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After war with Azerbaijan, Armenia taps India for military hardware

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Recently in June, a defence delegation from the Republic of Armenia visited India, meeting with their counterparts here. The delegation came armed with a shopping list. While little is known about its contents, drones have been confirmed to have figured prominently on the list. But not drones alone, an official confirmed without going into any further details. This is not the first time that Armenia has evinced interest in Indian military hardware. In 2020, it concluded a deal with India worth 40 million for the supply of four indigenously built weapon-locating radars. The SWATHI radars have been developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).

Since then, Armenia’s defence requirement has grown exponentially. “The Karabakh war made us rethink our defence needs,” said an Armenian official who did not want to be named. The war referred to the one the tiny South Caucasian nation fought with Azerbaijan over the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. For twenty years the Armenians had held the ethnic Armenian enclave which technically formed part of Azerbaijan, as a result of the controversial borders drawn up during the erstwhile Soviet Union where the exercise was primarily based on keeping individual republics dependent on Moscow.

However, in 2020 Armenia lost all the territory to Azerbaijan, including the corridor that connected Armenia to the enclave. Though a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaties Organisation (CSTO), Russia refused to intervene in the war since it considered Nagorno-Karabakh to technically not be ‘Armenian territory’. Russian defence equipment also proved not to be a match for the Turkish equipment that was deployed, especially Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones. Turkish military counsellors and arms won the war for Azerbaijan. “Russia intervened only when it felt Turkey would become a permanent presence in the region,” said the official bitterly. The result – a Russian peace keeping force in Nagorno-Karabakh. But the war also showed the limits of Western support and help for Armenia, as well as the limits of Armenian soft power -primarily its diaspora abroad, which is a source of pride for many Armenians. Armenia, even as located in a hostile neighbourhood, remains dependent on Russia. And Russia now remains focused on Ukraine.

The war has also isolated Armenia in other ways, by way of few foreign investments, decline in trade and commerce, exacerbated by the pandemic. Cash strapped Armenia has been unable to modernise its industrial base or step up its R and D. Armenian analysts bemoan the fact that the country has been unable to take advantage of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and coveted Chinese investments seemed to have bypassed the tiny country even as rivals Azerbaijan and Turkey have apparently benefitted. It is another matter that along with investments Armenia has also escaped the famous Chinese debt trap unlike similarly cash strapped Tajikistan, for instance. But its bilateral trade with China amounting to $873 USD is heavily tilted in favour of the latter. It would also be interesting to know how Armenian analysts view events in Sri Lanka.

This makes the situation very favourable for India. India’s ties with Armenia are civilizational, thanks to its diaspora, Armenia and India continue to share a unique bond. High profile visits have characterized bilateral relations, and new life was breathed into the relationship beginning with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Armenian President Nikol Pashashian in New York in September on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. India sees Armenia not only as a friend but a good counterweight to Turkey whose President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been particularly belligerent on the Kashmir issue, and followed a number of policies inimical to India, as well as to Azerbaijan, closely allied with Turkey and Pakistan.

Armenia is strategically located bordering Russia, Iran, Turkey. It is a significant part of multimodal trade routes. The Armenian North South Road Corridor is being developed to connect the Black Sea ports through the territory of Armenia and Georgia and further to Europe.

The implementation of the Project is expected to improve Europe – Caucasus – Asia road communication at the intersection of West Asia and East Europe. During his visit to Yerevan last year in October, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar pledged his support for the corridor. Earlier in 2021, Armenia was included in the virtual conference to commemorate the Chabahar Port. Its North South Corridor easily connects to the International North South Transport Corridor that India is involved in together with Russia and Iran. The first freight recently arrived through the INSTC from Russia to India. The Armenian Road Corridor becomes a natural part of the INSTC, which India has pitched for further linking to the Chabahar Port which it is helping develop.

This offers a valuable option to the BRI. India must therefore seize the opportunity to direct investments to the country, which will help to both develop the corridor, currently being funded by amongst others the Asian Development Bank, as well as resuscitate Armenia’s flailing economy. While China’s Confucius Institutes have made inroads and become quickly popular with Armenians, Indian soft power through Bollywood, Indian cuisine, and the centuries old Armenian diaspora in India has an edge. But it needs to be backed up by equally strong investments and trade. Current bilateral trade between India and Armenia hovers around a paltry $ 234 million. Of this Armenia enjoys the balance of trade but its main exports are minerals and metals. It is seeking to set up its manufacturing base and Indian companies and entrepreneurs with enormous experience can help in this.

Together with defence, trade, and investments, Armenia can become a strategically significant partner for India, where India can set up bases and a commercial and defence hub for joint manufacture and Indian exports beyond. Located in Russia’s sphere of influence, this is an additional advantage for India. Any Indian bases there should not be irksome to Russia, even as it offers an alternative to Armenia and will preempt China’s expanding footprint.

International News

Rubio says Hamas disarmament key to Gaza rebuild

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Washington, June 3: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that reconstruction of Gaza cannot move forward unless Hamas is demilitarised, arguing that governments and investors will not commit billions of dollars to rebuilding the territory while the militant group retains military capabilities.

At a Congressional hearing Rubio defended the Trump administration’s Gaza strategy amid criticism from Democratic lawmakers who questioned progress on a broader peace and reconstruction plan.

“The goal now is to demilitarise Hamas,” Rubio said. “That is the impediment that’s holding up the rest of it.”

The Secretary said international discussions on Gaza’s future continue, including efforts to secure financial commitments for reconstruction and establish a new governing structure for the territory.

According to Rubio, donor countries and private investors remain interested in participating in Gaza’s recovery, but security concerns remain the primary obstacle.

“No one is going to invest there as long as Hamas is militarised, because as long as Hamas is militarised, they know that there’s going to be a war in the future,” he said.

Rubio’s comments came during a sharp exchange with Representative Rosa DeLauro, who questioned the status of a broader US-backed peace initiative and expressed concern over worsening humanitarian conditions in Gaza.

The Secretary rejected suggestions that Washington had abandoned efforts to address the crisis.

“No one’s forgotten about it,” Rubio said.

He outlined a vision that would ultimately place Gaza under a non-Hamas Palestinian administration supported by international partners.

“What we want, and I think what the Israelis would ultimately want, is a Gaza that is governed by a non-Hamas” authority, Rubio said.

The Secretary said current discussions focus on creating conditions that would allow an international stabilisation force to enter Gaza and provide security while longer-term political and economic arrangements are developed.

“We should be having or want to have an international stabilisation force that goes in and provides the security,” he said.

Rubio added that several countries in the region are also pressuring Hamas to accept demilitarisation as part of a broader settlement.

“It’s not just the United States that’s complaining about it,” he said. “Many of our partners in the region are pressuring Hamas to enter the demilitarisation phase.”

During the hearing, lawmakers also questioned Rubio about recent comments attributed to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding control of parts of Gaza.

Rubio said such proposals were not part of the plan currently being pursued by Washington.

“That’s not part of this plan,” he said. “This plan doesn’t call for that.”

The Secretary also pushed back against criticism regarding humanitarian assistance, saying the United States had already committed substantial resources to relief efforts in Gaza.

“We spent hundreds of millions of dollars on humanitarian aid in Gaza already,” Rubio said.

The future of Gaza remains one of the most sensitive issues in Middle East diplomacy. International efforts have increasingly focused on securing a political arrangement that would prevent renewed conflict while allowing reconstruction of infrastructure, housing, healthcare facilities and public services damaged during years of fighting.

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International News

US: Federal jury convicts Andrew Left over $21 million stock fraud

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Washington, June 2: A federal jury in Los Angeles has found prominent stock analyst Andrew Left, founder of Citron Research, guilty of orchestrating a years-long scheme that prosecutors said manipulated stock prices and generated at least $21 million in illicit profits by trading against the very recommendations he promoted to investors.

Left, 55, formerly of Beverly Hills and now a resident of Boca Raton, Florida, was convicted of one count of securities fraud scheme and 12 counts of securities fraud after a 15-day trial, according to the US Attorney’s Office for the Central District of California.

Left leveraged his reputation as a market commentator and frequent guest on major business television networks to influence stock prices while secretly positioning himself to profit from short-term market movements, federal prosecutors alleged.

“Left used his TV appearances to disguise his intentions, manipulate the stock market, and pad his pockets,” said First Assistant United States Attorney Bill Essayli. “A fair and transparent securities market is a foundation of our nation’s financial system. We will continue to bring to justice individuals who abuse the public trust placed in financial advisors.”

Patrick Grandy, Assistant Director in Charge of the FBI’s Los Angeles Field Office, said the case highlighted the damage caused by market manipulation.

“Frauds such as the one perpetrated by Left can erode investor confidence which impacts our capital markets,” Grandy said. “While this conviction cannot make up for the significant and emotional harm he inflicted upon his unwitting investors, it does send a message to those who may be looking to profit from similar schemes – think twice because the FBI has a proven track record of rooting out fraudsters who illegally tilt the playing field against honest investors and undermine confidence in our markets.”

According to trial evidence presented in court, Left, operating under the online brand Citron Research, published investment commentary through a website and social media accounts, routinely issued opinions on publicly traded companies, often accompanied by target prices and representations of his own trading positions.

Federal prosecutors alleged that Left knew Citron’s market-moving influence and exploited it. Before publishing commentary, he allegedly built long or short positions in targeted companies, frequently using short-dated options contracts designed to benefit from immediate price swings after his reports were released.

The government said he often closed those positions shortly after publication, sometimes at prices that differed sharply from the longer-term targets he publicly promoted. Behind the scenes, prosecutors argued, he was taking positions opposite to the message he was delivering to investors.

One example presented at trial involved chipmaker Nvidia in November 2018. Prosecutors said Left encouraged a portfolio manager to develop a bullish investment thesis, accumulated positions in the company, and then publicly posted on Citron’s social media account: “Citron buys $NVDA. This is the first time in 2 years stock offers an appealing risk-reward to investors . . . We see $165 before we see $120.” Despite that public projection, prosecutors said he sold his positions less than two hours later, earning more than $960,000 in profit.

The jury acquitted Left on four securities fraud counts related to trades involving four specific companies. He is scheduled to be sentenced on August 31 before US District Judge Virginia A. Phillips. Prosecutors said he faces a statutory maximum sentence of 25 years in federal prison on the securities fraud scheme count and up to 20 years on each securities fraud count.

Citron Research became one of Wall Street’s best-known activist research firms over the past two decades, often publishing reports that challenged valuations of publicly traded companies. Left gained widespread visibility through frequent appearances on financial television networks and developed a substantial following among retail and institutional investors.

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International News

Qatar condemns Israeli settlers’ storming of Al-Aqsa Mosque, terms it ‘violation of international law’

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Doha, June 1: Qatar on Monday condemned the storming of Al-Aqsa Mosque by Israeli extremists, terming their actions “flagrant violation of international law and unacceptable provocation of the feelings of millions of Muslims around the world.”

It stated that Al-Aqsa Mosque is a place of worship of Muslims and all unilateral actions aimed at altering the historical and legal status quo in Jerusalem and its sanctities are null and void under international law.

“The State of Qatar condemns the storming of the blessed Al-Aqsa Mosque by Israeli extremists, along with the provocative actions carried out under the protection of the occupation forces, describing it as a flagrant violation of international law, an unacceptable provocation of the feelings of millions of Muslims around the world, and a dangerous attempt to impose a new reality in the occupied Jerusalem and its Islamic and Christian sanctities,” the Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.

“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stresses that Al-Aqsa Mosque is an exclusively Muslim place of worship and that all unilateral measures aimed at altering the historical and legal status quo in Jerusalem and its sanctities are null and void under international law,” it added.

Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned that the continuation of such violations and repeated provocations could cause further violence and escalation in the region, undermining prospects for de-escalation and stability.

“The Ministry warns that the continuation of such violations and repeated provocations could fuel further violence and escalation in the region, undermining prospects for de-escalation and stability. It renews its call on the international community to act urgently and compel Israel, as the occupying power, to stop its ongoing violations against the Palestinian people and their holy sites and to comply with relevant international resolutions,” the statement said.

“The Ministry also reiterates the State of Qatar’s firm and supportive stance on the Palestinian cause and the steadfastness of the brotherly Palestinian people, based on ending the occupation and enabling the Palestinian people to attain their legitimate rights, foremost among them the establishment of an independent state on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital,” it added.

Qatar’s statement comes after settlers raised Israeli flags on the steps leading to the Dome of the Rock and sang Israeli national anthem under police protection. The settlers the mosque from Al-Maghrabah Gate, which is fully controlled by Israeli authorities, Arab News reported.

Frequent clashes, including Israeli settler raids and restrictions on Muslim worshippers, have been witnessed in the Al-Aqsa Mosque since East Jerusalem was occupied in June 1967, Arab News reported. The mosque is administered by Jordan’s Ministry of Awqaf, which has the legal authority to manage the compound and control access. Jordan warned settlers against taking actions that aim to create a new reality that would temporally and spatially divide the landmark.

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