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Macro-data to dictate market trend; high valuations a concern

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Ongoing quarterly results season, along with the release of macro-economic data on industrial output and inflation, will determine the trajectory of the key Indian equity indices in the week ahead.

Besides, market experts expressed concern over high valuations as well as global cues impacting FPI inflows.

However, healthy quarterly earnings combined with production growth and normalisation of supply chains will keep investors’ sentiments high.

“FPI selling has abated for the time being. However, we need positive FPI flows for the markets to keep rising from here,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities

“A 17,613-17,757 band is crucial on the downside, while a breach of 18,013 could lead to more upsides.”

On Thursday, during the hour-long ‘Mahurat Trade Session’, FIIs sold Rs 328.11 crore worth of stocks on the BSE, NSE and MSEI in the capital market segment.

In terms of corporate earnings, Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said: “Companies have largely delivered in line with expectation. Most companies have indicated of recovery in demand as the economy opened up although higher commodity and energy prices have exerted downward pressure on margins.”

“Companies have taken price hikes to pass on the impact of commodity costs, and the impact of it on demand remains to be seen. However, valuations are still at a premium and would demand consistent earning delivery going ahead. Thus market might continue to remain under pressure till valuations get reasonable and global cues improve.”

Furthermore, companies such as Motherson Sumi Systems, Britannia Industries, Bharat Heavy Electricals, IDFC, Indraprastha Gas, Mahindra & Mahindra, MRF, Power Grid, Coal India, Hero MotoCorp and Hindalco are expected to release their Q2 earning results in the coming week.

Apart from Q2 results, investors will look forward to the macro-economic data of IIP (Index of Industrial Production) and Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) is slated to release the macro-economic data points of IIP and CPI on November 12.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services: “On a near to medium basis, investors should focus on defensive sectors in anticipation of higher market volatility.”

“Sectors such as tourism, capital goods & infra due to the fiscal push and power (renewables) and manufacturing sectors that are bound to benefit from the full-reopening of the economy should be under the investors’ radar.”

In addition, Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart said: “FIIs’ behaviour along with inflation numbers from the US and China will remain key factors for the next week.”

“After an extended weekend, Indian markets are likely to start a fresh week with a positive note on the global backdrop, however there is a risk of selling pressure at higher levels as we are underperforming the global peers where the near term texture has changed to ‘sell on rise’ from ‘buy on dip’.”

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Sensex – Nifty Open Lower Amid Weak FII Sentiment, Midcap & Smallcap Stocks Lend Market Support

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Key Highlights:

– Sensex fell 171 pts, Nifty down 35 pts; midcaps, smallcaps held strong.

– FIIs sold Rs 3,694 crore worth of stocks; DIIs bought Rs 2,820 crore.

– Nifty’s bearish engulfing pattern suggests continued caution; 25,000 key support.

Mumbai: Indian equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty began Friday’s session in the red, weighed down by selling pressure in large-cap stocks. At 9:25 am, the Sensex declined by 171 points or 0.21 percent to trade at 82,087, while the Nifty dropped 35 points or 0.14 percent to 25,075.

Heavyweights Drag, Broader Market Holds

Major drag on the indices came from key constituents such as Axis Bank, Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and HDFC Bank. Financial stocks, FMCG, and private banking segments were under pressure. However, midcap and smallcap segments outperformed, providing resilience to the overall market.

Gainers on the Sensex included M&M, Tata Steel, Power Grid, L&T, Infosys, and Maruti Suzuki, reflecting strength in sectors like auto, metals, and infra.

Sectoral Picture Mixed

On the sectoral front, gains were recorded in auto, IT, PSU banks, metals, realty, energy, media, infrastructure, and commodities. Meanwhile, financial services, FMCG, and private banking faced losses.

Technical indicators showed bearish signals, with Nifty completing a bearish engulfing candle on Thursday. Analysts highlight 25,000 as a key support and 25,340 as a vital resistance level.

FIIs Remain Net Sellers

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued their selling trend, offloading equities worth Rs 3,694 crore on July 17 — marking the second consecutive session of net selling. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs), however, remained net buyers, purchasing Rs 2,820 crore worth of shares for the ninth straight session.

According to Dr. VK Vijayakumar of Geojit Financial Services, FIIs have shown a clear pattern of selling in July after buying in the previous three months. Without positive triggers, the downtrend could persist.

Global Cues Offer Some Relief

Asian markets traded mostly higher on Friday, with Shanghai, Hong Kong, Bangkok, and Jakarta in the green, although Tokyo and Seoul lagged. The US markets ended positively on Thursday, driven by upbeat investor sentiment.

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Indian Equity Indices Open Flat As Markets Await Fresh Triggers To Break Out Of Consolidation Phase

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Mumbai: The Indian equity indices opened flat on Thursday, as markets looked for new triggers to break out of the consolidation range.

At 9.2 am, c was down 15 points at 82,619 and Nifty was down 2 points at 25,210. Buying was seen in the midcap and smallcap stocks. Nifty midcap 100 index was up 123 points or 0.18 per cent at 59,741 and Nifty smallcap 100 index was up 70 points or 0.37 per cent at 19,210.

On the sectoral front, auto, pharma, FMCG, metal, realty, energy, infra and PSE were major gainers, while IT, PSU bank, financial services and media were major losers.

In the Sensex pack, Sun Pharma, M&M, Trent, Kotak Mahindra, Tata Motors, NTPC, BEL, Titan and Power Grid were major gainers. Tech Mahindra, ICICI Bank, Eternal, Axis Bank, Infosys and HUL were major losers.

According to analysts, an India-US interim trade deal has been discounted by the market, leaving no scope for a sharp rally decisively breaking the range.

“One positive and surprise factor that can trigger a rally is a tariff rate much below 20 per cent, say 15 per cent, which the market has not discounted. So, watch out for developments on the trade and tariff front,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

Most Asian stocks traded in a flat-to-low range. Tokyo, Shanghai, Bangkok and Jakarta were trading in the green while Hong Kong and Seoul were in the red.

The US market closed in the green on Wednesday due to positive market sentiment.

On the institutional front, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to reduce exposure in India, selling equities worth Rs 1,858 crore on July 16. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained consistent buyers for the 8th straight session, infusing Rs 1,223 crore, lending crucial support to the market amid global uncertainties.

The broader trend remains optimistic as long as key support levels are respected, said analysts.

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Tesla Mumbai Showroom Now Open, Bookings For Model Y Begin

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Elon Musk’s Tesla has flagged off its India operations with its first showroom in Mumbai now open. The showroom is located in Mumbai’s premium Bandra Kurla Complex area. It will be showcasing the popular Model Y and Model 3 cars at the venue. Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis arrived at the first Tesla showroom in India, to commemorate the occasion.

The new Mumbai showroom opening marks the entry of Tesla in India, one of the world’s fastest-growing automobile markets. The showroom, at Maker Maxity in BKC, is around 4,000 sq ft large and is said to cost Rs. 35 lakh per month. While customers will be able to book their cars starting today, delivery is said to commence sometime in August. Delivery and registration are only limited to Delhi, Gurugram and Mumbai for now.

The experience centre is located near the Apple flagship store in BKC. Tesla is said to open a showroom isn Delhi as well. While this is a soft launch, the company is expected to do a grand inauguration as well. To book the Model Y or the Model 3, consumers will need to head to the Mumbai experience store.

Musk’s company has imported all the cars fully assembled from China, paying heavy taxes (approximately 70 percent) on the same. The cars are said to be priced starting at around Rs. 40 lakhs in India.

The spotlight will be on the Model Y, which is the most popular variant of Tesla across the world. The SUV is available globally in two variants, Long Range RWD and Long Range AWD (Dual Motor). It claims to offer up to 574 km and goes from 0 to 100 kmph in just 4.6 seconds.

The Model 3, Tesla’s most affordable offering in the Indian market, will also be showcased but is expected to go on sale later in 2025. The top variant of the Model 3 clocks 0 to 100 kmph in 3.1 seconds, has a range of 507 km, and a top speed of 162 kmph.

Tesla India has reportedly leased a 24,500-square-foot space in Mumbai’s Kurla West to set up a service centre, located close to its upcoming showroom in BKC.

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