amongst others the Asian Development Bank, as well as resuscitate Armenia’s flailing economy. While China’s Confucius Institutes have made inroads and become quickly popular with Armenians, Indian soft power through Bollywood, Indian cuisine, and the centuries old Armenian diaspora in India has an edge. But it needs to be backed up by equally strong investments and trade. Current bilateral trade between India and Armenia hovers around a paltry $ 234 million. Of this Armenia enjoys the balance of trade but its main exports are minerals and metals. It is seeking to set up its manufacturing base and Indian companies and entrepreneurs with enormous experience can help in this.

Together with defence, trade, and investments, Armenia can become a strategically significant partner for India, where India can set up bases and a commercial and defence hub for joint manufacture and Indian exports beyond. Located in Russia’s sphere of influence, this is an additional advantage for India. Any Indian bases there should not be irksome to Russia, even as it offers an alternative to Armenia and will preempt China’s expanding footprint.

International News

Vance says Iran talks ‘going well’ in Doha

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Washington, July 2: US Vice President JD Vance said that negotiations with Iran in Doha were “going well”, while warning that President Donald Trump would not hesitate to use military force again if Tehran resumed its nuclear programme or attacked commercial shipping.

Speaking to reporters before departing aboard Air Force Two after visiting Naval Air Station Oceana in Virginia on Wednesday (local time), Vance said negotiators from the United States, Iran, Qatar and other countries were discussing the next steps following recent US military action against Iranian targets.

“Right now the negotiators are sitting down with the Iranians, with the Qataris and with others in Doha,” Vance said. “Right now the talks are going well. It’s still pretty early, but talks are going well.”

He said the immediate focus was to ensure commercial shipping continued moving safely through the region.

“Commercial traffic really does… It’s already started in an amazing direction. We’ve got now oil at $68. We’ve got gas prices starting to come down,” he said. “We’re worried about the nuclear issue. We’re going to start talking about that.”

Vance said the Trump administration would continue negotiations but maintained that military options remained available if Iran reversed course.

“What I can commit to is the President’s not going to send our military back in unless he has to, unless there’s a clearly defined purpose for it,” he said.

“If they try to rebuild their nuclear programme, if they try to start shooting at commercial vessels again, that’s going to change our calculus.”

He added that Trump had instructed his team to pursue diplomacy from what he described as a position of strength.

“What the President has said is go and make a deal, go and negotiate in good faith, and that’s what he’s empowered us to do,” Vance said.

Asked about divisions within the Iranian leadership, Vance said there appeared to be growing support inside Tehran for improving relations with the West and neighbouring Gulf states.

“In the Iranian system, like a lot of places, you’ve got people who actually recognise the last 47 years of their government has been a mistake and that they need to change their relationship with the United States, with Europe, with the Gulf Arab countries,” he said.

“And then you’ve got a few people who are still kind of attached to the old ways.”

He said Washington believed “we see a lot of momentum for the people who are trying to turn over a new leaf” and would therefore continue giving diplomacy “as much of a chance to succeed as possible.”

However, he reiterated that any attempt by Iran to restart sensitive nuclear activities or restrict international monitoring would trigger a different US response.

“If they try to rebuild that nuclear programme, if they refuse to let inspections in, if they… resume shooting at commercial vessels… then obviously, the President still has a lot of options on the table,” he said.

Vance also declined to speculate about the 2028 presidential election after being asked about comments from Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

“I don’t think much about 2028,” he said. “My attitude is let’s do a good job now. Let’s continue to try to bank some wins for the American people. We can worry about the future when the future comes.”

On the Supreme Court, Vance said he believed Justice Amy Coney Barrett had “made a mistake” in a recent birthright citizenship ruling, adding that “sometimes the Supreme Court makes mistakes” and that the administration would “try to correct that mistake.”

He also dismissed speculation over a possible retirement by Justice Samuel Alito, saying any decision would rest entirely with the justice.

The Doha negotiations follow recent US military strikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities ordered by President Trump after tensions escalated in the Gulf. The administration has since shifted its focus to diplomacy, with Qatar playing a key mediating role between Washington and Tehran.

The talks come amid broader international efforts to reduce tensions in the region, restore confidence in maritime security and prevent further escalation over Iran’s nuclear programme. The United States has maintained that diplomacy remains its preferred course but insists it will act if Iran resumes activities it considers a threat to regional or global security.

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Iran not to enter talks with US unless MoU’s certain provisions fulfilled, says top Iranian negotiator

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Tehran, July 1: Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said Iran will not enter negotiations with the United States on a final agreement unless certain paragraphs of a recently signed peace memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the two sides are implemented.

Qalibaf, also the head of Iran’s negotiating team, made the remarks in an interview with state-run IRIB TV while elaborating on the latest developments pertaining to the implementation of the peace MoU and talks with the United States.

He said Iran’s recent trip to Switzerland sought to implement the MoU provisions for ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, lifting the US naval blockade, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, issuing US waivers for Iranian crude oil exports, and releasing frozen Iranian assets, Xinhua news agency reported.

Unless these five preliminary paragraphs are fulfilled, the other paragraphs’ implementation will not begin, Qalibaf said.

He said Iran, the United States and Lebanon agreed to form a joint committee to enforce the ceasefire, ensure the war’s end in Lebanon, and uphold Lebanese sovereignty, adding that Iran and the United States, two of the three parties, already named their representatives.

Iran both pursues the path of dialogue and responds with force wherever necessary, he added.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said Iran has agreed not to acquire a nuclear weapon ahead of fresh negotiations in Doha, expressing confidence that the US was making progress both diplomatically and militarily while insisting Tehran would not be allowed to develop nuclear arms.

Speaking in the Oval Office before signing a presidential memorandum on vehicle repairs, Trump said officials were already travelling to Qatar for talks scheduled on Tuesday.

“There’ll be a meeting on that tomorrow, in Doha… we’ll see how that goes,” Trump said. “The meeting in Doha is going to be perhaps important, perhaps not. We’re going to find out.”

The President struck an optimistic tone about the negotiations, saying the US had gained the upper hand after recent military action against Iran’s nuclear programme.

On June 18, Iran and the United States signed the MoU on ending the war in the region. On June 22, technical negotiations between Iran and the United States began in Switzerland following high-level consultations between Iranian and US delegations the previous day with the mediation of Pakistan and Qatar.

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India-US ties gather pace as trade deal nears, focus shifts to AI, defence

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Washington, June 30: Senior US and Indian officials projected growing confidence in the India-US strategic partnership, saying a long-awaited bilateral trade agreement is nearing completion as the two countries deepen cooperation in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, defence manufacturing and resilient supply chains.

The broad consensus emerged at the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum (USISPF) Leadership Summit, where officials from both governments, lawmakers and business leaders described the relationship as entering a new phase driven by technology, investment and shared strategic interests.

US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor said negotiations on a bilateral trade agreement had entered their final stage.

“Most of this deal is complete,” Gor said. “There’s a few items that remain from both sides, but it’s in the last one or 2 per cent of that deal.” He said both governments were working to conclude the agreement after nearly 18 months of negotiations and described it as a “win-win situation” for both countries.

Gor also dismissed suggestions that bilateral ties had weakened, saying cooperation across trade, defence and people-to-people exchanges remained strong. He announced plans for a meeting of Quad foreign ministers in the Philippines in the coming weeks and said the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi had helped attract $20.5 billion in new investment into the United States this year.

India’s Ambassador to the United States, Vinay Mohan Kwatra said India’s economic transformation had positioned it as “an indispensable anchor” of global growth, stability and trusted partnerships. He said sustained reforms, manufacturing expansion and investments in advanced technologies had placed India on course to become a $7 trillion economy by the end of the decade.

Kwatra identified biotechnology, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and quantum technologies as the next frontiers of India-U.S. cooperation, while saying the two countries’ goal of expanding bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 would depend on closer integration of supply chains, investment, manufacturing and skilled talent.

Technology competition with China featured prominently throughout the summit.

Jacob Helberg, the US Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy and the Environment, described India as “the only country on earth that fundamentally rivals China” in engineering talent and called it America’s most important long-term partner in building trusted technology ecosystems.

Helberg said Washington wanted to diversify critical technology supply chains beyond China while working with India to develop a shared artificial intelligence developer ecosystem.

In his opening remarks, USISPF President Mukesh Aghi said American companies were quietly reducing dependence on China while expanding manufacturing and research operations in India.

The summit also underscored bipartisan support in Washington for closer ties with New Delhi.

Republican Sen. Steve Daines said India and the United States together represented the only combination capable of matching China’s scale in innovation.

Democratic Sen. Mark Warner called India one of America’s “top two or three” strategic partners over the long term. Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna argued that the relationship should ultimately be anchored in shared democratic values as well as expanding defence and economic cooperation.

Former US Ambassador Kenneth Juster placed the current relationship in historical context, describing people-to-people ties as the “secret sauce” that had sustained bilateral relations for decades. He also launched USISPF’s commemorative coffee table book, We the People: 250 Voices that Have Shaped the US-India Relationship.

The discussions reflected a shared assessment that India-US ties have moved well beyond their traditional focus on diplomacy and defence. Officials and business leaders repeatedly pointed to technology, supply chain resilience, manufacturing, energy security and investment as the defining priorities of the relationship’s next phase.

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