Mumbai: The 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections have captured the nation’s attention, with exit polls projecting a potential victory for the ruling BJP-led Mahayuti alliance. If these predictions hold, the implications could ripple far beyond the state, reshaping political alliances and strategies.

Of the nine exit polls released after Wednesday’s polling, six forecast a clear majority for the Mahayuti, while two favor the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The remaining survey predicts a hung assembly, adding intrigue to an already charged political atmosphere.

Exit Polls

Surveys conducted by Poll Diary, Chanakya Strategies, Matriz, People Pulse, P-Marg, and CNX indicate that the Mahayuti will secure a comfortable majority, with seat projections ranging from 122 10 195. In contrast, SAS Group and Electoral Age give the edge to the MVA, projecting between 147 and 155 seats. Lok Shahi Marathi-Rudra stands apart, suggesting a hung assembly with both alliances within striking distance of forming the government. Poll Diary predicts the Mahayuti winning between 122 and 180 seats, with BJP emerging as the single largest party with 77-108 seats.

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction is expected to secure 27-50 seats, while Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction might claim 18-28. On the other hand, the MVA could win 69-121 seats, with Congress (28-47), Shiv Sena (UBT) (16-35), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (25-39) splitting the tally. Chanakya Strategies suggests the BJP crossing 90 seats, while Shinde’s Sena and Pawar’s NCP faction may win 48 and 22 seats, respectively. The MVA’s Congress faction could secure 63 seats, Thack- erays Sena 35, and Pawar’s NCP around 40.

The CNX survey provides one of the highest estimates for Mahayuti, predicting 160–179 seats against the MVA’s 110–119. Conversely, the SAS Group and Electoral Age buck the trend, forecasting an MVA majority, with Congress as the dominant party in its fold. The Maharashtra elections have been characterized by shifting political allegiances and a highly polarized campaign.

Impact Of Splits

Splits in both the Shiv Sena and the NCP have significantly influenced the electoral landscape, with the BJP deftly maneuvering to capitalize on these divisions. Ajit Pawar’s defection from Sharad Pawar’s NCP has bolstered the Mahayuti’s urban and semi-urban appeal, while Eknath Shinde’s leadership has sought to consolidate rural and middle-class votes. The BJP’s campaign has centered on economic stability and infrastructure development, positioning itself as a harbinger of continuity and growth. On the other hand, the MVA, comprising the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction, has tried to portray itself as a viable alternative, focusing on farmer distress, unemployment, and regional disparities. However, internal fractures and an inability to present a united front have undermined its appeal in crucial swing regions.

The 58.43% voter turnout, slightly lower than previous polls, indicates heightened interest in rural constituencies, traditionally seen as swing zones. The areas often determine the final outcome, and Mahayuti’s robust rural outreach could prove decisive. Exit polls suggest urban areas, particularly Mumbai and Pune, have leaned towards the BJP-led alliance, reflecting its resonance with middle-class and youth voters. However, the MVA has found support in agrarian districts, where anti-incumbency and dissatisfaction with government schemes are palpable. A decisive victory for the Mahayuti would bolster the BJP’s momentum ahead of the general elections, reaffirming its dominance in India’s political heartland.

A Key Battleground

Maharashtra, with its 48 parliamentary seats, is a key battleground for any national coalition, and a BJP-led sweep in the assembly could significantly influence Lok Sabha dynamics. Moreover, a Mahayuti win could further marginalize opposition parties like Congress and the NCP, which are already struggling to remain cohesive. It would also validate the BJP’s strategy of co-opting regional leaders like Ajit Pawar and Shinde, signaling a shift in how regional coalitions are formed and sustained. For the MVA, a strong performance could reinvigorate its standing as a formidable opposition bloc. It would demonstrate that voter dissatisfaction with the BJP’s policies can translate into tangible electoral gains, energizing anti-BJP forces across India.

All Eyes On The Final Tally

As counting day approaches on November 23, all eyes will be on the final tally. If the Mahayuti secures a decisive majority, it will not only cement the BJP’s position in Maharashtra but also reshape the national political landscape. Conversely, a surprise victory for the MVA or a hung assembly could pave the way for post-poll alliances, injecting further uncertainty into the political narrative. Ultimately, the Maharashtra elections have underscored the dynamic interplay of local and national politics, offering a preview of the strategies and alliances that will define India’s electoral future.

Mumbai: Worli has emerged as one of the focal points in the election. Sitting MLA Aaditya Thackeray from Shiv Sena (UBT) faces a formidable challenge from the Shiv Sena (Shinde) and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), making the contest intense and unpredictable.

In 2019, 47.98% of the voters in Worli cast their ballots. This time, a voter turnout of 52.78% was recorded. For Thackeray, the 2024 election is vastly different from his 2019 campaign, when he secured an easy victory. This time, he faces stiff competition from two prominent leaders representing major parties: The Shiv Sena (Shinde) has fielded Milind Deora, and the MNS has nominated Sandeep Deshpande.

Allegations Made By MNS Leader Sandeep Deshpande

Deshpande has alleged that a fake letter claiming MNS’ support for the Mahayuti alliance was circulated in Worli by Shinde Sena workers. This led to a scuffle between MNS workers and supporters of the Sena. Following the incident, MNS officials visited Agripada Police Station to lodge a complaint. Adding to the tension, MNS cadres allegedly slapped a former corporator of the Shinde Sena over the distribution of the fake leaflet.

Deshpande Files Complaint Against Shinde Faction Member Rajesh Kusale

Deshpande subsequently filed a complaint against Shinde faction member Rajesh Kusale for allegedly circulating the fabricated letter in the name of MNS chief Raj Thackeray.

Voice Of Voters

Rajesh Pachku Koli, a resident of Worli, expressed his concerns about the election environment, stating, “I cast my vote every time. This time, I voted for a genuine candidate. One party fielded a candidate just to oppose others without a development agenda, while another distributed large sums of money to buy votes and added fake names to the voting list. I voted for someone who does real work, not one with just money.”

Kishor More, another voter, said, “I feel disappointed because Maharashtra’s politics has become dirty. There are no ethics left. No one talks about development; there is inflation, and political leaders divert people’s attention. Some political parties lure voters and fight to take credit for any work. I stand with the true candidate.”

“Politics has changed a lot. In my generation, there were at least some ethics. Now, there are no ethics left,” 80- year-old Shankar Mahadik said.

“Anyone can join any party and even contest from parties with totally opposite ideologies. Almost all are the same; no ideology remains – it’s all about power. Still, I remain optimistic. As a senior citizen, I believe in change. I cast my vote for the candidate who is the least bad and the most good.”

Residents of more than 35 chawls in Worli BDD initially decided to boycott the election, citing unresolved issues related to BDD redevelopment. However, with just hours left for voting, they withdrew their decision after receiving assurances about resolving their concerns. Consequently, residents turned out to cast their votes.

While voter turnout in Mumbai for the state assembly election was generally low, Bhandup West, part of the Mumbai North East constituency, saw notably higher participation. This constituency has been at the center of intense political attention due to the high-stakes battle between both factions of Shiv Sena-sitting MLA from Shiv Sena (UBT), Ramesh Korgaonkar, and former MLA from Shiv Sena (Shinde), Ashok Patil. 

The Mumbai North East Lok Sabha constituency comprises six state assembly constituencies: Mulund, Vikhroli, Ghatkopar West, Ghatkopar East, and Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar. On election day, voter turnout was notably higher, with long queues seen outside polling centers in the Bhandup area, particularly in Sonapur and Tembipada. Bhandup has long been a stronghold of Shiv Sena, primarily due to its Marathi-speaking voter base. Following the division of Shiv Sena in 2022, Bhandup West will witness its first direct contest between the two factions of the party. Besides this, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena’s candidate, Shirish Sawant, is in the race, which could split the Marathi votes. To secure victory, party workers from both factions were seen actively encouraging voters to go to the polls, ensuring strong engagement from the local community.

The voter turnout in Bhandup constituency saw a significant increase during the election day. Starting at 7 PM, initial enthusiasm led to more than 10% turnout in the first two hours. This momentum was maintained through the early afternoon, with first-time voters and senior citizens actively participating. However, turnout slowed during the midday hours due to the intense heat, with voter participation remaining between 38% to 48%. After 3 PM, there was a noticeable surge in enthusiasm, especially in areas like Sarvoday Nagar, Ganesh Nagar, and Subhas Nagar, where voters started coming out in greater numbers. By 5 PM, the voters turnout reached 60%, showing a marked increase compared to previous elections in the constituency.

Voters turnout:

Mumbai North East

Voting percentage till 5pm

155 Mulund 52.2

156 Vikhroli 53

157 Bhandup (West) 60.18

169 Ghatkopar (West) 56.36

170 Ghatkopar (East) 51.67

171 Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar 47.46