Business
This is why India’s consumer market is a $1 trillion investment opportunity
The fundamentals of the Indian economy remain strong, as RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das recently stated. India’s growth rate is among the fastest in the world, retail inflation has moderated, buffer food stocks are abundant, forex reserves are substantial, and the current account deficit is expected to remain “well within sustainable levels.”
Domestic consumption is making a strong comeback, traditionally one of the main drivers of India’s economic growth. This is great news for businesses of all sizes. Simply put, when consumers spend more, businesses have more capital to invest in, and increased liquidity throughout the system energises complementary sectors and higher-end goods and services.
But what is the significance of this surge in domestic consumption?
One, as the festive season approaches, these numbers are likely to rise even more. Between August and November, when sales of everything from two-wheelers to real estate are at their peak, Indian consumers tend to spend more. Given how quickly consumption has recovered, the figures for the next three quarters will likely be even better.
Two, for better or worse, demand continues to drive India’s growth story. In a typical fiscal year, private expenditure accounts for approximately 55 per cent of the total national GDP. Furthermore, it has a significant impact on the next major growth driver, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), which accounts for the money invested by businesses. As a result, strong domestic consumption translates unintentionally into strong economic growth.
Three, rising household consumption will boost demand for goods and services across industries, especially those involving significant amounts of “discretionary” or luxury spending. Product segments influenced by “premiumisation” trends are included in the latter. These include everything from chocolates and alcoholic beverages to laptops and headphones, as well as clothing and cosmetics. In some categories, such as automobiles, demand for premium products has outpaced demand for entry-level variants. In FY22, for example, premium car sales increased 38 per cent year on year, while lower-priced car sales increased only 7 per cent.
Why is luxury spending increasing in India?
Rising consumer incomes and purchasing power are aiding it: average per capita income has already surpassed USD 2,000 and is expected to exceed USD 12,000 by 2047. Furthermore, the rapid growth of the e-commerce sector and digital transactions has increased customer access to the luxury market. Furthermore, as consumers have become more value- and customisation-oriented, previously dominated by HNWIs, premium segments are rapidly diversifying to include Millennials and non-metro consumers. The typical cohort of HNI and NRI customers has also expanded to include affluent middle-class consumers in some segments, most notably luxury housing, due to the proliferation of remote and hybrid working models.
Furthermore, the premium product space is still in its early stages and remains largely untapped. As a result, market participants have numerous opportunities. For example, while the Indian smartphone market fell by 1 per cent year on year in H1CY22, the premium segment increased by 83 per cent. This segment, however, accounts for only 6 per cent of the total smartphone market.
As domestic consumption continues to rise, premiumisation trends will be boosted across other sectors, from quick-service restaurants (QSRs) and home products to hospitality and healthcare. This has happened before. According to Jun Nie and Andrew Palmer’s paper “Consumer Spending in China: The Past and the Future,” the threefold increase in household spending in China between 2000 and 2015 was accompanied by a sevenfold increase in spending on transportation and communication services.
So, where can investors find investment opportunities?
Discretionary consumption and premiumisation will account for a disproportionate share of growth.
Hospitality and tourism players will benefit from increased air travel, increased demand for top-tier hotels and resorts.
The automotive industry’s clientele for premium car models will become more diverse, especially as the EV revolution gains traction.
The prospects for the entertainment sector are just as promising, with people willing to pay for subscription packages and remain loyal customers even in tier-2 and tier-3 cities as long as there is content worth the money.
Companies in real estate, home-related products, and the FMCG personal care space will also benefit greatly.
The key takeaway is that Indian consumer markets will continue to be a key focus area for global public and private equity investors. Existing and new companies will generate hundreds of billions of dollars in market capitalisation.
To summarise, domestic demand will likely continue to drive India’s economic growth story, which will be increasingly influenced by the discretionary spending of a growing cohort of “premium” consumers. This trend presents an important opportunity for investors to get a head start on a veritable 21st-century gold rush.
(The views expressed in this article are personal and that of the authors. The authors head AltG, a firm that Offers Proprietary Research That Clients Leverage to Identify and Execute High Growth Capital Allocation Opportunities. You can reach them at ideas@altgind.com)
Business
Four Labour Codes are most progressive reforms for workers since Independence: PM Modi

New Delhi, Nov 21: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday said the government has given effect to the Four Labour Codes, which are one of the most comprehensive and progressive labour-oriented reforms since Independence.
“It greatly empowers our workers. It also significantly simplifies compliance and promotes Ease of Doing Business,” the Prime Minister remarked.
He said that these Codes will serve as a strong foundation for universal social security, minimum and timely payment of wages, safe workplaces and remunerative opportunities for our people, especially ‘Nari Shakti and Yuva Shakti’.
“It will build a future-ready ecosystem that protects the rights of workers and strengthens India’s economic growth. These reforms will boost job creation, drive productivity and accelerate our journey towards a Viksit Bharat,” he added.
The four labour codes include the Code on Wages, 2019, the Industrial Relations Code, 2020, the Code on Social Security, 2020 and the Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions Code, 2020, with effect from November 21, rationalising 29 existing labour laws.
With the implementation of the Labour Codes, it has now become mandatory for employers to issue appointment letters to all workers, which provides written proof to ensure transparency, job security, and fixed employment. Earlier, no mandatory appointment letters were required.
Under Code on Social Security, 2020, all workers, including gig and platform workers, will get social security coverage. All workers will get PF, ESIC, insurance, and other social security benefits. Earlier, there was only limited security coverage.
Under the Code on Wages, 2019, all workers will receive a statutory right minimum wage payment which wages and timely payment will ensure financial security. Earlier, minimum wages applied only to scheduled industries or employments; large sections of workers remained uncovered.
The Labour codes also ensure that employers must provide all workers above the age of 40 years with a free annual health check-up and promote a timely preventive healthcare culture. Earlier, there was no legal requirement for employers to provide free annual health check-ups to workers.
The codes also make it mandatory for employers to provide timely wages, to ensure financial stability, reducing work stress and boosting the overall morale of the workers. Earlier, there was no mandatory compliance for employers’ payment of wages.
The new law permits women to work at night and in all types of work across all establishments, subject to their consent and required safety measures. Women will also get equal opportunities to earn higher incomes in high-paying job roles. Earlier, women’s employment in night shifts and certain occupations was restricted.
The new codes also extend ESIC coverage and benefits pan-India – voluntary for establishments with fewer than 10 employees, and mandatory for establishments with even one employee engaged in hazardous processes.
Social protection coverage will be expanded to all workers. Earlier, ESIC coverage was limited to notified areas and specific industries; establishments with fewer than 10 employees were generally excluded, and hazardous-process units did not have uniform mandatory ESIC coverage across India.
The codes also ease the compliance burden for workers by providing for single registration, a PAN-India single license and a single return. Earlier, multiple registrations, licenses and returns across various labour laws were required.
Business
Sensex, Nifty open marginally down amid negative global cues

Mumbai, Nov 21: Indian benchmark indices opened in mild red zone on Friday, amid negative global cues and fading investor hopes of a US Fed rate cut in December.
As of 9.25 am, Sensex declined 80 points, or 0.09 per cent at 85,551 and Nifty dipped 15 points, or 0.05 per cent to 25,860.
The broadcap indices performed in line with the benchmarks, with the Nifty Midcap 100 down 0.30 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 dipped 0.34 per cent.
TCS, Asian Paints and NTPC were among the major gainers in the Nifty Pack, while losers included Hindalco, Shriram Finance, Tata Steel and ICICI Bank.
All the sectoral indices on NSE were trading in red except Nifty Auto (up 0.30 per cent). Nifty Metal down 0.79 per cent was the biggest loser.
Analysts said that India will gain if the AI trade slows down and capital begins to shift into non-AI stocks in emerging markets.
All of the major Asia-Pacific markets fell in early trading sessions after US AI and tech stocks shed value and investors lost hopes of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
The volatility of the market has increased evident by Nasdaq, the barometer of AI trading, ending the day down 2.15 per cent, crashing 4.4 per cent from the intraday peak.
“This type of market movement indicates that there will be more volatility in the future. AI stock prices may see fresh buying at lower valuations. We will need to wait and observe the course of this unstable period,” an analyst said.
The US markets ended in the red zone overnight, as Nasdaq slipped 2.16 per cent, the S&P 500 dropped 1.56 per cent, and the Dow declined 0.84 per cent.
In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index dipped 1.71 per cent, and Shenzhen dipped 2.52 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei dipped 2.31 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 2.17 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 3.94 per cent.
On Thursday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 284 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 824 crore.
Business
Indian city gas distribution firms’ operating profit to rise 8-12 pc this fiscal

New Delhi, Nov 20: City gas distribution (CGD) companies in India are projected to clock an operating profit of Rs 7.2–7.5 per standard cubic metre (scm) this fiscal — up 8-12 per cent compared with the second half of last fiscal when margins dropped because of a sudden and steep decline in gas allocation under the administered price mechanism (APM) for the compressed natural gas (CNG) segment, a report said on Thursday.
Consequently, distributors had to take recourse to the spot gas market for supply, which exerted upward pressure on cost. The companies have, thereafter, transitioned to contracted supplies, which is expected to burnish margins.
“Healthy earnings will keep leverage in check despite the proposed capital expenditure (capex) by companies. Our assessment of seven CGD companies, with 70 per cent share of total sales volume last fiscal, indicates as much,” Crisil Ratings said in its report.
CGD companies get gas on priority at lower prices under the APM from legacy gas fields to serve the domestic CNG and piped natural gas-domestic (PNG-D) segments.
Beyond APM, they procure high-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT) gas and imported regasified liquefied natural gas (R-LNG) under contracted and spot purchase mechanisms.
According to the report, in the second half of the last fiscal, APM gas allocated to the CNG segment was reduced to less than 40 per cent of the total CNG requirement, compared with 70 per cent in the first half of the last fiscal.
This led to a substantial increase in gas procurement costs as companies relied on spot purchases, which were 80-100 per cent more expensive than those under APM prices, to protect against supply disruptions.
As a result, spot purchases by volume rose to more than 15 per cent of total supplies from 5 per cent in the first half of the last fiscal.
“Against the 30 per cent reduction in APM allocation for the CNG segment, CGD companies got 15-20 per cent long-term allocations from domestic new well gas, mainly towards the end of last fiscal or early this fiscal. For the balance, they have signed additional medium- and long-term contracts, mainly for HPHT gas and R-LNG,” said Ankit Hakhu, Director, Crisil Ratings.
This will not only improve gas security but also reduce exposure to the spot market, where prices are 25-30 per cent higher on average, he added.
The report noted that realisations are steady this fiscal, following some increase in the second half of last fiscal when companies implemented price hikes to pass on increased costs to consumers, albeit partially and gradually.
However, some of the benefits of reduced gas procurement costs in the current fiscal year will be offset by an increase in other operating costs. These costs will rise as players continue to incur capex to expand gas infrastructure in existing and new geographical areas (GAs) to support volume growth.
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