Business
Primary market scenario post April 2022
The world has been affected by Covid-19 for over 24 months now. However, capital markets used this opportunity and had a fantastic run during the same whether it be secondary markets or for that matter primary markets. A striking feature of primary market offerings during calendar year 2021 was the fact that the bulk of the offerings, as much as roughly 80 per cent was offer for sale. This OFS was dominated by PE investors who took advantage of the markets and sold their stake at unbelievable valuations. This was also the period when tech platform companies and new age companies hit the market. As usual, the market had its fair share of successes and failures.
The driving force behind the listing gains was the oversubscription witnessed across companies barring a handful. This oversubscription came at a cost- the cost of funding the application and this got built into the listing price. This gave a feeling that the issue did well post listing. In reality, most of these companies have lost sharply from their highs and have given up a large part of their gains. Physical events of companies launching their roadshows had stopped and they had become digital with Zoom webinars being the way. This system had its advantages and disadvantages with time to complete being reduced to just one day. Further it gave an unfair advantage to merchant bankers and promoters as conferences were conducted behind an effective censor board in the form of a moderator and tough questions being simply avoided.
An interesting incident was in the Zomato digital event where the company made its entire presentation in US dollars forgetting the basic fact that in an Indian issue, the currency of subscription is Indian Rupees. Fortunately, no other such event has happened thereafter thankfully.
Let us move to April 2022. The scenario has changed completely. There are new regulations imposed by RBI and SEBI. RBI has introduced a ceiling on the amount of money that can be lent by an NBFC against application at an upper cap of Rs 1 crore. This means every HNI can borrow just one crore each. This would mean in simple terms that the HNI portion which has seen oversubscriptions of 200-600 times would just not happen. The method of controlling this lending would be the PAN card. The second thing would be that this oversubscription came at a cost. The cost of funding. When there is no leveraging, there is no cost of funding. This would have a dramatic impact on the unofficial but rampant grey market. Premiums there would crash and the obnoxious returns made on listing would simply vanish. This would put pressure on subscriptions from other categories as well. The day when an IPO for Rs 1,000 crore garnered subscription across categories of Rs 40,000-60,000 would just stop.
SEBI has split the HNI bucket of 15 per cent into two with the first bucket of 5 per cent for application between 2 lakhs to 10 lakhs. The remaining 10 per cent is for applications which are greater than Rs 10 lakhs. The allotment in these categories in case of oversubscription would be on basis of lots like retail. This implies that allotment would be uniform to all applicants of the base lot size which would be Rs 2 lakhs and 10 lakhs as the case maybe on basis of lottery. In case of undersubscription, allotment would be on normal basis where the applicant would get shares on the basis of his subscription.
The other major change is with respect to anchor allocation and lock-in. Half the shares allotted to anchors would be locked for 30 days while the balance half would be locked in for 90 days. This would make anchor investors seek comfort on the pricing of IPO’s and indirectly seek comfort that the issue is reasonably priced so that they do not go under during the mandatory lock-in period.
Let us look at the HNI bucket with an example. For assumption we take a size of the primary offering which could include fresh issue and offer for sale of Rs 1,000 crore. Fifty per cent of the issue would be for QIB’s, 15 per cent for HNI’s and the balance 35 per cent for retail. Of the 50 per cent for QIB’s, 60 per cent would be for anchors. In this example, Rs 300 crore would be for anchors with Rs 150 crore of shares being locked in for the customary 30 days and balance Rs 150 crore for the new period of 90 days. Any anchor would now take a view that his invested price or issue price should not go below the issue price in 90 days. This would give additional comfort to other investors hopefully.
HNI bucket of 5 per cent for Rs 2 lakhs to 10 lakhs would mean Rs 50 crore. This would require 2,500 applications of Rs 2 lakhs to be subscribed on lots. The larger bucket of 10 per cent or Rs 100 crore would require 1,000 applications of Rs 10 lakhs to be subscribed. When the allotment is capped at this system unlike the earlier proportionate, many large applications would be deterred until and unless on the last day just before closing time there is a feeling that the issue may not get subscribed in the HNI category. Then people would look at the issue and make larger applications than 10 lakhs.
In the new scheme of things there would be two major factors which would see a change. The first is subscription levels where three-digit subscription levels in HNI category would be a thing of the past. Second would be as far as premiums are concerned. They would fall significantly as there is no logical cost of interest which could decide the logical premium. The impact of these two factors combined should put pressure on pricing by merchant bankers and promoters.
As an analyst, a person like me would be very happy that management and merchant bankers would now have to justify valuations rather than take the easy way out of suggesting that there is a 50-60 per cent grey market premium. If you feel the price is high, sell in the grey market.
Interesting times ahead for primary markets which will learn to evolve with these changes as well.
Business
Sensex, Nifty post moderate losses over Middle East conflict

Mumbai, March 11: The Indian equity markets posted moderate losses in early trade on Wednesday over cautious sentiment amid the ongoing war between US-Israel and Iran, leading to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
As of 9.25 am, Sensex lost 109 points, or 0.14 per cent, to reach 78,096 and Nifty eased 26 points, or 0.11 per cent to reach 24,234.
Main broad-cap indices showed divergence with the benchmark indices, as the Nifty Midcap 100 gained 0.72 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 added 0.85 per cent.
All sectoral indices traded in green except Nifty FMCG, financial services and private banks. Private banks led the losses down 0.73 per cent. Nifty media, metal and consumer durables were among the top gainers, up 1.52 per cent, 1.58 per cent and 1.25 per cent, respectively.
Near-term resistance for Nifty is placed at 24370-24416 area, while strong support spans the 23700-24080 zone, analysts said.
Derivatives data from yesterday’s session showed that foreign investors and proprietary traders remained positive, while retail investors went bearish, they added.
Resistance for Bank Nifty is seen near 57,200–57,300 zone, while support is located in the 56,600–56,700 zone, market participants said.
Sectorally, auto, financials, and consumer-oriented stocks led the recovery in the previous session, while some pressure was seen in select IT and oil & gas counters. Broader markets also remained firm, with midcap and small-cap stocks outperforming the frontline indices, reflecting selective buying interest across sectors.
On Wednesday, markets remained unsettled over fading hopes for an early end to the US-Israeli war on Iran and stagflation concerns compounded by US President Donald Trump’s threat of retaliations following reports of Iran mining the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices which had earlier this week touched $120 a barrel, dropped below 90-mark over reports of a group of countries planning to tap emergency crude reserves to mitigate disruption caused by the conflict.
International Brent crude was down 0.44 per cent at $87.39 per barrel early on Wednesday.
In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai advanced 0.05 per cent, and Shenzhen added 0.85 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei moved up 2.48 per cent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 0.33 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi gained 3.41 per cent.
The US markets ended mixed overnight as Nasdaq added 0.01 per cent. The S&P 500 lost 0.21 per cent, and the Dow Jones declined 0.07 per cent.
On March 10, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold equities worth Rs 4,685 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 6,250 crore.
Business
Sensex, Nifty fall nearly 2 pc amid US-Iran war

Mumbai, March 9: Indian stock markets ended sharply lower on Monday as rising geopolitical tensions linked to the ongoing US-Iran war weighed on investor sentiment.
Although the indices recovered partially from the day’s lows after crude oil prices eased.
The Nifty settled at 24,028.05, down 422.40 points or 1.73 per cent. The index also officially entered the technical correction zone after falling more than 10 per cent from its record high of 26,373, which it had touched on January 5.
The Sensex ended the day at 77,566.16, falling 1,352.74 points or 1.71 per cent.
Despite the sharp fall, both indices managed to recover from their intra-day lows as oil prices softened during the session.
The Nifty rebounded about 160 points from its day’s low of 23,868.05, while the Sensex recovered nearly 1,142 points from the intra-day low of 76,424.55.
Commenting on Nifty technical outlook, experts said that the immediate support is placed around 23,700–23,600, and a decisive breakdown below this level could extend the decline toward the 23,400–23,300 zone.
“On the upside, immediate resistance is seen around 24,300 (gap area), followed by a stronger hurdle near 24,600, which needs to be reclaimed to signal any meaningful recovery,” an analyst stated.
Market participants remained cautious amid uncertainty surrounding the conflict between the United States and Iran, which has increased volatility in global financial markets and energy prices.
Broader markets performed worse than the benchmark indices during the session. The Nifty MidCap Index ended 1.97 per cent lower, while the Nifty SmallCap Index declined 2.22 per cent.
Among sectoral indices, the Nifty PSU Bank Index was the worst performer, falling 3.97 per cent as selling pressure intensified in public sector banking stocks.
On the other hand, the Nifty IT Index showed relative resilience and managed to close slightly higher, gaining 0.08 per cent to end at 30,162.05.
Analysts said markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and movements in crude oil prices, which could continue to influence investor sentiment in the near term.
Business
Oil prices jump past $100 as Iran conflict shakes markets

Washington, March 9: Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel as the conflict involving Iran disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz and rattled global markets.
US President Donald Trump defended the spike. He said higher oil prices were a temporary cost tied to confronting Iran’s nuclear threat.
“Short-term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
“ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!”
Crude oil prices almost touched $110 per barrel after major Middle East producers reduced output while the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed due to the Iran conflict, CNBC reported Sunday.
West Texas Intermediate crude jumped about 20.75 per cent, or $18.83, to $109.75 per barrel. Brent crude rose more than 18 per cent to about $109.48 per barrel, according to the report.
The jump marks one of the biggest weekly gains in oil futures trading since the early 1980s, it said.
The rally reflects fears that the Strait of Hormuz could remain disrupted. The narrow waterway is one of the world’s most critical oil routes. A large share of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments moves through the Strait.
The Wall Street Journal reported that tanker traffic through the Strait slowed sharply as ships avoided the region after threats and attacks linked to the conflict.
Gulf producers have begun cutting output. Storage tanks are filling up. Without export routes, some producers are shutting wells or slowing production.
Financial markets reacted quickly.
Stocks in Asia dropped sharply when trading opened. Japan’s benchmark index fell about five per cent. South Korea’s market dropped more than seven per cent, The New York Times reported. Both economies depend heavily on imported oil and gas.
Analysts warn that prices could rise further if the conflict drags on. Market forecasts cited by financial trackers suggest crude could reach $143 per barrel by the end of the year.
Energy historian Daniel Yergin told The Wall Street Journal the situation could become “by far the biggest disruption in world history in terms of daily oil production.”
The conflict is also disrupting global trade routes. The Washington Post reported that missile and drone attacks in the region have slowed commercial shipping and damaged trade corridors between Asia, Europe and the Middle East.
Economists say Asia and Europe could face stronger economic pressure than the United States. Both regions rely heavily on imported energy moving through the Persian Gulf.
The United States may be somewhat protected because of its large domestic oil production and growing energy exports. Still, higher global oil prices can affect American consumers. Rising fuel costs often lead to higher transport and food prices.
Oil shocks in the Persian Gulf have triggered major economic crises before. The 1973 Arab oil embargo and the 1979 Iranian revolution both caused dramatic price spikes and global recessions.
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