Connect with us
Wednesday,13-May-2026
Breaking News

Business

Indian economy in robust spot globally in 2025 with high frequency indicators picking up growth

Published

on

New Delhi, Jan 2: As 2025 begins on a note of heightened global uncertainties ahead of the US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, India continues to be in a much stronger position with high frequency indicators showing a pick up in the pace of growth in the third quarter of current fiscal (Q3 FY25), according to a report on Thursday.

GST collections, services purchasing managers’ index (PMI), air passenger growth, and vehicle registrations saw a notable improvement in Q3 versus Q2, according to a Bank of Baroda (BoB) report.

On the other hand, in China, while the manufacturing sector is expanding slowly, lifting domestic consumption and reviving the real estate sector is proving to be a task for the administration.

The US economy is giving mixed signals regarding growth. While the labour market appears to be softening and manufacturing activity is weak, retail sales, pending home sales, and the service sector seem to be doing well. In Europe, manufacturing activity is unable to pick up pace so far, while the service sector is regaining ground.

In India, the current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to 1.2 per cent of GDP in Q2 FY25 from 1.3 per cent of GDP in Q2 FY24.

“While the trade deficit was higher, buoyant services exports as well as continued strength in remittances underscored the lower CAD. Our year-end market analysis shows that both Sensex and Nifty 50 surged by 8.7 per cent and 9 per cent in CY24. Sensex touched an all-time high this year as it breached the mark of 85,500,” said Sonal Badhan, economist, Bank of Baroda.

Sectors including real estate, consumer durables, and IT were amongst the best-performing stocks in CY24. The Indian rupee depreciated by 2.8 per cent in 2024, but remained one of the better-performing currencies among its peers.

The pressure on yields was lower and boosted demand flow as the market witnessed the bond inclusion in the JP Morgan emerging market index, Bloomberg, and FTSE Russel.

According to the report, high frequency indicators have shown notable improvement in the October-December 2024 period. GST collections have jumped by 8.3 per cent (YoY) in Q3 to Rs 5.5 lakh crore, and are also up from Rs 5.3 lakh crore in Q2, signalling further improvement in consumption pattern.

Apart from this, helped by festive demand, other indicators of urban consumption have also improved. Air passenger air traffic registered 11.6 per cent growth in Q3, compared with 7.8 per cent growth registered in Q2. Services PMI averaged 59.2 in Q3 versus 58.1 in the same period last year.

“We expect quarterly corporate results to also show improved performance in Q3,” said Badhan.

On the central bank actions, the report said growth is expected to recover in H2 FY25 and inflation abating, “we see a scope of 25 bps rate cut in February 2025. We expect a cumulative easing of 50-75bps in the current cycle.”

Furthermore, with the expectation of a pick-up in government spending followed by improvement in both government and private investment in H2, the IIP growth will perform a lot better in H2 FY25 from H1 FY25, it noted.

Business

Gold, silver prices surge up to 8 pc after import duty hike

Published

on

Mumbai, May 13: Gold and silver prices on Wednesday witnessed a sharp surge of up to 8 per cent after the government more than doubled the import duty on precious metals.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (June 5) advanced as much as 7.20 per cent or Rs 11,055 to touch an intraday high of Rs 1,64,497 per 10 grams as of 9:50 am.

The yellow metal was trading at Rs 1,62,728, up 6 per cent or Rs 9,286 from the previous close. Earlier in the session, it had opened at Rs 1,54,851, rising 0.91 per cent or Rs 1,409, which also remained the intraday low so far.

Meanwhile, silver futures (July 3) also recorded strong gains during the session, jumping as much as 8 per cent or Rs 22,367 to hit an intraday high of Rs 3,01,429 per kg.

The white metal was trading at Rs 2,97,655, up 6.66 per cent or Rs 18,593 from the previous close. It had opened at Rs 2,90,224, rising 4 per cent or Rs 11,162 over the previous settlement price.

The rally in precious metals came after the Centre’s decision to increase customs duties on imports.

The government has raised the import duty, including cess, on gold and silver from 6 per cent to 15 per cent.

Meanwhile, import duty on platinum has been increased from 6.4 per cent to 15.4 per cent.

Through this move, the government aims to reduce the current account deficit and conserve foreign exchange reserves amid ongoing global uncertainty.

According to government sources, the increase in import duty on precious metals is part of a broader strategy aimed at conserving foreign exchange, safeguarding the current account, prioritising essential imports, and strengthening India’s economic resilience amid global uncertainties.

In the international market, COMEX gold rose 0.52 per cent to $4,710 per ounce, while COMEX silver gained 2.28 per cent to trade at $87.54 per ounce.

Continue Reading

Business

PM Narendra Modi’s Appeal On Gold Buying Sparks Employment Concerns; More Than 1 Crore People Directly Employed In Jewellery Industry

Published

on

Mumbai: India’s gem and jewellery industry has warned that any broad reduction in gold jewellery purchases could impact employment linked to the sector, which supports over one crore people directly and several allied industries indirectly.

Responding to PM Narendra Modi’s appeal to avoid buying gold for a year amid rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia, All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC) chairman Rajesh Rokde said the industry supports the government’s national interest concerns but cautioned against measures that could hurt livelihoods.

“Whatever the Prime Minister has said is absolutely correct from the perspective of patriotism and national interest,” Rokde said.

“More than one crore people are directly employed in the industry. Insurance, banking, furniture, packaging and logistics sectors are also dependent on jewellery trade,” he said, warning that restrictions on jewellery buying could raise concerns over unemployment.

At the same time, Rokde supported discouraging bullion and coin purchases made purely for investment purposes. “Stopping unnecessary buying of bullion and coins is absolutely right,” he said.

The industry has instead urged the Centre to strengthen and modernise the Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS) to bring idle household gold into the formal economy and reduce dependence on imports.

According to Rokde, Indians are estimated to hold around 40,000 to 50,000 tonnes of gold. “If even 10-20% of this gold is monetised, India may not need to import gold for the next 10 years,” he said, adding that the GJC has already submitted an end to end monetisation proposal to the government.

GJC vice-chairman Avinash Gupta said gold remains significant for Indian households, but excessive imports also affect the current acc ount deficit and foreign exchange reserves. He said a properly regulated GMS could help channel dormant household gold into the financial system.

Meanwhile, the digital precious metals industry has launched the Digital Precious Metals Assurance Council of India (DPMACI), a self-regulatory body formed by firms including MMTC-PAMP, SafeGold, Augmont, PhonePe, BharatPe, Mobikwik, Gullak, Lenden Club and CRED to improve transparency and consumer protection in the digital gold and silver market.

Continue Reading

Business

Gold surges 1.83 pc this week amid persistent tensions in Strait of Hormuz

Published

on

New Delhi, May 9: Gold prices rose 1.83 per cent during the week over persistent geopolitical uncertainty and volatile crude prices.

On Friday, MCX gold June futures gained 0.04 per cent while MCX silver May futures surged 1.34 per cent. Currently gold futures stand at Rs 1,52,589, while silver futures at Rs 2,61,999 per kg.

The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold was at Rs 1,51,078 on Friday up from Rs 1,48,357 seen on Monday market opening, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).

Precious metals continued to rise for four consecutive sessions as optimism over a potential US‑Iran peace agreement and a softer US dollar outweighed a stronger‑than‑expected US jobs report.

US jobs data showed that employment rose more than forecast in April while the unemployment rate held at 4.3 per cent, underscoring resilience in the labour market and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer.

Central banks maintaining interest rates higher for longer, could pressure non-yielding assets like gold.

In international markets, Comex gold climbed about $50 to a session high of $4,760 per troy ounce, posting a weekly gain near 1.5 per cent. Market participants said the prospect of easing regional tensions and a weaker dollar supported demand for non‑yielding bullion.

Gold and silver have fallen nearly 10 per cent since the US-Iran conflict began on February 28.

The broader safe-haven structure remains intact, though the pace of the rally has moderated as the dollar steadies and broader risk sentiment shows tentative signs of improvement, market participants said.

Despite commodities flow disruption in the Strait of Hormuz dominating the macro narrative, markets are also entering a phase of technical consolidation following the sharp swings witnessed in recent weeks, analysts said.

Precious metals are witnessing mixed price action, with gold and silver attempting to stabilise after recent corrective pressure.

West Asian tensions were rekindled on Thursday after US and Iranian forces exchanged attacks near the strait, though US officials said the ceasefire remained in place.

Immediate resistance for MCX Gold is placed at Rs 1,54,000–Rs 1,55,500, and immediate support is seen near Rs 1,50,000–Rs 1,48,000, analysts said.

For MCX Silver, the Rs 2,65,000 zone acts as immediate resistance, and the Rs 2,60,000–Rs 2,58,000 zone now serves as immediate support, they added.

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending