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Macquarie says no signs of headwinds abating at Paytm

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Paytm. (Photo: Twitter/@Paytm)

 Foreign brokerage Macquarie said on Monday there is no signs of headwinds abating at Paytm as it slashed the target price to Rs 900.

One 97 Communications or Paytm stock was down almost 5.95 per cent on Monday at Rs 1,158.

Since November 18, 2021, Paytm’s stock price has fallen 40 per cent vs Sensex’s flat performance, Macquarie said.

Post the various business updates and results, Macquarie said revenue projections, particularly on the distribution side, is at risk and hence we pare down our revenue CAGR from 26 per cent to 2 per cent for FY21-26E.

“We are roughly cutting revenue estimates for FY21-26E on an average by 10 per cent every year due to lower distribution and commerce/cloud revenues offset partially by higher payment revenues. We cut our earnings (increase our loss projections) by 16-27 per cent for FY22-25E owing to lower revenues and higher employee and software expenses. We cut our TP sharply by 25 per cent owing to lower target multiple of 11.5x (Price to Sales ratio) (from 13.5x earlier) and lower sales numbers.”

Macquarie laid out several challenges which exist for Paytm from regulatory to business specific.

“‘The elephant in the room’- RBI’s proposed digital payments regulations could cap wallet charges. Payments business still forms 70 per cent of overall gross revenues for Paytm and hence any regulations capping charges could impact revenues significantly. Add to that, Paytm’s foray into insurance was recently rejected by the insurance regulator IRDA. We believe this could impact Paytm’s prospects of getting a banking license,” it added.

Senior management attrition is another cause of concern, it said. Senior executives have been resigning from Paytm which is a cause of concern and could impact business in our view if the current rate of attrition continues.

“Can it do lot of merchant loans? We aren’t sure,” Macquarie said.

“In the past 12 months, Paytm’s average ticket size for loans disbursed by it has been consistently coming down and stands at sub Rs 5,000 levels. At this size, we don’t think it is doing many merchant loans and most of the loans are small value BNPL loans. Hence the eventual distribution fees realised by them are likely to be much lower than our earlier estimates.

“We cut our revenue projections for FY22-26E and hence our CAGR reduces from 26 per cent to 23 per cent. The main reason is that we have pared down our commerce and particularly distribution business revenues.

“Competition will limit commerce revenue growth and distribution business will continue to be led by small ticket BNPL loans there by limiting revenue potential in our view.

“We cut our earnings projections or increase losses for FY22-26E driven by lower revenues and higher employee and software and cloud expenses. There is competition for tech talent, and we see pressure on employee expenses to remain. Key risks to our UP call are a change in regulations which allow monetisation of UPI and receipt of a banking license,” Macquarie added.

Business

Institutional investments in Indian real estate up 31 pc at $1.3 billion in Q1

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New Delhi, April 3: Institutional investments in India’s real estate sector saw a strong start to 2025, with total inflows reaching $1.3 billion in the first quarter, a new report said on Thursday.

This marks a 31 per cent increase compared to the same period last year, driven largely by domestic investors, according to the report by Colliers India.

Domestic investments played a significant role in this growth, contributing $0.8 billion, which is a 75 per cent rise on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.

These investments were mainly directed toward industrial, warehousing and office spaces. The office segment alone attracted $0.4 billion, making up one-third of the total investments.

Hyderabad emerged as a key market in this segment, drawing more than half of the office-related inflows. The residential sector also witnessed a remarkable rise, with investments almost tripling compared to the first quarter of 2024.

The segment attracted $0.3 billion, accounting for 23 per cent of total investments, a figure comparable to the industrial and warehousing sector.

Interestingly, foreign investors led the residential investment surge, contributing over half of the total inflows in this segment.

The industrial and warehousing sector continued its strong performance from 2024, recording over $0.3 billion in investments during the first quarter of 2025.

This represents a 73 per cent increase YoY, supported by rising investor confidence.

Positive macroeconomic indicators, such as India’s manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) reaching 58.1 in March 2025 — the highest level since mid-2024 — have reinforced optimism in this sector.

The robust demand, higher production, and improved business confidence have all contributed to this growth, the report said.

Mumbai emerged as the top investment destination, accounting for $0.3 billion, or 22 per cent of the total inflows in Q1 2025.

Bengaluru followed with a 20 per cent share, while Hyderabad secured 18 per cent of the investments, according to the report.

In Mumbai, mixed-use assets attracted over half of the total inflows, whereas Bengaluru saw a majority of investments in the residential sector.

City-wise data show a massive 841 per cent rise in investments in Mumbai, compared to Q1 2024, while Delhi-NCR also experienced significant growth with a 145 per cent increase.

The report also found that Bengaluru saw a steady 26 per cent rise in investments during the same period.

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National

Shiv Sena urges online ticketing platform not to provide service to Kunal Kamra

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Mumbai, April 3: Shiv Sena social media chief Rahool Kanal has urged Big Tree Entertainment Pvt Ltd (which owns the online ticketing portal BookMyShow) to refrain from providing a platform for stand-up comedian Kunal Kamra’s show.

In a letter dated April 2, Kunal said that continuing to facilitate ticket sales for his events could be perceived as an endorsement of his divisive rhetoric which may have serious repercussions for public sentiment and order in the city.

Kanal said that BookMyShow has previously facilitated ticket sales for shows featuring Kunal Kamra, an individual with a documented history of habitual criminal behaviour. “Kamra has been observed to engage in a sustained campaign of vilification and defamation, targeting the Prime Minister of India, Chief Ministers, Deputy Chief Ministers, and other public figures. These actions appear to be part of a broader criminal conspiracy, driven by ulterior motives that extend far beyond the realm of humour or satire,” he claimed.

He further stated, “Kamra’s premeditated, scripted, provocative, and malicious statements have consistently crossed ethical and legal boundaries. Such remarks not only hurt the sentiments of the public at large but also have the potential to incite public mischief and disrupt social harmony. By providing a platform for his performances, BookMyShow inadvertently lends credibility and reach to an individual whose actions threaten public order, particularly in a vibrant and diverse city like Mumbai, where your company is headquartered.”

Against this backdrop, Kanal has requested that Big Tree Entertainment and BookMyShow refrain from publishing or promoting Kunal Kamra’s shows on their platform moving forward. “I trust that, as a responsible organisation committed to the well-being of its audience and the community. BookMyShow will take this matter into serious consideration and act in the larger interest of maintaining peace and harmony,” he said.

Kanal’s letter comes amid raging controversy over Kamra referring to Deputy Chief Minister and Shiv Sena chief leader Eknath Shinde as a “traitor”.

The Mumbai Police have filed three cases against Kamra, though the Madras High Court has granted him temporary protection from arrest. Police are currently recording statements from the cameraperson and other staff present during the show’s filming. They have also assured Kamra’s safety when he appears for questioning. However, Kamra has yet to appear before the Mumbai Police to record his statement despite three summons served on him.

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National

Bengal school jobs case: SC upholds cancellation of over 25K appointments, modifies Calcutta HC directions

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New Delhi, April 3: The Supreme Court on Thursday upheld the Calcutta High Court’s order cancelling 25,753 appointments in teaching and non-teaching posts made by the West Bengal School Service Commission (WBSSC) in 2016.

Disposing a batch of petitions, including the West Bengal government’s appeal, a Bench of Chief Justice of India (CJI) Sanjiv Khanna and Justice Sanjay Kumar made certain modifications in the directions issued by the Calcutta High Court.

“The credibility and legitimacy of the selection procedure is denuded. Accordingly, we have proceeded to made some modifications in the directions issued by the Calcutta HC,” the apex court said.

It added that the challenge to the CBI probe into the creation of super-numeric posts by the West Bengal government will be listed for hearing on April 4.

On May 7, 2024, a Bench headed by then CJI D.Y. Chandrachud stayed the operation of the impugned order passed by the Calcutta High Court cancelling school jobs.

The then CJI Chandrachud-led Bench had allowed the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) to continue with its investigation into the alleged scam but restricted the agency from taking any coercive action against the candidates or officials.

In an order passed in the third week of April 2024, the Calcutta High Court nullified the appointment of the candidates selected from the expired panels and asked them to return the entire salary drawn during their tenures, along with an annualised interest of 12 per cent, within the next four weeks.

Besides directing the WBSSC to initiate the recruitment process afresh, a Division Bench of Justices Debangsu Basak and Shabbar Rashidi of the Calcutta HC also directed the probe agency to carry on with its investigation into the matter.

Taking cognisance of the state Cabinet’s decision for the creation of super-numeric posts, it had said that the CBI, if necessary, can question the masterminds behind the creation of the seats in excess of the vacant posts.

These super-numeric posts, which have remained under the cloud since the beginning, are perceived to provide room for ineligible candidates recruited illegally.

In July 2023, the apex court had set aside an interim direction passed by the Calcutta High Court terminating the service of 32,000 primary teachers and asking the West Bengal authorities to complete the recruitment process for the newly-created vacancies within three months.

Asking the Calcutta High Court to decide the appeal pertaining to the school-jobs-for-cash scam at the earliest, the Supreme Court had stressed that the opportunity for a hearing has to be given to all concerned.

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