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Indices extends losses, settle low, MPC outcome in focus

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Domestic equity benchmark indices kept their opening session losses intact throughout the session and settled lower on Tuesday, as the overall sentiments still remain cautious amongst investors as they are worried about inflation and benchmark interest rates.

Sensex closed the day at 55,107 points, down 1 per cent, whereas Nifty at 16,416 points, was down 0.9 per cent.

The RBI’s stance on the economy and the actual amount of rise in key lending rates would dictate further course of action in the capital markets.

The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) review meeting, which is currently underway, will reveal its decision on Wednesday morning.

Though the Reserve Bank of India raising policy rates in the ongoing monetary policy committee meeting is a “no brainer”, as said by its Governor Shaktikanta Das in a recent interview, investors, however, await the actual degree of percentage hike before taking fresh positions and future course of action in the financial markets.

“The volatility in the market is forcing investors to stay sidelined ahead of the RBI’s policy announcement. The market has factored a hike up to 50 basis points of repo rate and CRR, but any further stricter measures to clamp liquidity due to lingering inflation will have ramifications on the market trend,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

Given the geopolitical tensions seen on the global front, the Centre has increased its defence expenditure outlay, which augurs well for the defence related stocks, said Ashwin Patil, Senior Research Analyst at LKP Securities, adding that he is positive on defence manufacturer Bharat Electronics.

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Gold, silver decline sharply on weekly basis as crude prices rise

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Gold prices dipped 3.28 per cent on a weekly basis, while silver prices declined 7.83 per cent this week, as rising crude oil prices heightened inflation fears.

The rising inflation concerns reinforced expectations that global interest rates will stay higher for longer, prompting a wave of selling across precious‑metals markets.

On Friday, MCX gold futures expiring December declined 0.81 per cent while MCX silver futures for December shed 1.75 per cent. Gold futures stood at Rs 1,42,150, while silver futures stood at Rs 1,96,100 per kg.

Gold saw its steepest weekly decline since June and slipped below the psychologically important $4,000 per ounce level for the first time since mid-July, analysts said.

The selloff in silver intensified over weakness in US technology stocks, particularly AI-linked companies, which triggered margin calls and forced investors to liquidate precious-metal holdings.

Meanwhile, crude oil surged to multi-month highs following renewed attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and shipping routes, while the Indian rupee surrendered its early-week gains amid rising oil prices and renewed dollar demand.

However, lower prices encouraged physical gold purchases in India during the Dussehra festival, providing some underlying demand support, while Chinese jewellery demand remained subdued.

Market participants forecast that precious metals could remain under pressure if elevated energy prices reinforce inflation concerns and expectations of tighter monetary policy. However, physical demand and any moderation in bond yields could offer support following the recent correction, they said.

Markets largely expect the US Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the October 27–28 policy meeting, but expectations of another rate hike in December remain elevated, with traders pricing approximately a 78 per cent probability.

Investors are also awaiting the US Personal Consumption Expenditures report next week for additional guidance on inflation and future interest-rate decisions.

Immediate resistance for Comex Gold is placed at $4,070–$4,100 zone, while support lies at $3,970–$4,000 zone, analysts said.

For MCX Gold, immediate resistance is placed at Rs 1,43,000–Rs 1,43,700 zone, while the support lies at Rs 1,40,000–Rs 1,41,000, they added.

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ED raids Hyderabad firms in Rs 326 crore bank fraud probe

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The Directorate of Enforcement (ED), Hyderabad Zonal Office, on Friday conducted search operations at seven premises across Hyderabad, Secunderabad and Medchal-Malkajgiri in Telangana under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), an official statement said on Saturday.

The raids targeted the registered office of M/s Kanakadhara Ventures Pvt. Ltd. (KVPL), the residences of its directors, and premises linked to entities and individuals alleged to have acted as conduits for the diversion of bank funds.

The searches form part of an ongoing investigation into the alleged “misutilisation” and diversion of credit facilities sanctioned to KVPL and its directors, the ED statement said.

The ED case stems from an FIR dated December 8, 2022, registered by the Central Bureau of Investigation, Bank Securities and Fraud Branch (BS&FB), Bangalore, on a complaint from Punjab National Bank.

The FIR alleges offences under Sections 120-B, 420, 468 and 471 of the Indian Penal Code, and provisions of the Prevention of Corruption Act, 1988.

According to the agency, a consortium of banks led by Punjab National Bank — comprising IDBI Bank, Union Bank of India, Andhra Bank (now UBI) and Bank of Baroda — suffered a loss of Rs 326.49 crore.

ED investigations revealed that Bank Guarantee and Letter of Credit facilities granted to KVPL were misused. Funds were allegedly diverted through related and conduit entities on the strength of fabricated steel purchase invoices and transport documents.

The company is also accused of operating bank accounts outside the consortium arrangement without the knowledge of the lending banks, the statement said.

During the searches, officials seized incriminating documents, digital devices and other records related to the diversion and layering of funds. Unaccounted cash amounting to Rs 15 lakh was also recovered.

Multiple immovable properties and investments linked to the case have been identified.

ED said further investigation is underway.

The coordinated action underscores the agency’s continued focus on tracing the proceeds of bank frauds and cracking down on complex money-laundering networks involving corporate entities.

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Indian equities extend losses this week as Brent crude oil rises to 6-month high

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The macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with crude oil emerging as a key source of uncertainty for domestic markets, analysts said on Saturday, as the Indian equities endured a challenging, holiday-shortened week, with benchmark indices extending their losses.

Nifty 50 and Sensex recorded weekly declines of approximately 2.4 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively.

Both benchmark indices extended their losing streaks to four consecutive sessions.

The sell-off spread beyond large-cap stocks, with mid-cap and small-cap indices experiencing sharper declines as investors reduced exposure amid rising uncertainty, said market participants.

The Nifty 50 ended the week under pressure, after declining for four consecutive sessions. Persistent selling has weakened the short-term technical structure, with the index struggling to sustain its earlier recovery.

The immediate resistance zone is placed around 22,800, followed by 23,000, said analysts. For the Sensex, on the downside, 72,600–72,500 forms the immediate support zone.

The broader market took the brunt of the de-risking, as valuation concerns and the unwinding of leveraged positions triggered a disproportionately sharp correction in mid- and small-caps, while large-caps held up comparatively better.

Across sectors, IT was the lone pocket of resilience, recovering from early selling to end the week largely unchanged on improving earnings visibility and renewed investor appetite.

However, rate-sensitive sectors such as consumer durables, metals and realty saw the heaviest selling as input-cost and margin worries resurfaced, said analysts.

Brent crude oil rose to a six-month high on Friday. Brent futures gained 3.1 per cent to close at $116.72 a barrel, highest since April 29. US West Texas Intermediate added 3.8 per cent to settle at $103.27 a barrel.

Brent added 6.2 per cent for the week, while WTI advanced 2 per cent for the week.

According to analysts, sustained increases in crude prices could raise energy and transportation costs, weigh on consumption and intensify pressure on oil-sensitive sectors.

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