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Market volatility to continue with some initial surge in markets

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The week began with a bang with new closing highs recorded on both the BSESENSEX and NIFTY on the very first trading day of the week. Alas! The good news ended there and markets fell on each of the remaining four days to end with losses for the week. BSESENSEX lost 1,282.69 points or 2.14 per cent to close at 58,765.78 points while NIFTY lost 321.15 points or 1.80 per cent to close at 17,532.05 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 1.65 per cent, 1.38 per cent and 1.19 per cent, respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 0.12 per cent, while BSESMALLCAP gained 0.69 per cent. The closing high recorded during the week was 60,077.88 made on September 27 while the intraday high made was in the previous week at, 60,412.32 points, also made the same day. On NIFTY, the closing high made on the same day was 17,855.10 points while the intra-day high made was on the previous September 24at 17,947.65 points.

The Indian Rupee lost 42 paisa or 0.57 per cent to close at Rs 74.12 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones lost 471.54 points or 1.36 per cent to close at 34,326.46 points. A large part of the losses was reversed on Friday when Dow Jones gained 482 points. Had that not happened, loses would have been close to 950 points.

September series expired on the last trading day of the month at 17,618.15 points, a gain of 981.25 points or 5.90 per cent for the month. Markets were under pressure this week and surrendered quite a bit and gave in to the bears.

The opening day of October series began on a weak note and continued with the prevailing weakness of the previous three days. NIFTY on the first day of the series lost 86.10 points and began on a weak note. The last time we saw such a trend was in the May 21 series which began on a weak note, losing 263 points on the opening day, April 30. The May series ended with gains of 442.95 points or 2.97 per cent. Using this as empirical evidence would suggest that though we began the first day of a new series on a weak note, we would in all probability end with gains for the series.

During the week we saw, bids for Air India being opened, and in all probability, it appears that the wheel has come a full circle. Air India which was nationalised way back in 1952-53, It is likely to be again owned and operated by the house of Tatas. While full details of the same are yet awaited, Tatas with their interest in newly acquired Air India which includes Air India, erstwhile Alliance Air, Air India Express and Indian Airlines along with their existing JV’s with Vistara and Air Asia would become a key and dominant player in aviation in India going forward.

In primary market news, the issue from Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited closed for subscription and was subscribed 5.25 times. QIB portion was subscribed 10.36 times, HNI portion 4.39 times, Retail portion was subscribed 3.24 times and Shareholder preferential quota was subscribed 1.68 times. There were 15.66 lac applications.

On the side-lines of this issue, Standard Life sold 1.06 cr shares of HDFC AMC while this issue was on and garnered close to Rs 3,000 cr. The size of their sale was more than the amount raised by Aditya Birla AMC through their issue.

Shares of Paras Defence and Space Technologies Limited which is the highest response receiving issue since 2007, debuted on the bourses on Friday and had a lift-off on day one. Shares which were issued at Rs 175 closed at the upper circuit of Rs 498.75 on BSE, a gain of Rs 323.75 or 185 per cent. It’s a great start and the last time one saw anything near this kind of gains was in the case of IRCTC in October 2019.

Reserve Bank of India meets for its bi-monthly monetary policy review between Wednesday to Friday with the announcement on Friday. There maybe a minor hardening of repo rates

to reduce the excess liquidity in the system, but the expectation is not necessarily a consensus view. Barring this, the consensus is rates are expected to remain status-quo.

Calendar year 2021 has been the year of the primary markets but with one major difference. This year 75 per cent of the funds raised or more have been in the form of divestment by mainly the PE players and some portion of this by promoters. Growth capital or capital infusion into the company has been less than a fourth of the funds raised. PE investors invest money into a company through SPV’s where the name of the entity is different in each company where they invest and it is difficult for an investor to understand who is behind the company. In such a scenario like in the case of merchant bankers who give a track record of three years of their performance in new issues, a similar exercise should be mandated by SEBI for PE investors. This will help in a big way to make investors smarter and benefit in their understanding of value and valuations of a company. This will also give an idea in which PE Investor’s divestment is something left on the table.

On the covid-19 front, the world saw 23,54,35,786 patients, 48,11868 deaths and 21,22,44,299 patients who had recovered. In India we saw 3,38,13,903 patients, 4,48,846 deaths and 3,30,94,529 patients who had recovered. Compared to the previous week, the world saw 21,42,991 new patients, 54,291 deaths and 33,36,047 patients who had recovered. In India we saw 1,61,158 new patients, 1,898 deaths and 1,92,178 patients who had recovered. In terms of vaccinations, 88.94 cr vaccinations have been administered. This number includes the first and second vaccination combined.

Coming to markets in the week ahead, there should be some upward movement in the early part of the week on the back of sharp correction witnessed during the last week. This is also on account of the weakness in global markets led by Dow and the disturbing news coming from China on many fronts. The sharp rally witnessed on Dow on Friday should influence market opening on Monday but may not be enough for the rest of the week.

Considering the vulnerability and extreme volatility witnessed last week, it makes sense to continue the strategy of buy on sharp dips and sell on strong rallies. Keep some amount of money in cash as opportunities are available as was the case last week. Secondly with results reporting season beginning there would be higher stock specific action visible from next week onwards. On the back of results from the leaders, one would get a fair idea of how the sector is behaving. Use this analysis to play the markets.

Trade cautiously and curb temptation.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)

Business

Iran war costs deepen split in US Congress amid scrutiny of $200 billion funding request

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Washington, March 20: Rising costs of the Iran war and its impact on global markets are deepening divisions in Congress, with Republicans and Democrats questioning the scale and purpose of a proposed funding request that could exceed $200 billion, according to multiple US media reports.

The White House is preparing to seek massive new funding for the conflict, even as scepticism grows within President Donald Trump’s own party over the lack of a clear strategy and timeline, CNN reported. Lawmakers say the administration has yet to fully explain how the money will be used or how long the US military engagement could last.

Trump signalled the request could be substantial, arguing the military needs resources to maintain strength. “We want to be in the best shape, the best shape we’ve ever been in,” he said, adding, “It’s a small price to pay to make sure that we stay tippy top.”

But that argument is facing pushback. Some Republicans have openly rejected further spending, reflecting growing unease about what several described as a potential “endless war”.

“I am a no. I have already told leadership. I am a no on any war supplemental. I am so tired of spending money over there,” Representative Lauren Boebert said, according to CNN. “I have folks in Colorado who can’t afford to live. We need America First policies right now.”

Others are demanding detailed answers before committing support. “What are we doing? We’re talking about boots on the ground. We’re talking about that kind of extended activity,” said Representative Chip Roy. “They got a whole lot more briefing and a whole lot more explaining to do on how we’re going to pay for it and what’s the mission here?”

Fiscal conservatives have also questioned whether the proposed funding could expand further. “It begs the question, how long do they plan to be there? What are the goals? Is this the first $200 billion? Does this turn into a trillion?” Representative Thomas Massie said, CNN reported.

The debate comes as the conflict intensifies in the Gulf. US and allied forces have stepped up operations around the Strait of Hormuz, deploying attack aircraft and helicopters to target Iranian naval assets and reopen critical shipping lanes, The Wall Street Journal reported.

“The A-10 Warthog is now engaged across the southern flank, targeting fast-attack watercraft in the Strait of Hormuz,” General Dan Caine said, adding that Apache helicopters “have joined the fight on the southern flank,” according to the Journal.

The escalation has already shaken global energy markets. Oil prices surged sharply as attacks on infrastructure across the region raised fears of supply disruptions, The New York Times reported.

Analysts warned the economic fallout could deepen if hostilities continue. “Energy warfare has been utilised from day one,” said Anna Jacobs, according to The Washington Post, noting that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have affected a key global supply route.

At the same time, lawmakers in both parties say they have received limited and incomplete cost assessments, adding to concerns over approving such a large sum. Some Republicans have proposed conditions, including spending offsets or audits of Pentagon finances, before backing any funding bill.

Senate leaders have indicated the path forward remains uncertain. “It remains to be seen” whether the request could pass, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said, according to CNN.

Democrats, meanwhile, remain largely opposed to approving funds under current conditions, further complicating the administration’s efforts to secure congressional backing.

The conflict has also triggered broader policy debates within the administration, including whether easing sanctions on Iranian oil could help stabilise global prices, The Washington Post reported. Officials say such steps could bring additional supply to the market, though analysts warn it could also strengthen Iran financially during the war.

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Business

LPG Crisis: How A Simple Digital DAC OTP System Is Plugging A Massive Black-Market Loophole

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India’s cooking gas distribution network has long been plagued by a quiet crisis – subsidised LPG cylinders meant for households routinely ended up in the black market, diverted by unscrupulous delivery personnel and agents. With the LPG crisis now deepening due to the US-Iran war, the government’s answer to this is deceptively simple – an OTP.

The Delivery Authentication Code (DAC) is a one-time-use code used to verify the legitimacy of home LPG cylinder delivery, ensuring the cylinder reaches the rightful customer. When a booking is made, the customer receives the code on their registered mobile number, which must be shown to the delivery person before the cylinder changes hands.

Ever since the crisis began, the government has significantly scaled up this system, with DAC coverage now reaching nearly 72 percent of deliveries, up from 53 percent earlier. The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has directed oil companies to ensure the DAC system is used in at least 80 percent of LPG deliveries, making OTP verification mandatory for the majority of cylinders.

Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) have introduced the DAC system – sent via SMS and shared with delivery personnel – to ensure verified delivery, with IVRS/SMS refill booking also implemented nationwide, providing alerts at key stages including booking, cash memo generation, and delivery.

If distributors fail to meet the DAC requirement, the system flags cylinders as still in the agency’s inventory even though they have been delivered -creating a digital paper trail that exposes irregularities and improves transparency across the supply chain.

Consumers can ensure they receive DAC codes by taking these steps:

– Link your mobile number to your LPG consumer ID via your distributor or the Indane/HP/Bharat Gas app.

– Book via IVRS by calling your provider’s helpline – the DAC is sent automatically via SMS upon booking.

– Update details online at iocl.com or your respective oil company’s portal.

– Visit your distributor with photo ID and consumer ID if SMS is not being received.

– If the OTP does not arrive, customers can show their Aadhaar card as an alternate identity verification to receive the cylinder.

With the government pushing toward an 80 percent DAC compliance target, the system represents a low-cost, high-impact fix to a problem that has cost the exchequer significantly. For millions of households, it also means the subsidised cylinder they paid for will actually reach their doorstep.

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India’s power plants well stocked with coal as PSUs step up production

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New Delhi, March 19: India’s thermal power plants have adequate coal stocks of around 53.41 million tonnes which are adequate for nearly 23 days at the present rate of consumption, and further stocks are also being built up at the pitheads of coal mining companies as a proactive measure to meet any exigency amid the disruption in oil and gas supplies due to the Iran war, the Ministry of Coal said on Thursday.

The pithead coal stock at the mines of Coal India Limited (CIL), which was 106.78 million tonnes (MT) as on April 1, 2025, has grown to about 125.54 MT as on March, 18, 2026. Further, there is around 5.75 MT of coal at the mines of Singareni Collieries Company Limited (SCCL) and another 15.75 MT coal at the mines of captive/commercial mines and about 12 MT in transit and about 5.49 MT in ports and good-shed sidings, according to a statement issued by the ministry.

Coal is continuing to ensure reliable baseload power to support core industries such as steel and cement that underpin the economic growth of the country. The coal production in the country continues at a pace matching the prevailing demands of the consumer and building adequate stocks at the mine-end for maintaining adequate supplies to the consumers as per their requirements, with the continued support of Railways, the statement said.

Coal India Limited is taking adequate measures to ensure the supply of coal to all consumers, including small, medium, and other consumers. As a proactive step, CIL has planned 29 e-auctions in the month of March, offering about 23.56 MT of coal. Out of these 29 auctions, 5 auctions have already been conducted since March 12, wherein 73.1 lakh ton of coal was offered, and 31.96 lakh ton of coal has been booked, indicating adequacy of coal offered in the e-auctions, the statement said.

In addition to this, CIL has also taken necessary action to ensure coal availability to the small, medium and other consumers through the State Nominated Agencies (SNAs) route and requested the state governments to provide the additional coal requirement, which can be met in full to avoid any energy shortages. The coal offtake of the states through the SNAs is being constantly monitored by CIL to ensure that uninterrupted supplies are ensured, the statement said.

The Ministry of Coal is ensuring a performance-driven ecosystem through sustained policy facilitation, robust monitoring mechanisms, and proactive stakeholder engagement. These concerted efforts are aimed at providing reliable coal availability, enabling uninterrupted operations across critical sectors, and effectively meeting the nation’s growing energy demands, the statement added.

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