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Nifty is due for a pause, may even ease in early part of 2022: Report

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Even after the GDP bounce-back off the low Covid-19 base, India can manage a 7.7 per cent expansion in FY23 and hence deliver growth that is almost unrivalled globally, UBS said in a report.

Yet, after a stellar two years for the Nifty where it even left the S&P behind at times (even in US Dollar terms), we believe the valuation does not fully reflect upcoming headwinds, the report said.

These include rising interest rates both globally and in India, and importantly, the return of India’s historic soft spot, current account deficits. “These headwinds may affect not only the country’s stock market but also the INR. We hence believe a multi-month pause is in order, the recent correction notwithstanding,” the report said.

“All told, within the space of two years, the current account is likely to swing from its surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP towards a 1.9 per cent deficit, in our view. We believe this will bring down the INR. We look for USDINR to trade towards 79 levels by end-2022,” UBS said.

Another interesting and potentially bearish aspect is the lopsidedness of recent inflows that have kept the market afloat. They are now derived almost exclusively from domestic retail investors. However, the past has shown that this type of flows can stop when markets no longer exhibit a steady rise, and potentially higher bank deposit rates could become a potent competitor again when the RBI starts to hike interest rates, UBS said.

India’s stock market left most emerging markets and even developed markets counterparts in the dust during 2020 and especially 2021. That said, and the structural appeal of the Indian market notwithstanding, we believe in the near term the Nifty is due for a pause, and may even ease in the early part of 2022, UBS said.

“A key reason is indeed the still lofty valuation premium. We expect this process to continue. The earnings growth of 28.3 per cent for FY22 and 11.7 per cent for FY23 works as a partial counter-force and will likely help to prevent a strong correction. At the same time, we stress that as is often the case, consensus estimates look implausibly high to us”, UBS said.

Still, financials should come to the fore on the back of rising loan growth, coupled with expanding interest margins. We also like cyclical names in the vehicle, cement and construction space. We believe materials stocks on multi-year high valuations will likely underperform as some supply tightness eases, the report said.

In our estimate, the central bank will likely start to slightly tighten policy measures from March and subsequently raise its repo rate around September, followed by a second rate hike later during the year to arrive at 4.5 per cent, the report said.

During the early part of the pandemic, exports held up reasonably well while imports plummeted. Yet, for FY23, we expect only small export growth while imports should come roaring back as the economy reopens further and oil prices are rising.

Business

India’s WTO fisheries ratification a pragmatic step with focus on fair Phase 2

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New Delhi, Oct 8: India’s decision to ratify Phase 1 of the World Trade Organization’s Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies is a pragmatic step to curb illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing while preserving its policy space on issues that directly affect small-scale and artisanal fishers, an official statement said on Thursday.

The statement from the Ministry of Fisheries, Animal Husbandry & Dairying said India deposited its Instrument of Acceptance on July 20, 2026, and that the ratified phase targets IUU fishing, overfished stocks and unregulated high‑seas fishing.

“It does not cover the more difficult questions of overcapacity and overfishing, including subsidies for fuel, gear, ice, vessel construction and modernisation,”

“Those issues belong to Phase 2, where India continues to seek fair and differentiated treatment for developing countries,” the statement said citing views of Dr. M. Krishnan, former Principal Scientist & Head, ICAR – CIFE and Dr. P. Krishnan, Director, BOBP-IGO.

India supports measures aimed at the most harmful fishing practices but insists conservation rules must not reduce the development space of coastal communities that depend on marine fisheries for livelihoods.

“For India, the challenge is not whether to support conservation, but how to ensure that conservation does not come at the cost of equity,” the statement, calling the country’s position principled and practical.

India made clear that its ratification of Phase 1 does not weaken its demand for a longer transition period and more flexible treatment in Phase 2. The call for a 25-year transition period for developing countries within their exclusive economic zones remains part of the broader negotiating position.

India also insists that subsidy disciplines should be assessed using a per-fisher benchmark, rather than through comparisons that overlook vast differences in scale, capacity and state support.

Across the Bay of Bengal region, fisheries are a source of food security, employment and social stability for millions of small-scale fishers rather than merely an economic activity.

Hence, any multilateral discipline on subsidies must recognise the realities of artisanal and coastal fisheries in developing countries, where support is often aimed at livelihood protection rather than industrial expansion.

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Business

Indian equity markets open flat; financial shares drag

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New Delhi, Oct 8: Domestic equity benchmarks opened largely flat on Thursday with Nifty opening around 22,600 mark as gains in IT and pharma stocks were offset by weakness across financial, FMCG and auto stocks.

Nifty opened at 22,599.05, down 4 points or 0.02 per cent.

Similarly, Sensex started at 72,668, up 29.30 points or 0.04 per cent.

Sector-wise, Nifty IT, Nifty MidSmall Healthcare, Nifty Pharma were top gainers with advancing up to 0.59 per cent.

Meanwhile, metal, consumer durables and chemicals also traded marginally higher.

On the other hand, Nifty Financial Services ex-Bank, Nifty FMCG slipped up to 0.38 per cent.

Market experts said the RBI’s calibrated tightening stance could put pressure on equity valuations as higher interest rates make fixed-income investments relatively more attractive.

They also expect investor preference to shift marginally towards relatively interest-inelastic sectors such as pharmaceuticals.

Experts noted that growth stocks have continued to attract investor interest despite high valuations, while value stocks have remained subdued.

“Sustained selling by foreign investors in large-cap stocks, coupled with the US 10-year Treasury yield staying above 5.3 per cent, could keep large-cap stocks under pressure,” they added.

“Yesterday’s multiple attacks at 22574 calls for an extended period of consolidation, before setting a direction. Though considerably weakened, the 23100-220 view is still in play, with downside marker at 22439,” according to them.

Experts added that a sustained reversal in the market trend would require foreign investors to turn buyers, while value stocks could offer opportunities over the longer term.

In addition, foreign institutional investors remained net sellers on Wednesday and offloaded equities worth more than Rs 6,121 crore.

While domestic institutional investors provided some support and purchased equities of around Rs 4,596 crore.

Moreover, market sentiment remained cautious amid concerns over elevated US Treasury yields and oil prices, while Asian markets traded on a cautious note following a softer session on Wall Street.

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Meta unveils new AI tools to combat child sexual exploitation online

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New Delhi, Oct 7: Meta on Wednesday announced a series of new AI-powered measures aimed at strengthening its fight against child sexual exploitation on Facebook and Instagram, as the company revealed it took action against 5.3 million pieces of child sexual exploitation content in India during the first six months of 2026.

The social media giant said more than 98 per cent of the violative content removed in India between January and June this year was proactively detected by its systems before being reported by users.

“Between January to June 2026, we actioned 5.3 million pieces of child sexual exploitation content on Facebook and Instagram in India, with over 98 per cent found and proactively addressed before anyone reported it,” the tech giant said.

Globally, Meta said it actioned 33.2 million pieces of child sexual exploitation content across Facebook and Instagram during the same period, with over 97 per cent identified proactively.

“Globally between January to June 2026, we actioned 33.2 million pieces of child sexual exploitation content from Facebook and Instagram, over 97 per cent found and proactively addressed before anyone reported it,” it added.

According to the company, online predators are increasingly using sophisticated tactics to evade detection, including advertisements that appear harmless but covertly direct users to illegal content hosted outside Meta’s platforms.

In response, the company has upgraded its ad review systems and deployed additional artificial intelligence tools to identify such activity more effectively.

Meta said the new safeguards include large language model (LLM)-based detection systems designed to identify “signposting” content that may appear benign but is suspected of directing users to child sexual exploitation material or related harmful activities.

The company has also enhanced its ability to assess the destination of advertisements, enabling it to block links leading to violative content and take action against the accounts responsible.

“Once a link is blocked, we search for and then delete other content – such as ads, posts or comments – that contain the link. We take steps to prevent people from posting content containing a blocked link on Facebook, Instagram and Threads, and ads containing blocked links would be rejected at upload,” Meta said in its official statement.

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