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Budget math looks realistic, economic growth to pick up pace: Morgan Stanley

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New Delhi, Feb 3: The Union Budget has managed to meet the goals of boosting consumption though tax cuts, increasing capex through transfers to states, and maintaining the path of fiscal consolidation which is expected to lead to a recovery in the economic growth rate with macro stability in a comfortable range, according to a Morgan Stanley report released on Monday.

The report said that both fiscal and monetary policy are pivoting to support growth, which is in line with “our view of a cyclical recovery in growth”.

“The Budget math looks realistic, with nominal GDP assumed at 10.1 per cent for F2026 and gross tax revenue growth of 10.8 per cent. We will remain watchful of income tax collection growth, which the government expects to be 14.4 per cent, given the income tax cuts and execution of capex spending to meet the targets,” the report stated.

The report pointed out that the Budget has balanced needs to support growth and continue with fiscal consolidation. As such, the Budget targets a lower fiscal deficit of 4.4 per cent of GDP for F2026 even as it reduced income taxes to support consumption, especially for middle income tax payers, and expanded capex growth, mainly through a boost in grants to states for capex creation.

“Indeed, as per the Finance Minister, direct tax changes should lead to a 1.0 per cent revenue loss of Rs 1 lakh crore (0.3 per cent of GDP), which should help support consumption,” the Morgan Stanley report said.

On the spending side, the mix remains tilted to capex, with effective capex (direct capex plus grants in aid of creation of capital assets) seen growing at 17.4 per cent in F2026BE vs. 5.3 per cent of F2025RE.

“We expect the Budget to support growth recovery through measures to promote consumption and increase effective capex spending, which will likely lead to a more broad-based recovery, while at the same time continued consolidation should help macro stability remain in check,” the report observed.

The simultaneous boost to consumption and capex has to be sweet for equities, especially in the context of continuing and better-than-anticipated fiscal consolidation (projected primary deficit: 0.8 per cent).

The plethora of announcements around easing of India’s tax regime, including permanent establishment rules, GIFT city clarifications, extension of exemptions to sovereign funds, and changes to tax deduction and collection at source could improve FDI and private investment sentiment, according to the report.

“A new tax code is coming this week, as per the Budget, which could reveal a more liberal tax environment. We are overweight Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Technology, and underweight other sectors,” the report added.

Business

India 2nd largest mobile manufacturing country in the world: Minister

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New Delhi, Dec 27: India has ramped up electronics production six-fold and is the second largest mobile manufacturing country in the world, Union Minister of Electronics and Information Technology Ashwini Vaishnaw said on Saturday.

In multiple posts on social media platform X, Vaishnaw said that the country has increased electronic exports eightfold over the past 11 years, mainly driven by policy support from the Production Linked Incentive Scheme.

The PLI scheme for Large Scale Electronics Manufacturing has attracted over Rs 13,475 crore in investment and helped achieve production of about Rs 9.8 lakh crore in the electronics sector, driving manufacturing, jobs, and exports, he said.

Vaishnaw highlighted that “over 1.3 lakh jobs were created in the last five years and that electronics is now India’s third‑largest export category, climbing from seventh place”.

He said the country was initially focusing on finished products, but the Electronics Component Manufacturing Scheme supported a shift to “building capacity for modules, components, sub-modules, raw materials, and the machines that make them.”

The Electronics Component Manufacturing Scheme has 249 applications representing Rs 1.15 lakh crore in investment, Rs 10.34 lakh crore in production, and creating 1.42 lakh jobs, the post said, adding it is the highest-ever investment commitment in India’s electronics sector, indicating industry confidence.

Vaishnaw also noted progress in the semiconductor sector, saying ten units have been approved, with three already in pilot or early production. The minister said that “fabs and ATMPs from India will soon supply chips to phone and electronics manufacturers”.

“Electronics manufacturing created 25 lakh jobs in the last decade. This is the real economic growth at the grassroots level,” the minister said.

“As we scale semiconductors and component manufacturing, job creation will accelerate. From finished products to components, production is growing. Exports are rising. Global players are confident. Indian companies are competitive. Jobs are being created. This is ‘Make in India’ impact story!” he noted.

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Indian stock market ends holiday-shortened week in positive terrain

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Mumbai, Dec 27: Indian equity markets ended the week in a positive terrain, buoyed by expectations of stronger domestic demand, a favourable liquidity outlook and optimism over potential Fed policy easing in 2026, analysts said on Saturday.

The holiday-shortened week opened with a bullish undertone; however, momentum tapered off as the days progressed.

On Friday, Sensex closed at 85,041.45, slipping 367.25 points or 0.43 per cent. Nifty also ended in the red, falling 99.80 points or 0.38 per cent to settle at 26,042.30.

According to market watchers, the year-end lull kept trading largely range-bound, with hopes for a Santa Claus rally diminishing amid the absence of fresh catalysts, limited progress in US–India trade talks, and caution ahead of the upcoming earnings season.

“Sectoral trends were mixed, marked by selective profit booking across most segments, while metals, FMCG, and media stocks offered notable resilience,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Ltd.

Nifty 50 ended the week at 26,042, continuing to respect its long-term rising channel on the daily chart. The index remains comfortably above the 20-day EMA cluster, preserving the medium-term bullish structure, said analysts, adding that as long as Nifty sustains above the 26,000–25,900 support zone, the overall bias remains positive.

On the domestic front, RBI’s liquidity interventions, such as open market operations and a USD/INR buy–sell swap, helped stabilise the rupee, though persistent FII outflows continued to weigh on sentiment.

Meanwhile, gold advanced on safe-haven demand, while crude prices hovered near multi-year lows, though U.S. steps to tighten pressure on Venezuelan oil shipments could exert upward pressure in the near term

Looking ahead, market sentiment is likely to stay cautious as investors brace for the upcoming earnings season while remaining attuned to global developments and currency movements, said analysts.

Attention will also turn to next week’s data releases, including India’s industrial and manufacturing output figures, manufacturing PMI, and the US FOMC minutes, said Nair.

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Keralites gulped liquor worth over Rs 332 crore during Christmas

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Thiruvananthapuram, Dec 26: The Kerala State Beverages Corporation (BEVCO) recorded a sharp surge in liquor sales during the Christmas week, with revenues touching a record Rs 332.62 crore, according to official figures.

The Christmas week sales are calculated for the four days from December 22 to December 25, and officials said this year witnessed a significant jump compared to previous years.

Data shows a 19 per cent increase in sales over the corresponding period last year, underlining a strong festive demand.

The sharpest spike was recorded on Christmas Eve, when liquor sales alone amounted to Rs 114.45 crore.

In comparison, sales on the same day last year stood at Rs 98.98 crore, indicating a substantial year-on-year rise.

Officials attributed the surge not only to the festive season but also to improved consumer facilities introduced by BEVCO over the past year.

The corporation had expanded its premium retail infrastructure, including the launch of new premium counters aimed at offering a better purchasing experience and a wider selection of high-end products.

Premium outlets were recently opened in key centres such as Thrissur and Kozhikode, and officials said these had a positive impact on overall sales figures.

The enhanced facilities helped reduce crowding at regular outlets and encouraged higher-value purchases, contributing to the increase in revenue.

The Corporation has traditionally seen a spike in sales during festival periods such as Onam and Christmas, but this year’s figures mark one of the highest Christmas week turnovers recorded by the state-run corporation.

The rise in liquor sales is expected to provide a significant boost to the State exchequer, as the corporation is a major contributor to Kerala’s revenue through taxes and duties.

Liquor is sold through state-run 325 retail outlets.

Studies have shown that around 10 per cent of the 3.30 crore Kerala population are tipplers, including around three lakh women.

In 2024–25, Kerala’s liquor sales rose to Rs 19,730.66 crore, up from Rs 19,069.27 crore in 2023–24, marking an annual growth of 3.5 per cent.

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