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With new lifetime highs expect heightened volatility

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Friday the 16th of June was a red-letter day for the markets in India as they made new lifetime closing highs on both the BSESENSEX and NIFTY. While the closing highs have been made, we still need about 200 points on BSESENSEX and 60 points on NIFTY to beat the intraday highs. This is a small number and could happen on just the next positive day that markets witness. Normally these happen within a day or two of the closing highs whether before or after.

BSESENSEX gained 758.95 points or 1.21 per cent to close at 63,384.58 points while NIFTY gained 262.60 points or 1.41 per cent to close at 18,826.00 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.65 per cent, 1.78 per cent and 1.88 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 2.95 per cent and closed at 28,331.32 points. Similarly, BSESMALLCAP gained 2.87 per cent and closed at 32,293.19 points.

The two MIDCAP and Smallcap sectors have been outperformers and have gained 21.1 per cent and 23.5 per cent from the lows made in March 2023. Against this the rise in BSESENSEX has been 11 per cent and 11.87 per cent in NIFTY respectively. Our markets gained on four of the five trading sessions and lost on one.

The Indian Rupee gained 53 paisa or 0.64 per cent to close at Rs 81.93 to the US Dollar. The US FED in its policy meeting decided to keep interest rates unchanged in a band of 5-5.25 per cent. Dow Jones during the week gained on three of the five sessions and was up 422.34 points or 1.25 per cent to close at 34,299.12 points.

In primary market news, shares of Ikio Lighting Limited listed on the bourses on Friday (June 16). The company had tapped the capital markets with its fresh issue for Rs 350 crore and an offer for sale of 90 lakh shares in a price band of Rs 270-285. Shares listed at Rs 391 on BSE and Rs 392.50 on NSE. They closed day one at Rs 403.75, a gain of Rs 118.75 or 41.67 per cent on BSE and at Rs 403.85, a gain of Rs 118.85 or 41.70 per cent on NSE.

The week ahead sees one IPO tap the capital markets. HMA Agro Industries Limited is tapping the capital markets with its fresh issue of Rs 150 crore and an offer for sale of Rs 330 crore in a price band of Rs 555-585. The issue opens on Tuesday (June 20) and closes on Friday (June 23). The issue would raise Rs 480 crore.

HMA Agro Processors is one of India’s largest buffalo meat processors and exporter. The company has also started exporting basmati rice and frozen fish. The company has six plants spread across the Northern and Western part of India with the Haryana plant recently set up being the largest capacity and most modern processing plant anywhere in South East Asia. The plant has a capacity of 570 tons per day.

The entire product of the company is exported to over 40 countries globally. It markets its products under its own brand name. The company HMA Agro exports over 10 per cent of India’s buffalo meat exports and is currently one of the top three largest exporters doing so. The company enjoys a decent reputation amongst its customers and being a food item is highly regulated by both the exporting country and the importing country.

The idea of entering rice and fisheries is to extend the food basket and also as the buyer is the same. The company sells to wholesalers and is a B-to-B player. Further India’s exports of Rice and Buffalo meat form the top and the second topmost item of export in the Agri basket.

The company reported revenues of Rs 3,083 crore for the year ended March 2022 and a net profit of Rs 117.62 crore for the same year. The EPS for the 12 months is Rs 24.39. For the nine months ended December 2022, the company reported revenues of Rs 2,370 crore and a profit after tax of Rs 113.24 crore. The EPS on a non-annualised basis is Rs 22.96.

The Haryana plant which would effectively double the capacity of the company has started commercial operations since January 23 and the current year 23-24 would be the first full operation of the company. The PE band of the issue based on the 12 months, March 22 number is 22.76-23.99. If one were to annualise the nine months earnings for the period ended December 22, the EPS would be Rs 30.6. The resultant PE band would be 18.13-19.1.

There are two upsides that an investor putting his money in HMA Agro Industries is betting on. The first is the growth in the business with the company doubling its capacity from 2 lakh tons to 4 lakh tons. The biggest is the price differential between the price at which India exports its meat to the world and the international price of wheat earned by countries like Brazil and Australia. The difference is huge with India setting the floor at $2.85 per kg and Brazil at $4.45 per kg. The US is at a much higher $7.06. If the gap is narrowed it will increase the profitability significantly.

The company offers an investment into the meat segment which is a 100 per cent export item and highly regulated by the animal husbandry department. It offers decent returns for investors.

The FPO from Adani Enterprises and the fallout of the Hindenburg report are now over four months old. A lot of water has flown under the bridge and prices have moved. Adani Enterprises had fallen from Rs 3,500 to Rs 1,017 and are now around Rs 2,500. Significant opportunity for smart investors to make money. One thing to remember is that 3/4th of Adani’s businesses have sectoral regulators.

In an interesting milestone, MRF has become the first company in India to have its share price touch the one lakh mark. Its share price touched the 1 lakh mark for the first time on Tuesday (June 13) and closed at Rs 99,980.35 on Friday on the BSE. The market cap of the company is Rs 42,403 crore.

Markets have made their lifetime closing highs and would also do so on an intraday basis shortly. What next? There is a 3 per cent spill over which naturally and normally does happen. This would mean about 2,000 points on the BSESENSEX and 600 points on NIFTY. Markets would tend to be volatile with sharp intraday moves in both directions. The midcap and Smallcap space which have been outperformers would continue to rule the roost. The strategy for the week ahead would be to play in the midcap and Smallcap space and watch out for any signs of reversal. Even corrections at such stages in the market are swift. There would also be a retest of market highs once there is a reversal at the top. In short, elevated levels and unchartered territory is the reason for wild movement. Trade cautiously.

Business

India-EFTA trade pact opens new opportunities for Norwegian investment across key sectors

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India’s strong economic growth trajectory and the implementation of the India-EFTA Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA) are creating significant opportunities for Norwegian investors, particularly in manufacturing, renewable energy, infrastructure, financial services and the digital economy, according to industry insights.

With GDP growth projected to remain around 6.5 per cent annually through 2030, India is widely expected to become the world’s third-largest economy by the end of the decade, according to EY India report.

Analysts attribute this outlook to strong domestic consumption, rising investments, ongoing infrastructure development and reforms aimed at improving the ease of doing business.

The India-EFTA TEPA, which came into effect in October 2025, is being viewed as a major milestone in India-Norway economic relations.

The agreement seeks to promote trade liberalisation, facilitate investment flows and deepen cooperation in areas such as innovation, sustainability and advanced technologies.

The pact includes investment commitments of $100 billion over 15 years and is expected to support the creation of one million direct jobs in India, aligning with the country’s broader goals of expanding manufacturing capacity and strengthening its position in global value chains.

Industry experts believe the agreement creates a strong framework for Norwegian companies to expand their presence in India by combining Norway’s expertise in technology, sustainability and capital-intensive industries with India’s large market and growth ambitions.

Several sectors have been identified as priority areas for collaboration, including manufacturing, renewable energy, oil and gas, maritime services, seafood processing, information and communication technology (ICT), fintech and financial services. These industries are expected to benefit from increasing bilateral cooperation under the TEPA framework.

The rapid expansion of India’s digital economy and digital payments ecosystem is also creating opportunities for Norwegian companies seeking exposure to one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing consumer markets.

At the same time, India’s policy measures aimed at attracting foreign investment are expected to provide a supportive environment for long-term investors, as per the report.

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Delhi protests put business worth Rs 400 crore at daily risk, exposure may reach Rs 4,000 crore in 10 days: CAIT

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Protests in Delhi could put business transactions worth over Rs 400 crore at risk every day, with the potential exposure reaching Rs 4,000 crore over ten days if disruptions persist, Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) Secretary General and Chandni Chowk MP Praveen Khandelwal said on Sunday.

Expressing concern over the economic impact of prolonged protests, Khandelwal said disruptions to traffic, transportation, customer movement and market accessibility could significantly affect the capital’s commercial activities, particularly during the crucial festive and wedding season.

He clarified that the figures represent indicative estimates of business activity at risk and not verified actual losses.

According to Khandelwal, Delhi’s estimated average daily business turnover stands at approximately Rs 2,200 crore. Even a 10 per cent decline in business activity could affect transactions worth Rs 220 crore daily, while a 15 per cent decline could put Rs 330 crore at risk. If the disruption reduces business activity by 20 per cent, the amount at risk could rise to Rs 440 crore per day.

Based on these estimates, the cumulative exposure could approach Rs 4,000 crore over ten days if disruptions continue at the higher end of the projected range.

Khandelwal emphasised that while the Constitution guarantees citizens the right to freedom of speech and peaceful assembly, traders must also be able to conduct their businesses and earn their livelihoods without avoidable disruptions.

“Delhi is not merely the national capital; it is one of the country’s most important centres of wholesale distribution, retail trade and commercial activity. Its markets connect manufacturers, distributors, retailers and consumers across India. Any prolonged disruption in Delhi therefore has a cascading impact on supply chains, business transactions and livelihoods far beyond the city,” Khandelwal said.

“The right to protest and the right to trade are both integral to a functioning democracy. Protecting one should not mean disregarding the other. The larger public interest demands a responsible approach in which democratic expression, the rule of law, economic activity and the livelihood of millions of people are all duly respected,” Khandelwal noted.

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TN announces Rs 2 per kg incentive for cooperative ration shop onion sales

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Salespersons at ration shops run by cooperative societies will receive an incentive of Rs 2 for every kilogram of onions sold under an initiative aimed at controlling retail prices and ensuring access to quality produce at reasonable rates.

The incentive was announced in a procedural order issued by Registrar of Cooperative Societies, Latha. It recognises the additional responsibilities undertaken by salespersons handling onion distribution alongside their regular ration shop duties.

According to the order, onions were procured in three phases from the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) and the National Cooperative Consumers’ Federation of India (NCCF). The procurement was undertaken to help check rising onion prices in the open market. The onions are being sold to the public through ration shops operated by cooperative societies.

The arrangement is intended to make quality onions available at fair prices while using the existing cooperative distribution network to reach consumers.

Under the order, the incentive payable to each salesperson will depend on the quantity of onions sold. The prescribed rate is Rs 2 per kilogram, linking payment directly to the volume handled through sales at the participating shops.

The Registrar’s order lists several additional tasks associated with the initiative. These include receiving onion consignments, storing the produce, sorting it, weighing quantities for customers, conducting sales and maintaining the related sales accounts. These responsibilities involve work beyond the routine distribution of ration commodities.

The incentive is intended to encourage salespersons to undertake the additional duties required to carry out onion sales through cooperative outlets. The amount due to eligible salespersons will be credited directly to their bank accounts through the Electronic Clearing Service (ECS), according to the order.

Payments will therefore be made through bank transfers based on the quantity sold. The measure combines consumer relief with an incentive for the staff responsible for implementing the sales programme.

While the procurement and distribution arrangement seeks to contain the impact of higher market prices, the additional payment acknowledges the work involved at the retail level. The order specifies a uniform incentive rate for onion sales conducted through the participating cooperative ration shops.

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