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Market volatility to continue with some initial surge in markets

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The week began with a bang with new closing highs recorded on both the BSESENSEX and NIFTY on the very first trading day of the week. Alas! The good news ended there and markets fell on each of the remaining four days to end with losses for the week. BSESENSEX lost 1,282.69 points or 2.14 per cent to close at 58,765.78 points while NIFTY lost 321.15 points or 1.80 per cent to close at 17,532.05 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 1.65 per cent, 1.38 per cent and 1.19 per cent, respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 0.12 per cent, while BSESMALLCAP gained 0.69 per cent. The closing high recorded during the week was 60,077.88 made on September 27 while the intraday high made was in the previous week at, 60,412.32 points, also made the same day. On NIFTY, the closing high made on the same day was 17,855.10 points while the intra-day high made was on the previous September 24at 17,947.65 points.

The Indian Rupee lost 42 paisa or 0.57 per cent to close at Rs 74.12 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones lost 471.54 points or 1.36 per cent to close at 34,326.46 points. A large part of the losses was reversed on Friday when Dow Jones gained 482 points. Had that not happened, loses would have been close to 950 points.

September series expired on the last trading day of the month at 17,618.15 points, a gain of 981.25 points or 5.90 per cent for the month. Markets were under pressure this week and surrendered quite a bit and gave in to the bears.

The opening day of October series began on a weak note and continued with the prevailing weakness of the previous three days. NIFTY on the first day of the series lost 86.10 points and began on a weak note. The last time we saw such a trend was in the May 21 series which began on a weak note, losing 263 points on the opening day, April 30. The May series ended with gains of 442.95 points or 2.97 per cent. Using this as empirical evidence would suggest that though we began the first day of a new series on a weak note, we would in all probability end with gains for the series.

During the week we saw, bids for Air India being opened, and in all probability, it appears that the wheel has come a full circle. Air India which was nationalised way back in 1952-53, It is likely to be again owned and operated by the house of Tatas. While full details of the same are yet awaited, Tatas with their interest in newly acquired Air India which includes Air India, erstwhile Alliance Air, Air India Express and Indian Airlines along with their existing JV’s with Vistara and Air Asia would become a key and dominant player in aviation in India going forward.

In primary market news, the issue from Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited closed for subscription and was subscribed 5.25 times. QIB portion was subscribed 10.36 times, HNI portion 4.39 times, Retail portion was subscribed 3.24 times and Shareholder preferential quota was subscribed 1.68 times. There were 15.66 lac applications.

On the side-lines of this issue, Standard Life sold 1.06 cr shares of HDFC AMC while this issue was on and garnered close to Rs 3,000 cr. The size of their sale was more than the amount raised by Aditya Birla AMC through their issue.

Shares of Paras Defence and Space Technologies Limited which is the highest response receiving issue since 2007, debuted on the bourses on Friday and had a lift-off on day one. Shares which were issued at Rs 175 closed at the upper circuit of Rs 498.75 on BSE, a gain of Rs 323.75 or 185 per cent. It’s a great start and the last time one saw anything near this kind of gains was in the case of IRCTC in October 2019.

Reserve Bank of India meets for its bi-monthly monetary policy review between Wednesday to Friday with the announcement on Friday. There maybe a minor hardening of repo rates

to reduce the excess liquidity in the system, but the expectation is not necessarily a consensus view. Barring this, the consensus is rates are expected to remain status-quo.

Calendar year 2021 has been the year of the primary markets but with one major difference. This year 75 per cent of the funds raised or more have been in the form of divestment by mainly the PE players and some portion of this by promoters. Growth capital or capital infusion into the company has been less than a fourth of the funds raised. PE investors invest money into a company through SPV’s where the name of the entity is different in each company where they invest and it is difficult for an investor to understand who is behind the company. In such a scenario like in the case of merchant bankers who give a track record of three years of their performance in new issues, a similar exercise should be mandated by SEBI for PE investors. This will help in a big way to make investors smarter and benefit in their understanding of value and valuations of a company. This will also give an idea in which PE Investor’s divestment is something left on the table.

On the covid-19 front, the world saw 23,54,35,786 patients, 48,11868 deaths and 21,22,44,299 patients who had recovered. In India we saw 3,38,13,903 patients, 4,48,846 deaths and 3,30,94,529 patients who had recovered. Compared to the previous week, the world saw 21,42,991 new patients, 54,291 deaths and 33,36,047 patients who had recovered. In India we saw 1,61,158 new patients, 1,898 deaths and 1,92,178 patients who had recovered. In terms of vaccinations, 88.94 cr vaccinations have been administered. This number includes the first and second vaccination combined.

Coming to markets in the week ahead, there should be some upward movement in the early part of the week on the back of sharp correction witnessed during the last week. This is also on account of the weakness in global markets led by Dow and the disturbing news coming from China on many fronts. The sharp rally witnessed on Dow on Friday should influence market opening on Monday but may not be enough for the rest of the week.

Considering the vulnerability and extreme volatility witnessed last week, it makes sense to continue the strategy of buy on sharp dips and sell on strong rallies. Keep some amount of money in cash as opportunities are available as was the case last week. Secondly with results reporting season beginning there would be higher stock specific action visible from next week onwards. On the back of results from the leaders, one would get a fair idea of how the sector is behaving. Use this analysis to play the markets.

Trade cautiously and curb temptation.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)

Business

Bioplastics can become Maharashtra’s next Rs 25,000 crore growth engine

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Mumbai, July 3: In a major push to tackle plastic pollution and position Maharashtra as a green manufacturing hub, the MahaYuti government has approved the Maharashtra Bioplastics Policy 2026, aimed at promoting bioplastics manufacturing through a comprehensive package of incentives and dedicated funding.

The policy, which will remain in force from 2026 to 2031, seeks to transform Maharashtra into a national hub for bioplastics manufacturing, research, innovation and exports. The government expects the initiative to attract investments worth Rs 25,000 crore, create 1.31 lakh direct and indirect jobs, and generate an estimated Rs 30,039 crore in revenue.

The policy also targets the creation of 2 lakh tonnes per annum (TPA) of PLA and biopolymer production capacity, reducing the state’s dependence on imported PLA by 50 per cent

Additionally, Maharashtra aims to replace 30 per cent of single-use plastics in selected sectors with compostable alternatives, achieve $1 billion in exports, and integrate 1 lakh farmers into the bioplastics value chain.

The state Cabinet has approved a total outlay of Rs 10,892 crore, including Rs 782 crore during the first five years and Rs 10,110 crore over the subsequent 20 years. A provision of Rs 50 crore has been made for 2026-27 under the Package Scheme of Incentives.

Government sources said rising concerns over conventional plastic waste, microplastics, marine pollution and greenhouse gas emissions have necessitated policy intervention to promote bio-based and biodegradable alternatives. While the global bioplastics market is expanding rapidly, India currently accounts for just 0.46 per cent of global output. It remains heavily dependent on imports of key biopolymers such as Polylactic Acid (PLA).

Maharashtra enjoys several competitive advantages, including its leadership in sugarcane, sugar and ethanol production, which provides abundant feedstock such as corn, bagasse and molasses. Coupled with a strong chemicals industry, premier research institutions and logistics infrastructure anchored by the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority (JNPA), the state is well positioned to develop a robust bioplastics ecosystem. The urgency of the shift is underscored by the generation of nearly 3.96 lakh tonnes of plastic waste in the state during 2022-23.

The policy covers the entire value chain, from raw material processing and production of PLA, PHA, PBS and other biopolymers to compounding, end-product manufacturing, testing facilities, composting and certification services. All eligible units will be required to obtain BIS/ISO 17088 certification or equivalent standards recognised by the Central Pollution Control Board.

Key focus areas include standards and certification, cluster-based industrial parks, common facility centres, research and centres of excellence, skill development, support for MSMEs and startups, increased participation of women and rural youth, and promotion of foreign investment and exports. The government also plans to establish two Centres of Excellence to foster innovation and technology development. Only Greenfield (new) investments and dedicated Brownfield expansions for bioplastics will be eligible.

To attract large-scale investments, Maharashtra will offer a tiered incentive framework, including special benefits for the first two anchor projects involving investments of Rs 3,000 crore or more. These projects will be eligible for capital subsidies of up to 30 per cent of fixed capital investment over 10 years, 100 per cent SGST reimbursement for 12 years, full electricity duty waivers and stamp duty exemptions, among other incentives.

Additional benefits include export incentives, reimbursement of employers’ provident fund contributions, and support for adoption of green technologies. Similar incentives will be available to the first 10 eligible large, mega and MSME units. Standalone R&D facilities will receive financial assistance of up to 50 per cent, subject to a ceiling of Rs 25 lakh.

The policy also provides an additional “green incentive” for units adopting zero liquid discharge systems, renewable energy and circular economy practices, reinforcing Maharashtra’s ambition to emerge as a leading sustainable manufacturing destination.

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Business

Adani Group emerges as investor magnet after Rs 38,000 crore demand for AEL QIP offering

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Ahmedabad, July 3: Global institutions and India’s largest mutual funds have backed multiple Adani Group companies, marking a sharp turnaround in investor sentiment.

Adani Group has emerged as one of the biggest draws for institutional investors over the past year, attracting around Rs 40,000 crore of fresh equity into its flagship company alone while also seeing marquee global and domestic investors increase their exposure across several listed entities.

Adani Enterprises Ltd (AEL) this week upsized its qualified institutional placement (QIP) to Rs 15,000 crore after receiving bids worth about Rs 38,000 crore, or 3.8 times the base issue size. The fundraising comes less than a year after the company’s Rs 25,000 crore rights issue, taking its total equity capital raised over the past year to about Rs 40,000 crore.

The latest offering attracted some of the world’s largest institutional investors, including Capital Group, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Blackstone, and Nomura. Domestic participation was equally broad-based, with HDFC Mutual Fund, ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, Kotak Mutual Fund, Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund, SBI Mutual Fund and Tata Mutual Fund among the investors.

People familiar with the transaction said the order book was fully covered before the issue formally opened, with bankers describing investors as “clamouring for allocations.” The company launched the QIP with a base size of Rs 10,000 crore before increasing it to Rs 15,000 crore on the back of strong demand.

The fundraising is the latest sign of a sharp shift in investor sentiment toward the Adani Group. After a period when Adani stocks were among the least preferred by several institutional investors, they have become some of the most sought-after names among both global funds and domestic asset managers.

Over the past year, leading institutional investors have participated in fundraisings and secondary transactions across companies including Adani Power, Adani Ports & SEZ, Adani Energy Solutions and Adani Green Energy, alongside Adani Enterprises. The lineup of investors has consistently featured some of the world’s largest asset managers and nearly every major domestic mutual fund, reflecting growing conviction in the group’s long-term investment pipeline.

The latest demand also comes despite a US federal judge pausing the formal dismissal of criminal charges against the Adani Group Chairman Gautam Adani and directing the Department of Justice to justify its decision to withdraw the case. The strong institutional participation suggests investors have remained focused on the group’s operating businesses, capital allocation, and growth prospects.

Adani Enterprises, the group’s flagship incubator, is expanding businesses spanning airports, AI and data centres, solar and wind equipment manufacturing, roads, PVC, metals and mining. A day before the QIP, the company announced an $11.5 billion investment with IHC to establish India’s largest aluminium manufacturing project, marking the biggest foreign direct investment announced in India’s metals and mining sector.

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Sensex, Nifty open nearly 1 pc higher; IT, metal stocks drive rally

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Mumbai, July 3: Indian equity markets opened higher on Friday amid mixed global cues, with benchmark indices rising nearly 1 per cent each as buying was led by IT, metal, pharma and chemical stocks.

Sensex began session at 78,152.34, up 650 points or 0.84 per cent, while Nifty opened around 200 points or 0.83 per cent higher at 24,375.65.

Sector-wise, Nifty IT surged nearly 2 per cent, while Nifty Metal gained 1.66 per cent. Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom, Chemicals and Pharma indices advanced over 1 per cent, 0.82 per cent and 0.72 per cent, respectively.

In contrast, the Nifty PSU Bank index declined 0.87 per cent.

Among Nifty 50 constituents, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV), NTPC, SBI and Axis Bank were the top losers.

The broader market remained firm, with Nifty Smallcap 50 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices rising 0.48 per cent and 0.46 per cent, respectively. Nifty 100 gained 0.46 per cent, while Nifty 500 advanced 0.41 per cent.

India VIX — the volatility index — fell 1.62 per cent to 12.09.

According to market experts, the near-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic.

For the Nifty, sustained strength above the 24,000 mark keeps the broader trend positive, with immediate resistance seen at 24,300, followed by 24,450, they said.

On the downside, 24,050 remains a key support level, while a breach could trigger a corrective move towards 23,900.

They added that investors should remain watchful of the ongoing global technology sell-off, as renewed weakness in semiconductor stocks could prompt profit booking after the recent sharp rally in domestic IT names.

International oil benchmark Brent crude rose 0.77 per cent to $72.36 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.68 per cent but remained below $70 per barrel.

In Asian markets, shares traded largely higher, with the Nikkei, Hang Seng and KOSPI rising up to 3 per cent.

Wall Street ended lower overnight amid selling in technology shares. The Nasdaq declined 0.80 per cent, while the S&P 500 closed flat.

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