New Delhi, June 14: There is 80 per cent likelihood of an El Nino event during the June–August period and probabilities for this, to continue until at least November, are near or above 90 per cent, according to a new report. However, the reservoir level is more than normal storage (till June 11) in the country and the arrivals statistics of vegetables are also satisfactory.

“Only coming days will tell us whether the supply conditions are sufficient from any incipient shock from food and fuel on inflation or not”, said the Bank of Baroda Research note.

According to economist Dipanwita Mazumdar, CPI inflation is projected to settle in the range of 5.2 per cent–5.5 per cent in FY27, assuming some impact from El Nino and an average crude oil price of $90–100 per barrel.

Headline CPI inflation came in at 3.9 per cent in May 2026, lower than BoB Research’s estimate of 4.1 per cent and up from 3.5 per cent in April.

The increase was largely driven by higher food and fuel prices, with food inflation rising to 4.8 per cent.

Transport inflation accelerated following the recent petrol and diesel price hikes, while restaurant and accommodation services inflation also moved higher.

Core inflation (excluding food and fuel) increased to 3.9 per cent, indicating emerging underlying price pressures.

Looking ahead, BoB Research expects inflationary risks from higher fuel costs and weather-related uncertainties, particularly the likelihood of El Nino conditions impacting food prices.

“For food inflation, the spillover of higher fuel cost and likely increase in freight cost might feed into further high inflation in the near term. Hence the second-round pass-through needs to be closely monitored, especially when weather-related risks are elevated this year,” said the report.

Going forward, “we believe that upside risks to core will intensify as firms might pass through some degree of higher input costs to consumers amidst stable demand conditions. The risks on food inflation is also likely to intensify in the coming days,” the report added.

Manila, June 14: At least 61 people were killed, 40 missing and 1,403 injured after a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck off the southern coast of Mindanao, the Philippines, on June 8, said the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council on Sunday.

The NDRRMC earlier said the quake has affected more than 75,300 households, or over 346,000 people, and more than 45,000 affected residents have been displaced, with over 12,600 houses sustaining damage. The quake also triggered 45 related incidents, mainly landslides, reports Xinhua news agency.

The council added that the earthquake affected the operation of 45 road sections, eight bridge sections, one airport, and two seaports, as well as the agriculture, husbandry and fishery industries. Power services were affected across 48 cities and municipalities.

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology said the tectonic earthquake occurred at 7:37 a.m. local time at a depth of 33 km, with the epicentre 32 km southwest of the coast of Maasim town in Sarangani province on Mindanao Island.

Earlier, Junie Castillo, spokesperson for the Philippines’ Office of Civil Defence, said 10 victims were reported in South Cotabato’s General Santos, a port city with a population of over 700,000, and at least 12 people remain missing so far.

The deaths were caused by falling debris, building collapse and landslides. The Philippine National Police earlier said that no fewer than 134 people were injured.

A two-story school building in General Santos collapsed with students trapped inside, and authorities said they are verifying details of the incident. Online videos show university and restaurant buildings collapsed in disaster-hit areas.

Some commercial facilities sustained structural damage, with signs falling and window panes shattered. Local residents rushed outdoors to seek safety.

The powerful earthquake hit shortly after schools across the Philippines started reopening following the summer break. Surveillance footage from several schools captured violent shaking during the quake. Teachers and students either evacuated urgently or took shelter under desks.

The number of schools affected by the earthquake has risen to 8,642 across 43 divisions in six regions, local media reported, citing figures from the Department of Education.

New Delhi, June 14: The Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) in Madhya Pradesh has intensified its crackdown on suspected anti-national activities, continuing raids for the second consecutive day and arresting alleged mastermind and senior agent Naeem Qureshi in a major development in the case.

The arrested accused was taken into custody from the Sarangpur area of Uttar Pradesh and later produced before the court, where he was remanded to four days of ATS custody for further interrogation.

He is accused of sharing sensitive information with foreign elements, training Bhopal resident Mohammad Faraz, and planning to send him to Afghanistan. Evidence of jihadist literature, suspicious documents, and calls to Afghanistan and Pakistan have been found.

Officials said that during the investigation, evidence, including suspected jihad-related literature, suspicious documents, and financial transaction records linked to religious institutions, was recovered.

ATS sources further stated that digital examination of the accused’s mobile phone revealed communication with numbers based in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Investigators also found evidence suggesting the accused used an application to communicate with foreign contacts.

The probe has also indicated that photographs and videos from multiple cities in Uttar Pradesh were allegedly being sent to Pakistan, raising concerns about a wider cross-state network.

Investigators suspect that the module may be spread across several states and could be operating in a sleeper-cell-like structure. Agencies are now working to identify additional members and establish the full extent of the alleged network.

A statement issued by the Madhya Pradesh Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) said the operation also led to further arrests and detentions. It said ATS arrested Haji Azhar from Dhar (Madhya Pradesh) and also brought a suspect from Nuh, Haryana, to Bhopal for questioning.

The agency further alleged that a handler based in Saudi Arabia was inciting youths for jihad-related activities.

Officials said the investigation is ongoing, and further arrests are likely as agencies continue to examine digital evidence, financial trails, and communication records connected to the case.