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After war with Azerbaijan, Armenia taps India for military hardware

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Recently in June, a defence delegation from the Republic of Armenia visited India, meeting with their counterparts here. The delegation came armed with a shopping list. While little is known about its contents, drones have been confirmed to have figured prominently on the list. But not drones alone, an official confirmed without going into any further details. This is not the first time that Armenia has evinced interest in Indian military hardware. In 2020, it concluded a deal with India worth 40 million for the supply of four indigenously built weapon-locating radars. The SWATHI radars have been developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).

Since then, Armenia’s defence requirement has grown exponentially. “The Karabakh war made us rethink our defence needs,” said an Armenian official who did not want to be named. The war referred to the one the tiny South Caucasian nation fought with Azerbaijan over the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. For twenty years the Armenians had held the ethnic Armenian enclave which technically formed part of Azerbaijan, as a result of the controversial borders drawn up during the erstwhile Soviet Union where the exercise was primarily based on keeping individual republics dependent on Moscow.

However, in 2020 Armenia lost all the territory to Azerbaijan, including the corridor that connected Armenia to the enclave. Though a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaties Organisation (CSTO), Russia refused to intervene in the war since it considered Nagorno-Karabakh to technically not be ‘Armenian territory’. Russian defence equipment also proved not to be a match for the Turkish equipment that was deployed, especially Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones. Turkish military counsellors and arms won the war for Azerbaijan. “Russia intervened only when it felt Turkey would become a permanent presence in the region,” said the official bitterly. The result – a Russian peace keeping force in Nagorno-Karabakh. But the war also showed the limits of Western support and help for Armenia, as well as the limits of Armenian soft power -primarily its diaspora abroad, which is a source of pride for many Armenians. Armenia, even as located in a hostile neighbourhood, remains dependent on Russia. And Russia now remains focused on Ukraine.

The war has also isolated Armenia in other ways, by way of few foreign investments, decline in trade and commerce, exacerbated by the pandemic. Cash strapped Armenia has been unable to modernise its industrial base or step up its R and D. Armenian analysts bemoan the fact that the country has been unable to take advantage of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and coveted Chinese investments seemed to have bypassed the tiny country even as rivals Azerbaijan and Turkey have apparently benefitted. It is another matter that along with investments Armenia has also escaped the famous Chinese debt trap unlike similarly cash strapped Tajikistan, for instance. But its bilateral trade with China amounting to $873 USD is heavily tilted in favour of the latter. It would also be interesting to know how Armenian analysts view events in Sri Lanka.

This makes the situation very favourable for India. India’s ties with Armenia are civilizational, thanks to its diaspora, Armenia and India continue to share a unique bond. High profile visits have characterized bilateral relations, and new life was breathed into the relationship beginning with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Armenian President Nikol Pashashian in New York in September on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. India sees Armenia not only as a friend but a good counterweight to Turkey whose President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been particularly belligerent on the Kashmir issue, and followed a number of policies inimical to India, as well as to Azerbaijan, closely allied with Turkey and Pakistan.

Armenia is strategically located bordering Russia, Iran, Turkey. It is a significant part of multimodal trade routes. The Armenian North South Road Corridor is being developed to connect the Black Sea ports through the territory of Armenia and Georgia and further to Europe.

The implementation of the Project is expected to improve Europe – Caucasus – Asia road communication at the intersection of West Asia and East Europe. During his visit to Yerevan last year in October, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar pledged his support for the corridor. Earlier in 2021, Armenia was included in the virtual conference to commemorate the Chabahar Port. Its North South Corridor easily connects to the International North South Transport Corridor that India is involved in together with Russia and Iran. The first freight recently arrived through the INSTC from Russia to India. The Armenian Road Corridor becomes a natural part of the INSTC, which India has pitched for further linking to the Chabahar Port which it is helping develop.

This offers a valuable option to the BRI. India must therefore seize the opportunity to direct investments to the country, which will help to both develop the corridor, currently being funded by amongst others the Asian Development Bank, as well as resuscitate Armenia’s flailing economy. While China’s Confucius Institutes have made inroads and become quickly popular with Armenians, Indian soft power through Bollywood, Indian cuisine, and the centuries old Armenian diaspora in India has an edge. But it needs to be backed up by equally strong investments and trade. Current bilateral trade between India and Armenia hovers around a paltry $ 234 million. Of this Armenia enjoys the balance of trade but its main exports are minerals and metals. It is seeking to set up its manufacturing base and Indian companies and entrepreneurs with enormous experience can help in this.

Together with defence, trade, and investments, Armenia can become a strategically significant partner for India, where India can set up bases and a commercial and defence hub for joint manufacture and Indian exports beyond. Located in Russia’s sphere of influence, this is an additional advantage for India. Any Indian bases there should not be irksome to Russia, even as it offers an alternative to Armenia and will preempt China’s expanding footprint.

International News

Putin to visit India, ‘one of the great powers of our time’, soon: Lavrov

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Moscow, March 27: Citing that the political dialogue between India and Russia is “developing dynamically” and is facilitated by the fact that Moscow and New Delhi “have close or even coinciding views on the objectively emerging multipolar world order”, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that preparations are being made for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s upcoming visit to India.

“Relations between our countries have a long history. It can be said that they have stood the test of time more than once. Today, Russia and India are developing equal cooperation based on sincere, mutual respect and consideration of each other’s interests,” Lavrov told the participants of the first international conference ‘Russia and India: Towards a New Agenda for Bilateral Relations’ which was also addressed by External Affairs Minister (EAM) S. Jaishankar.

“It is difficult to overestimate the contribution of our leaders to this process. It is symbolic that Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his first bilateral foreign visit after his re-election last year to Russia. Now it is our turn. Russian President Vladimir Putin accepted the invitation of the head of the Indian government. The visit of the head of the Russian state to the Republic of India is being prepared,” he added.

Earlier, Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov had confirmed that Putin is expected to visit India in early 2025 following an invitation from Prime Minister Modi.

The visit is being planned as part of the ongoing commitment to annual meetings between the two leaders.

“Our leaders have an agreement to meet once a year. This time, it is our turn,” Ushakov had said during a press briefing.

The last visit by the Russian President to India took place on December 6, 2021, during the 21st India-Russia Annual Summit in New Delhi.

Meanwhile, PM Modi held two high-profile visits to Russia last year, attending the 22nd Russia-India Summit in July and later participated in the BRICS Summit held in Kazan in October.

Addressing the gathering during the Russia-India conference, Lavrov highlighted how the relations between both countries have a solid material base.

“Trade and economic cooperation is steadily expanding. We are successfully overcoming the attempts of certain ill-wishers to prevent this. In 2024, bilateral trade turnover exceeded $60 billion. This is the highest result in the entire modern history of relations. But, of course, this is not the limit. We continue to work to achieve the goal set by the leaders at last year’s July summit: to bring trade turnover to $100 billion by 2030. The increase in practical cooperation reflects not only the existing potential of Russian-Indian trade, but also the great interest of the business circles of our countries in its full development, including the implementation of joint investment projects,” he said.

The Russian Foreign Minister stated that, along with partner India, Russia advocates for the democratization of international relations, for an increased role for the Global South in economic governance mechanisms, respect for the cultural and civilizational identity of all peoples of the world, and their right to independently determine their own development paths.

“We highly value and welcome the ability of Indian diplomacy to implement an independent, multi-vector foreign policy course. We believe that India has every reason to have the status of one of the great powers of our time, one of the influential centres of the multipolar world. We share the philosophy of the Indian foreign policy concept “The whole world is a family”, aimed at ensuring international cooperation for the benefit of all mankind based on a balance of interests of all states. We value joint work in the UN , the G20 , BRICS , SCO and other multilateral platforms,” he mentioned.

“I would like to separately express gratitude to the Russian side for the fact that India, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally, consistently takes a balanced position with regard to the Ukrainian crisis and advocates its resolution through dialogue and the elimination of the root causes of this conflict,” he added.

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International News

Egypt, Spain reject Israeli military operations in Gaza

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Cairo, March 26: Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez rejected the ongoing Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip.

During a phone conversation on Tuesday, they emphasised the necessity of an immediate ceasefire, an end to the Israeli ground incursion into the Strip, and the urgent delivery of humanitarian aid, Xinhua news agency reported quoting a statement from the Egyptian presidency.

Sisi reaffirmed Egypt’s opposition to any attempts to displace Palestinians from their land. Sanchez backed an Arab-led plan to rebuild Gaza and aligned Spain’s position with Egypt in rejecting the forced displacement of Palestinians or any move to undermine their cause, the statement said.

Sanchez, in a brief statement on X, confirmed his discussion with Sisi and called for “the immediate restoration of the ceasefire and a return to the negotiating table to achieve peace and stability in the region based on the two-state solution.”

“This tragic spiral of destruction and death must end,” he added.

The two leaders also discussed the situations in Syria and Lebanon, emphasising the need to maintain both countries’ stability and territorial integrity.

Israel resumed strikes in Gaza on March 18 after its ceasefire deal with Hamas that began on January 19 unraveled. Israeli forces subsequently launched ground operations across southern, northern, and central Gaza. The death toll from this new escalation has topped 792, according to the Gaza-based health authorities.

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India tells Pakistan it must quit Kashmir, stop justifying terrorism

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United Nations, March 25: India has told Pakistan to vacate the illegally occupied territory in Jammu and Kashmir and stop justifying state-sponsored terrorism.

Replying to a Pakistan attempt to raise Kashmir for the umpteenth time in the Security Council, India’s Permanent Representative P. Harish said on Monday, “Such repeated references neither validate their illegal claims nor justify their state-sponsored cross-border terrorism.”

“Pakistan continues to illegally occupy the territory of Jammu and Kashmir, which it must vacate,” he said, adding “That would be in keeping with Security Council Resolution 47 adopted on April 21, 1948, that requires Pakistan to withdraw its forces and infiltrators from Kashmir.”

“Jammu and Kashmir was, is, and will always be an integral part of India,” Harish declared.

He added, “We would advise Pakistan not to try to divert the attention of this forum to drive their parochial and divisive agenda.”

Earlier during the debate on the new realities facing peacekeeping, Syed Tariq Fatemi, Pakistan’s junior foreign affairs minister, said the Council should enforce its resolution on a plebiscite for Kashmir.

However, that resolution made it a point to demand that Pakistan “secure the withdrawal from the State of Jammu and Kashmir of tribesmen and Pakistani nationals not normally resident therein who have entered the State for the purpose of fighting”. The resolution also orders Pakistan to stop aiding militants or infiltrating. It demanded that Islamabad “prevent any intrusion into the State of such elements and any furnishing of material aid to those fighting in the State”.

A plebiscite could not be held when the Council resolution was passed because Pakistan sabotaged it by refusing to abide by the precondition of its withdrawal from Kashmir. India maintains that a plebiscite is now irrelevant because the people of Kashmir have made clear their allegiance to India by participating in elections and by electing the leaders of the territories.

Fatemi brought up the UN Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) that was set up in 1949 to monitor the ceasefire along the Line of Control. India barely tolerates the UNMOGIP’s presence in India considering it a relic of history made irrelevant by the 1972 Shimla agreement between the leaders of the two countries declaring the Kashmir dispute a bilateral issue with no room for third parties. India has ousted UNMOGIP from the government-provided building in New Delhi.

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