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Primary market scenario post April 2022

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The world has been affected by Covid-19 for over 24 months now. However, capital markets used this opportunity and had a fantastic run during the same whether it be secondary markets or for that matter primary markets. A striking feature of primary market offerings during calendar year 2021 was the fact that the bulk of the offerings, as much as roughly 80 per cent was offer for sale. This OFS was dominated by PE investors who took advantage of the markets and sold their stake at unbelievable valuations. This was also the period when tech platform companies and new age companies hit the market. As usual, the market had its fair share of successes and failures.

The driving force behind the listing gains was the oversubscription witnessed across companies barring a handful. This oversubscription came at a cost- the cost of funding the application and this got built into the listing price. This gave a feeling that the issue did well post listing. In reality, most of these companies have lost sharply from their highs and have given up a large part of their gains. Physical events of companies launching their roadshows had stopped and they had become digital with Zoom webinars being the way. This system had its advantages and disadvantages with time to complete being reduced to just one day. Further it gave an unfair advantage to merchant bankers and promoters as conferences were conducted behind an effective censor board in the form of a moderator and tough questions being simply avoided.

An interesting incident was in the Zomato digital event where the company made its entire presentation in US dollars forgetting the basic fact that in an Indian issue, the currency of subscription is Indian Rupees. Fortunately, no other such event has happened thereafter thankfully.

Let us move to April 2022. The scenario has changed completely. There are new regulations imposed by RBI and SEBI. RBI has introduced a ceiling on the amount of money that can be lent by an NBFC against application at an upper cap of Rs 1 crore. This means every HNI can borrow just one crore each. This would mean in simple terms that the HNI portion which has seen oversubscriptions of 200-600 times would just not happen. The method of controlling this lending would be the PAN card. The second thing would be that this oversubscription came at a cost. The cost of funding. When there is no leveraging, there is no cost of funding. This would have a dramatic impact on the unofficial but rampant grey market. Premiums there would crash and the obnoxious returns made on listing would simply vanish. This would put pressure on subscriptions from other categories as well. The day when an IPO for Rs 1,000 crore garnered subscription across categories of Rs 40,000-60,000 would just stop.

SEBI has split the HNI bucket of 15 per cent into two with the first bucket of 5 per cent for application between 2 lakhs to 10 lakhs. The remaining 10 per cent is for applications which are greater than Rs 10 lakhs. The allotment in these categories in case of oversubscription would be on basis of lots like retail. This implies that allotment would be uniform to all applicants of the base lot size which would be Rs 2 lakhs and 10 lakhs as the case maybe on basis of lottery. In case of undersubscription, allotment would be on normal basis where the applicant would get shares on the basis of his subscription.

The other major change is with respect to anchor allocation and lock-in. Half the shares allotted to anchors would be locked for 30 days while the balance half would be locked in for 90 days. This would make anchor investors seek comfort on the pricing of IPO’s and indirectly seek comfort that the issue is reasonably priced so that they do not go under during the mandatory lock-in period.

Let us look at the HNI bucket with an example. For assumption we take a size of the primary offering which could include fresh issue and offer for sale of Rs 1,000 crore. Fifty per cent of the issue would be for QIB’s, 15 per cent for HNI’s and the balance 35 per cent for retail. Of the 50 per cent for QIB’s, 60 per cent would be for anchors. In this example, Rs 300 crore would be for anchors with Rs 150 crore of shares being locked in for the customary 30 days and balance Rs 150 crore for the new period of 90 days. Any anchor would now take a view that his invested price or issue price should not go below the issue price in 90 days. This would give additional comfort to other investors hopefully.

HNI bucket of 5 per cent for Rs 2 lakhs to 10 lakhs would mean Rs 50 crore. This would require 2,500 applications of Rs 2 lakhs to be subscribed on lots. The larger bucket of 10 per cent or Rs 100 crore would require 1,000 applications of Rs 10 lakhs to be subscribed. When the allotment is capped at this system unlike the earlier proportionate, many large applications would be deterred until and unless on the last day just before closing time there is a feeling that the issue may not get subscribed in the HNI category. Then people would look at the issue and make larger applications than 10 lakhs.

In the new scheme of things there would be two major factors which would see a change. The first is subscription levels where three-digit subscription levels in HNI category would be a thing of the past. Second would be as far as premiums are concerned. They would fall significantly as there is no logical cost of interest which could decide the logical premium. The impact of these two factors combined should put pressure on pricing by merchant bankers and promoters.

As an analyst, a person like me would be very happy that management and merchant bankers would now have to justify valuations rather than take the easy way out of suggesting that there is a 50-60 per cent grey market premium. If you feel the price is high, sell in the grey market.

Interesting times ahead for primary markets which will learn to evolve with these changes as well.

Business

Budget 205-26: FDI limit for insurance sector raised to 100 per cent

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New Delhi, Feb 1: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday announced an increase in the FDI limit for the insurance sector from 74 per cent to 100 per cent in the Budget for 2025-26 as part of far-reaching reforms in the financial sector.

This enhanced limit will be available for those companies which invest the entire premium in India. The current guardrails and conditionalities associated with foreign investment will be reviewed and simplified, the Finance Minister said.

Budget 2025-26 aims to initiate transformative reforms across six domains which will augment our growth potential and global competitiveness during the next five years, she while presenting the Budget in Parliament.

One of these domains is the financial sector which encompasses sectors like insurance, pensions, bilateral investment treaties (BIT) and so forth, she said.

A forum for regulatory coordination and development of pension products will be set up, the Finance Minister stated.

Besides, to implement the earlier announcement on simplifying the KYC process, the revamped Central KYC Registry will be rolled out in 2025. A streamlined system for periodic updating will also be implemented, she added.

The Finance Minister also said that requirements and procedures for speedy approval of company mergers will be rationalised. The scope for fast-track mergers will also be widened and the process will be made simpler.

The FDI reforms assume significance as India has emerged as a hot investment destination with multinational giants such as Apple and Tesla looking for alternative supply chains after the US sanctions against China.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently said that the Indian automobile sector had attracted more than $36 billion in FDI over the last four years and this figure would go up several times in the coming years as he exhorted vehicle manufacturers to follow the mantra of ‘Make in India and Make for the World.’

Inaugurated the Bharat Mobility Global Expo 2025 at Bharat Mandapam in the national capital, the Prime Minister said that India presented a huge opportunity and is an ideal destination for investors. The government was paving the way for global investors to bring more FDI into the automobile sector which was technology and innovation-driven, he pointed out.

Sectors such as electronics have attracted major investments with the semiconductor units also coming up in the country for the first time.

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FM allocates Rs 13,415.20 cr for space sector, experts welcome Geospatial mission

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New Delhi, Feb 1: Giving a much-needed boost to the space sector, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday announced an allocation of Rs 13,415.20 crore for the Department of Space in the Union Budget 2025-26.

In the latest budget, Rs 6,103 crore has been earmarked for capital outlay on space research. The move is expected to facilitate various ambitious projects, including satellite launches and deep-space missions.

The enhanced budget comes as India looks forward to upcoming major space launches including the Ganganyaan — India’s human spaceflight mission — as well as the Moon mission, setting up the Indian space station, and Chandrayaan-4.

The increased investment is expected to integrate space-based applications into critical sectors such as agriculture, disaster management, and urban planning.

This is a remarkable increase from previous budgets and reinforces the government’s commitment to growing India’s space ambitions. The Union Budget 2024-25 allocated Rs 13,042.75 crore for the space sector. A Rs 1,000 crore venture capital fund aimed at boosting private sector participation in India’s space industry was also launched last year.

This rise in funding in the space Budget follows India’s impressive achievements in space technology, such as the successful Chandrayaan-3 lunar mission and the Aditya-L1 solar observation project, underscoring the nation’s growing space capabilities.

“The increase in the space budget is a significant step towards strengthening India’s space ecosystem, fostering innovation, and enhancing global competitiveness,” Indian Space Association (ISpA) Director General, Lt. Gen. A.K. Bhatt (retd) said.

The government also removed customs duty on ground installations for satellites, including spares, consumables, and essential goods used in building launch vehicles and facilitating satellite launches.

“This long-awaited reform aligns with the industry’s needs, and we appreciate the government’s responsiveness to the sector’s requirements,” Bhatt said.

Meanwhile, the Finance Minister also announced the launch of a National Geospatial Mission in the Budget 2025-26.

The mission aims to modernise land records and enhance urban planning across India. This initiative will leverage the existing PM Gati Shakti framework to develop foundational geospatial infrastructure and data, facilitating improved design and execution of infrastructure projects, she said.

Geospatial refers to data or information that is associated with a specific location on the Earth’s surface. The National Geospatial Mission is expected to significantly impact various sectors, particularly in urban development and land management.

The experts noted that the announcement of the National Geospatial Mission shows the growing commitment of the government to use the downstream capabilities of the space tech sector.

“The users in the government, private sector, and the industry have lived with the lack of good foundational data for a very long time. The National Geospatial Mission will provide the necessary resources to create geospatial data that will serve as a foundation for social and economic development,” Esri India Managing Director Agendra Kumar said.

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Budget outlay for Jal Jeevan Mission hiked to Rs 67,000 crore

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New Delhi, Feb 1: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday enhanced the total outlay for Jal Jeevan Mission to Rs 67,000 crore in her proposals for Budget 2025-26 and said that the Mission stands extended until 2028.

FM Sitharaman stated that 15 crore households representing 80 per cent of India’s rural population have benefitted from the Jal Jeevan Mission since 2019.

She added that access to potable tap water connections is provided under this Mission, and in the next three years, the target is to achieve 100 per cent coverage.

Jal Jeevan Mission’s focus will be on the quality of infrastructure and operation and maintenance of rural piped water supply schemes through “Jan Bhagidhari”.

Separate MoUs will be signed with states and UTs to ensure sustainability and citizen-centric water service delivery, she explained.

The Union Government has launched several flagship schemes aimed at fostering inclusive rural development, poverty alleviation, and improving the living conditions in rural areas.

These initiatives, implemented under the Ministry of Rural Development and other key departments, address critical areas such as employment generation, housing, infrastructure, skill development, and social welfare.

For instance, the vision of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act is to enhance the livelihood security of rural households across the country by providing at least 100 days of guaranteed wage employment in a financial year to every rural household whose adult members volunteer to do unskilled manual work.

MGNREGA recognises the importance of strengthening the livelihood resource base of the poor by reaching the most vulnerable sections of rural areas, including Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, women-headed households, and other marginalised groups.

Adopted in the Union Budget 2017-18, Mission Antyodaya is a convergence and accountability framework aiming to bring optimum use and management of resources allocated by 26 Ministries / Department of the Government of India under various programmes for the development of rural areas.

It is envisaged as a state-led initiative with Gram Panchayats as focal points of convergence efforts.

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