Business
Nifty is due for a pause, may even ease in early part of 2022: Report
Even after the GDP bounce-back off the low Covid-19 base, India can manage a 7.7 per cent expansion in FY23 and hence deliver growth that is almost unrivalled globally, UBS said in a report.
Yet, after a stellar two years for the Nifty where it even left the S&P behind at times (even in US Dollar terms), we believe the valuation does not fully reflect upcoming headwinds, the report said.
These include rising interest rates both globally and in India, and importantly, the return of India’s historic soft spot, current account deficits. “These headwinds may affect not only the country’s stock market but also the INR. We hence believe a multi-month pause is in order, the recent correction notwithstanding,” the report said.
“All told, within the space of two years, the current account is likely to swing from its surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP towards a 1.9 per cent deficit, in our view. We believe this will bring down the INR. We look for USDINR to trade towards 79 levels by end-2022,” UBS said.
Another interesting and potentially bearish aspect is the lopsidedness of recent inflows that have kept the market afloat. They are now derived almost exclusively from domestic retail investors. However, the past has shown that this type of flows can stop when markets no longer exhibit a steady rise, and potentially higher bank deposit rates could become a potent competitor again when the RBI starts to hike interest rates, UBS said.
India’s stock market left most emerging markets and even developed markets counterparts in the dust during 2020 and especially 2021. That said, and the structural appeal of the Indian market notwithstanding, we believe in the near term the Nifty is due for a pause, and may even ease in the early part of 2022, UBS said.
“A key reason is indeed the still lofty valuation premium. We expect this process to continue. The earnings growth of 28.3 per cent for FY22 and 11.7 per cent for FY23 works as a partial counter-force and will likely help to prevent a strong correction. At the same time, we stress that as is often the case, consensus estimates look implausibly high to us”, UBS said.
Still, financials should come to the fore on the back of rising loan growth, coupled with expanding interest margins. We also like cyclical names in the vehicle, cement and construction space. We believe materials stocks on multi-year high valuations will likely underperform as some supply tightness eases, the report said.
In our estimate, the central bank will likely start to slightly tighten policy measures from March and subsequently raise its repo rate around September, followed by a second rate hike later during the year to arrive at 4.5 per cent, the report said.
During the early part of the pandemic, exports held up reasonably well while imports plummeted. Yet, for FY23, we expect only small export growth while imports should come roaring back as the economy reopens further and oil prices are rising.
Business
Sensex, Nifty extend rally for 3rd day on hopes of US-Iran ceasefire extension

Mumbai, April 21: Indian equity benchmarks extended their gains for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, as investor sentiment improved amid expectations that the United States and Iran may prolong their ceasefire during upcoming talks.
The Nifty and the Sensex ended higher, supported by buying in select heavyweight stocks and optimism around easing geopolitical tensions in West Asia.
At the closing bell, the Nifty was at 24,576.60, up by 0.87 per cent or 211.75 points. The Sensex ended the intra-day session 0.96 per cent or 753.03 points higher at 79,273.33.
Commenting on Nifty technical outlook, experts said that the 24,600 level now acts as an immediate resistance where minor supply was observed.
“A decisive breakout and sustained move above this level could open further upside toward 24,850, followed by the key psychological level of 25,000, where stronger supply is expected,” an analyst stated.
“On the downside, the 24,350–24,400 range has now turned into an immediate support zone after acting as resistance earlier,” an analyst mentioned.
Among the top gainers on the Nifty were Nestle India, Trent, and Hindustan Unilever, which helped lift the benchmark index.
Broader markets also reflected positive momentum, with the Nifty MidCap index closing 0.49 per cent higher and the Nifty SmallCap index rising 0.88 per cent.
On the sectoral front, the Nifty FMCG and the Nifty Realty outperformed other indices, driven by strong buying interest.
In contrast, the Nifty Pharma lagged and emerged as the worst-performing sector for the day.
Investors remained cautiously optimistic about geopolitical developments, as both Iranian and US delegations, along with US Vice President JD Vance, are expected to participate in talks aimed at reaching a broader agreement to end hostilities in the region.
However, uncertainty persists as tensions between the two countries escalated ahead of the meeting.
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a post on X that Tehran does not support negotiations under threats and indicated that the country is prepared to respond strongly if required.
Earlier, US President Donald Trump warned that failure to reach an agreement before the ceasefire deadline could trigger fresh military escalation, stating that “a lot of bombs” could go off if talks collapse.
“Indian equities are expected to continue their gradual upmove, supported by improving macros, easing crude, and strong Q4 earnings momentum,” an analyst stated.
Business
‘Make attractive fuel option’: Govt panel favours scrapping excise duty on CNG

New Delhi, April 17: A high-level government committee, supported by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB), has recommended removing excise duty on Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) to lower prices and promote consumption of the green fuel to meet India’s target of achieving a 15 per cent share of natural gas in the fuel mix by 2030.
The key recommendations include removing the 14 per cent excise duty to make CNG a more attractive fuel option and also lowering GST on CNG vehicles to 5 per cent to bring them on par with electric vehicles to accelerate adoption.
The recommendations favour maintaining a competitive price difference between CNG and petrol so that consumers are encouraged to switch to the green fuel.
The tax relief on natural gas is anticipated to impact roughly 1.9 crore households and 38.41 lakh potential users.
These proposals aim to address the currently high taxes, such as the 14 per cent excise duty and state VAT, which have made CNG less competitive in certain regions, particularly in the southern states.
Meanwhile, the government has also been encouraging households to switch to piped natural gas (PNG) from LPG as the West Asia crisis has disrupted supply chains. The expansion of piped natural gas (PNG) has gained momentum, with about 4.58 lakh new PNG connections being gasified and about 5.1 lakh additional customers registering for new connections since March this year.
Till April 15, about 35,000 PNG consumers have surrendered their LPG connections via MYPNGD.in website. States have been advised to facilitate new PNG connections for domestic and commercial consumers.
The government is encouraging natural gas adoption through synergy between the PNGRB and states as part of India’s transition toward a cleaner and more sustainable energy future. As part of the strategy to increase the share of natural gas in the country’s energy mix, the expansion of the City Gas Distribution (CGD) network through Piped Natural Gas (PNG) connections has emerged as one of the key performing areas.
Spearheaded by entities authorised by the PNGRB, the CGD network now spans 307 geographical areas (GAs), covering nearly 100 per cent of the country’s geographical area except islands, touching around 784 districts across 34 states and Union Territories. The government has undertaken a series of policy and regulatory measures to catalyse growth in this sector.
These measures range from allocating administered price domestic gas and easing supply mechanisms to mandating PNG provisions in government and defence residential complexes, granting Public Utility status to CGD projects, and directing the CPWD and the NBCC to include PNG provisions in all government residential complexes.
Business
Sensex, Nifty open higher as geopolitical tensions ease

Mumbai, April 16: The Indian stock markets opened on a higher note on Thursday, with the equity benchmarks mirroring global cues amid hopes of easing geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran.
Sensex opened 566 points or 0.73 per cent higher at 78,677 in opening trade, while Nifty began the session at 24,385, up 154 points or 0.64 per cent. Sectorally, gains were led by realty, media, consumer durables and financial stocks.
Category-wise, small-cap and mid-cap stocks were the top gainers, with the Nifty Smallcap 100, Nifty Smallcap 250 and Nifty Midcap 100 rising up to 1 per cent in early trade.
On Wednesday, FIIs remained net buyers to the tune of approximately Rs 666 crore, while DIIs turned net sellers with outflows of around Rs 569 crore.
According to analysts, volatility could pick up again depending on global developments and upcoming triggers.
After the recent sharp rally, the market may witness some consolidation or profit booking at higher levels, they added.
In contrast, oil commodities traded on a firm note, with Brent crude futures at $94.92 per barrel, down 0.03 per cent, while US WTI crude traded at $91.52, up 0.25 per cent.
On the global front, both US and Asian markets showed positive momentum. Japan’s Nikkei was trading over 2 per cent higher, Hang Seng climbed more than 1 per cent, and South Korea’s KOSPI was up about 2 per cent.
In the US overnight, Wall Street’s major indices — the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq — ended 0.80 per cent and 1.6 per cent higher, respectively.
Meanwhile, the US President said that China is ‘very happy’ with the permanent opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
“I am doing it for them also – and the world. This situation will never happen again. They have agreed not to send weapons to Iran,” he said on his social media platform, Truth Social.
However, the war has resulted in the largest-ever disruption of global oil and gas supplies by choking traffic through the strait, pushing crude prices to nearly $120 per barrel.
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