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India’s Oct retail inflation inches-up on high food, input prices

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India’s October retail inflation inched-up on sequential basis on the back of a marginal rise in food prices along with high fuel and commodity prices.

Accordingly, data furnished by the National Statistical Office showed that Consumer Price Index (CPI) inched-up to 4.48 per cent last month from 4.35 per cent in September 2021.

However, on YoY basis, the rise in last month’s retail inflation was slower than the 7.61 per cent rise recorded for October 2020.

The macro-economic data assumes significance as retail inflation remained we ll within the range of the Reserve Bank of India’s set target of 2-6 per cent for CPI inflation.

Region-wise, the CPI Urban rose to 5.04 per cent last month from 4.57 per cent in September and the CPI Rural came down to 4.07 per cent from 4.13 per cent.

As per the NSO data, the rate of rise in Consumer Food Price Index increased to 0.85 per cent last month from 0.68 per cent in September.

The CFPI readings measure the changes in retail prices of food products.

In terms of CPI YoY inflation rate, pulses and products’ prices jumped by 5.42 per cent in October 2021.

Besides, meat and fish prices rose by 7.12 per cent, however, eggs became cheaper by 1.38 per cent, nevertheless, the overall price of food and beverages category was up 1.82 per cent and oils and fats prices rose 33.50 per cent.

On the other hand, vegetable prices declined by 19.43 per cent.

Furthermore, as per the official data, the inflation rate for fuel and light was at 14.35 per cent.

In addition, sub-group of clothing and footwear showed a price acceleration of 7.53 per cent.

“Despite base effect, still-high fuel costs, input cost pressures and season al turn in some food prices in coming months etc. could even see inflation rise towards more than 6.2 per cent later in the fiscal year,” said Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services.

“We revise our forecast by 25bps to 5.5 per cent for FY22, as we reckon supply-side bottlenecks, higher imported commodity inflation and high pump prices would pose a countering upside pressure on inflation.”

According to Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA: “The uptick in the YoY CPI inflation in October 2021 relative to the previous month, while mild, was pretty broad-based, with the hardening in the inflation for clothing and footwear, and miscellaneous items suggesting that reviving demand is nudging producers in some sectors to pass through the input price pressures, resulting in a pickup in the core inflation to 5.8 per cent in that month.”

Business

India’s infrastructure market expected to hit Rs 25 lakh crore by 2030: Report

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New Delhi, Nov 25: India is entering a multi-year infra super-cycle, with the Nifty Infrastructure index delivering 2 times returns of the Nifty 50 over the past three years, a report said on Tuesday.

India’s infrastructure equities have evolved from defensive to high‑beta, high‑alpha and could nearly double in market size by 2030 to around Rs 25 lakh crore, the report from Smallcase said.

Analysts said that the growth is driven government spending and private capex revival — helped by PLI schemes, global supply-chain shifts, and manufacturing incentives.

Smallcase estimated that Rs 1 of infrastructure capex delivers roughly Rs 2.5 — Rs 3 of GDP impact.

Markets are likely to maintain a high beta to infrastructure execution; earnings visibility across engineering, construction, industrials, cement, power equipment and logistics remain robust, the report noted.

InvITs growth will be underpinned by predictable, contract-based revenue streams offering pre‑tax yields of about 10–12 per cent and post‑tax returns near 7–9 per cent generally higher than many conventional fixed-income instruments.

The Nifty Infrastructure Index returned 14.5 per cent, 82.8 per cent and 181.2 per cent over the past 1, 3 and 5 years, outperforming the Nifty 50’s 10.5 per cent, 41.5 per cent and 100.3 per cent, the report said.

“Though Infrastructure investment in India Although these assets can experience temporary fluctuations during periods of market uncertainty, their historical volatility of about 10.2 per cent is well below the equity market’s 15.4 per cent, resulting in comparatively steadier performance,” said Abhishek Banerjee, Investment manager on smallcase, and founder of LotusDew.

With a correlation of only 0.42 to equities, infrastructure platforms tend to behave similarly to utilities, producing consistent, inflation-linked income that is largely unaffected by economic swings, he added.

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Business

New initiative aims to strengthen India’s homegrown cyber resilience

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New Delhi, Nov 25: The government has launched a landmark Cyber Security Innovation Challenge (CSIC) 1.0 for students and researchers to work upon real-world cyber challenges, positioning the field as a viable career path and strengthens India’s homegrown cyber resilience.

The initiative, launched under the Information Security Education and Awareness (ISEA) project of MeitY, aims to building not only skilled professionals and positioning cyber security as a viable career path, but also catalysing homegrown, product-oriented solutions.

S. Krishnan, IT Secretary, emphasised the need for a two-pronged national cyber security strategy — expanding awareness of emerging threats while strengthening technological capabilities. He highlighted that CSIC 1.0 addresses both imperatives.

Krishnan said that cyber security demands a ‘whole-of-nation’ approach, echoing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of a ‘whole-of-government’ strategy.

Acknowledging the collaborative presence of MeitY, CERT-In, NSCS, AICTE, C-DAC, DSCI, and leaders from academia and industry, he stressed the importance of nurturing winning ideas beyond the Minimum Viable Product (MVP) stage, creating pathways for them to evolve into scalable solutions through collaboration with startups and industry partners.

Vinayak Godse, CEO, Data Security Council of India, provided an engaging walkthrough of CSIC 1.0’s five-stage structure and extensive problem statements, developed through months of intense deliberation between DSCI, C-DAC, and the ISEA team.

He highlighted that this first-of-its-kind initiative enables students and researchers to innovate and develop entrepreneurial mindsets from the early stages.

Professor V Kamakoti, Director IIT Madras, mentioned that the innovation challenge under ISEA Project highlights our enhanced understanding of core challenges and positions us to craft transformative solutions.

The 10 domain specific problem statements highlight areas which are aligned to the cyber security needs of the nation and require fresh, innovative thinking.

Dr Sanjay Bahl, Director General, CERT-In, highlighted ISEA’s critical role in fostering innovation that shifts the paradigm from reactive defense to proactive security.

He noted that the Innovation Challenge creates a vital platform uniting R&D, academia, and industry, with solutions from academic institutions envisioned to reach the market as deployable products.

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Business

Gold prices slide 1 pc on MCX as Fed Rate cut hopes fade

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Mumbai, Nov 24: Gold prices fell sharply on Monday as weak chances of a US Federal Reserve rate cut and easing geopolitical tensions weighed on investor sentiment.

A stronger US dollar also added pressure on the precious metal.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold December futures dropped 1 per cent to Rs 1,22,950 per 10 grams.

Silver followed the trend, with December futures falling 0.61 per cent to Rs 1,53,209 per kg in early trade.

“In INR gold has support at Rs1,23,450-1,22,480 while resistance at Rs1,24,750-1,25,500,” analysts said.

“Silver has support at Rs1,53,050-1,52,350 while resistance at Rs1,55,140, 1,55,980,” they added.

Analysts said gold currently lacks any strong positive trigger to maintain its previous gains.

The latest US job market data reduced expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which has been a key reason behind the correction in prices.

The strong economic data pushed the US dollar index to nearly a six-month high on Friday.

The index remained above the 100 level on Monday, making gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies and restricting demand.

Geopolitical concerns have also eased in recent days, further reducing gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Experts believe the combination of a stronger dollar, uncertainty over US tariff decisions, developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the upcoming Fed policy announcement may keep gold prices volatile in the near term.

Some market analysts expect further correction and advise investors to stay cautious before making fresh purchases.

Gold is attempting to reclaim momentum as prices hover near $4,100, driven by growing expectations of a December Fed rate cut, now priced at 71 per cent probability after dovish hints from officials like Miran and Williams.

“Bullion has been choppy over the past three sessions, reflecting traders’ indecision, but with rate-cut bets rising and geopolitical risks lingering, dips in gold are likely to attract renewed buying interest in the coming week with next resistance seen around 125000 and support near 122000,” experts added.

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