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This is why India’s consumer market is a $1 trillion investment opportunity

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The fundamentals of the Indian economy remain strong, as RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das recently stated. India’s growth rate is among the fastest in the world, retail inflation has moderated, buffer food stocks are abundant, forex reserves are substantial, and the current account deficit is expected to remain “well within sustainable levels.”

Domestic consumption is making a strong comeback, traditionally one of the main drivers of India’s economic growth. This is great news for businesses of all sizes. Simply put, when consumers spend more, businesses have more capital to invest in, and increased liquidity throughout the system energises complementary sectors and higher-end goods and services.

But what is the significance of this surge in domestic consumption?

One, as the festive season approaches, these numbers are likely to rise even more. Between August and November, when sales of everything from two-wheelers to real estate are at their peak, Indian consumers tend to spend more. Given how quickly consumption has recovered, the figures for the next three quarters will likely be even better.

Two, for better or worse, demand continues to drive India’s growth story. In a typical fiscal year, private expenditure accounts for approximately 55 per cent of the total national GDP. Furthermore, it has a significant impact on the next major growth driver, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), which accounts for the money invested by businesses. As a result, strong domestic consumption translates unintentionally into strong economic growth.

Three, rising household consumption will boost demand for goods and services across industries, especially those involving significant amounts of “discretionary” or luxury spending. Product segments influenced by “premiumisation” trends are included in the latter. These include everything from chocolates and alcoholic beverages to laptops and headphones, as well as clothing and cosmetics. In some categories, such as automobiles, demand for premium products has outpaced demand for entry-level variants. In FY22, for example, premium car sales increased 38 per cent year on year, while lower-priced car sales increased only 7 per cent.

Why is luxury spending increasing in India?

Rising consumer incomes and purchasing power are aiding it: average per capita income has already surpassed USD 2,000 and is expected to exceed USD 12,000 by 2047. Furthermore, the rapid growth of the e-commerce sector and digital transactions has increased customer access to the luxury market. Furthermore, as consumers have become more value- and customisation-oriented, previously dominated by HNWIs, premium segments are rapidly diversifying to include Millennials and non-metro consumers. The typical cohort of HNI and NRI customers has also expanded to include affluent middle-class consumers in some segments, most notably luxury housing, due to the proliferation of remote and hybrid working models.

Furthermore, the premium product space is still in its early stages and remains largely untapped. As a result, market participants have numerous opportunities. For example, while the Indian smartphone market fell by 1 per cent year on year in H1CY22, the premium segment increased by 83 per cent. This segment, however, accounts for only 6 per cent of the total smartphone market.

As domestic consumption continues to rise, premiumisation trends will be boosted across other sectors, from quick-service restaurants (QSRs) and home products to hospitality and healthcare. This has happened before. According to Jun Nie and Andrew Palmer’s paper “Consumer Spending in China: The Past and the Future,” the threefold increase in household spending in China between 2000 and 2015 was accompanied by a sevenfold increase in spending on transportation and communication services.

So, where can investors find investment opportunities?

Discretionary consumption and premiumisation will account for a disproportionate share of growth.

Hospitality and tourism players will benefit from increased air travel, increased demand for top-tier hotels and resorts.

The automotive industry’s clientele for premium car models will become more diverse, especially as the EV revolution gains traction.

The prospects for the entertainment sector are just as promising, with people willing to pay for subscription packages and remain loyal customers even in tier-2 and tier-3 cities as long as there is content worth the money.

Companies in real estate, home-related products, and the FMCG personal care space will also benefit greatly.

The key takeaway is that Indian consumer markets will continue to be a key focus area for global public and private equity investors. Existing and new companies will generate hundreds of billions of dollars in market capitalisation.

To summarise, domestic demand will likely continue to drive India’s economic growth story, which will be increasingly influenced by the discretionary spending of a growing cohort of “premium” consumers. This trend presents an important opportunity for investors to get a head start on a veritable 21st-century gold rush.

(The views expressed in this article are personal and that of the authors. The authors head AltG, a firm that Offers Proprietary Research That Clients Leverage to Identify and Execute High Growth Capital Allocation Opportunities. You can reach them at ideas@altgind.com)

Business

Google to invest up to $40 billion in Anthropic amid global AI race

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New Delhi, April 25: US tech giant Google plans to invest up to $40 billion in the artificial intelligence (AI) firm Anthropic, as global technology giants accelerate their push into advanced AI models and infrastructure.

The proposed investment includes an initial $10 billion infusion at Anthropic’s latest valuation of $380 billion, with the remaining $30 billion tied to performance-based milestones, the companies confirmed, according to multiple reports.

The move has built on a multi-year partnership between the two firms, under which Google provides cloud infrastructure and access to Anthropic’s AI models, including its Claude suite.

Moreover, Anthropic also leverages Google’s custom tensor processing units (TPUs) as an alternative to widely used graphics processing units.

The latest agreement between the tech firms came amid surging demand for generative AI tools across enterprises, developers and consumers, which has placed increasing pressure on computing infrastructure.

Notably, Anthropic recently secured 5 gigawatts of compute capacity through collaborations involving Google and Broadcom, with additional expansion planned.

However, despite their collaboration, the companies remain competitors in the AI space, with Google’s Gemini models vying against Anthropic’s offerings in the rapidly evolving market.

Additionally, Google has been steadily increasing its stake in Anthropic since 2023, when it first invested $300 million for roughly a 10 per cent holding. Subsequent funding rounds pushed its total investment beyond $3 billion, with reports suggesting a stake of about 14 per cent prior to the latest deal.

The investment has underscored intensifying competition among major technology firms, which are committing tens of billions of dollars to leading AI labs such as Anthropic and rivals, including OpenAI.

Anthropic was founded in 2021 by former OpenAI researchers and has seen rapid growth in adoption of its AI products, particularly its Claude models, with annualised revenue crossing $30 billion.

The deal has followed a similar arrangement with Amazon, which recently invested $5 billion in Anthropic and committed up to $20 billion more, linked to specific commercial milestones.

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Business

India, New Zealand set to sign FTA for improved market access on April 27

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New Delhi, April 24: As India and New Zealand prepare to sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on Monday, both sides are expected to benefit from expanded trade ties and improved market access, New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has said.

Taking to the social media platform X, Luxon said, “We will sign a Free Trade Agreement with India on Monday.”

In a video message, Luxon said the agreement would improve market access for New Zealand exporters, particularly manufacturers of marine jet systems used in boats and exported to over 70 countries.

He added that the deal would help reduce trade barriers and strengthen commercial engagement between the two countries.

He also noted that certain exporters currently face tariffs while accessing the Indian market, and said the agreement would gradually ease such duties, improving competitiveness and supporting higher trade flows.

Luxon said the FTA would support increased business activity, employment opportunities and economic growth in New Zealand, while also strengthening bilateral trade linkages with India.

He added that the agreement would bring ‘more jobs, higher wages and more opportunities,’ highlighting the broader economic impact of the deal.

Once signed, the FTA is expected to expand trade and investment ties between the two countries and enhance export opportunities on both sides in a large and growing global market environment.

Earlier this month, legal verification of the New Zealand-India FTA was completed, with both countries agreeing to sign the pact on April 27 in the presence of a large contingent of business representatives, New Zealand Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay said.

In a statement, McClay described the agreement as a “once-in-a-generation opportunity,” saying it would strengthen bilateral trade relations and provide improved access to each other’s markets.

He said that amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainty, strengthening trade partnerships remains important for long-term economic stability.

McClay added that signing the FTA would allow New Zealand to formally initiate parliamentary treaty examination, enabling public scrutiny of the agreement.

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Business

Gold and silver prices slip nearly 1 pc amid geopolitical tensions

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Mumbai, Gold and silver prices started the session on a weaker note on Friday, with both precious metals declining by nearly 1 per cent in early trade on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).

Gold futures for June 5 opened 0.39 per cent or Rs 594 lower at Rs 1,51,167 per 10 grams compared to the previous close of Rs 1,51,761.

Later, the yellow metal touched an intra-day low of Rs 1,50,750, down 0.66 per cent or Rs 1,011. At the last count, it was trading at Rs 1,51,449, a decrease of Rs 312 or 0.21 per cent. During the session so far, gold has touched an intra-day high of Rs 1,51,457.

On the other hand, silver futures for May 5 declined as much as 0.95 per cent or Rs 2,313 to Rs 2,39,200, an intraday low. The white metal was trading at Rs 2,41,345, down Rs 168 or 0.07 per cent. It recorded an intraday high of Rs 2,41,382, down 0.05 per cent or Rs 131.

In the international market, precious metals also witnessed selling pressure. COMEX gold was down nearly 1 per cent at $4,684 per ounce, while COMEX silver also slipped around 1 per cent to $74.81 per ounce.

According to commodity analysts, gold and silver prices are under pressure due to a stronger US dollar, rising bond yields, and uncertainty over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

They further said that crude oil moving back above $100 per barrel has raised inflation concerns, adding to pressure on precious metals.

Moreover, Brent crude was trading at more than $100 per barrel or 2 per cent higher.

Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty also traded up to 1 per cent lower in early trade on Friday.

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