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Indian Banks to post larger increase in margins: Moody’s

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Credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service on Monday said banks in India, Saudi Arabia and South Africa would post larger increases in margins in FY23.

Moody’s said the hike in policy rates in many G-20 emerging markets to curb inflation will improve the margins of the banks.

The rating agency also said a more rapid acceleration of inflation would necessitate higher loan-loss provisions, erasing margin gains.

“Orderly, gradual increases in interest rates will improve banking profits in most emerging market banking systems. As a result, Moody’s expects banks in India, Saudi Arabia and South Africa to post comparatively larger increases in margins in 2022-2023,” Moody’s said.

The rating agency’s focus is on banks in the ten G-20 emerging markets: Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey.

“Now that most central banks have tightened monetary policy to curb inflation, we expect inflation to abate in all ten emerging markets countries in 2023, helping contain asset risks for banks,” said Eugene Tarzimanov, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer at Moody’s.

“If inflation rates spike steeply and result in sharp increases in debt-servicing costs for borrowers, banks would have to increase their loan-loss provisions to levels that outweigh gains in margins, which would be credit negative,” Tarzimanov added.

Among the ten G-20 emerging markets, Turkey has been facing the steepest inflation, which hit 73 per cent in May 2022, followed by 61 per cent for Argentina

Rising inflation rates are mainly because of supply constraints, increases in the prices of commodities and currency pressures.

Banks’ credit costs also increase when inflation accelerates. An acceleration of inflation has also historically led to increases in credit costs in seven of the 10 systems.

Moody’s expects banks in Russia and Turkey to post larger increases in credit costs in 2022-2023. In a scenario where inflation accelerates materially and leads to significant rate hikes, credit costs will also rise in Argentina, South Africa and Brazil.

Asset risks for banks would outweigh margin benefits if inflation rises more sharply. An acceleration in inflation beyond Moody’s expectation would lead to higher credit costs that will outweigh the benefits of gains in margins. In this scenario, the profitability of Brazilian and Turkish banks will likely deteriorate more significantly than in other markets.

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Indian equity markets open higher on slumping crude oil, FII inflows

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Indian equity markets opened higher on Tuesday for the second consecutive day this week amid declining crude prices, strong Q2 earnings and foreign investors turning buyers.

Sensex jumped as much as 0.87 per cent or over 600 points to hit an intraday high of 76,358.79 in early deals.

Nifty traded at 23,610.70, an increase of 0.72 per cent or about 170 points.

On the sectoral front, financial services led the gains as Nifty Financial Services ex-Bank jumped 1 per cent.

Meanwhile, Nifty Chemicals, Nifty FMCG and Nifty Media surged up to 0.77 per cent. Private bank, cement, information technology (IT) and consumer durables indices were also trading in the green.

On the other hand, healthcare and energy stocks witnessed profit booking.

Analysts said that circumstances are ideal for the continuation of the ongoing market rally.

“Decline in Brent crude to $104, further weakening of the AI trade, continuing flow of good Q2 results and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turning buyers have potential to accelerate the ongoing rally,” they said.

The market experts also said Nifty has reclaimed its 50-day EMA near 23,170, while RSI improved to 61.03, above its average of 47.90, indicating strengthening momentum. PCR at 1.28 also reflects a positive derivatives setup. Immediate support is placed at 23,200-23,300, while resistance is seen at 23,600-23,700.

“Massive value buying along with big short covering leads to such sharp surges in stocks, even in megacaps. The takeaway from this experience is that patient value buying will be rewarded,” according to them.

Analysts added that short positions in many quality large-caps, created by bears on expectations of continued FII selling are now unwinding as circumstances change. While the AI trade has slightly weakened, it is only a correction, not yet a crash, and results of many AI companies continue to be good.

On Monday, FIIs continued their buying momentum for the second consecutive session, recording net equity purchases of Rs 3,114 crore. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained net sellers for the second straight session with outflows of Rs 392 crore.

Moreover, the results of the US mid-term elections due tomorrow and its impact on geopolitical dynamics will be keenly watched by the market in the coming days.

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Mumbai ED attaches properties worth Rs 53 crore in bank fraud

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The ED attached immovable and movable properties worth Rs 53.95 crore in a bank fraud by a private company that resulted in a loss of over Rs 2,200 crore to a consortium of banks led by Indian Overseas Bank and 16 other banks, an official said on Monday.

The Directorate of Enforcement (ED), Mumbai Zone-I, provisionally attached the assets of Parekh Aluminex Limited (PAL) under the provisions of the Prevention of Money Laundering Act. (MLA), 2002.

Till date, the ED has attached total assets of Rs 546 crore in this case, the statement said.

The ED investigation was initiated on the basis of an FIR registered by CBI, EOW Mumbai and EOB Mumbai against Parekh Aluminex Limited, and others for offences under Sections 420 and 120-BIPC, 1860 and Sections 13(1)d) and 13(2) of the Prevention of Corruption Act, 1988.

Investigation has revealed that PAL fraudulently obtained loan from a consortium of banks by submitting inflated stock and debtor statements and later loan accounts of PAL were declared NPA for an amount of Rs 2,296 crore, the ED said.

The ED’s Investigation revealed that JK Shah Group assisted in the diversion of the Proceeds of Crime amounting to Rs 110.54 crore through various entities and persons.

One of the beneficiaries of the Proceeds of Crime received and enjoyed Rs 70.25 crore, forming part of the total Proceeds of Crime of Rs 2,296.58 crore, the ED said.

The ED had already attached assets worth Rs 493 crore in this case. A prosecution complaint (charge sheet) has also been filed before the Special Court (PMLA), Mumbai, which has taken cognisance of the offence, said the statement.

The conspirators inflicted a wrongful loss on a consortium of banks led by Indian Overseas Bank and 16 other banks, and the ED is examining the incriminating documents recovered during search operations to identify other players in the bank fraud, said the statement.

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Delhi traders say INDIA Bloc rally affected business

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The Delhi Vyapar Mahasangh has expressed concern over the impact of the INDIA Bloc’s rally held at Ramlila Maidan on November 1, saying the political event affected business activities, customers’ movement and the livelihoods of traders and workers in the national Capital, particularly ahead of the festive season.

In a statement titled, ‘What Did We Lose, What Did We Gain?’, the traders’ body said that while the rally may have provided political parties with an opportunity to express their views and demonstrate their strength, it left Delhi’s business community with several economic questions and concerns.

“November 1 may have been an opportunity for political parties to put forward their views and demonstrate their strength, but for Delhi’s business community, the day left behind several economic questions and concerns,” the Mahasangh said.

It pointed out that Delhi’s wholesale markets are not merely centres of local trade but also serve as an important foundation for the purchases, supply chains and livelihoods of millions of small traders across the country.

The organisation said that disruption to market activities, customer movement and the supply of goods just ahead of a major festive occasion like Diwali was a matter of concern.

Listing the losses suffered by the trading community, it said business activities and customer footfall were affected on Sunday.

Small traders arriving from other states also lost valuable time and purchasing opportunities.

It added that the daily earnings of shopkeepers, employees, labourers, transporters and families dependent on them were adversely affected.

The traders’ body further claimed that the normal commercial activities and business image of Delhi’s major markets had suffered a setback, while concerns had increased over the possibility of customers shifting towards online shopping and other commercial centres.

However, the Mahasangh also acknowledged certain positive aspects of the rally, saying it brought the problems and concerns of Delhi’s trading community onto a wider public platform.

It said the event once again highlighted the important role played by Delhi’s wholesale markets in the country’s economy and supply chain. It also underlined the need for better coordination between business interests, public convenience and traffic management while planning major events in the future.

“Delhi Vyapar Mahasangh (Regd.) respects democratic rights and peaceful protests. Every political party has the right to express its views, but equal responsibility towards trade, employment, ordinary citizens and the country’s economic activities is equally necessary,” the statement said.

“Political events last for a limited period, but the economic losses suffered by businesses and the impact on customers’ trust can be felt for a long time,” it added.

The organisation urged authorities and political parties to give priority to Delhi’s business calendar, festive season, market accessibility, supply of goods and public convenience while deciding the dates and venues of large-scale events.

“Politics has its place, and trade and employment have theirs. A balance between the two is the hallmark of a strong, responsible and healthy democratic system,” it said.

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