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Russia-Ukraine tensions keep crude elevated; negative for net importers

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Tensions between Russia and Ukraine continued to keep crude oil prices on the boil.

On Wednesday, brent-indexed crude oil prices traded at $94-$95 per barrel, which is at its multi-year high.

Russia is one of the world’s top producers of crude oil and any western sanctions against it will stiffen the global supply.

The ongoing crisis also assumes significance for India as it is import-dependent to fulfil its crude oil needs. The rise in crude oil prices can escalate domestic prices, thereby triggering inflation.

Crude oil prices rallied as tensions between Russia and West increased after the former ordered troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, leading to supply concerns, brokerage house ICICI Securities said.

“Furthermore, oil prices rallied after US and EU discussed potential sanctions on Russia. EU proposed a ban on buying Russian bonds and sanctions on three Russian banks…”

That said, however, further upside in prices was capped on optimism that reviving Iran’s nuclear agreement may bring more oil into the market, the brokerage firm said.

“The global price of oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) is likely to rise sharply in the event of a conflict, which will be positive for the relatively few exporters in the Asia Pacific region and negative for the substantially greater number of net energy importers,” said Michael Taylor, Managing Director, Moody’s Investors Service in a note.

However, a mitigating factor is that several Asian economies have long-term supply contracts in place for LNG which will limit the impact of fluctuations in the spot prices, Taylor added.

“Trade effects are likely to arise from import diversion and diversification, although there may be opportunities for commodities producers in Central Asia to increase supply to China. Supply chain bottlenecks would also be aggravated, adding to inflation pressures in the region.”

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Gold, silver prices surge up to 8 pc after import duty hike

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Mumbai, May 13: Gold and silver prices on Wednesday witnessed a sharp surge of up to 8 per cent after the government more than doubled the import duty on precious metals.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (June 5) advanced as much as 7.20 per cent or Rs 11,055 to touch an intraday high of Rs 1,64,497 per 10 grams as of 9:50 am.

The yellow metal was trading at Rs 1,62,728, up 6 per cent or Rs 9,286 from the previous close. Earlier in the session, it had opened at Rs 1,54,851, rising 0.91 per cent or Rs 1,409, which also remained the intraday low so far.

Meanwhile, silver futures (July 3) also recorded strong gains during the session, jumping as much as 8 per cent or Rs 22,367 to hit an intraday high of Rs 3,01,429 per kg.

The white metal was trading at Rs 2,97,655, up 6.66 per cent or Rs 18,593 from the previous close. It had opened at Rs 2,90,224, rising 4 per cent or Rs 11,162 over the previous settlement price.

The rally in precious metals came after the Centre’s decision to increase customs duties on imports.

The government has raised the import duty, including cess, on gold and silver from 6 per cent to 15 per cent.

Meanwhile, import duty on platinum has been increased from 6.4 per cent to 15.4 per cent.

Through this move, the government aims to reduce the current account deficit and conserve foreign exchange reserves amid ongoing global uncertainty.

According to government sources, the increase in import duty on precious metals is part of a broader strategy aimed at conserving foreign exchange, safeguarding the current account, prioritising essential imports, and strengthening India’s economic resilience amid global uncertainties.

In the international market, COMEX gold rose 0.52 per cent to $4,710 per ounce, while COMEX silver gained 2.28 per cent to trade at $87.54 per ounce.

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PM Narendra Modi’s Appeal On Gold Buying Sparks Employment Concerns; More Than 1 Crore People Directly Employed In Jewellery Industry

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Mumbai: India’s gem and jewellery industry has warned that any broad reduction in gold jewellery purchases could impact employment linked to the sector, which supports over one crore people directly and several allied industries indirectly.

Responding to PM Narendra Modi’s appeal to avoid buying gold for a year amid rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia, All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC) chairman Rajesh Rokde said the industry supports the government’s national interest concerns but cautioned against measures that could hurt livelihoods.

“Whatever the Prime Minister has said is absolutely correct from the perspective of patriotism and national interest,” Rokde said.

“More than one crore people are directly employed in the industry. Insurance, banking, furniture, packaging and logistics sectors are also dependent on jewellery trade,” he said, warning that restrictions on jewellery buying could raise concerns over unemployment.

At the same time, Rokde supported discouraging bullion and coin purchases made purely for investment purposes. “Stopping unnecessary buying of bullion and coins is absolutely right,” he said.

The industry has instead urged the Centre to strengthen and modernise the Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS) to bring idle household gold into the formal economy and reduce dependence on imports.

According to Rokde, Indians are estimated to hold around 40,000 to 50,000 tonnes of gold. “If even 10-20% of this gold is monetised, India may not need to import gold for the next 10 years,” he said, adding that the GJC has already submitted an end to end monetisation proposal to the government.

GJC vice-chairman Avinash Gupta said gold remains significant for Indian households, but excessive imports also affect the current acc ount deficit and foreign exchange reserves. He said a properly regulated GMS could help channel dormant household gold into the financial system.

Meanwhile, the digital precious metals industry has launched the Digital Precious Metals Assurance Council of India (DPMACI), a self-regulatory body formed by firms including MMTC-PAMP, SafeGold, Augmont, PhonePe, BharatPe, Mobikwik, Gullak, Lenden Club and CRED to improve transparency and consumer protection in the digital gold and silver market.

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Gold surges 1.83 pc this week amid persistent tensions in Strait of Hormuz

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New Delhi, May 9: Gold prices rose 1.83 per cent during the week over persistent geopolitical uncertainty and volatile crude prices.

On Friday, MCX gold June futures gained 0.04 per cent while MCX silver May futures surged 1.34 per cent. Currently gold futures stand at Rs 1,52,589, while silver futures at Rs 2,61,999 per kg.

The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold was at Rs 1,51,078 on Friday up from Rs 1,48,357 seen on Monday market opening, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).

Precious metals continued to rise for four consecutive sessions as optimism over a potential US‑Iran peace agreement and a softer US dollar outweighed a stronger‑than‑expected US jobs report.

US jobs data showed that employment rose more than forecast in April while the unemployment rate held at 4.3 per cent, underscoring resilience in the labour market and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer.

Central banks maintaining interest rates higher for longer, could pressure non-yielding assets like gold.

In international markets, Comex gold climbed about $50 to a session high of $4,760 per troy ounce, posting a weekly gain near 1.5 per cent. Market participants said the prospect of easing regional tensions and a weaker dollar supported demand for non‑yielding bullion.

Gold and silver have fallen nearly 10 per cent since the US-Iran conflict began on February 28.

The broader safe-haven structure remains intact, though the pace of the rally has moderated as the dollar steadies and broader risk sentiment shows tentative signs of improvement, market participants said.

Despite commodities flow disruption in the Strait of Hormuz dominating the macro narrative, markets are also entering a phase of technical consolidation following the sharp swings witnessed in recent weeks, analysts said.

Precious metals are witnessing mixed price action, with gold and silver attempting to stabilise after recent corrective pressure.

West Asian tensions were rekindled on Thursday after US and Iranian forces exchanged attacks near the strait, though US officials said the ceasefire remained in place.

Immediate resistance for MCX Gold is placed at Rs 1,54,000–Rs 1,55,500, and immediate support is seen near Rs 1,50,000–Rs 1,48,000, analysts said.

For MCX Silver, the Rs 2,65,000 zone acts as immediate resistance, and the Rs 2,60,000–Rs 2,58,000 zone now serves as immediate support, they added.

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