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Rural distress, high cost subdue India’s Feb retail sales: FADA

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Rural distress as well as high acquisition cost subdued India’s February automobile retail sales on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, FADA said.

Accordingly, data released by the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) showed a YoY fall of 9.21 per cent in overall automobile retail sales during the month under review.

The overall retail sales fell to 13,74,516 units last month from 15,13,894 units sold during the corresponding month of 2021.

Also, last month’s overall retail sales figure, when compared to the February 2020 period, showed a decline of 20.65 per cent.

In February 2020, the overall vehicle retail sales stood at 17,32,161 units.

On a YoY basis, passenger vehicle (PV) retail sales last month fell by 7.84 per cent to 2,38,096 units last month from 2,58,337 units sold during the corresponding month of last year.

Similarly, two-wheeler retail sales declined last month YoY, by 10.67 per cent to 9,83,358 units.

Besides, tractor retail sales fell by 18.87 per cent to 50,304 units.

However, the commercial vehicle (CV) retail sales rose by 7.41 per cent to 63,797 units last month from 59,395 units sold during the corresponding month of last year.

“The two-wheeler segment is showing no signs of recovery as Bharat continues to play spoil-sport. With cost of acquisition continuously going north, inquiry level remained weak. As corporates and educational institutions continued operating from home, urban demand also took a hit,” said FADA President Vinkesh Gulati.

“Even though the PV segment saw some launches and slight respite in supply due to better production, it was not enough to meet the customer demand. Vehicle waiting period thus remains similar to what it was in the last few months.”

According to FADA, with Omicron passing away without much impact and supplies showing signs of recovery, “it looked as if the Indian Auto Industry was at the cusp of recovery until Russia invaded Ukraine”.

“Due the ongoing war, we once again fear the shortage in semiconductors which will create additional supply side issues for PVs,” the federation said.

“With crude breaching the $110-mark, the government will not be able to hold prices of petroleum products for long. Post state election results, oil marketing companies will increase fuel prices by at least Rs 10-15.”

Business

Nifty to touch 29,094 in 12 months supported by durable earnings, strong macro backdrop

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New Delhi, Dec 19: India’s benchmark index Nifty is expected to touch 29,094 in one year based on long‑term valuation averages and earnings durability, a report said on Friday.

Wealth management firm PL Wealth said in the report that India enters the end of 2025 from a position of relative macro strength with record‑low inflation, a dovish monetary stance, resilient domestic demand and improved corporate earnings visibility.

“In the near term, large-cap stocks remain preferred due to their earnings stability and strong balance sheets, while selective exposure to high-quality mid-cap names is being added as visibility improves,” the wealth management firm cited its strategy.

Over the next 6 to 24 months, the earnings cycle is expected to broaden across consumption, financials, capex-linked sectors and select industrials, supported by benign inflation, lower interest rates and sustained domestic liquidity.

“India’s current macro configuration is among the most constructive we have seen in over a decade,” said Inderbir Singh Jolly, CEO, PL Wealth Management.

While global uncertainties will continue to create short-term volatility, India’s structural strengths—policy reform, financialisaton of savings and improving corporate balance sheets—position it well for sustained long-term growth, Inderbir added.

RBI’s 25 basis‑point cut to a 5.25 per cent policy repo rate lowered its CPI inflation projections and upgraded GDP growth estimates, signalling confidence in the sustainability of domestic demand, the report said.

The firm also noted FY26 GDP growth projection of 7.3 per cent underpinned by robust infrastructure spending, resilient consumption and key policy measures such as GST rationalisation and income-tax cuts.

The FY26 September quarter earnings season delivered broad-based strength, with several sectors—including hospitals, capital goods, cement, electronics manufacturing services, ports, NBFCs and telecom—reporting double-digit growth in EBITDA and profits.

The firm noted that Nifty earnings per share estimates for FY26–FY28 imply an earnings CAGR of nearly 14 per cent. Domestic institutional investors have anchored markets with record net inflows of over Rs 6.8 trillion year‑to‑date.

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Indian stock markets open higher amid positive global cues

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Mumbai, Dec 19: Indian stock markets opened on a positive note on Friday, taking cues from supportive global markets, even as benchmark indices remained on track to close the week in the red for the third consecutive session.

In early trade, the Sensex was trading at 84,866.06, up 384.25 points or 0.45 per cent at around 9:20 AM.

The Nifty index was also higher, quoting at 25,926.90, up 104 points or 0.4 per cent. The index continues to trade within the 25,700–25,900 range, reflecting trader indecision.

“Immediate resistance is placed at 25,900–26,000, while key supports are seen at 25,700 and 25,600,” analysts said.

Buying interest was seen in several heavyweight stocks. Shares of TMPV, Eternal, Infosys, Power Grid, BEL, Sun Pharma, and Bajaj Finserv gained up to 1.5 per cent and emerged as the top performers on the Sensex.

On the other hand, ICICI Bank and Bharti Airtel were the only stocks trading in the red during early deals.

Sectorally, all indices were trading higher. The Nifty Healthcare index led the gains, rising 1.14 per cent, followed closely by the Nifty Pharma index, which was up 1.1 per cent.

The Nifty Auto index also gained around 0.5 to 0.57 per cent.

The broader markets mirrored the positive sentiment, with the Nifty Midcap index gaining 0.45 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap index was up 0.47 per cent.

Meanwhile, investors remain cautious ahead of several key global and domestic triggers.

Globally, market participants are keeping an eye on retail sales data from the UK, wage tracker data from the euro area, and the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet numbers. On the domestic front, investors are awaiting the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes and the latest foreign exchange reserve data.

In terms of institutional activity, foreign institutional investors turned net buyers, purchasing shares worth Rs 614.26 crore on Thursday.

Domestic institutional investors also supported the market, with net purchases of Rs 2,525.98 crore during the same session.

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India reaches 709 million active UPI QRs, logs 59.33 billion transactions in July-Sep

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Mumbai, Dec 18: The unified payments interface (UPI) transaction volumes rose 33.5 per cent (year-on-year) to 59.33 billion transactions in the July-September period, as transaction value grew 21 per cent to Rs 74.84 lakh crore, a report showed on Thursday.

India reached 709 million active UPI QRs, marking a 21 per cent increase since July 2024. Dense QR acceptance across kiranas, pharmacies, transport hubs, and rural markets has made scan-and-pay the default payment mode nationwide, according to the report by Worldline India.

Person-to-merchant (P2M) transactions continued to outpace person-to-person (P2P), reflecting UPI’s dominance in everyday retail payments.

P2M transactions were up 35 per cent to 37.46 billion transactions while P2P transactions rose 29 per cent to 21.65 billion transactions, the report said.

The third quarter (Q3 2025) further reinforced India’s position as the world’s most dynamic real-time payments economy — where every scan, tap, and click is reshaping consumer and merchant behaviour.

The average ticket size declined to Rs 1,262 (from Rs 1,363), highlighting increased usage for micro-transactions such as mobility, food, healthcare essentials, and hyperlocal commerce.

Point of sale (PoS) terminals grew 35 per cent to 12.12 million (July 2024–July 2025). Bharat QR stood at 6.10 million, witnessing marginal decline amid the shift toward UPI QR dominance.

Private banks led acceptance deployment, accounting for 84 per cent market share. While credit card issuance grew by 8 per cent (on-year) to 113.39 million cards, debit cards reached 1.02 billion and prepaid cards stood at 470.1 million.

Credit card transactions grew 26 per cent to 1.45 billion, with transaction value at Rs 6.07 lakh crore. Debit card transactions declined 22 per cent, reflecting migration of low-ticket spends to UPI, the report showed.

Mobile and tap-based payments continued to accelerate, with contactless adoption gaining momentum across metros, mobility services, and quick-service retail.

“The outlook for Q4 2025 and early 2026 points to accelerated innovation and deeper ecosystem integration. Interoperable QR is expected to move from pilot phases to everyday usage across mobility, healthcare, fuel stations, and public utilities—delivering a unified scan-and-pay experience,” the report mentioned.

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