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Market volatility to continue with some initial surge in markets

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The week began with a bang with new closing highs recorded on both the BSESENSEX and NIFTY on the very first trading day of the week. Alas! The good news ended there and markets fell on each of the remaining four days to end with losses for the week. BSESENSEX lost 1,282.69 points or 2.14 per cent to close at 58,765.78 points while NIFTY lost 321.15 points or 1.80 per cent to close at 17,532.05 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 1.65 per cent, 1.38 per cent and 1.19 per cent, respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 0.12 per cent, while BSESMALLCAP gained 0.69 per cent. The closing high recorded during the week was 60,077.88 made on September 27 while the intraday high made was in the previous week at, 60,412.32 points, also made the same day. On NIFTY, the closing high made on the same day was 17,855.10 points while the intra-day high made was on the previous September 24at 17,947.65 points.

The Indian Rupee lost 42 paisa or 0.57 per cent to close at Rs 74.12 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones lost 471.54 points or 1.36 per cent to close at 34,326.46 points. A large part of the losses was reversed on Friday when Dow Jones gained 482 points. Had that not happened, loses would have been close to 950 points.

September series expired on the last trading day of the month at 17,618.15 points, a gain of 981.25 points or 5.90 per cent for the month. Markets were under pressure this week and surrendered quite a bit and gave in to the bears.

The opening day of October series began on a weak note and continued with the prevailing weakness of the previous three days. NIFTY on the first day of the series lost 86.10 points and began on a weak note. The last time we saw such a trend was in the May 21 series which began on a weak note, losing 263 points on the opening day, April 30. The May series ended with gains of 442.95 points or 2.97 per cent. Using this as empirical evidence would suggest that though we began the first day of a new series on a weak note, we would in all probability end with gains for the series.

During the week we saw, bids for Air India being opened, and in all probability, it appears that the wheel has come a full circle. Air India which was nationalised way back in 1952-53, It is likely to be again owned and operated by the house of Tatas. While full details of the same are yet awaited, Tatas with their interest in newly acquired Air India which includes Air India, erstwhile Alliance Air, Air India Express and Indian Airlines along with their existing JV’s with Vistara and Air Asia would become a key and dominant player in aviation in India going forward.

In primary market news, the issue from Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited closed for subscription and was subscribed 5.25 times. QIB portion was subscribed 10.36 times, HNI portion 4.39 times, Retail portion was subscribed 3.24 times and Shareholder preferential quota was subscribed 1.68 times. There were 15.66 lac applications.

On the side-lines of this issue, Standard Life sold 1.06 cr shares of HDFC AMC while this issue was on and garnered close to Rs 3,000 cr. The size of their sale was more than the amount raised by Aditya Birla AMC through their issue.

Shares of Paras Defence and Space Technologies Limited which is the highest response receiving issue since 2007, debuted on the bourses on Friday and had a lift-off on day one. Shares which were issued at Rs 175 closed at the upper circuit of Rs 498.75 on BSE, a gain of Rs 323.75 or 185 per cent. It’s a great start and the last time one saw anything near this kind of gains was in the case of IRCTC in October 2019.

Reserve Bank of India meets for its bi-monthly monetary policy review between Wednesday to Friday with the announcement on Friday. There maybe a minor hardening of repo rates

to reduce the excess liquidity in the system, but the expectation is not necessarily a consensus view. Barring this, the consensus is rates are expected to remain status-quo.

Calendar year 2021 has been the year of the primary markets but with one major difference. This year 75 per cent of the funds raised or more have been in the form of divestment by mainly the PE players and some portion of this by promoters. Growth capital or capital infusion into the company has been less than a fourth of the funds raised. PE investors invest money into a company through SPV’s where the name of the entity is different in each company where they invest and it is difficult for an investor to understand who is behind the company. In such a scenario like in the case of merchant bankers who give a track record of three years of their performance in new issues, a similar exercise should be mandated by SEBI for PE investors. This will help in a big way to make investors smarter and benefit in their understanding of value and valuations of a company. This will also give an idea in which PE Investor’s divestment is something left on the table.

On the covid-19 front, the world saw 23,54,35,786 patients, 48,11868 deaths and 21,22,44,299 patients who had recovered. In India we saw 3,38,13,903 patients, 4,48,846 deaths and 3,30,94,529 patients who had recovered. Compared to the previous week, the world saw 21,42,991 new patients, 54,291 deaths and 33,36,047 patients who had recovered. In India we saw 1,61,158 new patients, 1,898 deaths and 1,92,178 patients who had recovered. In terms of vaccinations, 88.94 cr vaccinations have been administered. This number includes the first and second vaccination combined.

Coming to markets in the week ahead, there should be some upward movement in the early part of the week on the back of sharp correction witnessed during the last week. This is also on account of the weakness in global markets led by Dow and the disturbing news coming from China on many fronts. The sharp rally witnessed on Dow on Friday should influence market opening on Monday but may not be enough for the rest of the week.

Considering the vulnerability and extreme volatility witnessed last week, it makes sense to continue the strategy of buy on sharp dips and sell on strong rallies. Keep some amount of money in cash as opportunities are available as was the case last week. Secondly with results reporting season beginning there would be higher stock specific action visible from next week onwards. On the back of results from the leaders, one would get a fair idea of how the sector is behaving. Use this analysis to play the markets.

Trade cautiously and curb temptation.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)

Business

Sensex, Nifty trade muted in early deals amid mixed global cues

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Mumbai, May 27: Domestic equity markets traded on a muted note in early deals on Wednesday amid mixed global cues and a decline in crude oil prices.

Sensex was trading at 76,050, up 40 points or 0.05 per cent in the morning session, while Nifty rose 20 points or 0.08 per cent to 23,932. Earlier, the benchmark indices opened at 75,939.86 and 23,880.35, respectively.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty Metal emerged as the top gainer, climbing 1.59 per cent, followed by Nifty Cement, which advanced 0.83 per cent. Nifty Media, Realty and Consumer Durables also traded higher, rising up to 0.67 per cent.

On the other hand, Nifty Oil & Gas was the top loser, falling 0.66 per cent. While private banks, financial services and IT indices also traded in the red, declining up to 0.33 per cent.

Among Nifty stocks, selling pressure was visible in select heavyweight counters, with Coal India dropping over 4 per cent and ONGC slipping nearly 3 per cent. HDFC Bank, Infosys and Wipro also remained under pressure.

Meanwhile, the volatility index India VIX gained 0.68 per cent to trade around 16.

According to analysts, the near-term market tone remains cautious but stable, as recent profit booking at higher levels indicates some consolidation after the sharp recovery phase.

“Despite intermittent weakness, controlled volatility and balanced market breadth suggest that broader sentiment has not deteriorated significantly,” they added.

Meanwhile, Iran on Tuesday accused the United States of violating the ceasefire by carrying out strikes near the disputed Strait of Hormuz, while Washington maintained that the attacks were defensive in nature.

In the commodity market, crude oil prices declined, with international benchmark Brent crude falling 1.73 per cent to $97.85 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped over 2 per cent to $91.87 per barrel.

In Asia, markets traded mixed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined nearly 1 per cent, while Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI rose up to almost 5 per cent.

Overnight in the US, Wall Street ended higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.61 per cent and the Nasdaq closing 1.19 per cent higher.

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Business

Indian equity markets trade flat after fresh US strikes in Iran

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Mumbai, May 26: Indian equity markets traded flat in morning trade on Tuesday after fresh US strikes in southern Iran targeting boats attempting to lay mines and missile launch sites.

In early trade, Sensex was at 76,339.29, down 150 points or 0.20 per cent, while Nifty slipped 45 points or 0.19 per cent to 23,986.40. Earlier in the day, the benchmark indices opened at 76,224.14 and 24,004.10, respectively.

Among sectoral indices, IT, chemicals, media, PSU banks and metal stocks traded in positive territory.

Nifty IT rose 0.61 per cent, while Nifty Chemicals gained 0.58 per cent and Nifty Media advanced 0.54 per cent.

On the downside, consumer durables, healthcare, cement and realty indices were under pressure. Nifty Consumer Durables emerged as the top sectoral loser, falling 0.57 per cent, while Nifty Healthcare, Nifty Cement and Nifty Realty declined up to 0.3 per cent.

From the Nifty basket, InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) declined over 1 per cent, emerging as one of the top laggards on the benchmark indices. Other notable losers included SBI Life Insurance Company, Max Healthcare Institute, Titan Company, Bharti Airtel, Eternal Ltd and Trent, which fell up to 1 per cent.

In the broader market, small-cap and mid-cap indices outperformed. Nifty Smallcap 100 climbed 0.59 per cent, while Nifty Midcap 150 gained 0.13 per cent.

Meanwhile, the volatility tracker India VIX slipped 1.43 per cent.

Market experts said that despite ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the West Asia conflict, there are no indications of an immediate resolution.

They noted that the recent US “self-defence strikes” in southern Iran have temporarily dampened sentiment, although markets are not viewing the development as the beginning of another phase of military escalation.

According to experts, investor risk appetite remains strong, with markets rallying whenever there are signs of easing tensions and a decline in crude oil prices.

“The sharp rally in the previous session reflected optimism about the resilience of the domestic economy,” they added.

However, experts believe that a resolution of the conflict and a further decline in crude oil prices could help ease macroeconomic pressures facing the economy.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices rose, with international benchmark Brent crude gaining 1.17 per cent to $98.39 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed more than 3 per cent to $93.90 per barrel.

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Business

CNG Prices Hiked Again By ₹2: Have Rates Increased In Mumbai Too? Find Out Here

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Mumbai: CNG consumers have received temporary relief as Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) prices in the city have not been increased despite another fuel hike announced in Delhi and the NCR on Tuesday.

While Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL) raised CNG prices in Delhi by Rs 2 per kg, taking rates to Rs 83.09 per kg from May 26, Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) has kept CNG prices unchanged across Mumbai and the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR).

This means CNG in Mumbai continues to remain priced at Rs 84 per kg, following the earlier hike implemented by MGL earlier this month. The latest Delhi revision marks the fourth CNG price increase in less than two weeks amid rising global energy prices and pressure on domestic fuel retailers.

Although there has been no fresh hike in Mumbai today, auto-rickshaw unions in the city have already renewed their demand for a fare revision after the previous Rs 2 per kg increase announced by MGL on May 14.

Mumbai’s auto unions have argued that rising fuel costs and inflation have increased operating expenses for drivers. Union representatives recently met transport department officials and submitted revised fare calculations based on recommendations of the B Khatua Committee.

At present, the minimum auto-rickshaw fare in Mumbai stands at Rs 26, while passengers are charged Rs 17.14 per kilometre after the base fare. According to union calculations, the per-kilometre fare should now increase to Rs 18.17.

“The expenses on fuel have increased substantially for auto-rickshaw drivers. Inflation and higher Consumer Price Index levels have also affected daily running costs,” Mumbai Rickshawmen’s Union General Secretary Thampi Kurien had said while demanding a fare hike.

The latest developments come at a time when petrol and diesel prices have witnessed repeated hikes across the country over the past two weeks, increasing concerns over transportation costs and inflationary pressure in Mumbai and other metro cities.

Despite today’s relief for Mumbai commuters, transport operators and auto unions are closely monitoring fuel pricing trends amid fears that further increases in global crude oil and gas prices could eventually impact CNG rates in the city as well.

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