Crime
Have Big Powers pushed Ukraine to Disaster?

Russia has declared war on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and is executing a plan meticulously prepared and war-games. NATO appears to have over-relied on the potency of its sanctions to deter Putin, which appears to be a major strategic error because it has not worked in the past and does not appear to be working now. Instead, it has emboldened Russian leadership’s resolve that NATO will be unable to respond to a quick offensive beyond condemnation, Ukraine’s capacity building, and sanctions on Russia.
It has pushed Ukraine to disaster, as its President’s loud demand to join NATO was neither acted upon by West, nor provided him any assurance that anyone else would do the heavy lifting or put boots on the ground in Ukraine to fight Russians, despite a massive military force imbalance in Russia’s favour.
Decoding Strategic and Military Action of Russia so far
The contours and logic of Russian plans were evident from its posturing over months, President Putin’s speeches to the nation and his demands made to Ukraine. The political aim of Russia seems to be to target Ukraine’s leadershipto give up demand of NATO membership, or else force a regime change, replacingit with a pro-Russian government not propagating NATO membership/agenda.
Strategically, the centre of gravity for the Russian offensive is the minds of Ukraine’s leadership and military to surrender to Russia with minimum militaryactions. This strategic goal cannot be realised without surrounding Kyiv, which is the key strategic objective; as a result, operations to encircle Kyiv and capture adjacent airbases have been launched. After Russia recognised the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, the liberation of the Donbas region was a foregone conclusion.
The military aim is to demilitarise Ukrainian military to ensure that Ukraine cannot be used as a springboard by NATO to threaten the security of Russia and isolate Kyiv to facilitate regime change without military interference. To shape the battlefield, Russian military postured three sides of Ukraine with massive combat superiority, used forces in Belarus to invade from the North to reach Kyiv via shortest route, used its Black Sea fleet and Crimea to blockade Ukraine from South, and forces in Donbas region to invade from east and some forces from northeast to expedite consolidation.
The military operations were preceded by cyber-attacks and information warfare. Military operations were launched in a well-planned and professional manner under the banner of ‘Special Operations,’ beginning with air and missile strikes to neutralise air defence capability, air assets to achieve air superiority, and pulverise military targets, claiming to have destroyed over 70 military targets and installations, including 11 airfields in Ukraine, before ground elements marched in, adding conventional superiority to upgrade its hybrid war.
NATO’s Response and Future Options
President Biden’s address on February 22, and statements of other western leaders, clearly indicated that NATO is not going to have boots on ground in Ukraine and will depend on financial sanctions and material support to Ukraine as response to Russian aggression.
This weakness emboldened Russia to seize opportunity for offensive into Ukraine with minimum military cost, so far. NATO is still unclear about further responses, as the Russian offensive is already underway; hence time for any possible military action by NATO is already over. NATO, therefore is only salvaging its own security by strengthening NATO countries bordering Ukraine/Russia to prevent any possibility of Russian adventurism into any of the NATO countries, leaving Ukraine to its fate, as it’s not a member of NATO as yet.
Likely Russian Action Ahead
Russia will try to achieve its strategic objectives as fast as possible and move out of Ukraine to minimise its cost. It will avoid fighting in built up areas, as it will prolong the invasion and may not remain as an occupational force to avoid backlash from a segment of hostile population turning into insurgency against it.
It will therefore try to maximise pressure on Ukraine by all instruments of power to submit to regime change or force it at the earliest and de-escalate. Notwithstanding what Russia wants, the resolve of Ukrainian military and leadership will determine the timeframe and escalation dynamics and the support of NATO to refuel resistance will determine the staying power. Russia is unlikely to make the mistake of annexing Ukraine, as it does not make sense in strategic cost benefit analysis. To build pressure for Ukraine to surrender, Russia may also take over some key strategic installations, till its strategic aims are achieved. It’s a harsh punishment for Ukraine’s uncomfortable geopolitical location and leadership’s desire to join NATO, which has thrust it into the centre of a “Big Power Contestation” that is going to be a tragedy for its people, in all contingencies.
Indian Response
The first priority for India should be to evacuate its own students and diaspora.It can push for diplomatic solutions and peaceful resolutions, as well as measures to reduce temperatures, but it should avoid taking sides because it has good connections with all of the opposing powers. While each country’s sovereignty must be maintained, both sides have rejected it when it has served their interests, as in the Iraq war, Crimea and Afghanistan.
India needs to factor the weak western response to Ukraine crisis in its strategic calculations, as it can embolden other authoritative powers like China to take similar actions in Indo-Pacific region.
(Major General S.B. Asthana is a strategic and security analyst, a veteran Infantry General. He is the Chief Instructor, United Service Institution of India. The views expressed are personal)
Crime
Kunal Kamra row: 3 more FIRs filed over Shinde jibe, merged with Mumbai case

Mumbai, March 29: In fresh trouble for controversial comedian Kunal Kamra, three additional FIRs filed against him in different cities have been merged with the one registered in Mumbai’s Khar police station over his alleged jibe at Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde.
The stand-up comedian courted controversy for cracking an allegedly objectionable joke during a show last month, using the term ‘gaddar’ (traitor) to make a veiled reference to Shinde.
The three zero FIRs that have been merged with the main case registered in Khar were filed in Thane, Nashik and Buldhana by Shiv Sena workers.
The three FIRs were filed by Sunil Jadhav from Nandgaon Manmad, Nashik; Sanjay Bhujbal from Jalgaon Jamod, Buldhana and Mayur Borse from Manmad, Nashik.
The complainants in the three FIRs said that the comedian allegedly created hatred between political parties by making ‘objectionable’ remarks against Shinde. They also alleged that Kamra’s remarks defamed Shinde’s ‘conduct’.
The three FIRs were registered under penal provisions of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita dealing with defamation and public mischief.
Kamra, who has been granted protection against arrest till April 7 by the Madras High Court, has been summoned by Khar police for recording his statement on Monday – this will be the third police attempt to call him as he has not responded to two earlier requests.
Deputy Commissioner of Police, Zone 9 (Mumbai), Dixit Gedam said two offences have been registered at Khar police station.
One is against Kamra for derogatory comments, while the other is against people who vandalised the Unicontinental hotel in Khar where the shoot of his stand-up comedy act titled ‘Naya Bharat’ took place.
Kamra landed in trouble after giving a comic spin-off to a popular Hindi song in which he indirectly described Shinde as a ‘traitor’, referring to the 2022 Maharashtra political crisis which eventually led to the collapse of the Uddhav Thackeray-led state government.
The controversy snowballed after Kamra uploaded a clip from the show on social media last Saturday. Angry Shiv Saniks vandalised the hotel, resulting in the arrest and the subsequent granting of bail to 12 Shinde supporters.
Crime
Accused in Saif Ali Khan stabbing case files bail plea, claims innocence

Mumbai, March 29: Mohammad Shariful Islam Shahzad, the accused in the stabbing of Bollywood superstar Saif Ali Khan, has filed a bail petition in the Mumbai Sessions Court, asserting that he is innocent and the case against him is fabricated.
The attack took place in the early hours of January 16 when the accused allegedly entered Saif’s Bandra residence through his youngest son Jeh’s room.
The actor, who was reportedly trying to fend off the assailant, suffered multiple stab wounds. Despite his injuries, Saif managed to go to the hospital on his own, accompanied by his son Taimur.
Shariful Islam Shahzad’s petition, filed through his lawyer, claims that the FIR was wrongly registered and that he has fully cooperated with the police investigation.
His legal team argues that since all evidence is already in police custody, there is no risk of tampering, and therefore, he should be granted bail.
Currently, the case is being handled by the Bandra Magistrate Court, but it falls under the jurisdiction of the Mumbai Sessions Court. Once the police file a charge sheet, the case will be transferred to the Sessions Court. However, the charge sheet is yet to be filed.
According to media reports, doctors removed a 2.5-inch knife from Saif’s wound. The actor sustained six stab injuries, two of which were serious as they were near his spine.
The incident reportedly occurred around 2:15 am on January 16 when the accused broke into the house, attacked the house help, and then stabbed Saif when he intervened.
Saif was alerted by noises from Jeh’s room, where he found the accused in an altercation with the house help. Attempting to protect the staff, Saif fought off the intruder with his bare hands before being stabbed multiple times.
Investigations have revealed that the accused, a Bangladeshi national, intended to rob a wealthy individual to finance his mother’s medical treatment in his home country. He has a history of petty theft and was previously dismissed from restaurants in Worli and Thane for stealing.
It is also reported that the attacker was unaware of Saif Ali Khan’s celebrity status and targeted the residence purely because it was located in an upscale apartment complex.
Crime
Baba Siddique Murder Case: Late NCP Leader’s Wife, Shehzeen Siddique, Seeks To Join Prosecution And Pleads For Justice In Special MCOCA Court

Mumbai: Late NCP leader Baba Siddique’s wife Shehzeen has approached the special MCOCA court, pleading that she be allowed to join the prosecution to conduct the case of her husband’s murder, as her family is the ultimate victim of the act of the accused.
As the court is yet to begin the trial, Baba’s wife Shehzeen has, on Friday, submitted an application through her advocate Trivankumar Karnani, seeking permission to allow her to join the prosecution to conduct the trial in the case. She pleaded that the accused have committed a cold-blooded, gruesome murder in a pre-planned and premeditated manner of the deceased.
“She has suffered an irreparable loss, and that it is of utmost importance for the intervenor to put on record the true and correct facts to assist this Court to come to a free and fair conclusion in the matter at hand,” Shehzeen said in her application, adding that there are several important aspects which require due and proper weightage.
The application emphasis on the right of the victim to be heard as held by Supreme court in numerous pleas. “It has been held that the victim is the defacto sufferer of a crime. The ethos of criminal justice dispensation to prevent and punish crime should not surreptitiously turn its back on the victim. The jurisprudence with respect to the rights of victims to be heard and to participate in criminal proceedings began to positively evolve,” reads the plea.
Siddique, 66, was killed on October 12, 2014, near his son Zeeshan Siddique’s office in Bandra. Three assailants allegedly part of Bishnoi’s gang had opened fire at the car where Baba sat to leave from the office. As soon as he got into the car, the accused opened fire at him, giving no room for his guards to react. The assailants however were caught by police while they tried to escape.
Shehzeen further pleaded that, “This audacious attack, executed in one of the city’s most affluent and bustling neighborhoods, saw the assailants shoot Siddique at point blank range, before fleeing the scene, leaving behind a trail of grief and outrage for the family of the deceased,’ reads the plea.
So far, police have arrested 26 suspects in connection with the murder. The Mumbai police had, in December, submitted a chargesheet against 26 accused involved in the murder of NCP leader. The police claimed that the murder was ordered by Bishnoi, who is heading the gang.
In its chargesheet, the police claimed that the investigation revealed that the members of the gang had hatred against the Bollywood actor Salman Khan. Besides, Siddique was very close to the actor, and further, the gang wanted to establish terror and supremacy. These were the key motives behind conspiring to kill Siddique.
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