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MPC members showed urgency to contain inflation: Emkay Global

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The unanimous 50bps hike in the repo rate recently by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and a sharp upward revision in the inflation forecast, depicted continued urgency on policy catch-up amid the MPC’s reassessment of the inflation outlook, said Emkay Global Financial Services in a report.

The minutes also indicated the rate trajectory ahead.

The RBI released the minutes of the MPC meeting held during June 6-8, 2022 on Wednesday.

According to Emkay Global, the broadening of inflation pressures and generalisation and persistence of inflation made most members uncomfortable, even though some reckoned the largely imported nature of the current inflation.

“Most members believed that, amid fears of second-round effects on estimates, an early hike was necessary to avoid any unintended economic shocks,” Emkay Global said.

The minutes also gave cues on the rate trajectory ahead. While all reckoned rates needed to go up further, there was still divergence on the possible terminal rate, the report said.

Prof Jayant Varma believed that the RBI MPC, like most leading central banks, should also provide a dot plot to signal its future rate projections, which will help in anchoring long-term bond markets and inflation expectations.

Dr Michael Debabrata Patra argued that the repo rate needs to be increased to at least as high as the one-year-ahead inflation forecast suggests (near zero), knowing that monetary policy works with lags.

According to Dr Ashima Goyal, the current stage of recovery, the one-year ahead real rate must not fall below -1 per cent, Emkay Global said.

Some members see a need for demand compression but recommend moving with caution

Emkay Global said there were signs of caution in terms of aggressive policy tightening. Dr. Patra suggested that current inflation is predominantly a supply-side issue, and as a consequence, for monetary policy, rather than materially compressing demand, managing expectations is the key.

Dr Goyal argued that, unlike the West, India’s inflation is yet neither demand-driven nor seeing a wage-price spiral. Labour markets are not tight and wage increases are not universal yet across rural and urban sectors.

Meanwhile, the credit offtake is still modest – broad money growth at 8.8 per cent was much lower than nominal income growth.

Dr Ranjan suggested continued monetary-fiscal coordination to anchor inflation expectations while RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das stated that the second-round effect of adverse supply shocks is what they are targeting.

According to Emkay Global, the triple whammy of commodity price shocks, supply-chain shocks and resilient growth has shifted the reaction function in favor of inflation containment.

The inflation prints of the next two quarters are likely to exceed seven per cent, which could pressure the RBI into acting sooner rather than later.

FY23 could, thus, see rates go up further by 75bps plus, with the RBI now showing its intent to keep real rates neutral or higher to quickly reach pre-Covid levels, it said.

As per Emkay Global, a maximum tightening of the policy rate by six per cent by FY23, of which liquidity tightening to two per cent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) is tantamount to another estimated 25bps effective rate hike.

However, the front-loaded rate hike cycle does not imply a lengthy tightening cycle, and once they reach the supposed neutral pre-Covid monetary conditions, the bar for further tightening may go higher incrementally amid increasing growth inflation trade-offs, Emkay Global said.

Business

Iran war costs deepen split in US Congress amid scrutiny of $200 billion funding request

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Washington, March 20: Rising costs of the Iran war and its impact on global markets are deepening divisions in Congress, with Republicans and Democrats questioning the scale and purpose of a proposed funding request that could exceed $200 billion, according to multiple US media reports.

The White House is preparing to seek massive new funding for the conflict, even as scepticism grows within President Donald Trump’s own party over the lack of a clear strategy and timeline, CNN reported. Lawmakers say the administration has yet to fully explain how the money will be used or how long the US military engagement could last.

Trump signalled the request could be substantial, arguing the military needs resources to maintain strength. “We want to be in the best shape, the best shape we’ve ever been in,” he said, adding, “It’s a small price to pay to make sure that we stay tippy top.”

But that argument is facing pushback. Some Republicans have openly rejected further spending, reflecting growing unease about what several described as a potential “endless war”.

“I am a no. I have already told leadership. I am a no on any war supplemental. I am so tired of spending money over there,” Representative Lauren Boebert said, according to CNN. “I have folks in Colorado who can’t afford to live. We need America First policies right now.”

Others are demanding detailed answers before committing support. “What are we doing? We’re talking about boots on the ground. We’re talking about that kind of extended activity,” said Representative Chip Roy. “They got a whole lot more briefing and a whole lot more explaining to do on how we’re going to pay for it and what’s the mission here?”

Fiscal conservatives have also questioned whether the proposed funding could expand further. “It begs the question, how long do they plan to be there? What are the goals? Is this the first $200 billion? Does this turn into a trillion?” Representative Thomas Massie said, CNN reported.

The debate comes as the conflict intensifies in the Gulf. US and allied forces have stepped up operations around the Strait of Hormuz, deploying attack aircraft and helicopters to target Iranian naval assets and reopen critical shipping lanes, The Wall Street Journal reported.

“The A-10 Warthog is now engaged across the southern flank, targeting fast-attack watercraft in the Strait of Hormuz,” General Dan Caine said, adding that Apache helicopters “have joined the fight on the southern flank,” according to the Journal.

The escalation has already shaken global energy markets. Oil prices surged sharply as attacks on infrastructure across the region raised fears of supply disruptions, The New York Times reported.

Analysts warned the economic fallout could deepen if hostilities continue. “Energy warfare has been utilised from day one,” said Anna Jacobs, according to The Washington Post, noting that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have affected a key global supply route.

At the same time, lawmakers in both parties say they have received limited and incomplete cost assessments, adding to concerns over approving such a large sum. Some Republicans have proposed conditions, including spending offsets or audits of Pentagon finances, before backing any funding bill.

Senate leaders have indicated the path forward remains uncertain. “It remains to be seen” whether the request could pass, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said, according to CNN.

Democrats, meanwhile, remain largely opposed to approving funds under current conditions, further complicating the administration’s efforts to secure congressional backing.

The conflict has also triggered broader policy debates within the administration, including whether easing sanctions on Iranian oil could help stabilise global prices, The Washington Post reported. Officials say such steps could bring additional supply to the market, though analysts warn it could also strengthen Iran financially during the war.

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Business

LPG Crisis: How A Simple Digital DAC OTP System Is Plugging A Massive Black-Market Loophole

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India’s cooking gas distribution network has long been plagued by a quiet crisis – subsidised LPG cylinders meant for households routinely ended up in the black market, diverted by unscrupulous delivery personnel and agents. With the LPG crisis now deepening due to the US-Iran war, the government’s answer to this is deceptively simple – an OTP.

The Delivery Authentication Code (DAC) is a one-time-use code used to verify the legitimacy of home LPG cylinder delivery, ensuring the cylinder reaches the rightful customer. When a booking is made, the customer receives the code on their registered mobile number, which must be shown to the delivery person before the cylinder changes hands.

Ever since the crisis began, the government has significantly scaled up this system, with DAC coverage now reaching nearly 72 percent of deliveries, up from 53 percent earlier. The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has directed oil companies to ensure the DAC system is used in at least 80 percent of LPG deliveries, making OTP verification mandatory for the majority of cylinders.

Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) have introduced the DAC system – sent via SMS and shared with delivery personnel – to ensure verified delivery, with IVRS/SMS refill booking also implemented nationwide, providing alerts at key stages including booking, cash memo generation, and delivery.

If distributors fail to meet the DAC requirement, the system flags cylinders as still in the agency’s inventory even though they have been delivered -creating a digital paper trail that exposes irregularities and improves transparency across the supply chain.

Consumers can ensure they receive DAC codes by taking these steps:

– Link your mobile number to your LPG consumer ID via your distributor or the Indane/HP/Bharat Gas app.

– Book via IVRS by calling your provider’s helpline – the DAC is sent automatically via SMS upon booking.

– Update details online at iocl.com or your respective oil company’s portal.

– Visit your distributor with photo ID and consumer ID if SMS is not being received.

– If the OTP does not arrive, customers can show their Aadhaar card as an alternate identity verification to receive the cylinder.

With the government pushing toward an 80 percent DAC compliance target, the system represents a low-cost, high-impact fix to a problem that has cost the exchequer significantly. For millions of households, it also means the subsidised cylinder they paid for will actually reach their doorstep.

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Business

India’s power plants well stocked with coal as PSUs step up production

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New Delhi, March 19: India’s thermal power plants have adequate coal stocks of around 53.41 million tonnes which are adequate for nearly 23 days at the present rate of consumption, and further stocks are also being built up at the pitheads of coal mining companies as a proactive measure to meet any exigency amid the disruption in oil and gas supplies due to the Iran war, the Ministry of Coal said on Thursday.

The pithead coal stock at the mines of Coal India Limited (CIL), which was 106.78 million tonnes (MT) as on April 1, 2025, has grown to about 125.54 MT as on March, 18, 2026. Further, there is around 5.75 MT of coal at the mines of Singareni Collieries Company Limited (SCCL) and another 15.75 MT coal at the mines of captive/commercial mines and about 12 MT in transit and about 5.49 MT in ports and good-shed sidings, according to a statement issued by the ministry.

Coal is continuing to ensure reliable baseload power to support core industries such as steel and cement that underpin the economic growth of the country. The coal production in the country continues at a pace matching the prevailing demands of the consumer and building adequate stocks at the mine-end for maintaining adequate supplies to the consumers as per their requirements, with the continued support of Railways, the statement said.

Coal India Limited is taking adequate measures to ensure the supply of coal to all consumers, including small, medium, and other consumers. As a proactive step, CIL has planned 29 e-auctions in the month of March, offering about 23.56 MT of coal. Out of these 29 auctions, 5 auctions have already been conducted since March 12, wherein 73.1 lakh ton of coal was offered, and 31.96 lakh ton of coal has been booked, indicating adequacy of coal offered in the e-auctions, the statement said.

In addition to this, CIL has also taken necessary action to ensure coal availability to the small, medium and other consumers through the State Nominated Agencies (SNAs) route and requested the state governments to provide the additional coal requirement, which can be met in full to avoid any energy shortages. The coal offtake of the states through the SNAs is being constantly monitored by CIL to ensure that uninterrupted supplies are ensured, the statement said.

The Ministry of Coal is ensuring a performance-driven ecosystem through sustained policy facilitation, robust monitoring mechanisms, and proactive stakeholder engagement. These concerted efforts are aimed at providing reliable coal availability, enabling uninterrupted operations across critical sectors, and effectively meeting the nation’s growing energy demands, the statement added.

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