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Market volatility to continue with some initial surge in markets

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The week began with a bang with new closing highs recorded on both the BSESENSEX and NIFTY on the very first trading day of the week. Alas! The good news ended there and markets fell on each of the remaining four days to end with losses for the week. BSESENSEX lost 1,282.69 points or 2.14 per cent to close at 58,765.78 points while NIFTY lost 321.15 points or 1.80 per cent to close at 17,532.05 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 1.65 per cent, 1.38 per cent and 1.19 per cent, respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 0.12 per cent, while BSESMALLCAP gained 0.69 per cent. The closing high recorded during the week was 60,077.88 made on September 27 while the intraday high made was in the previous week at, 60,412.32 points, also made the same day. On NIFTY, the closing high made on the same day was 17,855.10 points while the intra-day high made was on the previous September 24at 17,947.65 points.

The Indian Rupee lost 42 paisa or 0.57 per cent to close at Rs 74.12 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones lost 471.54 points or 1.36 per cent to close at 34,326.46 points. A large part of the losses was reversed on Friday when Dow Jones gained 482 points. Had that not happened, loses would have been close to 950 points.

September series expired on the last trading day of the month at 17,618.15 points, a gain of 981.25 points or 5.90 per cent for the month. Markets were under pressure this week and surrendered quite a bit and gave in to the bears.

The opening day of October series began on a weak note and continued with the prevailing weakness of the previous three days. NIFTY on the first day of the series lost 86.10 points and began on a weak note. The last time we saw such a trend was in the May 21 series which began on a weak note, losing 263 points on the opening day, April 30. The May series ended with gains of 442.95 points or 2.97 per cent. Using this as empirical evidence would suggest that though we began the first day of a new series on a weak note, we would in all probability end with gains for the series.

During the week we saw, bids for Air India being opened, and in all probability, it appears that the wheel has come a full circle. Air India which was nationalised way back in 1952-53, It is likely to be again owned and operated by the house of Tatas. While full details of the same are yet awaited, Tatas with their interest in newly acquired Air India which includes Air India, erstwhile Alliance Air, Air India Express and Indian Airlines along with their existing JV’s with Vistara and Air Asia would become a key and dominant player in aviation in India going forward.

In primary market news, the issue from Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited closed for subscription and was subscribed 5.25 times. QIB portion was subscribed 10.36 times, HNI portion 4.39 times, Retail portion was subscribed 3.24 times and Shareholder preferential quota was subscribed 1.68 times. There were 15.66 lac applications.

On the side-lines of this issue, Standard Life sold 1.06 cr shares of HDFC AMC while this issue was on and garnered close to Rs 3,000 cr. The size of their sale was more than the amount raised by Aditya Birla AMC through their issue.

Shares of Paras Defence and Space Technologies Limited which is the highest response receiving issue since 2007, debuted on the bourses on Friday and had a lift-off on day one. Shares which were issued at Rs 175 closed at the upper circuit of Rs 498.75 on BSE, a gain of Rs 323.75 or 185 per cent. It’s a great start and the last time one saw anything near this kind of gains was in the case of IRCTC in October 2019.

Reserve Bank of India meets for its bi-monthly monetary policy review between Wednesday to Friday with the announcement on Friday. There maybe a minor hardening of repo rates

to reduce the excess liquidity in the system, but the expectation is not necessarily a consensus view. Barring this, the consensus is rates are expected to remain status-quo.

Calendar year 2021 has been the year of the primary markets but with one major difference. This year 75 per cent of the funds raised or more have been in the form of divestment by mainly the PE players and some portion of this by promoters. Growth capital or capital infusion into the company has been less than a fourth of the funds raised. PE investors invest money into a company through SPV’s where the name of the entity is different in each company where they invest and it is difficult for an investor to understand who is behind the company. In such a scenario like in the case of merchant bankers who give a track record of three years of their performance in new issues, a similar exercise should be mandated by SEBI for PE investors. This will help in a big way to make investors smarter and benefit in their understanding of value and valuations of a company. This will also give an idea in which PE Investor’s divestment is something left on the table.

On the covid-19 front, the world saw 23,54,35,786 patients, 48,11868 deaths and 21,22,44,299 patients who had recovered. In India we saw 3,38,13,903 patients, 4,48,846 deaths and 3,30,94,529 patients who had recovered. Compared to the previous week, the world saw 21,42,991 new patients, 54,291 deaths and 33,36,047 patients who had recovered. In India we saw 1,61,158 new patients, 1,898 deaths and 1,92,178 patients who had recovered. In terms of vaccinations, 88.94 cr vaccinations have been administered. This number includes the first and second vaccination combined.

Coming to markets in the week ahead, there should be some upward movement in the early part of the week on the back of sharp correction witnessed during the last week. This is also on account of the weakness in global markets led by Dow and the disturbing news coming from China on many fronts. The sharp rally witnessed on Dow on Friday should influence market opening on Monday but may not be enough for the rest of the week.

Considering the vulnerability and extreme volatility witnessed last week, it makes sense to continue the strategy of buy on sharp dips and sell on strong rallies. Keep some amount of money in cash as opportunities are available as was the case last week. Secondly with results reporting season beginning there would be higher stock specific action visible from next week onwards. On the back of results from the leaders, one would get a fair idea of how the sector is behaving. Use this analysis to play the markets.

Trade cautiously and curb temptation.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)

Business

Sensex, Nifty decline for 4th week as oil shock keeps investors cautious

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New Delhi, Sep 5: Indian equity markets remained volatile and under pressure through the week, with the benchmark Nifty extending its losing streak to four consecutive weeks, as surging crude oil prices and escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities overshadowed strong domestic economic data.

The Nifty ended the week at 23,897.70, gaining 0.10 per cent on Friday, but still registered a weekly decline of around 1.2 per cent. The index snapped a four-session losing streak, although it remained below key moving averages and continued to show a weak near-term technical structure.

The Sensex closed the week at 76,515.43, rising 362.57 points, or 0.48 per cent, on Friday. Despite the late-week recovery, the index declined around 1 per cent over the week and remained caught in a broader corrective and consolidation phase.

The biggest pressure on Indian equities came from crude oil, with Brent crude rising more than 8 per cent during the week and WTI crude gaining over 9 per cent. Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and concerns over possible disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz pushed up the geopolitical risk premium in global energy markets.

The rise in oil prices came despite encouraging domestic economic indicators. India’s economy grew 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of FY27, comfortably exceeding market expectations, while strong GST collections also pointed to continued momentum in economic activity. However, these positive developments failed to provide a sustained boost to equities as investors remained focused on the potential impact of higher crude prices on inflation, the current account and corporate profitability.

Foreign institutional investors continued to remain a source of pressure, recording net outflows of around Rs 5,600 crore during the week. Domestic institutional investors, however, provided strong support, with net inflows of around Rs 18,560 crore, helping absorb a significant portion of the foreign selling.

On a month-to-date basis, FIIs remained net buyers of approximately Rs 2,374 crore in September, while DIIs recorded net purchases of around Rs 18,568 crore. Strong domestic institutional participation has emerged as an important stabilising factor for Indian equities, although persistent foreign selling could continue to limit the market’s upside.

Investors will now closely track the upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could play an important role in determining the direction of global markets.

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Pune poised to become India GCC capital, says Maha CM

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Pune, Sep 4: Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis on Friday said Pune is rapidly emerging as the country’s leading hub for Global Capability Centres (GCCs), with more than 130 centres currently operational and the number expected to cross 800 in the coming years.

He reaffirmed the state government’s commitment to positioning Pune as the preferred destination for GCC investments in India. The Chief Minister was speaking at the inauguration of Magnum Ice Cream Company’s Global Business Solutions Centre.

Highlighting that Maharashtra has emerged as the preferred investment hub for Global Capability Centers in India, CM Fadnavis noted that the enthusiastic response from multinational corporations establishing global business centers in Pune is a testament to the city’s business-friendly environment and skilled talent pool.

The Chief Minister explained that Magnum’s Pune centre will generate more than 1,000 direct job opportunities alongside boosting indirect employment. To optimise the company’s global business operations, the facility will integrate artificial intelligence, automated technologies, logistics, and other advanced solutions to streamline manufacturing, distribution, and customer experience operations.

“When the government and the industry collaborate, it creates a robust ecosystem that accelerates investment, job creation, and overall economic growth. The state government remains committed to providing all necessary support and a conducive climate for businesses investing in Maharashtra,” he stated.

He further added that this Global Business Solutions Centre in Pune, operating alongside the regional headquarters in Mumbai, will chart a new direction for Magnum’s expansion in Maharashtra. Active measures are being taken to strengthen physical infrastructure across Pune’s industrial sectors — with a special focus on resolving IT infrastructure challenges in Hinjawadi — to make the region an even more attractive destination for GCCs.

Industry department principal secretary Dr P. Anbalagan noted that Global Capability Centres are not merely office spaces, but crucial engines driving the nation’s economic momentum. India has established itself as a global leader in the GCC space, with Maharashtra and Pune playing a pivotal role in this expansion. In Pune alone, demand for commercial office space by GCCs reached approximately 6 million square feet over the past 15 months, while 130 new or expanded GCC units were set up across the state over the last 18 months.

He added that the state government has set a target of hosting 400 GCC companies and over 700 units in the coming period. Currently, Pune hosts operations from companies representing over 30 countries across 20 sectors, employing nearly 10,000 professionals.

Investment and Policy Advisor to the CM, Kaustubh Dhavse, remarked that the relationship between Magnum Ice Cream Company and the Government of Maharashtra is built on trust, reliability, and mutual respect. He added that the Indian-origin executive leadership steering the company globally brings inspiring experience.

In his opening address, Abhijit Bhattacharya, CFO of Magnum Ice Cream Company, credited the state government’s rapid decision-making process for making the global business centre a reality in a short time frame.

He cited Maharashtra’s robust industrial ecosystem, superior connectivity, and proactive administration as key factors in selecting Pune.

Bhattacharya commended CM Fadnavis’s vision to make Maharashtra a premier hub for global business centres and expressed the company’s intent to collaborate with the state on sustainable dairy systems, while also bringing the global ice cream brand ‘Ben & Jerry’s’ to India.

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Adani Ports to start dedicated empty container yard operations at Mundra to boost efficiency

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Ahmedabad, Sep 4: Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd (APSEZ) on Friday said it is launching a dedicated Empty Container Yard (ECY) with integrated warehousing at Mundra, offering end-to-end services across the empty container lifecycle, including storage, maintenance, inspection, and seamless movement to exporters and CFSs (container freight stations).

As part of its ‘Ambition 2031’ roadmap, APSEZ is making significant investments to expand capacity across its network, with Mundra at the forefront of this growth.

India’s largest integrated transport operator plans to add more than 6 million TEUs of container handling capacity over the next five years, said the Adani Group company.

“The dedicated Empty Container Yard at Mundra, to be operated by APSEZ and/or partners (including CFS and shipping lines), will enhance efficiency across the container ecosystem by enabling faster turnaround times, reducing unnecessary container movements, and optimising logistics costs,” said Ashwani Gupta, Whole-time Director and Chief Executive Officer, APSEZ.

Strengthening trade-enabling infrastructure remains central to APSEZ’s commitment towards supporting India’s growth and the vision of Viksit Bharat, Gupta added.

Adani Ports commands a 45.5 per cent share of India’s container market as of FY26. Within this, Mundra Port alone handles nearly 35 per cent of the country’s container trade, making it India’s largest container-handling port.

The volume of empty containers handled at Mundra is estimated at around 1.6 million TEUs annually, underscoring its critical role in supporting India’s import-export supply chains, said the company.

Moreover, the initiative aligns with the government’s focus on developing efficient, technology-enabled logistics systems and improving ease of doing business.

Adani Ports operates a comprehensive ecosystem of 16 strategically located ports and terminals with a diversified marine fleet of 136 vessels and integrated logistics capabilities.

With a current cargo handling capacity of 653 million tonnes per annum, APSEZ commands approximately 27 per cent of India’s total port volumes, targeting 1 billion tonnes throughput by 2030.

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