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India’s Oct exports rise over 42%, imports over 62%

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India’s merchandise exports in October rose to $35.47 billion, higher by 42.33 per cent on a year-on-year basis, preliminary data showed on Monday.

Exports in October 2020 had stood at $24.92 billion.

According to data furnished by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, in comparison to October 2019, last month’s exports rose by 35.21 per cent.

“India’s merchandise exports in October 2021 were at $35.47 billion, an increase of 42.33 per cent over $24.92 billion in October 2020 and an increase of 35.21 per cent over $26.23 billion in October 2019.”

“Value of non-petroleum exports in October 2021 was $30.27 billion, registering a positive growth of 29.63 per cent over non-petroleum exports of $23.35 billion in October 2020 and a positive growth of 32.84 per cent over non-petroleum exports of $22.79 billion in October 2019.”

Besides, value of non-petroleum and non-gems and jewellery exports in October 2021 registered a positive growth of 27.54 per cent to $26.05 billion over non-petroleum and non-gems and jewellery exports of $20.43 billion in October 2020.

As per the data, India’s merchandise imports last month increased by 62.49 per cent to $55.37 billion over $34.07 billion in October 2020 and an increase of 45.76 per cent over $37.99 billion in October 2019.

“Value of non-petroleum imports was $40.94 billion in October 2021 with a positive growth of 45.82 per cent over non-petroleum imports of $28.07 billion in October 2020 and a positive growth of 44.87 per cent over non-petroleum imports of $28.26 billion in October 2019.”

“Value of non-oil, non-GJ (gold, silver & precious metals) imports was $32.42 billion in October 2021 with a positive growth of 39.29 per cent over non-oil and non-GJ imports of $23.27 billion in October 2020 and a positive growth of 30.72 per cent over non-oil and non-GJ imports of $24.8 billion in October 2019.”

Consequently, trade deficit last month rose by 117.38 per cent YoY to $19.90 billion from $9.15 billion while it increased by 69.29 per cent when compared to $11.75 billion reported for October 2019.

ICRA’s Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said: “The merchandise trade deficit compressed only modestly to $19.9 billion in October 2021, from the record-high $22.6 billion in September 2021, with a heartening sequential uptick in non-oil exports, accompanied by a decline in oil imports after the spike seen in the previous month.”

“Predictably, gold imports remained strong amidst the onset of the festive season, and we expect the aggregate imports to spike to $40-45 billion in FY2022, especially if the rabi outlook supports rural sentiment.”

FIEO President A. Sakthivel said that the monthly exports performance of $35.47 billion with an impressive double-digit growth of more than 42 per cent, signifies the importance of opening up and further recovery of economies across the globe coupled with buoyant order booking position across sectors.

“This has not only added positive sentiment for exports but has also further enthused the exporters to perform with much more vigour and zeal thereby achieving the $400 billion merchandise exports target in the current fiscal,” he said.

The FIEO Chief also praised efforts of the exporting community, who have continued to perform remarkably well during these challenging times.

Business

Gold, silver decline up to 1 pc as US-Iran tensions weigh sentiment

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New Delhi, Aug 14: Gold and silver prices traded sharply lower on Friday amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of never-before-seen economic measures against Iran.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (October) declined as much as 0.8 per cent or Rs 1,233 to Rs 1,52,233, hitting an intraday low by 10:22 am.

At the last count, the yellow metal was trading at 1,52,415, down Rs 1,051 or 0.68 per cent. It touched an intraday high of Rs 1,53,200 so far in the session, a decrease of 0.17 per cent or Rs 266 from the previous close.

Similarly, silver futures (September) recorded an intraday low of Rs 2,32,454, decreasing 1.27 per cent or Rs 2,993.

The white metal was trading at Rs 2,32,880, down Rs 2,567 or about 1 per cent. It touched an intraday high of Rs 2,33,982, down 0.62 per cent or Rs 1,465.

Earlier in the day, gold and silver opened at Rs 1,53,200 and Rs 2,33,780, respectively on the MCX.

The selling pressure in precious metals came after reports suggest that Bessent said the US would use a combination of economic isolation and a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to market experts, MCX Gold extends downside momentum, trading near Rs 152,500 after facing rejection from highs near Rs 155,500.

They further noted that immediate resistance is placed at Rs 153,000–Rs 153,500 near open and a decisive move above could push toward Rs 154,000–Rs 154,500.

Immediate support is seen at Rs 152,000–Rs 151,500, followed by stronger support at Rs 151,000, the experts said adding that price continues to hold comfortably above all major EMAs, but MACD indicates slowing bullish momentum and RSI reverses from overbought territory, reflecting possible near-term pressure.

For MCX Silver, the experts stated that immediate support is seen at the Rs 232,000 zone, followed by stronger support at Rs 231,500–Rs 231,000.

Price breaks below the 20-day EMA, with MACD indicating slowing bullish momentum, while RSI eases, supporting the trend-reversal narrative and reflecting near-term pressure. Bias remains cautious, with a break below Rs 232,000 likely to invite further downside.

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Business

India may attract up to $95 billion inflows in FY27 on strong FCNR response: Report

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New Delhi : Robust foreign currency non‑resident (bank) FCNR(B) inflows and related measures from RBI are now expected to generate $90–95 billion of capital inflows in FY27, lifting India’s balance of payments to a surplus of $64 billion, a report has said.

The report from CareEdge Ratings said the agency has revised up its FCNR(B) projection to about $80 billion and expects External Commercial Borrowings and Overseas Foreign Currency inflows at $10–15 billion.

Consequently, India’s capital account surplus is now expected to increase to approximately $108 billion, compared with a surplus of just $2 billion in the previous year

The report added that the BoP is forecast to improve to a $64 billion surplus in FY27 from deficits of $23.6 billion in FY26 and $5 billion in FY25.

“This would represent a substantial strengthening of India’s external position and provide an important buffer against global volatility,” the ratings agency said.

The concessional swap windows for FCNR(B) deposits, External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) and Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowings (OFCBs), amongst other policy measures announced on June 5, 2026, have seen a strong response.

The firm noted these measures have attracted USD 40.8 billion, with FCNR(B) inflows accounting for $36.7 billion, and ECBs and OFCBs together accounting for $4.1 billion between June 5 and July 31, 2026.

Large banks are currently offering deposit rates in the 6.0-6.5 per cent range, while some smaller and newer banks are offering rates close to 7 per cent for FCNR deposits.

Additionally, the availability of significant leverage for investors, with some foreign banks reportedly offering leverage as high as 19-fold to 29-fold in some cases, appears to have enhanced the attractiveness of the scheme and supported stronger-than-expected participation.

The report noted that strong capital inflows could ease domestic liquidity as banking system liquidity averaged around Rs 1.1 trillion in July and has risen to Rs 3 trillion so far in August, supported by month‑end inflows.

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Business

Sensex, Nifty open flat as investors weigh strong domestic fundamentals against oil price risks

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Mumbai, Aug 13: Equity benchmarks opened little changed on Thursday as investors balanced robust domestic growth indicators against lingering concerns over crude oil prices.

Sensex opened 145.56 points or 0.19 per cent higher at 78,111.91, while Nifty slipped marginally by 4.35 points or 0.02 per cent to 24,431.60.

Sector-wise, Nifty Media index rose 0.61 per cent, followed by Nifty Auto which gained 0.39 per cent.

On the other hand, rate-sensitive and heavyweight sectors witnessed selling pressure. Nifty Realty declined 0.81 per cent, Nifty IT fell 0.69 per cent, while Nifty PSU Bank, Oil & Gas and Private Bank indices shed up to 0.61 per cent.

According to market experts, equities are likely to remain in a consolidation phase in the near term due to strong domestic macroeconomic fundamentals and sustained inflows from domestic investors.

High-frequency indicators such as GST collections, freight movement, automobile sales and credit growth continue to signal resilience in the economy and could support earnings growth going forward, they added.

However, elevated crude oil prices and uncertainty surrounding their future trajectory remain key risks for the market, the experts said.

Technical analysts noted that Wednesday’s rebound from the 20-day moving average and the formation of a hammer candlestick pattern have improved the near-term outlook.

“The recent price action has opened the possibility of a move towards the 24,540-24,666 zone initially, followed by 24,850-25,100. However, some consolidation may emerge near 24,490,” according to them.

Meanwhile, Brent crude slipped more than 1 per cent to $87.75 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 1.64 per cent to $81.90 per barrel, helping ease concerns over inflationary pressures and input costs.

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