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Nifty is due for a pause, may even ease in early part of 2022: Report

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Even after the GDP bounce-back off the low Covid-19 base, India can manage a 7.7 per cent expansion in FY23 and hence deliver growth that is almost unrivalled globally, UBS said in a report.

Yet, after a stellar two years for the Nifty where it even left the S&P behind at times (even in US Dollar terms), we believe the valuation does not fully reflect upcoming headwinds, the report said.

These include rising interest rates both globally and in India, and importantly, the return of India’s historic soft spot, current account deficits. “These headwinds may affect not only the country’s stock market but also the INR. We hence believe a multi-month pause is in order, the recent correction notwithstanding,” the report said.

“All told, within the space of two years, the current account is likely to swing from its surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP towards a 1.9 per cent deficit, in our view. We believe this will bring down the INR. We look for USDINR to trade towards 79 levels by end-2022,” UBS said.

Another interesting and potentially bearish aspect is the lopsidedness of recent inflows that have kept the market afloat. They are now derived almost exclusively from domestic retail investors. However, the past has shown that this type of flows can stop when markets no longer exhibit a steady rise, and potentially higher bank deposit rates could become a potent competitor again when the RBI starts to hike interest rates, UBS said.

India’s stock market left most emerging markets and even developed markets counterparts in the dust during 2020 and especially 2021. That said, and the structural appeal of the Indian market notwithstanding, we believe in the near term the Nifty is due for a pause, and may even ease in the early part of 2022, UBS said.

“A key reason is indeed the still lofty valuation premium. We expect this process to continue. The earnings growth of 28.3 per cent for FY22 and 11.7 per cent for FY23 works as a partial counter-force and will likely help to prevent a strong correction. At the same time, we stress that as is often the case, consensus estimates look implausibly high to us”, UBS said.

Still, financials should come to the fore on the back of rising loan growth, coupled with expanding interest margins. We also like cyclical names in the vehicle, cement and construction space. We believe materials stocks on multi-year high valuations will likely underperform as some supply tightness eases, the report said.

In our estimate, the central bank will likely start to slightly tighten policy measures from March and subsequently raise its repo rate around September, followed by a second rate hike later during the year to arrive at 4.5 per cent, the report said.

During the early part of the pandemic, exports held up reasonably well while imports plummeted. Yet, for FY23, we expect only small export growth while imports should come roaring back as the economy reopens further and oil prices are rising.

Business

ITR deadline, RBI MPC meet among key financial deadlines, events in August

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New Delhi, Aug 1: August brings a slew of financial deadlines and events that could affect taxpayers and banking customers, including an August 31 income tax return (ITR) deadline for businesses and professionals, the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting and bank service charge changes.

Taxpayers who are required to file ITR‑3 or ITR‑4 and not subject to tax audit — including self‑employed professionals, freelancers and small business owners using presumptive taxation under Sections 44AD and 44ADA — must file income tax returns by August 31.

Late filing fee penalty could be up to Rs 5,000 under Section 234F and interest on unpaid tax under Section 234A, where applicable.

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is scheduled to start from August 3, with its policy decision due on August 5.

RBI’s stance on interest rates and liquidity could influence home loan EMIs, lending rates and fixed‑deposit returns in the coming months.

The RBI is likely to keep policy rates unchanged as consumer price inflation is expected to remain above 5 per cent for the next two quarters and Q1 FY27 domestic product growth may exceed about 7 per cent, a recent report said.

An explicitly dovish message is less likely given oil volatility, rupee pressure and external flow caution.

Meanwhile, Indian Railways has launched a token-based system for Tatkal ticket booking at reservation counters from August 1 to streamline the booking process and reduce crowding at ticket counters.

Axis Bank will cut benefits on its premium Magnus for Burgundy card from August 28, raising the Dynamic Currency Conversion markup from 1.5 per cent to 2 per cent. Reward points on toll‑related transactions and gift‑card purchases will be discontinued.

Several banks are set to revise select service charges in August, like debit card annual maintenance charges, transaction fees, or other banking service charges.

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Indian Railways launches online excess luggage booking with ticket reservations

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New Delhi, July 31: Passengers travelling by train can now book and pay for excess luggage online while reserving their tickets, as Indian Railways on Friday rolled out a new digital facility aimed at making the travel process more convenient.

The service integrates excess luggage booking with the online ticket reservation system, eliminating the need for passengers to visit parcel offices separately before boarding.

Previously, travellers carrying baggage beyond the free allowance had to complete a separate booking process at railway parcel counters, often leading to additional paperwork and long queues.

The online excess luggage booking facility is available only to passengers holding confirmed tickets and is restricted to travel classes where carrying luggage beyond the free allowance is permitted upon payment of the prescribed charges.

Passengers travelling in AC First Class, AC 2-Tier, First Class, Sleeper Class and Second Class can avail of the service.

However, those travelling in AC 3-Tier and AC Chair Car will not be eligible, as the maximum permissible baggage limit in these classes is the same as the free luggage allowance.

Under the existing baggage rules, AC First Class passengers are entitled to carry up to 70 kg free of charge and can carry a maximum of 150 kg after paying excess luggage charges.

Passengers in AC 2-Tier and First Class are allowed 50 kg free, with a maximum permissible limit of 100 kg.

Sleeper Class passengers can carry 40 kg free and up to 80 kg in total, while Second Class passengers have a free allowance of 35 kg and a maximum limit of 70 kg.

In contrast, AC 3-Tier and AC Chair Car passengers can carry up to 40 kg, which also serves as the maximum permissible limit.

Indian Railways has clarified that passengers carrying baggage beyond the free allowance but within the prescribed maximum limits will be required to pay applicable excess luggage charges.

Apart from weight restrictions, the Railways also enforces size limits for luggage carried inside passenger coaches.

Trunks, suitcases and boxes measuring up to 100 cm × 60 cm × 25 cm are generally permitted inside compartments.

However, passengers travelling in AC 3-Tier and AC Chair Car coaches must adhere to a smaller size limit of 55 cm × 45 cm × 22.5 cm.

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IBM partners Sarvam to strengthen India’s sovereign AI ecosystem

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New Delhi, July 31: IBM and homegrown AI startup Sarvam have partnered to accelerate the development and adoption of sovereign artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in India, with a focus on government agencies, public sector organisations and regulated enterprises, according to a statement on Friday.

Under the partnership, the two companies will jointly demonstrate and pilot sovereign AI technologies for use cases such as citizen services, grievance redressal, document processing and administrative workflows.

The collaboration combines IBM Sovereign Core, the company’s sovereign-by-design AI software platform, with Sarvam’s India-first sovereign AI stack, which includes reasoning models and multilingual language and voice AI developed and trained in India.

The combined offering is designed to help organisations deploy AI while maintaining greater control over data, governance, security and compliance in line with India’s regulatory and operational requirements.

In addition, the initiative aims to accelerate sovereign AI adoption through innovation pilots, solution accelerators, technical advisory services and knowledge-sharing programmes.

The IBM GovTech AI Innovation Center in Lucknow will serve as a joint incubation and demonstration hub where government departments, public sector organisations and enterprises can evaluate practical sovereign AI applications and address technical, operational and governance requirements before scaling deployments.

“Sovereign AI is not simply about where AI runs. It is about giving organisations control over how AI is governed, deployed and operated,” said Sriram Raghavan, General Manager, IBM Software, India and Software Innovation Lab.

He said IBM Sovereign Core provides an enterprise-grade platform designed to help governments and regulated enterprises scale AI while addressing governance, security and compliance requirements.

Pratyush Kumar, Co-Founder of Sarvam, said sovereign AI must work within the systems governments and enterprises already rely on while supporting large-scale operations.

“Our stack puts models, voice and language technologies on top of it, so a citizen can access a benefit or resolve a grievance in their own language, on a phone call,” Kumar said.

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