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After war with Azerbaijan, Armenia taps India for military hardware

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Recently in June, a defence delegation from the Republic of Armenia visited India, meeting with their counterparts here. The delegation came armed with a shopping list. While little is known about its contents, drones have been confirmed to have figured prominently on the list. But not drones alone, an official confirmed without going into any further details. This is not the first time that Armenia has evinced interest in Indian military hardware. In 2020, it concluded a deal with India worth 40 million for the supply of four indigenously built weapon-locating radars. The SWATHI radars have been developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).

Since then, Armenia’s defence requirement has grown exponentially. “The Karabakh war made us rethink our defence needs,” said an Armenian official who did not want to be named. The war referred to the one the tiny South Caucasian nation fought with Azerbaijan over the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. For twenty years the Armenians had held the ethnic Armenian enclave which technically formed part of Azerbaijan, as a result of the controversial borders drawn up during the erstwhile Soviet Union where the exercise was primarily based on keeping individual republics dependent on Moscow.

However, in 2020 Armenia lost all the territory to Azerbaijan, including the corridor that connected Armenia to the enclave. Though a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaties Organisation (CSTO), Russia refused to intervene in the war since it considered Nagorno-Karabakh to technically not be ‘Armenian territory’. Russian defence equipment also proved not to be a match for the Turkish equipment that was deployed, especially Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones. Turkish military counsellors and arms won the war for Azerbaijan. “Russia intervened only when it felt Turkey would become a permanent presence in the region,” said the official bitterly. The result – a Russian peace keeping force in Nagorno-Karabakh. But the war also showed the limits of Western support and help for Armenia, as well as the limits of Armenian soft power -primarily its diaspora abroad, which is a source of pride for many Armenians. Armenia, even as located in a hostile neighbourhood, remains dependent on Russia. And Russia now remains focused on Ukraine.

The war has also isolated Armenia in other ways, by way of few foreign investments, decline in trade and commerce, exacerbated by the pandemic. Cash strapped Armenia has been unable to modernise its industrial base or step up its R and D. Armenian analysts bemoan the fact that the country has been unable to take advantage of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and coveted Chinese investments seemed to have bypassed the tiny country even as rivals Azerbaijan and Turkey have apparently benefitted. It is another matter that along with investments Armenia has also escaped the famous Chinese debt trap unlike similarly cash strapped Tajikistan, for instance. But its bilateral trade with China amounting to $873 USD is heavily tilted in favour of the latter. It would also be interesting to know how Armenian analysts view events in Sri Lanka.

This makes the situation very favourable for India. India’s ties with Armenia are civilizational, thanks to its diaspora, Armenia and India continue to share a unique bond. High profile visits have characterized bilateral relations, and new life was breathed into the relationship beginning with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Armenian President Nikol Pashashian in New York in September on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. India sees Armenia not only as a friend but a good counterweight to Turkey whose President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been particularly belligerent on the Kashmir issue, and followed a number of policies inimical to India, as well as to Azerbaijan, closely allied with Turkey and Pakistan.

Armenia is strategically located bordering Russia, Iran, Turkey. It is a significant part of multimodal trade routes. The Armenian North South Road Corridor is being developed to connect the Black Sea ports through the territory of Armenia and Georgia and further to Europe.

The implementation of the Project is expected to improve Europe – Caucasus – Asia road communication at the intersection of West Asia and East Europe. During his visit to Yerevan last year in October, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar pledged his support for the corridor. Earlier in 2021, Armenia was included in the virtual conference to commemorate the Chabahar Port. Its North South Corridor easily connects to the International North South Transport Corridor that India is involved in together with Russia and Iran. The first freight recently arrived through the INSTC from Russia to India. The Armenian Road Corridor becomes a natural part of the INSTC, which India has pitched for further linking to the Chabahar Port which it is helping develop.

This offers a valuable option to the BRI. India must therefore seize the opportunity to direct investments to the country, which will help to both develop the corridor, currently being funded by amongst others the Asian Development Bank, as well as resuscitate Armenia’s flailing economy. While China’s Confucius Institutes have made inroads and become quickly popular with Armenians, Indian soft power through Bollywood, Indian cuisine, and the centuries old Armenian diaspora in India has an edge. But it needs to be backed up by equally strong investments and trade. Current bilateral trade between India and Armenia hovers around a paltry $ 234 million. Of this Armenia enjoys the balance of trade but its main exports are minerals and metals. It is seeking to set up its manufacturing base and Indian companies and entrepreneurs with enormous experience can help in this.

Together with defence, trade, and investments, Armenia can become a strategically significant partner for India, where India can set up bases and a commercial and defence hub for joint manufacture and Indian exports beyond. Located in Russia’s sphere of influence, this is an additional advantage for India. Any Indian bases there should not be irksome to Russia, even as it offers an alternative to Armenia and will preempt China’s expanding footprint.

International News

Iran signals Hormuz reopening within two days if US meets demands

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Iran signalled that it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume diplomatic negotiations within two days if the United States meets its demands, even as Washington and Tehran exchanged renewed warnings over potential military escalation.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, said on Monday that Iran has reduced the period for implementing the seven-day plan proposed by Tehran in September to two days, in good faith.

He noted, “We have announced that if Iran’s demands are met, the possibility will exist to restore security to the Strait of Hormuz and start the negotiation process in a short period of time,” stressing that all these depend on the American side’s decision on how to proceed regarding the future of the process.

In tandem with the ministry’s announcement, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said Monday that his administration is committed to resolving challenges through dialogue, noting that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has granted the government certain authorities to pursue diplomatic solutions.

He stressed that no one benefits from war, adding that the “enemies” will not be able to make Iran surrender.

Concurrently, Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said consultations mediated by Qatar and Pakistan have become “extremely intensive,” involving frequent delegation visits, phone conversations and message exchanges.

Reaffirming Iran’s readiness for both diplomacy and defense, Araghchi warned that any further military escalation by Washington would draw a “far more bitter and severe” response.

The diplomatic maneuvers unfold amid mixed signals from Washington over its next move on Iran.

Tehran reportedly received a letter from US Vice President JD Vance on Thursday, sent at Trump’s direction, calling for the resumption of peace negotiations. Iran described the shift in Washington’s tone reflected in the letter as “a good sign.”

However, US President Donald Trump on Sunday again threatened to resume military action against Iran “at some point,” telling a campaign rally in Iowa that Washington would eventually have to “give them the hammer.”

He was reportedly urged by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a Saturday phone call to strike Iran “immediately after the midterm elections.” US news outlet Axios reported that Trump preferred to allow negotiations to continue, an approach that has raised concerns for Netanyahu.

Also on Monday, US President Donald Trump said that Tehran wants to make a deal with Washington, and that an agreement could be reached. “They want to make a deal, and that could happen,” said the US president.

Underpinning the ongoing diplomatic maneuvers are concrete military preparations and escalating operational risks across the region.

A senior Iranian commander said on Monday that over 30 million Iranians are receiving general military training to defend the country if needed.

The military mobilisation followed a Saturday statement from Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei instructing senior military commanders to ensure that any threat from the “enemies,” regardless of its nature or scale, would be met with an “immediate and effective” response, without geographical limitations.

On the US side, the Wall Street Journal reported that senior US military officials briefed Trump on Thursday on possible options regarding Iran. The United States had also reportedly urged several Gulf countries to prepare for a possible brief but intense military campaign against Iran following the midterm elections.

Amid mounting military preparations, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated rapidly. The navy of Iran’s Army announced Monday that a “violating” oil tanker caught fire after hitting naval mines in a forbidden region east of the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the vessel had turned off its navigation systems.

Separately, the navy of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps said 11 oil tankers have caught fire or sunk in the strait over the past nine days, following a “demonstrative visit” to the strait by US Central Command chief Brad Cooper on October 25.

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International News

US strikes Iran Qeshm Island near Strait of Hormuz

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The United States attacked Iran’s strategic Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing US officials.

The attacks, carried out on Monday (local time), were the latest in “a series of limited strikes Washington has secretly carried out against the country in recent weeks as President Trump touted the possibility of a diplomatic deal,” the report said.

The United States has been conducting smaller-scale strikes against Iran for several weeks, with explosions reported on social media around Qeshm Island on Monday, according to the report.

Some US officials described the attacks as defensive operations aimed at preventing Iran from freely attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, reports Xinhua news agency.

Unlike earlier in the conflict, the United States has not publicly announced the attacks, the report said. Washington has deliberately kept the campaign under wraps to avoid signalling any intention of resuming major combat operations, one US official was quoted as saying.

Trump said that he was “in no rush” to decide whether to resume military action against Iran. “One way or the other, we will do something, but there is no rush. We crippled them financially. They have no money, no gasoline, and their people are getting very tired of it,” he said in a phone interview with Axios on Monday.

The US midterm elections are seen as a turning point for Trump as he decides whether to launch a major bombing campaign against Iran to try to bring the conflict to an end, Axios reported.

It added that the president appears to be pursuing two tracks simultaneously, allowing diplomatic efforts to continue while preparing to resume military action if he determines that a deal is out of reach.

“Oil Prices are dropping like a rock, down almost 10 US dollars a barrel, a record, because people feel that there will not be a war with Iran. Iran wants a settlement as soon as possible. It could happen,” Trump wrote Monday in a post on Truth Social.

Iranian officials have warned that any new attack would trigger an unrestrained response. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, however, said Tehran remained willing to continue negotiations, Iran’s official news agency IRNA reported.

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International News

Iran thanks India for rescuing 20 crew members of pirated vessel in Arabian Sea

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The Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in New Delhi on Tuesday expressed gratitude to the Government of India, the Indian Navy and the Indian Air Force for rescuing 20 Iranian crew members of the fishing vessel Azini from pirates in a coordinated operation in the Arabian Sea.

Appreciating the Indian Armed Forces for their efforts, the Iranian Embassy said the operation reflected India’s commitment to humanitarian assistance and its role in saving lives beyond borders.

In a post on X, the Embassy said: “The Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in New Delhi expresses its sincere appreciation to the Government of India, the Indian Navy and the Indian Air Force for their successful operation to rescue the 20 Iranian crew members of the fishing vessel Azini from pirates.”

“We highly commend the professionalism, courage and effective coordination demonstrated by the Indian Armed Forces, reflecting India’s strong commitment to Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) and its role in saving lives beyond borders,” It added.

The embassy highlighted that this humanitarian operation stands as a testament to the “spirit of friendship, solidarity and cooperation between Iran and India.”

“We extend our sincere gratitude to all those involved in ensuring the safe rescue of the Iranian crew.”

The Indian Navy rescued all 20 crew members of the pirated fishing vessel Azini in a meticulously coordinated 48-hour operation, more than 3,000 km from Mumbai, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said.

The operation was successfully carried out on November 2, with the Navy locating and intercepting the vessel and securing the safe release of all crew members from heavily armed pirates.

Congratulating the Indian Navy on the successful mission, the Defence Minister said that the operation demonstrated the force’s high operational readiness and its ability to respond decisively to maritime threats across the region.

In a post on X, Singh said: “My congratulations to #Indian Navy for successfully executing a meticulously coordinated 48-hour operation to rescue all 20 crew members of the pirated fishing vessel, Azini, more than 3000 km from Mumbai in the Arabian Sea, on 02 Nov 26.”

“The swift localisation, interception and safe release of the crew and vessel from significantly-armed pirates, with timely support from the Indian Air Force, speak well of the Indian Navy’s high operational readiness and ability to respond decisively to maritime threats across the region,” he added.

Praising the personnel involved, the Defence Minister said: “Our brave personnel have once again demonstrated India’s ability, intent and resolve to safeguard lives, uphold maritime security and ensure stability across the Indian Ocean Region.”

Reiterating India’s commitment to maritime security, Singh said the country would continue to work towards ensuring safe seas and a free, open and secure Indian Ocean Region.

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