Business
Indian Banks to post larger increase in margins: Moody’s
Credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service on Monday said banks in India, Saudi Arabia and South Africa would post larger increases in margins in FY23.
Moody’s said the hike in policy rates in many G-20 emerging markets to curb inflation will improve the margins of the banks.
The rating agency also said a more rapid acceleration of inflation would necessitate higher loan-loss provisions, erasing margin gains.
“Orderly, gradual increases in interest rates will improve banking profits in most emerging market banking systems. As a result, Moody’s expects banks in India, Saudi Arabia and South Africa to post comparatively larger increases in margins in 2022-2023,” Moody’s said.
The rating agency’s focus is on banks in the ten G-20 emerging markets: Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey.
“Now that most central banks have tightened monetary policy to curb inflation, we expect inflation to abate in all ten emerging markets countries in 2023, helping contain asset risks for banks,” said Eugene Tarzimanov, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer at Moody’s.
“If inflation rates spike steeply and result in sharp increases in debt-servicing costs for borrowers, banks would have to increase their loan-loss provisions to levels that outweigh gains in margins, which would be credit negative,” Tarzimanov added.
Among the ten G-20 emerging markets, Turkey has been facing the steepest inflation, which hit 73 per cent in May 2022, followed by 61 per cent for Argentina
Rising inflation rates are mainly because of supply constraints, increases in the prices of commodities and currency pressures.
Banks’ credit costs also increase when inflation accelerates. An acceleration of inflation has also historically led to increases in credit costs in seven of the 10 systems.
Moody’s expects banks in Russia and Turkey to post larger increases in credit costs in 2022-2023. In a scenario where inflation accelerates materially and leads to significant rate hikes, credit costs will also rise in Argentina, South Africa and Brazil.
Asset risks for banks would outweigh margin benefits if inflation rises more sharply. An acceleration in inflation beyond Moody’s expectation would lead to higher credit costs that will outweigh the benefits of gains in margins. In this scenario, the profitability of Brazilian and Turkish banks will likely deteriorate more significantly than in other markets.
Mumbai, June 12: Gold and silver prices traded higher on Friday, with precious metals surging by up to 2 per cent amid hopes of a peace deal in the ongoing West Asia conflict.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (August) increased as much as 1.11 per cent or Rs 1,668 to hit an intraday high of Rs 1,50,600 as of around 11:30 am.
The yellow metal was trading at Rs 1,49,916, up 0.66 per cent or Rs 948. It touched an intraday low of Rs 1,49,569, a gain of 0.42 per cent or Rs 637 from the previous close.
Meanwhile, silver futures (July) traded at Rs 2,42,143, higher by Rs 2,490 or 1 per cent.
The white metal touched an intraday high of Rs 2,44,817, jumping 2.15 per cent during the session so far. It recorded an intraday low of Rs 2,41,601, up 0.81 per cent or Rs 1,948 from the previous close.
Earlier in the day, gold and silver began the session at Rs 1,50,595 and Rs 2,42,776, respectively, on the commodity exchange.
According to commodity market experts, bullion remained under pressure overall and was headed for a second consecutive weekly decline as persistent inflation concerns and growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate hike continued to weigh on sentiment.
Analysts said precious metals rebounded sharply from six-month lows after US President Donald Trump indicated that the US and Iran could reach a peace agreement as early as this weekend.
However, gains remained limited amid continued uncertainty over the negotiations, with Iranian officials denying that a final agreement had been reached, according to them.
Optimism around a potential diplomatic breakthrough eased concerns over global energy supplies, triggering a decline in crude oil prices and improving broader market risk appetite, experts added.
Market participants will now track developments in US-Iran negotiations and upcoming commentary from the Federal Reserve for further direction in precious metal prices.
In international markets, COMEX silver traded at $66.94, up more than 4 per cent, while COMEX gold rose over 2 per cent to $4,203.70 per ounce.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices declined sharply, with US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude falling roughly 3 per cent to $85 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude declined 1.59 per cent to $88.94 per barrel.
Mumbai, June 11: Gold and silver prices traded lower on Thursday, with precious metals falling by up to 2 per cent amid escalating tensions in the West Asia conflict.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (August) declined as much as 1 per cent or Rs 1,573 to hit an intraday low of Rs 1,46,444 as of around 12 pm.
The yellow metal was trading at Rs 1,47,860, down 0.11 per cent or Rs 157. It touched an intraday high of Rs 1,48,089, up 0.04 per cent or Rs 72 from the previous close.
On the other hand, silver futures (July) were trading at Rs 2,34,500, down Rs 1,005 or 0.43 per cent.
The white metal touched an intraday low of Rs 2,30,493, declining 2.12 per cent during the session so far. It recorded an intraday high of Rs 2,35,402, down 0.04 per cent or Rs 103 from the previous close.
Earlier in the day, gold and silver opened at Rs 1,46,518 and Rs 2,31,671, respectively, on the MCX.
In international markets, precious metals also remained under pressure. COMEX silver was trading at $63.90, down over 1.29 per cent, while COMEX gold was trading 0.68 per cent lower at $4,105.30 per ounce.
According to commodity analysts, precious metals remained under pressure as investors assessed the latest developments in the West Asia conflict. Gold stabilised near multi-month lows after the US military confirmed the completion of its latest strikes on Iran, raising expectations that diplomatic negotiations could resume.
They said easing safe-haven demand, coupled with expectations that US interest rates could remain higher for longer, weighed on bullion prices. Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.
Market participants also continued to monitor inflationary pressures stemming from rising energy prices and their potential impact on the US Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices surged sharply, with Brent crude rising over 2 per cent to trade near $95 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 4 per cent to $93.64 per barrel.
Mumbai, June 10: Domestic equity markets traded higher on Wednesday in the morning session despite elevated geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices.
Sensex gained as much as 0.59 per cent or over 400 points to touch an intraday high of 74,356 in early trade, while the Nifty rose 0.46 per cent or about 100 points to 23,351.
Sectoral performance was largely positive, with FMCG stocks leading the gains. Nifty FMCG rose 1.5 per cent, followed by Nifty Chemicals (0.67 per cent), Nifty Oil & Gas (0.60 per cent) and Nifty Private Bank (0.50 per cent).
On the downside, metal stocks remained under pressure, with Nifty Metal declining more than 1 per cent. Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom fell 0.62 per cent, while Auto, Media and PSU Bank indices traded marginally lower.
Among the Nifty 50 constituents, Hindalco Industries emerged as the top loser, shedding nearly 3 per cent. Eternal, Adani Enterprises, NTPC and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) were among the other major laggards.
“While weak global cues and geopolitical tensions could keep markets volatile in the near term, technical indicators suggest signs of stabilisation after recent selling pressure. Nifty has strong support around 23,000-23,100, while 23,500-23,600 remains the immediate resistance zone. A decisive breakout on either side is likely to determine the market’s next directional move,” analysts said.
Investors and traders’ sentiment remained cautious amid escalating tensions in West Asia after the United States launched strikes on Iran, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict and its potential impact on global energy supplies.
On the commodities front, international benchmark Brent crude rose 0.75 per cent to around $93 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.88 per cent to nearly $90 per barrel.
In Asia, markets traded largely in the red. Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined more than 1 per cent each, while South Korea’s KOSPI plunged nearly 4 per cent.
Overnight, Wall Street ended lower, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.26 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite declining 0.97 per cent.
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