Business
Budget math looks realistic, economic growth to pick up pace: Morgan Stanley
New Delhi, Feb 3: The Union Budget has managed to meet the goals of boosting consumption though tax cuts, increasing capex through transfers to states, and maintaining the path of fiscal consolidation which is expected to lead to a recovery in the economic growth rate with macro stability in a comfortable range, according to a Morgan Stanley report released on Monday.
The report said that both fiscal and monetary policy are pivoting to support growth, which is in line with “our view of a cyclical recovery in growth”.
“The Budget math looks realistic, with nominal GDP assumed at 10.1 per cent for F2026 and gross tax revenue growth of 10.8 per cent. We will remain watchful of income tax collection growth, which the government expects to be 14.4 per cent, given the income tax cuts and execution of capex spending to meet the targets,” the report stated.
The report pointed out that the Budget has balanced needs to support growth and continue with fiscal consolidation. As such, the Budget targets a lower fiscal deficit of 4.4 per cent of GDP for F2026 even as it reduced income taxes to support consumption, especially for middle income tax payers, and expanded capex growth, mainly through a boost in grants to states for capex creation.
“Indeed, as per the Finance Minister, direct tax changes should lead to a 1.0 per cent revenue loss of Rs 1 lakh crore (0.3 per cent of GDP), which should help support consumption,” the Morgan Stanley report said.
On the spending side, the mix remains tilted to capex, with effective capex (direct capex plus grants in aid of creation of capital assets) seen growing at 17.4 per cent in F2026BE vs. 5.3 per cent of F2025RE.
“We expect the Budget to support growth recovery through measures to promote consumption and increase effective capex spending, which will likely lead to a more broad-based recovery, while at the same time continued consolidation should help macro stability remain in check,” the report observed.
The simultaneous boost to consumption and capex has to be sweet for equities, especially in the context of continuing and better-than-anticipated fiscal consolidation (projected primary deficit: 0.8 per cent).
The plethora of announcements around easing of India’s tax regime, including permanent establishment rules, GIFT city clarifications, extension of exemptions to sovereign funds, and changes to tax deduction and collection at source could improve FDI and private investment sentiment, according to the report.
“A new tax code is coming this week, as per the Budget, which could reveal a more liberal tax environment. We are overweight Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Technology, and underweight other sectors,” the report added.
Business
Sensex, Nifty fall amid weak global trends; metal, oil & gas stocks hit hard
Mumbai, Feb 3: India’s stock markets on Monday were trading lower as weak global cues and a decline in Asian markets weighed on investor sentiment.
The benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, struggled throughout the day, with most sectors witnessing losses.
At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex had dropped 319.22 points, or 0.41 per cent, to settle at 77,186.74, while the Nifty was down 121.10 points, or 0.52 per cent, to close the trading session at 23,361.05.
The decline in the Indian share market is due to US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 25 per cent tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with a 10 per cent duty on Chinese goods.
Trump argues that these measures are necessary to protect American borders and curb illicit activities.
Out of 50 constituent stocks on Nifty, 35 closed in the red as the exchange was in negative territory throughout the trading session.
Heavyweights like Larsen & Toubro, Tata Consumer, Hero MotoCorp, Coal India, and Bharat Electronics are among the top losers on NSE with losses extending up to 4.67 per cent.
On the other hand, 13 stocks managed to stay in positive territory, led by Bajaj Finance, Shriram Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra, Wipro, and Bajaj Finserv, which recorded gains of up to 5.12 per cent.
Most sectors were in the red, except for IT, which went up by 0.39 per cent and consumer durables, which rose 0.33 per cent.
The biggest losers were metal stocks, which fell 3 per cent, and oil & gas stocks, which declined 2.80 per cent.
Other sectors facing pressure included FMCG which was down by 2.14 per cent, PSU Banks was down by 2.02 per cent, and realty declined by 1.20 per cent.
The Nifty Bank index was also under pressure, slipping 0.61 per cent, along with financial services, healthcare, and pharma stocks.
The broader markets also struggled, with the BSE SmallCap index falling 1.85 per cent and the BSE MidCap index losing 1.29 per cent.
Meanwhile, India’s market volatility index, India VIX, rose 2.30 per cent to 14.42.
Business
Govt creating new Income Tax Act for tech-driven taxpayers, scrapping convoluted older law
New Delhi, Feb 3: After providing a big relief to the Indian middle class in the Union Budget 2025-26, the government is all set to present a new Income Tax Bill this week which would further simplify the entire tax system, bringing sweeping reforms.
The current Income Tax Act was enforced in the country in 1961 and now, the new Income Tax Act is being made according to the needs of the 21st century to replace the existing law, according to sources close to the development.
While presenting the Budget in the Parliament, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the country needs a new Income Tax regime and a bill for this would be introduced in this session — in all likelihood on February 6.
A review committee was formed for the new Income Tax law in the country to replace the earlier cumbersome law. According to sources, the new Income Tax Bill has been prepared by the government on the recommendation of the committee.
In this era of technology and massive digitalisation, taxpayers can perform several things online on his or her own. In such a scenario, there will be smooth changes in the new I-T Bill for the common man who can understand it seamlessly online. This is an attempt to make the system simple and convenient for common people,
If sources are to be believed, this bill is slated to be tabled in the Parliament on February 6. The simplification of this bill can be understood in a way that there are about 6 lakh words in the old Income Tax Act, which will be drastically reduced to about 3 lakh in the new bill, easy for taxpayers to comprehend.
The government is working on simplifying the language of the new Income Tax Bill. Actually, in the current Income Tax rules, the interpretation of one rule or the other can be different — creating confusion for taxpayers.
The earlier Income Tax law has been changed so many times and with so many additions, it became more incomprehensive for the common man.
The Parliament passed the Income Tax Act, which came into force on April 1, 1962. Since then, several amendments have been made, again and again, making it all the more complicated.
Now, as part of the process of its simplification, the government felt the need to create a new I-T Bill so that people could understand it easily.
If sources are to be believed, people are also afraid that after the implementation of the new Income Tax rules, the government will abolish the old tax regime.
But, according to sources, no such plan is there with the government yet. According to the government, about 78 per cent of taxpayers have already shifted to the new tax regime. Still, according to sources, the government is not in the mood to make any major changes to the old tax regime.
On the other hand, if sources are to be believed, the government is also trying to reduce people’s dependence on government schemes for investment so that people invest more in other assets, ranging from mutual funds and SIP to the stock market, which can be beneficial for people.
Along with this, the government’s intention behind giving such a big relief to the taxpayers is to increase private consumption which would directly benefit the health of the economy.
Business
Union Budget shapes India’s economic resilience, growth potential: Report
New Delhi, Feb 3: The steps articulated in the Union Budget are crucial in shaping India’s economic resilience and growth potential in the medium to long term, according to a report on Monday.
The Union Budget 2025-26 displays a balanced approach to sustaining economic growth while reinforcing fiscal prudence.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has chosen to stimulate consumption while keeping the focus intact on capex and taking rapid strides towards fiscal consolidation, according to the report by CareEdge Ratings.
“Measures to improve the ease of doing business through deregulation, supporting MSMEs, investments, and exports outline a clear strategy for achieving Viksit Bharat in 2047,” CareEdge Managing Director and Group CEO Mehul Pandya said.
Key tax reforms, including the rationalisation of personal income tax slabs, and the TDS and TCS provisions, aim to simplify compliance and enhance disposable income, fostering consumer confidence.
“No personal income tax for income up to Rs 12 lakhs should provide a big fillip to consumer sentiments and spending,” he mentioned.
Considering the long-term funding needs for the infra sector, the proposal to set up a Partial Credit Enhancement facility for the corporate sector by NaBFID is a welcome step.
Increasing the FDI limit in the insurance sector to 100 per cent is also a step in the right direction. The announcement to establish a High-Level Committee for regulatory reforms reflects a keenness to have a principle-based, light-touch regulatory framework.
The budget’s emphasis on sectors including tourism, healthcare, and manufacturing will catalyse job creation. The continuity in fiscal consolidation, with a budgeted fiscal deficit target of 4.4 per cent for FY26, will help the country move towards debt sustainability. These measures are poised to stabilise the macroeconomic environment, fostering private sector participation and investment.
Prime Minister Dhan-Dhaanya Krishi Yojana will enhance productivity, promote sustainable agriculture, improve storage, irrigation, and credit access across 100 districts, benefiting 1.7 crore farmers in partnership with states.
“Rural Prosperity and Resilience Programme will boost rural employment, create ample opportunities in rural areas, and reduce the necessity of migration. Phase 1 will cover 100 agri-districts,” according to the report.
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