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2022 was ‘a defining moment’ for Turkish diplomacy

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Türkiye has been a top mediating force between Ukraine and Russia, while developing different reconciliation paths with countries from Israel to Egypt.

2022 will be remembered as the year when Russia attacked Ukraine, starting a difficult war with no end in sight and escalating tensions between the West and Moscow.  

The year has also seen some crucial peace initiatives emanating from Türkiye, a NATO member, which has a working relationship with Russia on different conflicts like Syria, aiming to find a common ground between Kiev and Moscow. 

Turkish peace efforts were fruitful with some significant results, like the landmark grain deal and exchange of prisoners of war between Russia and Ukraine. Ankara has also launched other crucial peace initiatives normalising its ties with Israel and Egypt, two important Middle Eastern states, with which its relations had deteriorated in the 2010s.

Gregory Simons, an associate professor at the Institute for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Uppsala University, believes 2022 was “a defining moment” for Türkiye, which “managed to negotiate achievements that no other country can.”

According to Simons, “the example of Ukraine as a geopolitical shatter belt between US and Russia has seen Türkiye take a role as an honest broker in the conflict,” which reaffirmed the country’s wisdom in establishing and developing an independent balancing and mediating role in the current era of risk and uncertainty.

Unlike many other Western states, Ankara’s hard work and persistence along political and economic tracks yielded progress like the grain shipment agreement “in a highly divisive and emotionally driven geo-economic and geopolitical conflict,” showcasing Ankara’s growing position as a subject and not an object of events, Simons tells TRT World.

In 2022, Türkiye emerged as “the world’s most important peace actor that left its mark on the year,” says Mesut Hakki Casin, a professor of international law at Yeditepe University, referring to Turkish efforts to address the Ukraine conflict.

“While Turkey successfully demonstrated its neutrality policy in the Ukraine war, just as it did in the Second World War, it played the role of mediator in the conflict as stipulated in the 33th article of the UN,” Casin tells TRT World. During WWII, Ankara stayed neutral between Nazi Germany-led Axis countries and the Allied forces, avoiding any casualties.

Ukraine policy:

Despite much pressure from the US and Europe, Türkiye has refused to be part of Western sanctions on Russia, believing that talking with Moscow is better than isolating it. But at the same time, Türkiye has urged Russia to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, fiercely defending Kiev’s territorial integrity.

The Ukraine war has shown that “Türkiye in the 21st century pursues a fundamentally different foreign and security path than that played during the Cold War,” says Simons. In this path, Ankara acts as a bridge between the Western-centric and non-Western-centric worlds, he says.

Unlike the past, when Ankara followed a passive foreign policy, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Türkiye has demonstrated the country’s political and military potential in the international arena from Ukraine to Central Asia.

“Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the only leader capable of talking with both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, working to develop a rapprochement between the two sides,” says Casin.
Beyond Turkish mediation efforts, Ankara has also taken a crucial step to close its straits to both Russian and NATO warships in alignment with the Montreux Convention, which regulates the status of Turkish channels. “With this crucial measure, Türkiye has prevented the spread of the Ukraine war to other areas particularly in the Black Sea,” says Casin.

This measure also crucially led to setting demarcations in the conflict between Russia and the West, limiting tensions between the two sides, according to the Turkish professor.

Yasar Sari, an expert at Haydar Aliyev Eurasian Research Center of Ibn Haldun University, also believes that Türkiye’s diplomatic efforts “have kept the Ukraine conflict limited,” preventing the war from turning into a regional conflict.

Besides the Ukraine conflict, Türkiye has displayed its mediation skills in another difficult conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the Karabakh dispute, urging both Erivan and Baku to find common ground to address their differences.

In October, Erdogan played a critical role to realise an icebreaker peace talks between Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders in Prague on the sidelines of an EU meeting.

Middle East normalisations:

During 2022, Türkiye also worked hard to de-escalate tensions across the Middle East, reestablishing its ties with Egypt and Israel and strengthening its connections with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Since a 2010 Israeli raid on Mavi Marmara, a Turkish aid ship travelling toward Gaza, which had long faced blockade by Tel Aviv, Turkish-Israeli ties experienced a deteriorating trend. In 2013, Turkish-Egyptian diplomatic ties were cut off after a coup led by general-turned-President Abdul Fattah al Sisi overthrew the country’s first democratically-elected government.

“Turkiye’s diplomatic initiatives have been very successful in opening a new page with all of the regional powers in the region. This is part of a broader trend in the region of trying to maintain diplomatic channels open among the major players,” says Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), an Israeli think-tank.
“The normalisation process with Israel has been noteworthy for the fact that contrary to the 2016 normalisation effort, this time around there were many more high-level visits, indicating that there is a more solid ground for the current normalisation,” Lindenstrauss tells TRT World.

In March, Israeli President Isaac Herzog met with Erdogan in a groundbreaking visit to Türkiye. In September, another high-level meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Erdogan was held at the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Erdogan also indicated that he wanted to visit Israel after the November elections.

This high-level meeting approach to solidify ties between Türkiye and other states has also been obvious in Ankara’s normalisation process with Egypt. Last month, Erdogan met Sisi in Qatar saying that “there should be no resentment in politics,” referring to past tensions between the two states following the Arab Spring rebellions.

It’s an approach that could go further in the turbulent Middle East. “In the next period, just as it (Türkiye) has entered a (normalisation) path with Egypt, it can also enter another (normalisation) path with Syria,” the Turkish president said. Ankara-Damascus ties have been cut off in the wake of the Syrian civil war, seeing millions of refugees flowing to Türkiye.

During 2022, Erdogan also met UAE leader Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi and Mohammed Bin Salman in Ankara, showing his commitment to strengthening formerly strained ties with the two Gulf countries.
According to Lindenstrauss, Ankara’s normalisation with Israel indicates the depths of ongoing Turkish diplomatic efforts in the Middle East.

International News

Iran rules out compromise on nuclear enrichment rights, slams US ‘warmongering’ in Hormuz

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Tehran, April 16: Iran will not compromise on its nuclear enrichment rights, said the country’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baqaei, adding that its entitlement to nuclear energy is firmly grounded in international law and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), state media reported on Thursday.

Addressing a press conference in Tehran, Baqaei dismissed what he described as baseless speculation in Western media regarding Iran’s enrichment programme, stressing that the country’s legitimate rights, as recognised under international law, are non-negotiable, reports the country’s official news agency IRNA.

He underlined that the right to peaceful enrichment is neither a favour nor a concession granted by any external power that can be withdrawn under pressure or during times of conflict.

As long as Iran remains a signatory to the NPT, he said, it must be able to fully benefit from the treaty’s provisions.

Responding to reports about alleged enrichment-related discussions during recent Iran-US negotiations held in Pakistan, Baqaei clarified that any potential agreement must first establish a comprehensive framework. He noted that until the broader terms are settled, discussions on specifics — particularly on sensitive matters involving war and peace between Iran and the United States — would be premature.

In another part of his remarks, Baqaei rejected claims that Iran had reduced or halted its support for the Lebanese resistance. He stated that Iran has consistently backed what he termed the country’s legitimate resistance and that ending the war in Lebanon was a key component of the ceasefire understanding discussed during the Islamabad talks.

He alleged that the other side, referring to Israel, failed to honour that aspect of the ceasefire from the outset. However, Iran has remained committed to its position and continues to pursue the issue seriously in ongoing diplomatic engagements, he said.

Baqaei further explained that under any agreement, if one party violates its commitments, the other party is entitled to proportionately scale back its own obligations. He described as “completely false” any claims suggesting that Iran has neglected resistance fronts in Lebanon despite its stated commitments under the ceasefire understanding.

Commenting on a European proposal to establish a United Nations-led coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz, Baqaei said Iran, as a littoral state, along with regional partners, is fully capable of ensuring the security of the vital waterway.

He added that Iran has historically acted as a guardian of security in the Strait of Hormuz and claimed that the only disruptions witnessed in the past 40 days have stemmed from what he described as an imposed war involving the United States and Israel.

Baqaei cautioned that any foreign intervention in regional affairs would further complicate the situation. He also expressed satisfaction that several European countries have not, in his view, fallen into what he termed a trap set by the US and Israel, reports IRNA.

He reiterated that Iran, in cooperation with regional nations, can maintain stability in the Strait of Hormuz, provided that US involvement and what he described as warmongering in the region come to an end.

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International News

Trump says second round of Iran talks possible in days

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Washington, April 15: US President Donald Trump said a second round of direct talks with Iran could take place “over the next two days,” signalling a possible diplomatic opening even as the United States presses ahead with a naval blockade targeting Iranian-linked shipping.

In an interview with The New York Post, Trump said negotiations could happen soon and pointed to Pakistan as a possible venue. “Something could be happening over the next two days, and we’re more inclined to go there,” he said, referring to Islamabad.

The comments came after an earlier round of talks failed to yield a breakthrough. Trump suggested initial plans had pointed to Europe before shifting towards Pakistan.

The diplomatic push comes alongside heightened tensions in the Gulf. US Central Command said that no ships from Iranian ports passed through its blockade in the first 24 hours. Six merchant vessels complied with US instructions and turned back towards Iranian ports in the Gulf of Oman.

Shipping data showed a more mixed picture. Several Iran-linked vessels were tracked moving through the Strait of Hormuz after the blockade began, though some appeared to stop or change course after entering open waters.

More than 20 commercial ships not linked to Iran transited the strait in the same period, including tankers and cargo vessels. That suggests traffic through the key waterway has not been fully disrupted.

Vice President JD Vance said in Georgia that Washington is seeking a broader agreement with Tehran. He said the United States wants Iran to prosper economically, but only if it commits to not developing a nuclear weapon.

Diplomatic activity is also under way elsewhere in the region. Israel and Lebanon agreed to “launch direct negotiations” after rare face-to-face talks in Washington, in a move seen as part of wider efforts to stabilise tensions linked to the Iran conflict.

The United Nations has urged continued engagement. Secretary-General António Guterres said talks between Washington and Tehran are likely to resume and called for sustained diplomatic efforts.

Markets reacted quickly to the prospect of renewed talks. US crude futures fell nearly 8 per cent to their lowest level in weeks, reflecting hopes that tensions could ease and energy flows stabilise.

Still, uncertainty remains over the blockade and its enforcement. The Strait of Hormuz carries a significant share of global oil shipments, making it a critical chokepoint for energy markets.

The US-Iran standoff follows decades of strained relations centred on Tehran’s nuclear programme and regional role. Previous efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear activity in exchange for sanctions relief have repeatedly stalled.

Any sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has historically led to volatility in oil prices and raised concerns about global energy security.

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Crime

Dawood-linked fake currency syndicate goes local as border routes tighten

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New Delhi, April 14: Indian agencies have reported a sharp rise in counterfeit currency seizures, pointing to a renewed push by organised networks to expand operations.

Investigators say the syndicate linked to Dawood Ibrahim, operating from Pakistan, is increasingly directing operatives in India to print fake notes locally instead of relying on cross-border smuggling routes through Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The trend points to a deliberate attempt to scale up production, with signs of a coordinated effort to undermine the Indian economy. Recent months have seen multiple seizures in border regions due to tighter security. At the same time, attempts to drop counterfeit currency using drones are being detected and intercepted with increasing frequency.

An Intelligence Bureau official said that the syndicate is now directing its operatives in India to print fake notes locally and circulate them within the market. They have been advised to keep operations small but frequent to maintain overall volume while avoiding attention.

“To reduce the risk of detection, members are also shifting bases regularly, making it difficult for agencies to track and pin down a single location,” the official added.

The route through the Bangladesh border has also become increasingly difficult for smugglers to use. Enhanced security measures have tightened surveillance, making it harder for operatives to push counterfeit currency into India.

Another official said the strategy now is to expand printing across multiple states, including Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Punjab. In the past, the syndicate had set up a localised unit in Malda, West Bengal, where high-quality counterfeit notes were produced and were difficult to detect.

“However, after the unit was uncovered, intensified action by agencies led to a sharp decline in operations,” the official said.

Another official said printing capacity in Malda has dropped by more than half after agencies, including the National Investigation Agency (NIA), intensified investigations and enforcement.

Officials added that efforts are underway to push in raw materials needed to set up fresh units to expand local production. If these consignments reach operatives in India, output could increase again. Even as the focus shifts to domestic printing, attempts to move counterfeit currency across the border using drones are expected to continue.

Last month, the Border Security Force (BSF) and Amritsar Police seized counterfeit currency worth Rs 2.5 lakh, which officials believe may have been a trial run. While drones have been intercepted carrying drugs, arms, and ammunition on several occasions, their use for moving fake currency has emerged as a growing concern.

Agencies said the syndicate is now relying on smaller consignments that are harder to detect on radar and surveillance systems. An official noted that operatives are adopting varied methods to increase the circulation of counterfeit notes.

Even as local production gathers pace, the use of drones is expected to continue. The broader objective, officials said, is to generate funds for terror activities and to inflict economic damage through the sustained circulation of fake currency.

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