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After war with Azerbaijan, Armenia taps India for military hardware

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Recently in June, a defence delegation from the Republic of Armenia visited India, meeting with their counterparts here. The delegation came armed with a shopping list. While little is known about its contents, drones have been confirmed to have figured prominently on the list. But not drones alone, an official confirmed without going into any further details. This is not the first time that Armenia has evinced interest in Indian military hardware. In 2020, it concluded a deal with India worth 40 million for the supply of four indigenously built weapon-locating radars. The SWATHI radars have been developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).

Since then, Armenia’s defence requirement has grown exponentially. “The Karabakh war made us rethink our defence needs,” said an Armenian official who did not want to be named. The war referred to the one the tiny South Caucasian nation fought with Azerbaijan over the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. For twenty years the Armenians had held the ethnic Armenian enclave which technically formed part of Azerbaijan, as a result of the controversial borders drawn up during the erstwhile Soviet Union where the exercise was primarily based on keeping individual republics dependent on Moscow.

However, in 2020 Armenia lost all the territory to Azerbaijan, including the corridor that connected Armenia to the enclave. Though a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaties Organisation (CSTO), Russia refused to intervene in the war since it considered Nagorno-Karabakh to technically not be ‘Armenian territory’. Russian defence equipment also proved not to be a match for the Turkish equipment that was deployed, especially Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones. Turkish military counsellors and arms won the war for Azerbaijan. “Russia intervened only when it felt Turkey would become a permanent presence in the region,” said the official bitterly. The result – a Russian peace keeping force in Nagorno-Karabakh. But the war also showed the limits of Western support and help for Armenia, as well as the limits of Armenian soft power -primarily its diaspora abroad, which is a source of pride for many Armenians. Armenia, even as located in a hostile neighbourhood, remains dependent on Russia. And Russia now remains focused on Ukraine.

The war has also isolated Armenia in other ways, by way of few foreign investments, decline in trade and commerce, exacerbated by the pandemic. Cash strapped Armenia has been unable to modernise its industrial base or step up its R and D. Armenian analysts bemoan the fact that the country has been unable to take advantage of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and coveted Chinese investments seemed to have bypassed the tiny country even as rivals Azerbaijan and Turkey have apparently benefitted. It is another matter that along with investments Armenia has also escaped the famous Chinese debt trap unlike similarly cash strapped Tajikistan, for instance. But its bilateral trade with China amounting to $873 USD is heavily tilted in favour of the latter. It would also be interesting to know how Armenian analysts view events in Sri Lanka.

This makes the situation very favourable for India. India’s ties with Armenia are civilizational, thanks to its diaspora, Armenia and India continue to share a unique bond. High profile visits have characterized bilateral relations, and new life was breathed into the relationship beginning with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Armenian President Nikol Pashashian in New York in September on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. India sees Armenia not only as a friend but a good counterweight to Turkey whose President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been particularly belligerent on the Kashmir issue, and followed a number of policies inimical to India, as well as to Azerbaijan, closely allied with Turkey and Pakistan.

Armenia is strategically located bordering Russia, Iran, Turkey. It is a significant part of multimodal trade routes. The Armenian North South Road Corridor is being developed to connect the Black Sea ports through the territory of Armenia and Georgia and further to Europe.

The implementation of the Project is expected to improve Europe – Caucasus – Asia road communication at the intersection of West Asia and East Europe. During his visit to Yerevan last year in October, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar pledged his support for the corridor. Earlier in 2021, Armenia was included in the virtual conference to commemorate the Chabahar Port. Its North South Corridor easily connects to the International North South Transport Corridor that India is involved in together with Russia and Iran. The first freight recently arrived through the INSTC from Russia to India. The Armenian Road Corridor becomes a natural part of the INSTC, which India has pitched for further linking to the Chabahar Port which it is helping develop.

This offers a valuable option to the BRI. India must therefore seize the opportunity to direct investments to the country, which will help to both develop the corridor, currently being funded by amongst others the Asian Development Bank, as well as resuscitate Armenia’s flailing economy. While China’s Confucius Institutes have made inroads and become quickly popular with Armenians, Indian soft power through Bollywood, Indian cuisine, and the centuries old Armenian diaspora in India has an edge. But it needs to be backed up by equally strong investments and trade. Current bilateral trade between India and Armenia hovers around a paltry $ 234 million. Of this Armenia enjoys the balance of trade but its main exports are minerals and metals. It is seeking to set up its manufacturing base and Indian companies and entrepreneurs with enormous experience can help in this.

Together with defence, trade, and investments, Armenia can become a strategically significant partner for India, where India can set up bases and a commercial and defence hub for joint manufacture and Indian exports beyond. Located in Russia’s sphere of influence, this is an additional advantage for India. Any Indian bases there should not be irksome to Russia, even as it offers an alternative to Armenia and will preempt China’s expanding footprint.

International News

20 Ethiopian migrants killed as boat capsizes off Yemen: IOM

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Aden, Jan 22: A total of 20 Ethiopian migrants, including nine women and 11 men, were killed when their boat capsized off the southern Yemeni coast over the weekend, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported.

The vessel, carrying 35 Ethiopian migrants along with a Yemeni captain and his assistant, reportedly departed from the Hammarta area in Djibouti and capsized on Saturday night “amid strong seasonal winds” near Al-Hajjajah in Dubab District, Taiz Governorate, the IOM said in a statement, adding that the survivors have successfully reached the shore.

“This tragedy is a grim reminder of the treacherous conditions migrants endure in their search for safety and a better life,” the statement quoted IOM’s Chief of Mission in Yemen Abdusattor Esoev as saying.

“The international community must strengthen its resolve to address the root causes of irregular migration and prioritise the protection and dignity of migrants,” Esoev said.

Yemen’s coastal waters are among the world’s most dangerous. According to IOM statistics, more than 60,000 migrant arrivals in Yemen were documented in 2024 alone.

Since 2014, 3,435 deaths and disappearances have been recorded along the Eastern Route, including 1,416 lives lost to drowning.

On Tuesday, a Yemeni government official, speaking to Xinhua on condition of anonymity, confirmed that “the incident occurred days ago” and said that dozens of people had died, without providing specific casualty figures.

In another significant development, the IOM commended the Ethiopian Statistical Service (ESS) and 13 government institutions involved in migration data-generating for signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and data-sharing protocol on 15 January.

The Ethiopian Statistical Service, the Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of Labor and Skills, the Ministry of Peace, the Ministry of Women and Social Affairs, the Ethiopian Diaspora Service, the Ethiopian Federal Police Commission, the Ethiopian National ID Program, the Immigration and Citizenship Service, and the Refugees and Returnees Service were among the key institutions that formalised this agreement with the ESS.

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Unlike 2017, top stars, tech tycoons and politicians line up for Donald Trump’s historic inauguration

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Washington, Jan 20: As millions all over the world anxiously wait for Donald Trump’s second inaugural address late Monday evening, India time, after he is sworn into office for another presidential term, several foreign leaders, tech billionaires and top celebrities have started arriving in the US capital to attend the ceremony that will take place inside the Capitol Rotunda.

As people queue up for the ceremony, Politico revealed that seven Democrats, who had boycotted Trump’s first inauguration in 2017, are also going this time.

Breaking tradition, several foreign leaders will also be attending the high-profile ceremony.

“Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will attend the inauguration ceremony of US President-elect Donald Trump,” stated the Italian Government Presidency of the Council of Ministers.

Argentina’s President Javier Milei, who has already addressed a couple of events – including at the Milken Centre in Washington DC on Sunday – has called the inauguration of President Trump as a milestone event in “global crusade for freedom” and the “clearest evidence that a new era has begun”.

Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele, former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawieck have also been invited.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who may not be able to make it for the inauguration stated over the weekend that “everything will change” after Trump takes office.

“A different day will dawn over the Western world; four bitter, difficult, painful years, punctuated by failures, will come to an end: democratic governance,” Orban said on Friday in a radio programme.

External Affairs Minister (EAM) S. Jaishankar will be representing India at the swearing-in ceremony and will also have meetings with representatives of the incoming administration, as also some other dignitaries visiting the US on the occasion.

According to the New York Times, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos, three of the world’s wealthiest men, are expected to be among the major tech executives who would sit in a “position of honour on the dais” at Trump’s inauguration, possibly along with Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook.

Regular attendees would include President Joe Biden and Jill Biden, former President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton, former President George W Bush and Laura Bush, and former President Barack Obama.

While Team Trump had struggled to invite big celebs and performers in 2017, top stars are slated to perform at the inauguration ball this time.

It includes Grammy-winner Nelly, Lee Greenwood, Kid Rock, Billy Ray Cyrus, Christopher Macchio and many more big names.

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First 3 hostages arrive in Israel under Gaza truce deal

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Jerusalem/Gaza, Jan 20: Three Israeli women, released from Hamas captivity in Gaza, arrived in Israel, the first day that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas took effect, according to Israeli officials.

The three — Emily Damari, 28, a British-Israeli; Doron Steinbrecher, 30, a veterinary nurse; and Romi Gonen, 23, abducted from the Nova music festival — were finally released on Sunday after 471 days in captivity.

They are the first of 33 Israeli hostages expected to be released.

Under the three-phase pact, Sunday marked the beginning of six weeks of calm, ending more than 15 months of intensive Israeli strikes that left Gaza in ruins and killed more than 46,900 Palestinians, according to an update from Gaza’s health authorities.

In a gradual release, Hamas will free every week about three to four hostages. In return, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian detainees held in Israeli jails. The first 90, mostly women and children from the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem, were released later on Sunday.

Hamas handed over the three female hostages to Israeli forces through the Red Cross in Gaza, the Israeli military said, adding that “a short while ago, accompanied by Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Shin Bet forces, the released hostages crossed the border into Israeli territory”.

The three were taken to a reception point in southern Israel near the Gaza border, where they underwent an initial medical assessment and met their mothers, according to the military.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised statement that the three “went through hell”.

“This is a great moment, an exciting moment,” he added. In an address to reporters, IDF Spokesman Daniel Hagari said, “Today, we salute and embrace them (three hostages) and their families as they reunite after so long.”

He added that Israeli forces have redeployed to the outskirts of Gaza and are “prepared for defence and offence” if Hamas violates the agreement.

Abu Ubaida, spokesperson for Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, said on Sunday that Al-Qassam and other Palestinian factions are committed to the ceasefire deal.

“We, along with other resistance factions, declare our full commitment to the ceasefire agreement, but this remains contingent on the enemy’s adherence,” Ubaida emphasised in a television statement.

He said the October 7 “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” against Israel, was a “turning point” in the history of conflicts with Israel, explaining that the resistance inflicted significant losses on the Israeli army, including the destruction of around 2,000 military vehicles and heavy casualties among soldiers.

“We have shattered the Israeli deterrence theory and forced the occupation to open multiple fronts,” he added.

Describing Gaza residents as “the pride of the nation and the symbol of its dignity,” Ubaida urged continued support for the resistance and steadfastness of the Palestinian people.

The ceasefire deal was implemented to end the fighting between Israel and Hamas that was triggered by Hamas’ cross-border assault on October 7, 2023, which resulted in the killing of 1,200 people in Israel and the kidnapping of about 250 others.

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