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Nifty is due for a pause, may even ease in early part of 2022: Report

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Even after the GDP bounce-back off the low Covid-19 base, India can manage a 7.7 per cent expansion in FY23 and hence deliver growth that is almost unrivalled globally, UBS said in a report.

Yet, after a stellar two years for the Nifty where it even left the S&P behind at times (even in US Dollar terms), we believe the valuation does not fully reflect upcoming headwinds, the report said.

These include rising interest rates both globally and in India, and importantly, the return of India’s historic soft spot, current account deficits. “These headwinds may affect not only the country’s stock market but also the INR. We hence believe a multi-month pause is in order, the recent correction notwithstanding,” the report said.

“All told, within the space of two years, the current account is likely to swing from its surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP towards a 1.9 per cent deficit, in our view. We believe this will bring down the INR. We look for USDINR to trade towards 79 levels by end-2022,” UBS said.

Another interesting and potentially bearish aspect is the lopsidedness of recent inflows that have kept the market afloat. They are now derived almost exclusively from domestic retail investors. However, the past has shown that this type of flows can stop when markets no longer exhibit a steady rise, and potentially higher bank deposit rates could become a potent competitor again when the RBI starts to hike interest rates, UBS said.

India’s stock market left most emerging markets and even developed markets counterparts in the dust during 2020 and especially 2021. That said, and the structural appeal of the Indian market notwithstanding, we believe in the near term the Nifty is due for a pause, and may even ease in the early part of 2022, UBS said.

“A key reason is indeed the still lofty valuation premium. We expect this process to continue. The earnings growth of 28.3 per cent for FY22 and 11.7 per cent for FY23 works as a partial counter-force and will likely help to prevent a strong correction. At the same time, we stress that as is often the case, consensus estimates look implausibly high to us”, UBS said.

Still, financials should come to the fore on the back of rising loan growth, coupled with expanding interest margins. We also like cyclical names in the vehicle, cement and construction space. We believe materials stocks on multi-year high valuations will likely underperform as some supply tightness eases, the report said.

In our estimate, the central bank will likely start to slightly tighten policy measures from March and subsequently raise its repo rate around September, followed by a second rate hike later during the year to arrive at 4.5 per cent, the report said.

During the early part of the pandemic, exports held up reasonably well while imports plummeted. Yet, for FY23, we expect only small export growth while imports should come roaring back as the economy reopens further and oil prices are rising.

Business

Apple iPhone 18 Pro series clocks 15-28 pc rise in initial India demand

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New Delhi, Sep 18: Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max are seeing stronger initial demand in India than their predecessors despite higher prices, with analysts and retailers reporting a 15‑28 per cent year‑on‑year uptick at launch.

“While it’s too early to share definitive sales figures, initial demand for the 18 Pro is outperforming the 17 Pro YoY,” said Tarun Pathak, Research Director, Counterpoint Research after the firm checked data from 12 stores.

“Burgundy color is in demand and along with interest for higher storage variants. Early feedback is positive, though we’ll need to monitor performance over a longer window once the initial launch hype stabilises,” Pathak added.

Apple resellers are driving sales in terms of numbers and catering to buyers across different locations, he said, adding that Apple Stores see massive surges for launch-day enthusiast buying due to strong pre-orders.

Retailers said launch‑day stock supplied to stores had largely sold out and fresh allocations were being assigned, while industry experts said the absence of a standard iPhone 18 this year had concentrated demand on the two Pro models.

Apple began selling the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max in India on Friday, through its online store and six retail outlets across the country. The models can also be bought through Apple’s authorised reseller network, online marketplaces and large-format retailers.

The iPhone 18 Pro starts at Rs 1,64,900 and the iPhone 18 Pro Max at Rs 1,74,900 for the base 256GB models. Apple is offering Rs 7,000 instant cashback on eligible card EMI transactions and Rs 6,000 on eligible card full‑swipe purchases for both Pro models.

Customers exchanging an existing device can also enjoy a trade-in top-up of up to Rs 10,000, depending on the residual value of the device.

Apple’s first foldable smartphone, the iPhone Duo, is expected to hit markets in India from October 23.

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68 Japanese firms finalising manufacturing, research plans in India: Ashwini Vaishnaw

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Mumbai, Sep 18: Union Electronics and Information Technology Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw on Friday said 68 Japanese companies participating in Semicon India 2026 are in the process of finalising their manufacturing, research and partnership plans in India.

Speaking to media during his visit to the Japanese pavilion at the event, Vaishnaw said more than 30 countries are participating in Semicon India 2026, reflecting growing international interest in India’s semiconductor ecosystem.

“Here at the Japanese pavilion, there are 68 Japanese companies. They are finalising their plans for manufacturing, research and partnerships in India,” the Minister said.

Vaishnaw also highlighted the enthusiasm among young people at the semiconductor event, saying India’s semiconductor push is creating opportunities for high-skilled employment and helping develop a talent pool for the sector.

The Minister also showcased a semiconductor chip developed by students of the National Institute of Technology (NIT) Rourkela in Odisha. He said the chip was developed under the talent development programme of India’s Semiconductor Mission and that the students had made a presentation on their work before Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The student-developed chip was displayed to the media during Vaishnaw’s interaction.

Odisha Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi had earlier expressed pride at seeing indigenous chip designs developed by NIT Rourkela being showcased alongside Made-in-India semiconductor chips at Semicon India.

Majhi said the achievement was a matter of pride for Odisha and demonstrated the talent, innovation and research capabilities of institutions in the state.

He also credited Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership and Vaishnaw’s efforts for India’s continued progress towards building a strong and self-reliant semiconductor ecosystem.

The Chief Minister congratulated the scientists, researchers and the entire NIT Rourkela team, noting that talent from Odisha is contributing to India’s semiconductor journey and its broader efforts towards technological self-reliance.

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Govt eases stockholding limit for sugar, traders told to further lower prices

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New Delhi, Sep 18: The government on Friday eased the existing 15-day sugar stockholding limit for bulk consumers to 30 days, subject to the condition that the quantity of stock held beyond the existing 15 days limit is sourced exclusively from sugar imported under advance authorisation scheme (AAS) and tariff rate quota (TRQ).

The stockholding limit for purchase from the open market will remain unchanged and will be restricted to 15 days’ consumption only.

The government has also put in place a mechanism for the declaration and weekly disclosure of sugar stocks every Friday by bulk consumers through the Department of Food and Public Distribution’s online portal, according to an official statement.

The government held detailed consultations with major bulk consumers of sugar and their suggestions have been duly considered with a view to maintaining a stable and orderly sugar market.

Meanwhile, retail sugar prices have declined by around 10 per cent to Rs 58.50 from their peak of Rs 65 in August. However, ex-mill prices have already declined by nearly 25 per cent.

The government observed that the slower decline in retail prices indicates that the benefit of the reduction in ex-mill prices has not yet been fully transmitted through the supply chain to the consumer.

The government made a strong appeal to the sugar trade, wholesalers and retailers to immediately pass on the benefit of the significant reduction in ex-mill sugar prices to consumers, emphasising that the decline in retail prices must keep pace with the correction already achieved at the mill level.

At present, bulk consumers using or consuming more than 10 MT of sugar per month as a raw material for production, consumption or use are permitted to hold sugar stock for a period not exceeding 15 days of their consumption. Bulk consumers have represented that the existing limit may be enhanced, particularly in view of the upcoming festival season.

The measure is intended to strike a balance between the interests of bulk consumers and the need to maintain stability in the domestic sugar market. It will provide greater operational flexibility to genuine industrial consumers during the upcoming festival season while ensuring that additional stocks are sourced from imported sugar rather than placing undue pressure on domestic stocks, the statement said.

In a joint meeting with representatives of ISMA, the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories and sugar trade, Secretary, Department of Food and Public Distribution, underlined that the reduction in ex-mill prices has not yet been reflected fully in retail prices.

The Secretary emphasised that the farmer and the consumer are the two central pillars of India’s sugar policy. The government has consistently worked to balance the interests of sugarcane farmers with the need to maintain stable and reasonable sugar prices for consumers.

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