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Indian economy in robust spot globally in 2025 with high frequency indicators picking up growth

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New Delhi, Jan 2: As 2025 begins on a note of heightened global uncertainties ahead of the US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, India continues to be in a much stronger position with high frequency indicators showing a pick up in the pace of growth in the third quarter of current fiscal (Q3 FY25), according to a report on Thursday.

GST collections, services purchasing managers’ index (PMI), air passenger growth, and vehicle registrations saw a notable improvement in Q3 versus Q2, according to a Bank of Baroda (BoB) report.

On the other hand, in China, while the manufacturing sector is expanding slowly, lifting domestic consumption and reviving the real estate sector is proving to be a task for the administration.

The US economy is giving mixed signals regarding growth. While the labour market appears to be softening and manufacturing activity is weak, retail sales, pending home sales, and the service sector seem to be doing well. In Europe, manufacturing activity is unable to pick up pace so far, while the service sector is regaining ground.

In India, the current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to 1.2 per cent of GDP in Q2 FY25 from 1.3 per cent of GDP in Q2 FY24.

“While the trade deficit was higher, buoyant services exports as well as continued strength in remittances underscored the lower CAD. Our year-end market analysis shows that both Sensex and Nifty 50 surged by 8.7 per cent and 9 per cent in CY24. Sensex touched an all-time high this year as it breached the mark of 85,500,” said Sonal Badhan, economist, Bank of Baroda.

Sectors including real estate, consumer durables, and IT were amongst the best-performing stocks in CY24. The Indian rupee depreciated by 2.8 per cent in 2024, but remained one of the better-performing currencies among its peers.

The pressure on yields was lower and boosted demand flow as the market witnessed the bond inclusion in the JP Morgan emerging market index, Bloomberg, and FTSE Russel.

According to the report, high frequency indicators have shown notable improvement in the October-December 2024 period. GST collections have jumped by 8.3 per cent (YoY) in Q3 to Rs 5.5 lakh crore, and are also up from Rs 5.3 lakh crore in Q2, signalling further improvement in consumption pattern.

Apart from this, helped by festive demand, other indicators of urban consumption have also improved. Air passenger air traffic registered 11.6 per cent growth in Q3, compared with 7.8 per cent growth registered in Q2. Services PMI averaged 59.2 in Q3 versus 58.1 in the same period last year.

“We expect quarterly corporate results to also show improved performance in Q3,” said Badhan.

On the central bank actions, the report said growth is expected to recover in H2 FY25 and inflation abating, “we see a scope of 25 bps rate cut in February 2025. We expect a cumulative easing of 50-75bps in the current cycle.”

Furthermore, with the expectation of a pick-up in government spending followed by improvement in both government and private investment in H2, the IIP growth will perform a lot better in H2 FY25 from H1 FY25, it noted.

Business

Ban on sale of open cooking oil, strict action on refilling used containers and reusing frying oil

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Mumbai A complete ban has been imposed on the sale and purchase of open cooking oil. It is harmful to health and poses a risk of fatal diseases. Therefore, FDA Commissioner Takaram Munde has issued an order to ban it. This order has been issued earlier. In this effective manner, FDA will comply with it. A state-wide comprehensive compliance order has been issued by the Food Safety Commissioner, in which the entire supply from producer to retailer and online seller has been banned and it is prohibited. No concession will be made in the matter of safety of cooking oil, which is directly related to the daily diet of citizens. Under the Food Safety and Standards Act, 2006, Commissioner of Food Safety and Commissioner, Food and Drug Administration, Maharashtra, Takaram Munde has issued a comprehensive state-wide compliance and enforcement order for the edible oils and fats sector. The fourteen-point order is effective with immediate effect and is not limited to retailers but is mandatory for the entire supply chain, from oil expeller unit to online sellers.
The Food and Drug Administration’s inspection has found widespread and consistent lack of compliance in the edible oil supply chain. Operating a business without a valid license or in the wrong business category, mixing cheap and undeclared oil with declared oil, sale of substandard oil with acid value and industrial trans fat exceeding the limit, illegal adulteration of mustard oil, re-labeling to hide the source and date of origin of oil, re-packing of expired oil, use of packaging unfit for food, in view of these issues, this order has been issued to provide a uniform and clear compliance framework across the state. This order will be applicable to oil expeller units, solvent extraction units and oil refiners
Producers of banaspati, interesterified banaspati fat, bakery shortening, margarine and table spreads
Blenders of multi-source edible vegetable oil
Repacking and re-labeling importers, wholesalers, distributors, superstockists and transporters
Granny shops, supermarkets, departmental stores and e-commerce and online sellers
Groundnuts, This order is applicable to all edible oils and fats like mustard, soybean, sunflower, cardi, banola, rice bran, palm and palmolein, coconut, sesame, corn, multi-source edible vegetable oil and banaspati, irrespective of the size and business of the establishment. There are 497 edible oil producers in Maharashtra: Centrally licensed: 212, State licensed: 285, Total: 1247. A total of 1142 edible oil samples were taken in the year 2025-2026, out of which 1142 were found to be substandard, 77* substandard, 13 unsafe and 15 mislabelled.
Important instructions of the order
A valid FSSAI license or registration is mandatory under “License and Laboratory”. The license should be prominently displayed in the establishment.

  • As per other provisions of Schedule 4, Part-2, it is a condition of eligibility for a license for the edible oil producer to have its own laboratory for sample testing. The agreement with an external laboratory is only additional and not a substitute.
    Mode of sale
    Edible oil shall be sold only in sealed, tamper-proof and fully labelled packs. Sale of open and unpackaged oil is prohibited. The producer or distributor supplying open oil shall be the principal violator. He shall be liable under sections 26 and 27. The retailer shall reject unsealed or tampered goods and give the information of the supplier to the Food Safety Officer.
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International

Dead penguins found on Australian island to be tested for H5N1 bird flu

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A flock of 28 penguins that were found dead on an island off the coast of the Australian state of Tasmania will be tested for the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, authorities said on Thursday.Tasmania’s Department of Natural Resources and Environment said that 28 penguins and three greater crested terns were found dead by surveillance teams on King Island, about 100 km off Tasmania’s northwest coast, on Wednesday.

Incident controller Wes Ford said that samples from the birds have been sent to be tested for the H5N1 strain and that the birds would be collected on Thursday to reduce the risk of transmission, reports Xinhua news agency.”Tasmanians care deeply about our wildlife, and particularly our penguins, so we understand that reports like these may be distressing for the community,” he said.

The island state reported its first case of the highly pathogenic strain on Aug. 13, almost two months after it was first detected on the Australian mainland in June.Ford said there had been 11 confirmed H5N1 cases in Tasmania as of Thursday, all in the state’s northwest or on King Island.

“We expect to continue receiving reports of sick and dead birds on King Island, along the northwest coast and in other parts of Tasmania,” he said.He urged Tasmanians to keep cats indoors and to walk dogs on leads to minimise their infection risks and to avoid contact with sick or dead animals.According to the federal Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, there have been 262 confirmed positive H5N1 bird flu events in Australian wildlife as of Aug. 18, but there have been no detections in poultry or the agriculture industry.

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Business

LIC gets RBI nod to increase HDFC Bank stake to 9.99 pc; stocks trade higher

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New Delhi: Shares of Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) — the country’s largest insurer — traded 1 per cent higher on Thursday after receiving approval from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to increase its stake in HDFC Bank to up to 9.99 per cent.

In its regulatory filing, HDFC Bank said the RBI has approved LIC’s application to acquire up to 9.99 per cent of the bank’s paid-up share capital or voting rights.

In addition, LIC currently holds 4.11 per cent of HDFC Bank’s total share capital as of August 14, according to the filing.

The approval gives the state-owned insurance firm flexibility to significantly increase its holding in the private sector lender, subject to applicable regulatory and statutory requirements.

The RBI approval is also subject to conditions specified by the central bank and compliance with relevant Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) regulations, it said.

However, the approval does not mean that LIC will immediately raise its holding to 9.99 per cent. Any increase in stake will have to be undertaken in accordance with the conditions laid down by the RBI and other applicable regulatory norms.

LIC is one of India’s largest institutional investors, while HDFC Bank is among the country’s leading private sector lenders.

Shares of LIC traded around 1 per cent higher at Rs 417.40 on the BSE in early trade on Thursday. The PSU stock has touched a 52-week high of Rs 468.30 and a 52-week low of Rs 361, according to the exchange.

Similarly, HDFC Bank stock also traded higher, jumping 1.09 per cent to Rs 728 on the aforesaid exchange. The banking stock recorded a 52-week high of Rs 1,020.35 and a 52-week low of Rs 715.05.

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