Business
Retail fuel prices would need to be increased by 15% to reflect Int’l crude prices
Retail fuel prices have not been marked to market for a few months and should be increased by approximately 15 per cent to reflect the current international crude prices, Morgan Stanley said in a report.
As such, assuming an average of US$110/bbl in F2023 (based on oil futures as of March 7), the headline CPI for India is likely to average at 6 per cent in F2023.
“We opine CPI to remain above the 6 per cent mark until September 2022, and only decelerate to 5.6 per cent by 4Q22. With regard to policy response, we expect RBI to commence monetary policy normalisation with a reverse repo rate hike in the April policy review and follow that up with a repo rate hike of 25bp in the June policy review,” it said.
Risks emanate from a sharper and sustained rise in oil prices, which will potentially lead to front-loading rate hikes, increasing risk of disruptive tightening.
Food inflation accelerated to the highest since December 2020. On a YoY basis, food CPI rose to 5.9 per cent in February from 5.4 per cent in January. The acceleration in food CPI has been led by an upturn in prices of food articles such as meat, fish and eggs followed by vegetables, cereals and its products. The high-frequency food prices data for March (month to date) indicate that prices have risen for oils and fats as well as milk, while vegetable prices are declining at a slower pace.
Headline CPI rose to an eight-month high to breach the upper threshold of the target band, Morgan Stanley said. Headline CPI rose a tad to 6.1 per cent YoY in February from 6 per cent in January, in line with our expectations.
Retail inflation in February 2022 crossed 6 per cent, the first time after June 2021. With the spike in global crude oil prices and continuing uncertainties, including supply-chain disruptions due to the ongoing war in Europe and economic sanctions, the outlook for inflation remains uncertain. The government can, for now, limit the pass-through of high oil prices. Yet, this might turn out to be challenging if the situation persists or the rise continues. We expect the RBI to follow global cues and start raising policy rates, but moderately, Anand Rathi Group said in a note.
Business
Indian stock markets end higher after two days of losses

Mumbai, Nov 3: Indian equity markets ended a volatile session on a positive note on Monday, snapping a two-day losing streak.
Gains in real estate and state-owned bank stocks helped lift the indices despite early weakness.
After opening lower, the Sensex recovered to touch an intra-day high of 84,127 before closing 39.78 points, or 0.05 per cent, higher at 83,978.49.
The Nifty also gained 41.25 points, or 0.16 per cent, to end at 25,763.35.
“The Nifty oscillated between 25,700 and 25,800 through the day, showing resilience after briefly dipping below the October 24 low of 25,718,” analysts said.
“The zone between 25,660–25,700 once again acted as a strong demand pocket, helping the index recover intraday losses and maintain a constructive tone ahead of key global data releases,” they added.
Among the Sensex stocks, Maruti Suzuki fell over 3 per cent and was among the top losers along with Titan Company, BEL, TCS, ITC, NTPC, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel and tech Mahindra.
On the other hand, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, and HCL Tech were the major gainers.
In the broader markets, the Nifty MidCap index rose 0.77 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index advanced 0.72 per cent, showing strength beyond the frontline stocks.
Among sectoral indices, PSU bank shares led the rally, with the Nifty PSU Bank index climbing 1.92 per cent.
Bank of Baroda surged 5 per cent, while Canara Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, Bank of India, and Indian Bank also gained.
The Nifty Metal and Realty indices also added up to 2 per cent each.
Meanwhile, the FMCG, Private Bank, and IT indices slipped up to 0.4 per cent, capping the market’s overall gains.
Analysts said that despite mixed global cues and cautious investor sentiment, buying in select sectors helped the markets end the day in the green.
“The domestic market ended on a marginal positive note as profit booking was visible at the higher levels due to the absence of fresh domestic triggers,” market watchers said.
“While the broader market outperformed since the quarterly earnings are steering investors’ preference to take a short- to medium-term view,” they mentioned.
Business
India’s manufacturing growth picks up in Oct due to robust domestic demand: PMI data

New Delhi, Nov 3: India’s manufacturing sector growth surged in the month of October, fuelled by strong domestic demand, GST 2.0 reforms, productivity gains and increased technology investments, a report said on Monday.
The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 59.2 in October from 57.7 in September, according to data compiled by US-based financial intelligence provider S&P Global.
The increase stemmed from quicker growth in new orders and factory output at the beginning of the third financial quarter, driven by boost in advertising and recent GST reforms, the report said.
The expansion rate matched levels seen in August, which was one of the strongest in the last five years, it indicated.
A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion, while one below 50 shows contraction in the manufacturing, services, or construction sectors. A reading of exactly 50 signifies flat activity.
The manufacturing PMI acceleration comes from robust end-demand fuelled expansions in output, new orders, and job creation, said Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC.
Meanwhile, input prices moderated in October while average selling prices increased as some manufacturers passed on additional cost burdens to end-consumers, Bhandari added.
Despite input cost inflation easing to an eight-month low, output charge inflation remained at its highest level in 12 years for the second consecutive month.
Companies reported passing on higher freight and labour costs to customers, while strong demand allowed them to maintain elevated prices.
Domestic sales growth outpaced export orders, which grew more slowly even with some improvement in overseas demand. Employment creation continued for the twentieth straight month in October, with hiring remaining moderate and largely consistent with September’s levels, it noted.
Manufacturers remain optimistic about future business conditions, crediting their optimism to GST reforms, capacity expansion, and stronger marketing efforts, the report noted.
Business
Commercial LPG cylinder prices reduced across metros from November 1

New Delhi, Nov 1: State-run oil marketing companies have reduced commercial LPG cylinder prices across metros, offering a slight relief to businesses, starting from Saturday.
The move will provide marginal relief to thousands of small and medium-sized businesses.
According to the latest revision announced by state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs), the 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder will now cost Rs 1,590.50 in Delhi, reflecting a Rs 5 cut from the previous rate of Rs 1,595.50.
With the highest drop of Rs 6.50 per cylinder among the metros, the charge in Kolkata will now be Rs 1,694 per cylinder. Chennai will now charge Rs 1,750 (down Rs 4.50), while Mumbai now charges Rs 1,542 (down Rs 5).
For businesses that depend significantly on LPG for their everyday operations, like restaurants, hotels, and catering services, the most recent revision provides a small reprieve following a hike of Rs 15.50 that was put into effect late in September.
However, domestic LPG prices have not changed and are the same in every city.
Earlier in September, OMCs had reduced the price of commercial LPG gas cylinders by Rs 51.50. Following the revision, a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder in Delhi was available at Rs 1,580.
Earlier, OMCs had reduced the price of a 19 kg commercial LPG gas cylinder by Rs 33.50. Before that, prices had been reduced by Rs 58.50 on July 1.
Earlier in June, oil firms had announced a Rs 24 cut for commercial cylinders, setting the rate at Rs 1,723.50. In April, the price stood at Rs 1,762. February saw a small Rs 7 reduction, but March reversed this slightly with a Rs 6 increase.
Meanwhile, the Centre had announced to provide 2.5 million free LPG connections under the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) during the festival season.
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