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Want Paytm in my portfolio, says valuation guru Aswath Damodaran

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Aswath-Damodaran

India’s leading digital payments and financial services platform Paytm is heading for a market debut with an aim to raise $2.2 billion, which is touted to be India’s largest IPO. And the IPO is already getting the gurus in the financial services industry excited.

Aswath Damodaran, the award-winning Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University, recently said in an interview with an Indian news channel that he would place his bets on Paytm. “Paytm has some real potential because I think this is a business which is huge, payment processing and financial services is huge. If I can get Paytm at the right price, I would want it in my portfolio,” said Damodaran.

Damodaran teaches equity valuations at Stern, and is also referred to as the “dean of valuation”.

Multiple other startups like Ola are also reported to be aiming for a stock market debut. When asked about what makes a company or sector interesting, Damodaran said, “There are two things I look for sectors that are likely to be disrupted: one is how big the market is. Financial services is a huge market, automobiles is a huge market. The other thing that I look for is the existing status quo.

“One indicator that a business is going to be disrupted is if nobody’s happy — customers are not happy, companies are not happy, regulators are not happy. Let’s face it, that’s the state of the game right now in financial services. I think there are sectors where disruption is going to come simply because things are not working the way it is right now.”

But if he had to choose between Paytm and Ola? “I would prefer Paytm to Ola because the ridesharing business is a complete disaster around the world. Ridesharing is one of those businesses where they have figured out how to grow but nobody seems to have figured out how to make money and it’s not just Ola, it’s Didi, Grab, Uber, Lyft,” he said in the interview.

Paytm offers payment services, commerce and cloud services, and financial services to 333 million consumers and over 21 million merchants, as on March 31, 2021. Paytm is India’s largest payments platform based on the number of consumers, number of merchants, number of consumer to merchant transactions and revenue, as on March 31, 2021.

Paytm is the largest payment gateway aggregator in India based on total transactions, with the widest ecosystem of payment instruments. The company’s lending business (offered in collaboration with financial institution partners), includes personal loans, merchant loans, as well as its Buy Now, Pay Later product Paytm Postpaid. Paytm’s financial institution partners disbursed 1.4 million loans in Q4FY21.

Business

Stock market cheers India-US trade deal, Sensex rallies over 2,400 points

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Mumbai, Feb 3: The Indian equity markets surged sharply by around 3 per cent early on Tuesday with broad-based buying across sectors, buoyed by the announcement of the India-US trade deal.

As of 9.25 am, Sensex added 2,421 points, or 2.97 per cent, to reach 84,088, and Nifty gained 741 points, or 2.96 per cent to settle at 25,829.

India and United States have agreed to a trade agreement under which reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods will be slashed to 18 per cent from 25 per cent, and the additional 25 per cent duty on purchases of Russian crude oil will be eliminated. The trade deal will be “effective immediately”, President Donald Trump said, following a phone call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi late on Monday, offering immediate tariff relief for India.

Main broad-cap indices posted strong gains, as the Nifty Midcap 100 surged 3.10 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 added 3.25 per cent.

All sectoral indices were showed huge gains with realty, auto, consumer durables and IT being the major gainers, up 4.47 per cent, 3.78 per cent, 3.69 per cent and 3.04 per cent, respectively.

At 18 per cent, India’s tariff rate is now lower than that of several major export-oriented Asian economies. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Taiwan and Vietnam face tariffs of 20 per cent, while Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Pakistan face tariffs of 19 per cent.

Immediate support for Nifty lies at 25,600-25,800 zone, while resistance is anchored at 26,200–26,350 zone, market watchers said.

“The dramatic announcement of the long-awaited US-India trade deal and the US decision to cut tariffs on India from 50 per cent to 18 per cent is a game changer for the Indian economy and stock markets as its delay was the single important factor weighing on the markets,” an analyst said.

According to market watchers, India’s growth rate will rise to around 7.5 per cent in FY27, assisted by higher exports to the US from the deal, and corporate earnings already on revival could accelerate to around 16 per cent to 18 per cent in FY27.

Analysts also said that the rupee will rebound sharply, adding that the combination of US-India trade deal, the EU-India trade deal and the growth-oriented Budget will boost the market sentiments. The positive sentiment could trigger immediate foreign capital inflows, potentially turning India’s Balance of Payments (BoP) position.

Large caps including banking leaders, non-banking financials, telecom, capital goods and IT, which are trading the favourites of FII can see huge inflows, market watchers said.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index gained 0.38 per cent, and Shenzhen added 0.93 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei surged 3.23 per cent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged up 0.11 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi surged 5.04 per cent.

The US markets ended largely in the green in the last trading session as Nasdaq gained 0.56 per cent. The S&P 500 advanced 0.54 per cent, and the Dow added 1.05 per cent.

On February 2, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold equities worth Rs 1,832 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 2,446 crore.

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Gold, silver continue to decline as CME margin requirements hike set to take effect

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Mumbai, Feb 2: Gold and silver extended their decline on Monday, as hike in margin requirements are set to take effect on Chicago Merchantile Exchange (CME) in the US.

MCX gold February futures fell 1.77 per cent to Rs 1,45,132 per 10 grams on an intra-day basis. Meanwhile MCX silver March futures dipped 6.88 per cent to Rs 2,47,386 per kg.

Analysts said the free fall of gold and silver from their record highs started after the US President Donald Trump selected Kevin Warsh as the next US Fed Chairman. Investors reacted negatively because Warsh is considered more aggressive on interest-rate policy than earlier chairs, they added.

The decline was further supported by a stronger U.S. dollar, higher Treasury yields, and upbeat US inflation data (PPI and core PPI). As import duty was kept unchanged in the Union Budget the domestic premium in bullion suffered, said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd.

In international markets silver could find support near $68, while gold may hold around $4,510 this week, analysts forecasted. Spot gold recovered considerably after dropping 4 per cent in early morning session on Monday, during the Asian trading hours.

“Gold has support at Rs 1,39,650 to Rs 1,36,310 zone while resistance at Rs 1,48,850 and Rs 1,50,950. Silver has support at Rs 2,48,810 and Rs 2,37,170 while resistance at Rs 2,78,810 and Rs 2,95,470,” the analyst said.

According to them, the broader market trend for COMEX gold remains constructive, even as the recent vertical rally pushed momentum indicators into overbought territory, leading to heat-driven profit booking and mild price digestion from elevated levels.

Structural supply deficits and steady industrial demand continue to underpin the bullish bias in silver. Persistent safe-haven demand, steady central-bank accumulation, and expectations of accommodative global monetary conditions continue to underpin prices of yellow metal.

A recent report from WhiteOak Capital Mutual Fund said that investors should trim precious metals allocation back to a safe‑haven allocation level, especially on the silver as its valuation had reached the most over-extended level relative to historical periods.

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New excise duty, health cess on cigarettes, pan masala to begin from Feb 1

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New Delhi, Jan 31: From February 1, the government is bringing a new tax structure for cigarettes, tobacco products and pan masala, aiming to tighten regulation and keep tax levels high on these so-called ‘sin goods’.

An additional excise duty will now be charged on cigarettes and tobacco products, along with a new health and national security cess on pan masala.

These new levies will replace the earlier system under which these products were taxed at 28 per cent GST along with a compensation cess that has been in place since the launch of GST in July 2017.

The government is also introducing a new MRP-based valuation system for several tobacco products such as chewing tobacco, filter khaini, jarda scented tobacco and gutkha.

Under this system, GST will be calculated based on the retail price printed on the packet, instead of factory value.

This move is expected to reduce tax evasion and improve revenue collection. Pan masala manufacturers will now have to take fresh registration under the new health and national security cess law starting February 1.

They will also be required to install CCTV cameras that cover all packing machines and store the video recordings for at least two years.

In addition, companies must inform excise authorities about the number of machines in their factories and their production capacity.

If any machine remains non-functional for 15 days in a row, manufacturers will be allowed to claim a reduction in excise duty for that period.

Even after the new changes, the government has ensured that the overall tax burden on pan masala, including 40 per cent GST, will remain around the current level of 88 per cent.

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