Business
RBI projects India’s FY23 retail inflation at 4.5%
India’s FY23 retail inflation is projected at 4.5 per cent, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday.
Besides, inflation projection for 2021-22 is retained at 5.3 per cent, with Q4FY22 at 5.7 per cent on account of unfavourable base effects that are expected to ease subsequently.
In his policy statement post the Monetary Policy Committee’s bi-monthly meeting, Das said: “The CPI reading for January 2022 is expected to move closer to the upper tolerance band, largely due to adverse base effects.
“Taking all these factors into consideration and on the assumption of a normal monsoon, CPI inflation for 2022-23 is projected at 4.5 per cent with Q1:2022-23 at 4.9 per cent; Q2 at 5.0 per cent; Q3 at 4.0 per cent; and Q4 at 4.2 per cent, with risks broadly balanced.”
The Governor said that the CPI inflation trajectory has moved in close alignment with the RBI’s projections.
“In particular, the softening of food prices is providing welcome relief. The improving prospects for foodgrains production and the expected easing of vegetable prices on fresh winter crop arrivals are adding further optimism.
“Moreover, the softening of pulses and edible oil prices is likely to continue in response to strong supply side interventions by the Government and increase in domestic production.”
However, Das pointed out that hardening of crude oil prices presents a major upside risk to the inflation outlook.
“Core inflation remains elevated at tolerance testing levels, although the continuing pass through of tax cuts relating to petrol and diesel last November would help to moderate input cost pressures to some extent.
“The transmission of input cost pressures to selling prices remains muted in view of the continuing slack in demand. Further, as risks from Omicron wane and supply chain pressures moderate, there could be some softening of core inflation.”
On Thursday, the RBI retained its key short-term lending rates during the sixth and final monetary policy review of FY22. The growth-oriented accommodative stance was also retained to give a push to economic activity.
Additionally, the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained the repo rate, or short-term lending rate, for commercial banks, at 4 per cent.
Das said that at the current juncture, the conduct of domestic monetary policy is primarily attuned to the evolving inflation and growth dynamics.
“We remain watchful of spillovers from the uncertain global developments and divergent monetary policy responses.
“Our monetary policy would continue to be guided by its primary mandate of price stability over the medium term, while also ensuring a strong and sustained economic recovery.”
Business
Gold, silver decline up to 1 pc as US-Iran tensions weigh sentiment

New Delhi, Aug 14: Gold and silver prices traded sharply lower on Friday amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of never-before-seen economic measures against Iran.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (October) declined as much as 0.8 per cent or Rs 1,233 to Rs 1,52,233, hitting an intraday low by 10:22 am.
At the last count, the yellow metal was trading at 1,52,415, down Rs 1,051 or 0.68 per cent. It touched an intraday high of Rs 1,53,200 so far in the session, a decrease of 0.17 per cent or Rs 266 from the previous close.
Similarly, silver futures (September) recorded an intraday low of Rs 2,32,454, decreasing 1.27 per cent or Rs 2,993.
The white metal was trading at Rs 2,32,880, down Rs 2,567 or about 1 per cent. It touched an intraday high of Rs 2,33,982, down 0.62 per cent or Rs 1,465.
Earlier in the day, gold and silver opened at Rs 1,53,200 and Rs 2,33,780, respectively on the MCX.
The selling pressure in precious metals came after reports suggest that Bessent said the US would use a combination of economic isolation and a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to market experts, MCX Gold extends downside momentum, trading near Rs 152,500 after facing rejection from highs near Rs 155,500.
They further noted that immediate resistance is placed at Rs 153,000–Rs 153,500 near open and a decisive move above could push toward Rs 154,000–Rs 154,500.
Immediate support is seen at Rs 152,000–Rs 151,500, followed by stronger support at Rs 151,000, the experts said adding that price continues to hold comfortably above all major EMAs, but MACD indicates slowing bullish momentum and RSI reverses from overbought territory, reflecting possible near-term pressure.
For MCX Silver, the experts stated that immediate support is seen at the Rs 232,000 zone, followed by stronger support at Rs 231,500–Rs 231,000.
Price breaks below the 20-day EMA, with MACD indicating slowing bullish momentum, while RSI eases, supporting the trend-reversal narrative and reflecting near-term pressure. Bias remains cautious, with a break below Rs 232,000 likely to invite further downside.
Business
India may attract up to $95 billion inflows in FY27 on strong FCNR response: Report

New Delhi : Robust foreign currency non‑resident (bank) FCNR(B) inflows and related measures from RBI are now expected to generate $90–95 billion of capital inflows in FY27, lifting India’s balance of payments to a surplus of $64 billion, a report has said.
The report from CareEdge Ratings said the agency has revised up its FCNR(B) projection to about $80 billion and expects External Commercial Borrowings and Overseas Foreign Currency inflows at $10–15 billion.
Consequently, India’s capital account surplus is now expected to increase to approximately $108 billion, compared with a surplus of just $2 billion in the previous year
The report added that the BoP is forecast to improve to a $64 billion surplus in FY27 from deficits of $23.6 billion in FY26 and $5 billion in FY25.
“This would represent a substantial strengthening of India’s external position and provide an important buffer against global volatility,” the ratings agency said.
The concessional swap windows for FCNR(B) deposits, External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) and Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowings (OFCBs), amongst other policy measures announced on June 5, 2026, have seen a strong response.
The firm noted these measures have attracted USD 40.8 billion, with FCNR(B) inflows accounting for $36.7 billion, and ECBs and OFCBs together accounting for $4.1 billion between June 5 and July 31, 2026.
Large banks are currently offering deposit rates in the 6.0-6.5 per cent range, while some smaller and newer banks are offering rates close to 7 per cent for FCNR deposits.
Additionally, the availability of significant leverage for investors, with some foreign banks reportedly offering leverage as high as 19-fold to 29-fold in some cases, appears to have enhanced the attractiveness of the scheme and supported stronger-than-expected participation.
The report noted that strong capital inflows could ease domestic liquidity as banking system liquidity averaged around Rs 1.1 trillion in July and has risen to Rs 3 trillion so far in August, supported by month‑end inflows.
Business
Sensex, Nifty open flat as investors weigh strong domestic fundamentals against oil price risks

Mumbai, Aug 13: Equity benchmarks opened little changed on Thursday as investors balanced robust domestic growth indicators against lingering concerns over crude oil prices.
Sensex opened 145.56 points or 0.19 per cent higher at 78,111.91, while Nifty slipped marginally by 4.35 points or 0.02 per cent to 24,431.60.
Sector-wise, Nifty Media index rose 0.61 per cent, followed by Nifty Auto which gained 0.39 per cent.
On the other hand, rate-sensitive and heavyweight sectors witnessed selling pressure. Nifty Realty declined 0.81 per cent, Nifty IT fell 0.69 per cent, while Nifty PSU Bank, Oil & Gas and Private Bank indices shed up to 0.61 per cent.
According to market experts, equities are likely to remain in a consolidation phase in the near term due to strong domestic macroeconomic fundamentals and sustained inflows from domestic investors.
High-frequency indicators such as GST collections, freight movement, automobile sales and credit growth continue to signal resilience in the economy and could support earnings growth going forward, they added.
However, elevated crude oil prices and uncertainty surrounding their future trajectory remain key risks for the market, the experts said.
Technical analysts noted that Wednesday’s rebound from the 20-day moving average and the formation of a hammer candlestick pattern have improved the near-term outlook.
“The recent price action has opened the possibility of a move towards the 24,540-24,666 zone initially, followed by 24,850-25,100. However, some consolidation may emerge near 24,490,” according to them.
Meanwhile, Brent crude slipped more than 1 per cent to $87.75 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 1.64 per cent to $81.90 per barrel, helping ease concerns over inflationary pressures and input costs.
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