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Greed & Fear: Profit booking, global volatility to impact stock moves

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Sky-high valuations along with global tapering fears will impact stock market movements during the upcoming week.

Accordingly, market observers, pointed out high possibility of profit booking led slide on the back premium valuations and likely absence of positive domestic triggers.

Nonetheless, key indices — S&P BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50 — are expected to reach new intra-day record highs of 60,000 points and 18,000-mark, respectively.

Last Friday, the Sensex closed at 59,015.89 points after making an intra-day record high of 59,700, while Nifty ended the day’s trade at 17,585.15 points.

It had breached the 17,790 level intra-day on last Friday.

“Broad market correction amidst high volumes gives the first hint of distribution,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities.

“An adverse US Fed meet outcome next week could accelerate the correction that is typical in September, especially in the US markets.”

According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services’ Retail Research Head Siddhartha Khemka: “Valuations are not comfortable and hence could lead to bouts of profit booking. The weak global cues on account of worry over slower economic growth and rising Delta variant cases globally would keep market oscillating between greed and fear.”

“Nervousness would be seen in the market next week ahead of Federal Reserve and ECB meeting, which could provide some indications on when the central banks will start withdrawing their monetary stimulus and start raising interest rates eventually.”

Any timelines for tapering measures in the US can potentially drive FPIs (Foreign Portfolio Investors) away from emerging markets such as India.

Significantly, the recent sizeable inflow of FPI funds has been credited to have lifted the domestic markets to record high levels.

In addition, Geojit Financial Services’ Research Head Vinod Nair said: “In the coming week, the global focus will be on the policy meetings of a few central banks including the Fed.”

“With weak US job data and inflation increasing at a slower pace, Fed is not expected to hint on taper plans in the upcoming meeting.”

Business

India Q2 FY26 earnings exceed expectations led by midcaps: Data

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Mumbai, Nov 6: The FY26 earnings season in the second quarter (Q2) exceeded expectations, driven by strong midcap performance, despite some weakness in select smallcap pockets, industry data showed.

Brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial Services reported a 14 per cent year-on-year earnings rise among companies that have declared results so far, broadly in line with expectations.

Large-cap earnings rose 13 per cent, in line with the broader universe, while mid-caps again outperformed expectations with a 26 per cent surge, supported by technology, cement, metals, PSU banks, real estate and non-lending NBFCs.

Smallcaps lagged at 3 per cent growth as private banks, non-lending NBFCs, Technology, Retail and Media weighed on performance. Even so, 69 per cent of small-caps met or beat forecasts, compared with 84 per cent of largecaps and 77 per cent of mid-caps, the data showed.

Sectoral performance analysis showed that oil and gas and cement sectors showed highest sectoral gains as state-run fuel retailers led with a 79 per cent increase in profits, while cement profits surged by 147 per cent.

Along with these sectors, technology profits rose by 8 per cent, capital goods by 17 per cent, and metals by 7 per cent, collectively accounting over 80 per cent of incremental profit growth.

Earnings for 27 Nifty firms that have reported results increased by 5 percent year-on-year, driven by HDFC Bank, TCS, JSW Steel, and Infosys while Coal India, Axis Bank, HUL, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Eternal dragged performance. Seven Nifty constituents fell short of estimates, five exceeded forecasts, and 15 met expectations.

“Earnings upgrades outnumbered downgrades for the first time in several quarters, signalling a healthier market backdrop and improving confidence in India Inc.’s profitability trajectory,” the MOFSL report said.

While headline indices remain range-bound after a muted year, underlying fundamentals are improving — supported by moderating earnings cuts, diversified sectoral leadership, and robust midcap resilience, it added.

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HM Amit Shah congratulates Amul, IFFCO for landmark achievement among world cooperatives

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New Delhi, Nov 5: It is a testament to the boundless potential of the cooperatives, Union Home Minister and Minister of Cooperation, Amit Shah, congratulated daily giant Amul and Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Limited (IFFCO) for occupying the first two ranks among the top 10 cooperatives in the world.

In a landmark achievement for India’s cooperative sector, two of India’s leading cooperatives, Amul and IFFCO, have secured the first and second ranks in the global ranking for cooperatives, respectively.

In a post on X social media platform, HM Shah said, “A proud moment for Bharat! Heartiest congratulations to Amul and IFFCO for occupying the first two ranks among the top ten cooperatives in the world”.

“It is an honour to the tireless dedication of millions of women associated with Amul and farmers contributing to the IFFCO. It is also a testament to the boundless potential of the cooperatives, which is being transformed into a global model of empowerment and self-reliance by Prime Minister Narendra Modi,” HM Shah posted.

Meanwhile, the India’s dairy sector is the backbone of rural livelihoods and a symbol of inclusive growth. As the largest milk producer in the world, India has combined farmer-led cooperatives, women’s participation and scientific practices to achieve remarkable progress.

Notably, while safeguarding existing gains, there is continued support to the sector through subsidies, credit facilities, R&D in fodder and animal health, among others, to ensure India’s dairy sector remains resilient, inclusive, and capable of meeting future domestic and international demand.

Moreover, the National Co-operative Exports Limited (NCEL), set up by the Government in 2023, has achieved the impressive milestone of exporting Rs 5,403.01 crore worth of agricultural commodities, including rice, fresh red onion, sugar, baby food, processed food, spices and tea.

Also, NCEL has been promoted by five leading co-operatives — Indian Farmers Fertiliser Co-operative Limited (IFFCO), Krishak Bharati Co-operative Limited (KRIBHCO), National Agricultural Co-operative Marketing Federation of India Limited (NAFED), Gujarat Co-operative Milk Marketing Federation (GCMMF–Amul) and the National Co-operative Development Corporation (NCDC).

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Indian stock markets closed on Nov 5 for Guru Nanak Jayanti; trade to resume tomorrow

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Mumbai, Nov 5: The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) remained closed on Wednesday on account of Prakash Gurpurb Sri Guru Nanak Dev, also known as Guru Nanak Jayanti.

Trading across segments, including equities, derivatives, securities lending and borrowing (SLBs), currency derivatives, and interest rate derivatives, stayed shut for the day.

The commodity derivatives market was also closed in the morning session between 9 am and 5 pm but will open for the evening session from 5 pm to 11:30/11:55 pm.

Regular trading on both exchanges will resume on Thursday (November 6).

On Tuesday, Indian stock markets ended lower, with the Nifty slipping below the 25,600 mark amid broad-based selling pressure.

The Sensex fell 519.34 points, or 0.62 per cent, to close at 83,459.15, while the Nifty dropped 165.70 points, or 0.64 per cent, to end at 25,597.65.

The BSE Midcap index declined 0.2 per cent, and the Smallcap index fell 0.7 per cent.

Among major Nifty stocks, Power Grid Corp, Coal India, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Bajaj Auto, and Eternal were the top losers.

On the other hand, Titan Company, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance, HDFC Life, and M&M gained during the session.

Barring telecom and consumer durable sectors, all other indices ended in the red. IT, auto, FMCG, metal, power, realty, and PSU indices slipped between 0.5 to 1 per cent.

Market analysts said that the Nifty has retested its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). A sustained move below this level could weaken the positive sentiment and extend the correction toward 25,400.

“On the higher side, 25,800 is likely to act as an immediate resistance level. Traders have been advised to remain cautious and focus on risk management until a clear market direction emerges,” experts said.

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