International News
After war with Azerbaijan, Armenia taps India for military hardware
Recently in June, a defence delegation from the Republic of Armenia visited India, meeting with their counterparts here. The delegation came armed with a shopping list. While little is known about its contents, drones have been confirmed to have figured prominently on the list. But not drones alone, an official confirmed without going into any further details. This is not the first time that Armenia has evinced interest in Indian military hardware. In 2020, it concluded a deal with India worth 40 million for the supply of four indigenously built weapon-locating radars. The SWATHI radars have been developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).
Since then, Armenia’s defence requirement has grown exponentially. “The Karabakh war made us rethink our defence needs,” said an Armenian official who did not want to be named. The war referred to the one the tiny South Caucasian nation fought with Azerbaijan over the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. For twenty years the Armenians had held the ethnic Armenian enclave which technically formed part of Azerbaijan, as a result of the controversial borders drawn up during the erstwhile Soviet Union where the exercise was primarily based on keeping individual republics dependent on Moscow.
However, in 2020 Armenia lost all the territory to Azerbaijan, including the corridor that connected Armenia to the enclave. Though a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaties Organisation (CSTO), Russia refused to intervene in the war since it considered Nagorno-Karabakh to technically not be ‘Armenian territory’. Russian defence equipment also proved not to be a match for the Turkish equipment that was deployed, especially Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones. Turkish military counsellors and arms won the war for Azerbaijan. “Russia intervened only when it felt Turkey would become a permanent presence in the region,” said the official bitterly. The result – a Russian peace keeping force in Nagorno-Karabakh. But the war also showed the limits of Western support and help for Armenia, as well as the limits of Armenian soft power -primarily its diaspora abroad, which is a source of pride for many Armenians. Armenia, even as located in a hostile neighbourhood, remains dependent on Russia. And Russia now remains focused on Ukraine.
The war has also isolated Armenia in other ways, by way of few foreign investments, decline in trade and commerce, exacerbated by the pandemic. Cash strapped Armenia has been unable to modernise its industrial base or step up its R and D. Armenian analysts bemoan the fact that the country has been unable to take advantage of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and coveted Chinese investments seemed to have bypassed the tiny country even as rivals Azerbaijan and Turkey have apparently benefitted. It is another matter that along with investments Armenia has also escaped the famous Chinese debt trap unlike similarly cash strapped Tajikistan, for instance. But its bilateral trade with China amounting to $873 USD is heavily tilted in favour of the latter. It would also be interesting to know how Armenian analysts view events in Sri Lanka.
This makes the situation very favourable for India. India’s ties with Armenia are civilizational, thanks to its diaspora, Armenia and India continue to share a unique bond. High profile visits have characterized bilateral relations, and new life was breathed into the relationship beginning with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Armenian President Nikol Pashashian in New York in September on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. India sees Armenia not only as a friend but a good counterweight to Turkey whose President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been particularly belligerent on the Kashmir issue, and followed a number of policies inimical to India, as well as to Azerbaijan, closely allied with Turkey and Pakistan.
Armenia is strategically located bordering Russia, Iran, Turkey. It is a significant part of multimodal trade routes. The Armenian North South Road Corridor is being developed to connect the Black Sea ports through the territory of Armenia and Georgia and further to Europe.
The implementation of the Project is expected to improve Europe – Caucasus – Asia road communication at the intersection of West Asia and East Europe. During his visit to Yerevan last year in October, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar pledged his support for the corridor. Earlier in 2021, Armenia was included in the virtual conference to commemorate the Chabahar Port. Its North South Corridor easily connects to the International North South Transport Corridor that India is involved in together with Russia and Iran. The first freight recently arrived through the INSTC from Russia to India. The Armenian Road Corridor becomes a natural part of the INSTC, which India has pitched for further linking to the Chabahar Port which it is helping develop.
This offers a valuable option to the BRI. India must therefore seize the opportunity to direct investments to the country, which will help to both develop the corridor, currently being funded by amongst others the Asian Development Bank, as well as resuscitate Armenia’s flailing economy. While China’s Confucius Institutes have made inroads and become quickly popular with Armenians, Indian soft power through Bollywood, Indian cuisine, and the centuries old Armenian diaspora in India has an edge. But it needs to be backed up by equally strong investments and trade. Current bilateral trade between India and Armenia hovers around a paltry $ 234 million. Of this Armenia enjoys the balance of trade but its main exports are minerals and metals. It is seeking to set up its manufacturing base and Indian companies and entrepreneurs with enormous experience can help in this.
Together with defence, trade, and investments, Armenia can become a strategically significant partner for India, where India can set up bases and a commercial and defence hub for joint manufacture and Indian exports beyond. Located in Russia’s sphere of influence, this is an additional advantage for India. Any Indian bases there should not be irksome to Russia, even as it offers an alternative to Armenia and will preempt China’s expanding footprint.
International News
Only 26 per cent of Australians supportive of war on Iran: Poll

Canberra, March 25: Only 26 per cent of Australians approve of the US and Israel’s strikes on Iran and half the population would oppose the deployment of Australian troops, a poll has found.
The latest edition of The Essential Report, a monthly poll on social and political issues conducted by independent firm Essential Research, found that 10 per cent of Australians strongly approve and 16 per cent approve of the US and Israel’s decision to initiate strikes on Iran, Xinhua news agency reported.
By comparison, 27 per cent of respondents said they strongly disapprove of the war and 15 per cent said they disapprove, with the remaining participants either neutral or unsure.
Asked about Australia’s involvement in the ongoing conflict, 50 per cent of participants in the poll said they would oppose sending troops to support US-Israeli ground operations in Iran, compared to 21 per cent who said they would support such a move.
Respondents were also more likely to oppose than support Australia sending weapons and equipment to support third-party nations impacted by Iranian retaliatory strikes, such as the United Arab Emirates.
A clear majority of respondents, 60 per cent, were supportive of Australia working with international organizations to help peace talks and prevent further escalation.
In terms of diplomatic and trade relationships, 34 per cent of participants in the poll said that Australia should be working less closely with the United States, up from 14 per cent in 2021.
The poll of 1,008 people last week found 43 per cent disapproved of the US and Israeli bombardment of Iran, while just 26 per cent backed the move. Some 31 per cent were unsure or responded “don’t know”.
Crime
Pakistan leans on Sunni groups to curb Shia mobilisation, maintain Iran neutrality

New Delhi, March 25: For Pakistan’s Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, countering the pro-Iran Shia mobilisation in the country is increasingly becoming a headache. For Pakistan, countering this mobilisation is important as it is threatening to become bigger. However, the dilemma the establishment faces is that it cannot use its official machinery to take on the mobilisation of the Shias.
Pakistan has chosen to mediate between Iran and the United States, and hence it needs to remain neutral. Any direct action against the Shia mobilisation would infuriate Iran, and this is something that Islamabad wants to avoid.
An official said that Pakistan has now brought back its proxies to take on this problem. The Pakistan Army chief has ordered hardline Sunni elements and leaders from the Sipah-e-Sabah (SeS) and Jamaat-ud-Dawah (JuD) to take on the Shias who are mobilising in large numbers in support of Iran. These groups have, in the past, come to the rescue of the Pakistan establishment. When it comes to countering protesters who were seeking justice for jailed former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, it was these elements who took to the streets.
The members of the SeS and JuD have the backing of the army and ISI and have been given a free hand to indulge in street violence against those who are questioning the establishment, an official said.
The SeS is a banned Sunni Deobandi Islamist organisation and a former political party that was founded in 1985. This outfit came into existence only to oppose Shia influence in Pakistan. The SeS has a history of being involved in sectarian conflicts, including violence with the Shia organisation, Shipah-e-Muhammad, Pakistan.
The JuD, on the other hand, is the charity wing of the Lashkar-e-Taiba. The JuD follows the Ahl-i Hadith interpretation of Islam, which is similar to Wahhabism and Salafism.
An Intelligence Bureau official said that by involving the SeS and JuD, the Pakistan army chief would look to put down the mobilisation of the Shia. Since these groups have no accountability, the violence would not be blamed on the state, but on two individual organisations. This helps in the deniability factor, when Pakistan speaks with Iran, the official added.
Such violence will no doubt be scrutinised internationally and by foreign Intelligence agencies. The establishment would, however, try to get away by putting the blame on the SeS and JuD, while stating that it has nothing to do with them.
Another official said that both groups have been given immunity by the establishment. This means that they can choose to act the way they please.
Another official said that with such a plan in place, one could anticipate street violence and bloody clashes with the Shias in Pakistan.
By trying to mediate between Iran and the US, Pakistan wants to place itself in a position of power. Pakistan also wants to claim geopolitical relevance by offering to mediate between the two warring nations.
Field Marshal Asim Munir has taken this task upon himself and has been engaging directly with Iranian President Masood Pezeshkian. He has also been leveraging his relations with some of the Gulf nations and the US.
With Pakistan wanting geopolitical relevance, it cannot afford to officially crush the mobilisation that is taking place in support of Iran. If Pakistan ends up angering Iran at this juncture, then Tehran may not come to the table. This would hurt Pakistan’s ambitions of playing mediator and reclaiming geopolitical importance, another official said.
The JuD and the SeS have readily accepted what the Pakistan army chief has said, as they have done in the past. Officials say that both these outfits have had an agenda against the Shias for a long time, and hence the offer made by Field Marshal Munir is more than welcome for them.
International News
Backchannel talks shape US-Iran pause: Report

Washington, March 24: A series of backchannel talks helped shape President Donald Trump’s decision to pause planned strikes on Iran, according to US media reports.
The Wall Street Journal reported that officials from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan were involved in closed-door discussions to find a way out of the conflict.
The White House, however, refrained from giving any details. “These are sensitive diplomatic discussions and the United States will not negotiate through the news media,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told media.
These efforts came as Trump’s 48-hour deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was about to expire. The ultimatum had raised fears of strikes on Iranian power infrastructure.
According to the media report, Arab officials worked to find contacts within Iran’s leadership. They explored options for a temporary halt in fighting to allow further talks.
Egyptian intelligence officials opened a channel with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which plays a key role in Tehran’s decisions.
At the same time, Oman was also trying to ease tensions. Oman’s foreign minister said the country was “working intensively to put in place safe passage arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz.”
The New York Times reported that the United States and Iran were exchanging messages through intermediaries. But there was no sign of direct talks. Iranian officials denied that negotiations were underway.
The push for diplomacy reflects growing concern in the region. Gulf countries face the risk of wider attacks. They are pressing for de-escalation.
Still, major differences remain. The Wall Street Journal said mediators were sceptical about a quick deal. The two sides are far apart on key issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme and security guarantees.
There have also been early discussions about possible meetings in neutral countries such as Pakistan or Turkey. No meeting has been confirmed.
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are leading the outreach, according to reports.
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