Business
Nifty is due for a pause, may even ease in early part of 2022: Report
Even after the GDP bounce-back off the low Covid-19 base, India can manage a 7.7 per cent expansion in FY23 and hence deliver growth that is almost unrivalled globally, UBS said in a report.
Yet, after a stellar two years for the Nifty where it even left the S&P behind at times (even in US Dollar terms), we believe the valuation does not fully reflect upcoming headwinds, the report said.
These include rising interest rates both globally and in India, and importantly, the return of India’s historic soft spot, current account deficits. “These headwinds may affect not only the country’s stock market but also the INR. We hence believe a multi-month pause is in order, the recent correction notwithstanding,” the report said.
“All told, within the space of two years, the current account is likely to swing from its surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP towards a 1.9 per cent deficit, in our view. We believe this will bring down the INR. We look for USDINR to trade towards 79 levels by end-2022,” UBS said.
Another interesting and potentially bearish aspect is the lopsidedness of recent inflows that have kept the market afloat. They are now derived almost exclusively from domestic retail investors. However, the past has shown that this type of flows can stop when markets no longer exhibit a steady rise, and potentially higher bank deposit rates could become a potent competitor again when the RBI starts to hike interest rates, UBS said.
India’s stock market left most emerging markets and even developed markets counterparts in the dust during 2020 and especially 2021. That said, and the structural appeal of the Indian market notwithstanding, we believe in the near term the Nifty is due for a pause, and may even ease in the early part of 2022, UBS said.
“A key reason is indeed the still lofty valuation premium. We expect this process to continue. The earnings growth of 28.3 per cent for FY22 and 11.7 per cent for FY23 works as a partial counter-force and will likely help to prevent a strong correction. At the same time, we stress that as is often the case, consensus estimates look implausibly high to us”, UBS said.
Still, financials should come to the fore on the back of rising loan growth, coupled with expanding interest margins. We also like cyclical names in the vehicle, cement and construction space. We believe materials stocks on multi-year high valuations will likely underperform as some supply tightness eases, the report said.
In our estimate, the central bank will likely start to slightly tighten policy measures from March and subsequently raise its repo rate around September, followed by a second rate hike later during the year to arrive at 4.5 per cent, the report said.
During the early part of the pandemic, exports held up reasonably well while imports plummeted. Yet, for FY23, we expect only small export growth while imports should come roaring back as the economy reopens further and oil prices are rising.
Business
Early indications of FIIs turning towards Indian stock markets amid AI upheavals

There are early indications of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turning towards India markets amid the AI stock upheavals globally, analysts said on Sunday.
They said it is too early to say that this is a trend reversal, but early signs are positive. During the last four trading days ending on October 30, FIIs were buyers in three days in the cash market.
There are many factors that might have triggered this change in stance.
“One, the US Fed holding rates are a positive for equity markets globally. Second, the valuations in Indian markets, particularly in large caps, have become very attractive. Three, perhaps this is more important, there are clear indications of sustained momentum in economic growth in India,” said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd.
The surge in credit growth is impressive and indicative of robust growth ahead. Credit grew by 19.1 per cent in September (year-on-year). Credit growth to industry is at 19.5 per cent, and services are at 28.3 per cent.
There are signs of improvement in industrial capex, too. Another factor is the weakening of the AI trade globally. This change in stance of FPIs helped Nifty reclaim the 23,000 level, said the analyst.
Even while selling in large-cap financials, FIIs have been systematically accumulating stocks in pharmaceuticals and healthcare and select digital platform companies.
FIIs have net-sold $59 billion worth Indian equities in the 24 months leading up to September (about $64 billion with October 2026 month-to-date), and rolling 12-month outflows hit a record $40 billion in June 2026.
“FIIs return when oil breaks, and flows then confirm. The US midterms (November 3) and the Iran path decide when,” according to a note by JM Financial Institutional Securities.
FIIs sold a net $14.9 billion in FY25, $21.9 billion in FY26 and $17.7 billion with October 2026 month-to-date. Before this, FIIs had never sold for more than two straight years.
Business
CTI to launch poster campaign in 20 markets around Delhi’s Ramlila Maidan; urges INDIA Bloc to cancel rally

With Diwali approaching, some Delhi traders have expressed concern over the proposed rally at Ramlila Maidan, with the Chamber of Trade and Industry (CTI) on Saturday launching a massive poster campaign urging that business activities in major markets should not be disrupted during the peak festive season and urging the INDIA Bloc to cancel its ‘Chalo Delhi’ rally.
The CTI, an apex body representing traders and entrepreneurs in Delhi, appealed to Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, saying that traders’ businesses also run on mutual trust, love and affection with their customers.
“You often say that you run shops of love in the market of hatred. Our shops also run on the basis of mutual trust, love and affection with our customers. Therefore, we humbly request you not to sacrifice our shops of love and business for a rally during the peak season of India’s biggest festival, Diwali,” the CTI said.
CTI has announced that starting on Saturday, these posters will be put up in 20 major wholesale markets within a 5-km radius of Ramlila Maidan.
CTI Chairman Brijesh Goyal said the poster campaign was intended to highlight the concerns of traders whose businesses could be affected by traffic restrictions and congestion around the rally venue.
“You talked about opening ‘shops of love’ during the Bharat Jodo Yatra, but in Delhi, our 300-year-old shops of love are being closed because of the rally,” Goyal said.
He cited businesses ranging from the famous parantha shops of Chandni Chowk and spice traders of Khari Baoli to bangle and bindi sellers in Sadar Bazaar, lehenga shops in Chandni Chowk and other traditional establishments.
“Each shop supports the families of 10 to 20 people,” he added.
The CTI said it would put up posters in major wholesale markets located within a five-km radius of Ramlila Maidan.
These include Chandni Chowk, Sadar Bazaar, Khari Baoli, Bhagirath Palace, Naya Bazaar, Chawri Bazaar, Kashmiri Gate, Daryaganj, Connaught Place, Karol Bagh, Nabi Karim, Paharganj, Ajmeri Gate, Lahori Gate, Janpath, Palika Bazaar, Ballimaran and Kinari Bazaar.
According to the traders’ body, a large gathering at Ramlila Maidan could lead to traffic congestion and restrictions in the surrounding markets.
Goyal said the proposed rally, scheduled just days before Dhanteras, could affect festive business activities.
He expressed concern that the arrival of a large number of people and around 20,000 vehicles could result in traffic jams across central Delhi and disrupt commercial activity.
The CTI claimed that the festive business of 2 million traders and the livelihoods of 7.5 million people dependent on these markets could be affected if restrictions were imposed during the peak Diwali shopping period.
Business
Axis Trustee warns contempt proceeding against Yes Bank over AT1 bonds

Axis Trustee Services Limited, the trustee for the Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds issued by Yes Bank, called upon the private sector lender to reinstate the bonds and take necessary corporate actions within three days, failing which the former would initiate contempt proceedings in Supreme Court against the bank.
The trustee said in a filing that non-compliance will constitute “wilful disobedience by the lender of the Supreme Court’s October 15 judgment”.
Yes Bank said it had responded to the trustee, acknowledging the Supreme Court judgment and reiterating that it was fully committed to acting in accordance with the ruling and applicable law, according to an exchange filing.
The Bank replied to the Trustee that it is cognisant of the matters and is examining the SC Judgment and its implications in detail.
“The Bank will take all such steps and measures as are necessary and permissible under applicable law,” Yes Bank said.
“Should the Bank fail to comply with the said judgment as called upon above within the stipulated period, we shall be constrained to initiate proceedings for contempt before the SC, against the Bank and its directors and officers responsible for compliance with the said judgment, without any further notice, entirely at the Bank’s risk as to costs and consequences,” Axis Trustee said in its letter to Yes Bank.
Bank has merely stated that it is “examining the judgment in detail, including evaluating all available options and suitable actions or steps going forward,” the trustee said, adding that under the guise of evaluating its options, the bank should not withhold compliance with the said judgment.
Yes Bank rejected the allegation in its response letter, clarifying that it had not wilfully disobeyed the court.
“The Bank does not accept the characterisation in your Letter of its conduct as wilful disobedience and the assertions in your Letter are baseless and without merit,” it said.
The Supreme Court had, on October 15, upheld the Bombay High Court’s decision to set aside Yes Bank’s Rs 8,415 crore AT1 bond write-off carried out in March 2020. It ruled that the bank’s administrator had acted outside its authority and the applicable regulatory framework.
Axis Trustee challenged the decision of the then administrator of Yes Bank to write down the AT1 bonds in March 2020 before the Bombay High Court.
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