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Market volatility to continue with some initial surge in markets

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The week began with a bang with new closing highs recorded on both the BSESENSEX and NIFTY on the very first trading day of the week. Alas! The good news ended there and markets fell on each of the remaining four days to end with losses for the week. BSESENSEX lost 1,282.69 points or 2.14 per cent to close at 58,765.78 points while NIFTY lost 321.15 points or 1.80 per cent to close at 17,532.05 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 1.65 per cent, 1.38 per cent and 1.19 per cent, respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 0.12 per cent, while BSESMALLCAP gained 0.69 per cent. The closing high recorded during the week was 60,077.88 made on September 27 while the intraday high made was in the previous week at, 60,412.32 points, also made the same day. On NIFTY, the closing high made on the same day was 17,855.10 points while the intra-day high made was on the previous September 24at 17,947.65 points.

The Indian Rupee lost 42 paisa or 0.57 per cent to close at Rs 74.12 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones lost 471.54 points or 1.36 per cent to close at 34,326.46 points. A large part of the losses was reversed on Friday when Dow Jones gained 482 points. Had that not happened, loses would have been close to 950 points.

September series expired on the last trading day of the month at 17,618.15 points, a gain of 981.25 points or 5.90 per cent for the month. Markets were under pressure this week and surrendered quite a bit and gave in to the bears.

The opening day of October series began on a weak note and continued with the prevailing weakness of the previous three days. NIFTY on the first day of the series lost 86.10 points and began on a weak note. The last time we saw such a trend was in the May 21 series which began on a weak note, losing 263 points on the opening day, April 30. The May series ended with gains of 442.95 points or 2.97 per cent. Using this as empirical evidence would suggest that though we began the first day of a new series on a weak note, we would in all probability end with gains for the series.

During the week we saw, bids for Air India being opened, and in all probability, it appears that the wheel has come a full circle. Air India which was nationalised way back in 1952-53, It is likely to be again owned and operated by the house of Tatas. While full details of the same are yet awaited, Tatas with their interest in newly acquired Air India which includes Air India, erstwhile Alliance Air, Air India Express and Indian Airlines along with their existing JV’s with Vistara and Air Asia would become a key and dominant player in aviation in India going forward.

In primary market news, the issue from Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited closed for subscription and was subscribed 5.25 times. QIB portion was subscribed 10.36 times, HNI portion 4.39 times, Retail portion was subscribed 3.24 times and Shareholder preferential quota was subscribed 1.68 times. There were 15.66 lac applications.

On the side-lines of this issue, Standard Life sold 1.06 cr shares of HDFC AMC while this issue was on and garnered close to Rs 3,000 cr. The size of their sale was more than the amount raised by Aditya Birla AMC through their issue.

Shares of Paras Defence and Space Technologies Limited which is the highest response receiving issue since 2007, debuted on the bourses on Friday and had a lift-off on day one. Shares which were issued at Rs 175 closed at the upper circuit of Rs 498.75 on BSE, a gain of Rs 323.75 or 185 per cent. It’s a great start and the last time one saw anything near this kind of gains was in the case of IRCTC in October 2019.

Reserve Bank of India meets for its bi-monthly monetary policy review between Wednesday to Friday with the announcement on Friday. There maybe a minor hardening of repo rates

to reduce the excess liquidity in the system, but the expectation is not necessarily a consensus view. Barring this, the consensus is rates are expected to remain status-quo.

Calendar year 2021 has been the year of the primary markets but with one major difference. This year 75 per cent of the funds raised or more have been in the form of divestment by mainly the PE players and some portion of this by promoters. Growth capital or capital infusion into the company has been less than a fourth of the funds raised. PE investors invest money into a company through SPV’s where the name of the entity is different in each company where they invest and it is difficult for an investor to understand who is behind the company. In such a scenario like in the case of merchant bankers who give a track record of three years of their performance in new issues, a similar exercise should be mandated by SEBI for PE investors. This will help in a big way to make investors smarter and benefit in their understanding of value and valuations of a company. This will also give an idea in which PE Investor’s divestment is something left on the table.

On the covid-19 front, the world saw 23,54,35,786 patients, 48,11868 deaths and 21,22,44,299 patients who had recovered. In India we saw 3,38,13,903 patients, 4,48,846 deaths and 3,30,94,529 patients who had recovered. Compared to the previous week, the world saw 21,42,991 new patients, 54,291 deaths and 33,36,047 patients who had recovered. In India we saw 1,61,158 new patients, 1,898 deaths and 1,92,178 patients who had recovered. In terms of vaccinations, 88.94 cr vaccinations have been administered. This number includes the first and second vaccination combined.

Coming to markets in the week ahead, there should be some upward movement in the early part of the week on the back of sharp correction witnessed during the last week. This is also on account of the weakness in global markets led by Dow and the disturbing news coming from China on many fronts. The sharp rally witnessed on Dow on Friday should influence market opening on Monday but may not be enough for the rest of the week.

Considering the vulnerability and extreme volatility witnessed last week, it makes sense to continue the strategy of buy on sharp dips and sell on strong rallies. Keep some amount of money in cash as opportunities are available as was the case last week. Secondly with results reporting season beginning there would be higher stock specific action visible from next week onwards. On the back of results from the leaders, one would get a fair idea of how the sector is behaving. Use this analysis to play the markets.

Trade cautiously and curb temptation.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)

Business

HM Shah lays foundation stone for 1,655 industrial units ensuring Rs 2 lakh crore investment in MP

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Gwalior, Dec 25: Union Home and Cooperation Minister Amit Shah delivered an inspiring address at the ‘Abhyudaya Madhya Pradesh Growth Summit’ here on Thursday, marking the 101st birth anniversary of former Prime Minister and Bharat Ratna recipient Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

Speaking on the theme ‘Investment to Employment – Atal’s Resolve, a Bright Madhya Pradesh’, HM Shah hailed the state’s rapid transformation under the double-engine government, declaring that Madhya Pradesh is emerging as the growth engine of ‘Viksit Bharat’.

HM Shah lavished praise on Chief Minister Mohan Yadav for pioneering initiatives aimed at balanced regional development across the state.

He highlighted CM Yadav’s innovative approach of organising regional investment promotion events and ground-breaking ceremonies in every division, ensuring equitable growth and unlocking the untapped potential of all areas.

“Chief Minister Mohan Yadav has taken thoughtful steps to establish a strong foundation for all-round development through his regional investment committees,” he said, adding that these efforts surpass even the energetic pace set by previous long-serving BJP Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

The Home Minister emphasised the critical importance of symmetrical industrial establishment to leverage Madhya Pradesh’s strategic geographical location.

He pointed to the traditional strength of cotton production in the Malwa and Gwalior-Chambal regions, noting that declining farmer incomes due to unfair prices could be reversed by setting up processing and allied industries locally. This would minimise transportation costs, make cotton farming profitable again, and connect seamlessly to markets in Delhi, western states, and nearby districts.

HM Shah described the day’s massive investment push – with foundation stones laid for 1,655 industrial units worth over Rs 2 lakh crore, expected to create 193,000 jobs – as a fitting tribute to former Prime Minister Vajpayee’s vision of good governance and national progress.

Held in Vajpayee’s birthplace, the summit, he said, embodied the late leader’s ideology of self-reliance, development, and inclusive growth, giving it a grand resonance on this auspicious occasion.

HM Shah expressed hope for continued central support, promising that true welfare stems from aligning with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision for a prosperous India. The event, attended by prominent industrialists and cabinet ministers, reinforced Madhya Pradesh’s commitment to converting investments into widespread employment and regional prosperity.

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Gautam Adani hails war heroes, workers, farmers, and specially-abled as NMIA commences operations

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Mumbai, Dec 25: Gautam Adani, Chairman of the Adani Group, hailed war heroes, farmers, and the specially abled as the Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMIA) — India’s newest Greenfield airport — welcomed its first passengers on Thursday.

The airport, inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on October 8, began its operations on the day of Christmas.

Welcoming the first passengers, the Adani Group Chairman saluted the soldiers who protect the nation, workers who built the airport for their “unbreakable spirit”, farmers who feed the country, and the specially abled who inspire the nation.

“It was a deeply moving moment to stand beside Param Vir Chakra awardees Captain Bana Singh and Subedar Major Sanjay Kumar as the Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMIA) welcomed its very first passengers,” said Gautam Adani, in a post on social media platform X.

“In that moment, alongside the war heroes, stood the other quiet architects of the nation — the workers who built this airport with their bare hands and unbreakable spirit; the farmers and their families who feed India; the social workers who selflessly serve millions alongside the @AdaniFoundation; and our specially abled colleagues who inspire us every single day. For many of them, this was the first flight of their lives,” the Adani Group Chairman added.

“Soldiers who protect Bharat. Workers who build Bharat. Farmers who sustain Bharat. Social workers who serve Bharat. The specially abled who inspire Bharat,” the industrialist said.

Gautam Adani stated that NMIA showcases an opportunity for the country to move forward without leaving anyone behind.

“@AdaniPriti and I were deeply honoured to stand with them at NMIA – a moment that captured what this airport truly represents – opportunity with dignity, and a rising India that moves forward without leaving anyone behind,” the Adani Group Chairman said.

“Their blessings, their courage, and their resilience drive us every single day to build bigger, serve better, and work harder in service of the nation. Jai Hind,” the businessman added.

NMIA is a public-private partnership (PPP) between Mumbai International Airport Limited (MIAL), a subsidiary of Adani Airports Holdings Limited (AAHL), which holds the majority stake of 74 per cent, while the City and Industrial Development Corporation of Maharashtra Limited (CIDCO) hold the remaining 26 per cent.

In the first month, NMIA will operate for 12 hours — between 08:00 hours and 20:00 hours — handling 23 scheduled daily departures.

During the initial launch period, passengers will benefit from services operated by IndiGo, Air India Express, and Akasa Air, connecting Mumbai to 16 major domestic destinations.

Starting February 2026, the airport will transition to round-the-clock operations, expanding to 34 daily departures to meet the increasing needs of the MMR.

NMIA is also conducting comprehensive Operational Readiness and Airport Transfer (ORAT) trials in collaboration with all stakeholders, including security agencies and airline partners.

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Gold and silver bring cheers for investors, 2026 outlook remains strong

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Mumbai, Dec 25: In a year marked by heightened global uncertainty, precious metals delivered exceptional returns for investors, with silver emerging as a surprise winner.

Silver prices surged by more than 137 per cent — outperforming gold — which also posted a strong gain of around 68 per cent this year.

With equity markets facing volatility, both metals strengthened their position as preferred safe investment options, but silver clearly outshone all traditional choices.

Gold’s strong performance was supported by geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.

A major driving force behind gold’s rally was steady buying by global central banks. For three consecutive years — 2022, 2023 and 2024 — central banks have purchased more than 1,000 tonnes of gold each year.

Alongside this, global investors continued to invest through gold ETFs, using them as a safe place to park funds.

Big global banks have turned increasingly bullish on gold’s outlook. Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 year-end gold price target to $4,900 per ounce, citing strong central bank demand and ETF inflows.

Deutsche Bank has also upgraded its outlook, projecting gold prices at $4,450 per ounce in 2026.

Silver’s rally, however, has been driven by more than just safe-haven demand. Strong industrial usage has played a crucial role.

Growing demand from sectors such as solar power, electric vehicles, and electronics has significantly increased silver consumption.

At the same time, supply constraints have tightened the market, pushing prices sharply higher.

This dual role — as a precious metal and an industrial input — has helped silver deliver more than double the returns of gold in 2025.

Looking ahead, experts believe the positive momentum in silver could continue into 2026.

Market specialists say that strong industrial demand, limited supply, and supportive global trends could help silver rise by another 15 to 20 per cent next year.

Some analysts expect that in the first half of 2026 alone, silver may generate an additional 20 to 25 per cent return from current levels, though they advise investors to invest gradually, especially if prices see short-term corrections.

Gold’s outlook also remains positive for 2026. Continued central bank buying, possible US rate cuts, and ongoing geopolitical risks are expected to support prices.

Analysts suggest that keeping an eye on central bank activity — whether they continue buying, hold their reserves, or start selling — will be critical, as their actions often signal future price trends well in advance.

“With uncertainty still dominating the global economic landscape, precious metals are likely to continue playing an important role in investor portfolios, offering a mix of safety and growth potential,” experts stated.

Meanwhile, both metal’s prices climbed to new record highs on the MCX on Wednesday morning, helped by a weak US dollar and expectations that the US Federal Reserve may cut interest rates further.

Gold futures for February rose 0.42 per cent to touch an all-time high of Rs 1,38,469 per 10 grams. Silver futures for March jumped nearly 2 per cent to hit a fresh record of Rs 2,23,742 per kg.

In the global market, gold prices crossed the $4,500 per ounce level for the first time. The rise was driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets as investors expect more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve next year.

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