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MPC members showed urgency to contain inflation: Emkay Global

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The unanimous 50bps hike in the repo rate recently by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and a sharp upward revision in the inflation forecast, depicted continued urgency on policy catch-up amid the MPC’s reassessment of the inflation outlook, said Emkay Global Financial Services in a report.

The minutes also indicated the rate trajectory ahead.

The RBI released the minutes of the MPC meeting held during June 6-8, 2022 on Wednesday.

According to Emkay Global, the broadening of inflation pressures and generalisation and persistence of inflation made most members uncomfortable, even though some reckoned the largely imported nature of the current inflation.

“Most members believed that, amid fears of second-round effects on estimates, an early hike was necessary to avoid any unintended economic shocks,” Emkay Global said.

The minutes also gave cues on the rate trajectory ahead. While all reckoned rates needed to go up further, there was still divergence on the possible terminal rate, the report said.

Prof Jayant Varma believed that the RBI MPC, like most leading central banks, should also provide a dot plot to signal its future rate projections, which will help in anchoring long-term bond markets and inflation expectations.

Dr Michael Debabrata Patra argued that the repo rate needs to be increased to at least as high as the one-year-ahead inflation forecast suggests (near zero), knowing that monetary policy works with lags.

According to Dr Ashima Goyal, the current stage of recovery, the one-year ahead real rate must not fall below -1 per cent, Emkay Global said.

Some members see a need for demand compression but recommend moving with caution

Emkay Global said there were signs of caution in terms of aggressive policy tightening. Dr. Patra suggested that current inflation is predominantly a supply-side issue, and as a consequence, for monetary policy, rather than materially compressing demand, managing expectations is the key.

Dr Goyal argued that, unlike the West, India’s inflation is yet neither demand-driven nor seeing a wage-price spiral. Labour markets are not tight and wage increases are not universal yet across rural and urban sectors.

Meanwhile, the credit offtake is still modest – broad money growth at 8.8 per cent was much lower than nominal income growth.

Dr Ranjan suggested continued monetary-fiscal coordination to anchor inflation expectations while RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das stated that the second-round effect of adverse supply shocks is what they are targeting.

According to Emkay Global, the triple whammy of commodity price shocks, supply-chain shocks and resilient growth has shifted the reaction function in favor of inflation containment.

The inflation prints of the next two quarters are likely to exceed seven per cent, which could pressure the RBI into acting sooner rather than later.

FY23 could, thus, see rates go up further by 75bps plus, with the RBI now showing its intent to keep real rates neutral or higher to quickly reach pre-Covid levels, it said.

As per Emkay Global, a maximum tightening of the policy rate by six per cent by FY23, of which liquidity tightening to two per cent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) is tantamount to another estimated 25bps effective rate hike.

However, the front-loaded rate hike cycle does not imply a lengthy tightening cycle, and once they reach the supposed neutral pre-Covid monetary conditions, the bar for further tightening may go higher incrementally amid increasing growth inflation trade-offs, Emkay Global said.

Business

Why The Indian Stock Market Struggled: Inflation, FPI Outflows, And Currency Pressure; Everything You Need To Know

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The Indian stock market on Wednesday (November 13) wrapped the another challenging day, marking the fifth consecutive session of losses.

The Sensex and Nifty, the two benchmark indices, both ended lower amid concerns over inflation and a broad selloff in metal stocks.

Market Snapshot

By the close of the trading session, Sensex was down by 984.23 points, or 1.25 per cent, ending at 77,690.95. Nifty 50 followed suit, shedding 324.40 points, or 1.36 per cent, to settle at 23,559.05.

The day saw a sea of red on both the Sensex and Nifty, with the majority of stocks ending lower. Among the few gainers were NTPC, Tata Motors, and Infosys, which saw minor upticks on BSE.

However, the broader market was dominated by heavy losses, especially in stocks such as JSW Steel, State Bank of India (SBI), Adani Ports, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), and Tata Steel, all of which posted declines.

Reasons behind the sharp decline

One of the major factor contributing to the market’s downward trajectory is the growing concern related to inflation.

As per the data which released by the Ministry of statistics and Programme Implementation regarding the India’ retail inflation, it showed that for the month of October, it surged to 6.21 per cent, breaching the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) upper tolerance limit of 6 per cent for the first time in over a year. The primary factors that contributed to surge include rise food prices, driven by the extended monsoon season and crop damage.

Adding to the pressure is the continued outflow of foreign portfolio investments (FPIs). On November 12, FPIs sold shares worth Rs 364.35 crore, bringing the total outflows for November to Rs 23,911 crore

The Indian rupee also struggled on November 13, weakening by 1 paisa to close at 84.38 against the US dollar.

The rise of the US dollar, which surged 1.8 per cent in November, has been exacerbated by the US presidential election result and higher bond yields. The US 10-year bond yield spiked to 4.42 per cent, further diverting capital away from emerging markets like India.

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Business

Trump Victory Revives The Crypto Mania; Bitcoin Touches 81,000 Mark, Other Virtual Currencies Also Surge

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The world of cryptocurrency, which was enduring its long-drawn-out winter since the end of the pandemic, appears all set to come out of its ‘haitus’.

And this new surge has been powered by the recent triumph of Donald Trump at the 2024 US election. The president-elect, Donald Trump, who once thought that crypto was a ‘scam’, has come a long way. Donald Trump, by all means, is the most crypto-friendly president that the US has had so far.

Bitcoin

As a result of this newborn optimism, major names in the crypto business. The biggest of them all, Bitcoin, saw the biggest jump. Bitcoin scaled the USD 80,000 mark for the first time.

In the past 5 days, the cryptocurrency has surged in value by 7.76 per cent or USD 5,865.47, taking the overall value to 81,456.88 for one USD. In the Indian context, one Bitcoin is worth Rs 68,72,585.50.

Ethereum

And it is not just Bitcoin that has seen its value gallop. The second biggest name in the crypto world, Ethereum has observed a rise in its price since Trump’s victory. 8.71

In fact, this crypto has seen an even bigger jump of 17.00 per cent or USD 462.66, in the past 5 days, taking the overall value to USD 3,184.54.

Ripple

Another cryptocoin, Ripple, has also seen its prices rise. In the past 5 days alone, the value of this digital currency has jumped to USD 0.59.

This came to pass after an 8.71 per cent USD 0.05 rise in its value.

Dogecoin

The meme coin or a currency that was started as a joke, Dogecoin or ‘Dog Coin’ also saw a gargantuan rise in its prices. Just in the past 5 days, Dogecoin jumped in value by a substantial 49.76 per cent.

The price increased by USD 8.24, taking the overall value to USD 24.80. It is to be noted that Tesla boss Elon Musk, who is a close ally of Donald Trump, is a major proponent of this cryptocurrency.

One of the controversial policies that Trump has advocated throughout his campaign is weakening the US Dollar and loosening any scope of scrutiny on cryptocurrency. In fact, it is even reported that he would ‘fire’ the Security Exchange Commission chair, Gary Gensler. Gensler has been at the forefront of attempts to regulate cryptos.

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India Set To Lead The World In 6G, Says Telecom Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia

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In a bold declaration at the inaugural address of the Indian Mobile Congress 2024 (IMC) on Tuesday, Union Telecom Minister Jyotiraditya M. Scindia has said that India will lead the world in the adoption of 6G.

In his address at the event, Scindia emphasized that India is now prepared to lead the world in the development of 6G technology.

India’s Technological Rise: From Following to Leading

“It is our belief and commitment that India, which followed the world in 4G and marched with it in 5G, will lead the world in 6G,” Scindia stated.

The minister highlighted India’s remarkable achievements in the telecommunications sector over the last ten years, the country has become a global leader in innovation and technology.

“It’s a fundamental change in approach towards technology development,” he said, attributing this transformation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership.

Telecom Sector Growth Under PM Modi’s Leadership

“Prime Minister who has always put people at the heart of progress Sabka Sath, Sabka Vikas Sabka Vishvas aur Sabka Prayas combined with his second motto, One Earth, One Family and One Future. It is combination of these two mottos that leads India under PM Narendra Modi leadership one of the leading sectors in the committee of Nations,” Scindia said.

Scindia underscored government’s initiatives to bridge the digital divide, particularly through the BharatNet program, the world’s largest rural broadband connectivity initiative to connect every panchayat of the nation. Over the past three years, the government has invested more than USD 10 billion and laid 7 lakh kilometres of fiber across rural India.

Digital Payments and UPI: Pillars of India’s Digital Economy

He cited staggering growth in mobile and broadband connectivity, with mobile connections rising from 94 million to 1.16 billion, and broadband users growing from 60 million to 924 million in just a decade. India’s optical fibre cable (OFC) networks has expanded from 11 million kilometers to 41 million kilometres over the last ten years, he added.

The minister further said that this growth is accompanied by the success of India’s digital payment systems, the 4G stack, and the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), which serve as pillars of India’s digital economy are expected to contribute significantly to the global digital infrastructure.

Scindia further noted that the government’s efforts to ensure that policy frameworks keep pace with the rapidly evolving digital landscape. “The recent changes to the Telecommunications act 2023 is a case in point. It has been drawing light upon hither to undressed areas such as a high potential sector of satellite communications, addressing the challenges of the digital leader. The most important being cyber security. The telecom sector much like other growth critical sectors in India is aggressive, is ambitioushe said.

“The telecom sector much like other growth critical sectors in India is aggressive, is ambitious and its outlook in our Journey from Amritkal to Shatabdikal is to lead the world,” Scindia said. By mid-next year, India will have achieved 100 per cent saturation of 4G across the entire country, covering even the most remote villages, the minister said.

He emphasised PM Modi’s vision of India as a first mover in 6G technology, underscoring the nation’s resolve to lead the world in future telecom innovations.

“The attitude put forward by the prime minister of not just embracing, but raising ourselves to becoming the first mover in the 6G technology,” he added.

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