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Budget to focus on fiscal consolidation while pushing private capex

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 Union Budget 2022 will focus on gradual fiscal consolidation while pushing public capex, creating a conducive environment for private capex, and raising resources via strategic divestments, Morgan Stanley said in a report.

The budget is likely to focus on gradual fiscal consolidation, continuing to favour investment-driven growth with a push for both public and private capex, and raising additional resources through strategic divestments and asset monetization.

“Apart from this, we would be looking for clarity for Indian bonds to be included into global bond indices. Indeed, the overall focus of the government should be to utilize all revenue levers effectively (tax compliance to improve tax to GDP, strategic asset sales) to sustainably improve the health of the public sector balance sheet”, Morgan Stanley said.

The impact of the budget on the market has been on a secular decline. Nevertheless, market participants still need to negotiate volatility. Factors that will likely have maximum impact include a credible fiscal deficit target, the government’s spending plans vs fiscal consolidation, changes to long-term capital gains tax, lower taxes for the services sector, resolution of tax issues for FAR bonds, and the timing and quantum of asset sales.

The disruptions from the pandemic have weighed heavily on India’s fiscal metrics, with the central government’s fiscal deficit rising to an all-time high of 9.2 per cent of GDP in FY21. However, the story has changed in FY2022 with a positive surprise from tax revenue, which has seen improved buoyancy. As such, gross tax revenue is expected to track at 10.9 per cent of GDP in F2022 vs the budget estimate of 9.9 per cent of the GDP. As such, we expect the fiscal deficit to be at 6.8 per cent of GDP, assuming the LIC IPO is deferred to F2023. If the IPO happens in F2022, the fiscal deficit could be lower at 6.4 per cent of GDP, Morgan Stanley said.

“We expect the fiscal deficit to be 6 per cent of GDP in F2023, driven by some reduction in pandemic-related spending and continued tax buoyancy. A gradual fiscal consolidation path will also give the government flexibility to provide any additional support to the economy should Covid-related disruptions continue into F2023”, it added.

Business

Banks Expect Increased Credit Demand Across Retail, MSME, & Agricultural Segments After GST Reforms

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New Delhi: With the Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms, banks expect increased credit demand across retail, MSME, and agricultural segments as incomes rise and business investment picks up.

According to Ajay Kumar Srivastava, MD and CEO, Indian Overseas Bank, the reform will create a strong effect across the economy, leading to improved cashflows for distributors and retailers, greater working capital access for small businesses, and expanded credit requirements amid rising demand.

“Overall, this decision acts as a catalyst for inclusive growth and economic transformation aligning itself to India’s vision of Viksit Bharat”, said Srivastava. This move makes taxation more transparent and easier to follow. “We expect these measures will drive an estimated growth in consumption over 8-10 per cent in the next two quarters in rural markets, particularly benefiting farmers through reduced costs on agricultural products where GST has been brought down from the 12 per cent to 5 per cent,” according to Srivastava.

The price cuts on daily essentials like dairy products, household items, and consumer durables will provide more relief and reduce the burden to the consumers. The reduced GST on vehicles, electronics, and housing materials will create demand for these segments, while making insurance policies completely tax-free will enhance financial inclusion.

According to Sanjay Agarwal, Senior Director, CareEdge Ratings, GST rate cuts result in a decrease in the final price of goods and services, which enhances consumer purchasing power and could stimulate demand across various sectors.

The impact is generally visible in the consumer durables segment. Lower GST rates on automobiles, electronics, and appliances not only make these products more affordable but also expand the addressable market to include price-sensitive consumers who were previously priced out.

“Banks could see an increase in auto loans, personal loans for electronics purchases,” he mentioned. Outstanding housing loans, vehicle loans, credit card and consumer durables account for around 16.7 per cent, 3.5 per cent, 1.6 per cent and 0.1 per cent of banking credit, respectively.

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Auto Stocks Zoom On GST Rate Cuts, Hyundai Tops Gainers As Market Anticipates Festive Season Boost

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Mumbai: On Friday, auto stocks saw a strong rally after the GST Council’s decision to cut tax rates on small cars and motorcycles. The BSE Auto Index rose by 1.30 percent, closing at 58,883.09 points. This surge came as the market responded positively to the new two-slab GST system — 5 percent and 18 percent — announced to take effect from September 22, the first day of Navaratri.

Hyundai Motor India led the auto sector gains, rising 2.69 percent on the BSE. Other top performers included Eicher Motors (+2.43 percent), Mahindra & Mahindra (+2.34 percent), and Ashok Leyland (+2.22 percent).

Maruti Suzuki also climbed 1.70 percent, while TVS Motor went up 1.28 percent. Smaller gains were seen in Sona BLW (0.80 percent), Bharat Forge (0.77 percent), Tata Motors (0.63 percent), Bajaj Auto (0.22 percent), and Hero MotoCorp (0.21 percent).

The reduction in GST rates from 28 percent to 18 percent on many popular vehicle categories is being seen as a major positive move. It affects petrol, LPG, and CNG vehicles with engine sizes under 1,200cc and length under 4,000 mm, and diesel vehicles under 1,500cc and 4,000 mm. Two-wheelers like motorcycles under 350cc will also now attract 18 percent GST, down from the current 28 percent.

Experts believe the decision will benefit first-time buyers and middle-class families, especially during the upcoming festive season. According to Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking, the move is ‘timely and will inject fresh momentum’ into the auto sector. Industry players say this will not only boost sales but also investor confidence in automotive stocks.

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Indian stock market opens higher, Nifty above 24,700

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Mumbai, Sep 5: The Indian benchmark indices opened higher on Friday, buoyed by transformative rate reductions announced by the GST Council across sectors as buying was seen in the auto, IT and PSU bank shares in the early trade.

At around 9.38 am, Sensex was trading 140.72 points or 0.17 per cent up at 80,858.73 while the Nifty added 52 point or 0.21 per cent at 24,786.30.

Nifty Bank was up 4.05 points or 0.01 per cent at 54,079.50 The Nifty Midcap 100 index was trading at 57,291.20 after adding 332.05 points or 0.58 per cent. Nifty Smallcap 100 index was at 17,704.70 after gaining 82.75 points or 0.47 per cent.

According to analysts, Nifty indicated an optimistic positive move, with anticipation of positive cues from the GST rate outcome, which would decide the further course of the market in the coming days.

“The index would need a decisive move past the important 50EMA level at the 24,800 zone, which can trigger a fresh further upward move along with the broader markets beginning to participate to support the benchmark indices,” said Vaishali Parekh, Vice President (Technical Research), PL Capital.

The 24,500 zone shall continue to remain as the important support zone for the index, she added.

Overall, the market is showing resilience within a consolidation range. With improving technical momentum and steady domestic inflows, the near-term bias remains positive, said experts.

“Traders should adopt a buy-on-dips strategy and focus on stock-specific opportunities in leadership sectors like banking, IT, and auto,” said Mandar Bhojane from Choice Broking.

Meanwhile, in the Sensex pack, M&M, Trent, Tata Motors, Asian Paints, Power Grid and Maruti Suzuki were the top gainers. Whereas, ITC, Hindustan Unilever Limited, Sun Pharma and HDFC Bank were the top losers.

In the Asian markets, Bangkok, Japan, Seoul, Hong Kong and China were trading in green.

In the last trading session, Dow Jones in the US closed at 45,621.29, up 350.06 points, or 0.77 per cent. The S&P 500 ended with a gain of 53.82 points, or 0.83 per cent, at 6,502.08 and the Nasdaq closed at 21,707.69, up 209.97 points, or 0.98 per cent.

On the institutional front, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers as they sold equities worth Rs 106.34 crore on September 4, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) purchased equities worth Rs 2,233.09 crore.

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