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RBI vision for PPI growth by 150% will be big for Paytm

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 The increase in prepaid payment instruments transactions could lead to higher than expected growth in wallet transactions and revenue for Paytm, says a Goldman Sachs report

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on June 24 released its ‘Payments Vision 2025’ report, which talks about the way forward for the Indian digital payments industry. With this comes a big boost for digital payments, which will be a positive for listed players like Paytm.

The RBI expects more than 3x increase in digital payment transactions, increase in PPI (prepaid payment instruments) transactions by 150 per cent, increase of payment transaction turnover vis-a-vis GDP to 8, increase in debit card transactions at PoS by 20 per cent, card acceptance infrastructure to increase to 250 lakh, increase of registered customer base for mobile based transactions by 50 per cent CAGR and more.

This overall growth will be beneficial for Paytm as it has established itself beyond UPI, and created a full stack payment ecosystem. Paytm, which introduced India to digital wallets and the QR code, has a host of flexible payment instruments — Paytm Wallet, Paytm UPI, Paytm Postpaid (Buy Now, Pay Later), Debit Cards, Credit Cards, NetBanking, and EMI and is also a leader in the offline payments market with its devices like Smart PoS and Soundbox.

A Goldman Sachs report dated June 19 notes that this will translate to $98 billion in value of transactions in FY25 (wallet+ cards) vs $39 billion in FY22. Additionally, it is expected that full KYC wallets only will be on UPI rails, where Paytm is a market leader.

“We note that digital wallets formed 77 per cent of total PPI transaction value in FY22, a segment where Paytm has 67 per cent market share (April 2022). We estimate wallets made up roughly one-third of Paytm’s payments revenues in FY22, and a higher than expected growth in wallet transactions could positively impact the market leader Paytm,” said the report.

The RBI’s vision also states that there will be increased regulations for the fintech sector.

However, companies like Paytm being listed are already aware of regulatory measures and adhering to digital banking guidelines.

So, while it might be disruptive for industry but it might be immaterial for Paytm.

Business

Banks raise $72.8 billion in forex inflows till Aug 21, FCNR(B) deposits reach $65.4 billion: RBI

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New Delhi, Aug 22: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Saturday said that authorised dealer banks have raised a massive $72.848 billion in forex inflows till August 21, and a major chuck came from FCNR (B) deposits at $65.397 billion.

External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) and Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowings (OFCBs) under Reserve Bank’s Swap facility helped raised another $7.451 billion till August 21.

RBI had introduced a special USD-INR forex swap facility covering FCNR(B) deposits, ECB and OFCB inflows on June 8, 2026.

“As already announced vide Press Release dated August 14, 2026, the Scheme is open till August 31, 2026 for FCNR(B) deposits, and up to December 31, 2026 for ECBs and OFCBs,” The Research Bank said in a statement.

The massive foreign inflows arrive as Indian banks have stepped up their efforts to attract FCNR(B) deposits by offering higher interest rates after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) suddenly cut short the deadline for its dollar-rupee swap window to August 31, from September 30.

The swap facility, announced in June to boost the inflow of dollars amid a weakening rupee, was originally available until the end of September, but the RBI abruptly shortened this by a month due to the “encouraging response” to the facility, which resulted in the required amount of foreign exchange flowing into the country.

While there may be valid reasons to justify an early closure of the RBI’s FCNR(B) deposit scheme, the most likely reason could be that the target for dollar mobilisation has already been achieved with inflows at $57 billion, and another $25-30 billion could easily flow in the remaining days of August, taking the total collections to around $85 billion, an SBI Research report said earlier this week.

According to the SBI report, “we don’t believe that the cost of swap could have been a constraining factor”.

“Our estimates show that the cumulative cost would amount to around 15 per cent of the corpus, or $10.5 billion. While this appears sizeable in absolute terms, it needs to be viewed against the scale of India’s foreign-exchange reserves rather than the FCNR(B) corpus alone,” the report argued.

Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves jumped $9.905 billion to $716.90 billion during the week ended August 14, according to data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday. The latest increase comes a week after the country’s forex reserves had surged by $14.1 billion to $707 billion, marking their highest level in the current financial year.

The rise in reserves was supported by inflows under the RBI’s FCNR(B) deposit scheme, which began to reflect in the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

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Fresh tariff war adds pressure to strained US-Canada relationship

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Washington, Aug 22: A trade confrontation between the United States and Canada escalated sharply on Saturday after last-minute negotiations collapsed, triggering 50 per cent US tariffs on billions of dollars in Canadian goods and a promise of dollar-for-dollar retaliation from Ottawa.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended the negotiations and ordered his country’s team to return from Washington. He accused the United States of changing its proposed terms at the last minute.

“Last-minute changes in the U.S. proposed terms were unfair, uneconomic, and called into question the reliability of any deal,” Carney said.

“At midnight tonight, the US intends to impose a 50% tariff on roughly $28 billion of Canadian goods. Canada will match those tariffs dollar for dollar to protect our workers and businesses,” he said.

The Office of the US Trade Representative blamed Canada for the breakdown. It said Ottawa declined to finalise an agreement under terms reached earlier in the week.

“Despite the US offer to Canada to receive the best treatment of any major exporter to our market, new demands and walk backs of other commitments by Canada have upended the careful balance reached in the past days,” it said.

The US side said its offer included significant tariff reductions covering steel, aluminium, automobiles and lumber. It also proposed cooperation on export controls, transshipment, digital trade, critical minerals and imports made with forced labour.

The package would have included supply-chain coordination in aerospace and the announcement of formal negotiations over the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA.

“This is a missed opportunity for Canada to partner with the United States, which is the fastest growing economy in the G7,” the US Trade Representative said.

Carney said Canada had sought tariff-free access for most Canadian businesses, greater stability in bilateral trade and lower US tariffs on strategic industries. Ottawa also wanted to protect small and medium-sized businesses while retaining its independence and economic flexibility.

“We have recognised from the beginning that America has changed, and that we will not return to our old relationship,” he said. “Throughout, our goal has been to secure the best deal for Canadians, never a deal at any price or on any deadline.”

Carney said his government would announce additional assistance for Canadian workers and businesses in the coming days. That would build on nearly $25 billion in support provided during the previous 18 months.

US Senator Peter Welch, a Vermont Democrat and member of the Senate Finance Committee, urged President Donald Trump to withdraw the tariffs.

“These new 50% tariffs on Canadian goods are a continuation of the president’s chaotic economic policies, and a slap in the face to businesses and farmers in Vermont and northern border states across America,” Welch said.

“For the sake of American businesses, American farms, and American families, I urge President Trump to drop these tariffs and find an off-ramp to his reckless trade war,” he added.

Welch is the lead sponsor of the Creating Access to Necessary American-Canadian Duty Adjustments Act. The proposed legislation would exempt American-owned small businesses from tariffs imposed on Canada. He also supports the bipartisan Trade Review Act, which seeks to restore Congress’ role in trade policy.

The latest tariffs add pressure to an already strained relationship. Earlier US duties on automobiles, metals and forest products had prompted retaliatory Canadian measures, while Trump’s repeated remarks about Canada becoming the 51st US state fuelled anger and calls in Canada to reduce its economic reliance on the United States.

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Bitcoin nears $80,000 in its biggest weekly rally in 3 years

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New Delhi, Aug 22: Bitcoin surged toward the $80,000 mark on Saturday, on track for its strongest weekly gain in more than three years amid optimism of traders related to a spike in bond yields.

The cryptocurrency jumped as much as 4.8 per cent over 24 hours and was trading around $78,588 as of 9:10 am. Bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.6 per cent in the past hour and 24.5 per cent across the past week, marking a strong weekly rally as traders assessed a new initiative from the US aimed at fiscal consolidation.

Such a weekly advance was not experienced by the cryptocurrency since March 2023. Bitcoin last traded near $80,000 in May 2026.

Analysts said the rally was driven partly by a US Treasury announcement that it would double its long‑dated bond buybacks, a move that pushed long yields lower and lifted risk appetite across markets.

The announcement forced the liquidation of billions of short positions, amplifying the price move in crypto, market participants said.

Meanwhile, gold also reached its highest level since May after concerns rose among investors that the intervention in the bond market will weigh on the dollar.

US President Donald Trump’s meeting with executives from crypto firms such as Coinbase Global and Payward was also taken as a positive indication about the administration’s favourable stance to crypto.

Institutional buyers returned to the market this week, with the US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds set to clock their largest weekly inflows since January.

Collectively, 13 ETFs have seen inflows of over $1 billion so far this week, further driving the bullish mood in crypto.

Bitcoin remains far below its peak near $126,000 seen in October 2025, followed by a major sell-off that bottomed out at $58,642 in late June 2026.

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