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Indian economy in robust spot globally in 2025 with high frequency indicators picking up growth

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New Delhi, Jan 2: As 2025 begins on a note of heightened global uncertainties ahead of the US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, India continues to be in a much stronger position with high frequency indicators showing a pick up in the pace of growth in the third quarter of current fiscal (Q3 FY25), according to a report on Thursday.

GST collections, services purchasing managers’ index (PMI), air passenger growth, and vehicle registrations saw a notable improvement in Q3 versus Q2, according to a Bank of Baroda (BoB) report.

On the other hand, in China, while the manufacturing sector is expanding slowly, lifting domestic consumption and reviving the real estate sector is proving to be a task for the administration.

The US economy is giving mixed signals regarding growth. While the labour market appears to be softening and manufacturing activity is weak, retail sales, pending home sales, and the service sector seem to be doing well. In Europe, manufacturing activity is unable to pick up pace so far, while the service sector is regaining ground.

In India, the current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to 1.2 per cent of GDP in Q2 FY25 from 1.3 per cent of GDP in Q2 FY24.

“While the trade deficit was higher, buoyant services exports as well as continued strength in remittances underscored the lower CAD. Our year-end market analysis shows that both Sensex and Nifty 50 surged by 8.7 per cent and 9 per cent in CY24. Sensex touched an all-time high this year as it breached the mark of 85,500,” said Sonal Badhan, economist, Bank of Baroda.

Sectors including real estate, consumer durables, and IT were amongst the best-performing stocks in CY24. The Indian rupee depreciated by 2.8 per cent in 2024, but remained one of the better-performing currencies among its peers.

The pressure on yields was lower and boosted demand flow as the market witnessed the bond inclusion in the JP Morgan emerging market index, Bloomberg, and FTSE Russel.

According to the report, high frequency indicators have shown notable improvement in the October-December 2024 period. GST collections have jumped by 8.3 per cent (YoY) in Q3 to Rs 5.5 lakh crore, and are also up from Rs 5.3 lakh crore in Q2, signalling further improvement in consumption pattern.

Apart from this, helped by festive demand, other indicators of urban consumption have also improved. Air passenger air traffic registered 11.6 per cent growth in Q3, compared with 7.8 per cent growth registered in Q2. Services PMI averaged 59.2 in Q3 versus 58.1 in the same period last year.

“We expect quarterly corporate results to also show improved performance in Q3,” said Badhan.

On the central bank actions, the report said growth is expected to recover in H2 FY25 and inflation abating, “we see a scope of 25 bps rate cut in February 2025. We expect a cumulative easing of 50-75bps in the current cycle.”

Furthermore, with the expectation of a pick-up in government spending followed by improvement in both government and private investment in H2, the IIP growth will perform a lot better in H2 FY25 from H1 FY25, it noted.

Business

Indian Railways boosts passenger and freight capacity in Maharashtra, Telangana

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New Delhi, Sep 18: In a bid to augment railway capacity and improving train operations, Indian Railways on Friday said it has approved the doubling of the Chouk-Karjat railway section (10.86 km) of Central Railway at a cost of Rs 497 crore.

Indian Railways also approved the construction of the 38.21 km new rail line between Mukutban (Adilabad) and Gadchandur in South Central Railway at a cost of Rs 493 crore.

The Central Railway project has been approved for doubling, tripling, quadrupling, flyover and bypass works aimed at augmenting the capacity of the railway network, according to an official statement.

The Chouk-Karjat section forms part of the Panvel-Chouk-Karjat route, which is an important corridor for both passenger and freight movement.

On completion of the project, the section is expected to facilitate five additional passenger trains in each direction per day.

The project is also expected to support additional freight traffic of 18.35 Million Tonnes Per Annum (MTPA). It will also help reduce the detention of freight trains.

Meanwhile, Mukutban in Yavatmal district and Gadchandur in Chandrapur district are important industrial and mining centres, serving several cement plants, coal mines of Western Coalfields Ltd. and nearby limestone mines.

The new rail line will strengthen rail connectivity to these industrial clusters and facilitate more efficient movement of freight, said the statement.

The new rail line will provide a shorter and more efficient rail route, reducing travel distance, transportation time, and associated costs.

It will also provide an alternative route to decongest the existing Wardha-Manikgarh section, supporting smoother movement of freight traffic.

The project is expected to support 6.08 MTPA of freight traffic, along with two MEMU trains in each direction per day after commissioning.

The freight traffic is expected to include coal and coke, cement, sponge iron, metal scrap, iron & steel, fertilisers and foodgrains, among other commodities.

The new line will provide direct connectivity between the coal and cement cluster and the Majri-Nanded route, facilitating shorter leads for coal, cement and RMSP traffic towards Jalna, Parbhani, Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar and other destinations in Maharashtra and Karnataka.

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Indian markets open higher tracking positive global cues; metal, realty stocks lead

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Mumbai, Sep 18: Domestic equity markets opened higher on Friday tracking positive global cues and amid buying in metal, real estate and cement sectors stocks.

Sensex opened at 74,575.24, up 260 points or 0.35 per cent, while Nifty rose 64 points or 0.28 per cent to 23,334.70.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty Metal gained the most and rose 0.76 per cent in early trade, followed by Nifty Realty which gained 0.74 per cent. Nifty Cement was up 0.55 per cent and Media trading 0.47 per cent higher.

Meanwhile, healthcare, auto, banking, pharma, energy and FMCG indices were also trading higher.

On the other hand, Nifty IT declined more than 1 per cent, while Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom fell 0.40 per cent.

From the Nifty index, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, TCS, Infosys, Tech Mahindra and HCL Technologies were top losers and declined up to declined up to 3 per cent in morning trade.

Analysts said resilience in the US market despite elevated bond yields and expectations of strong corporate earnings have supported global equities.

“The underlying strength of the economy is supporting the market which continues to be buoyant, and this strength of the mother market is supporting markets elsewhere,” they said.

On the domestic front, experts said the ongoing boom in the primary market has shifted investor attention towards IPOs and listing gains, leaving some large-cap stocks in the secondary market depressed.

“For long-term investors, this is an opportunity. Leading banks, capital goods majors, select automobiles and pharmaceutical stocks provide buying opportunities,” according to them.

Technically, the broader market structure remains weak, while the RSI at 29.95 indicates oversold momentum.

“Immediate support for the Nifty is placed at 23,000-23,150, while resistance is seen at 23,350-23,450. A decisive move beyond the resistance zone could signal a stronger recovery, while a break below support may keep the corrective trend intact,” the analysts said.

In addition, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers on Thursday, offloading equities worth Rs 3,208 crore, according to provisional exchange data. While domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continued to provide support and bought equities worth Rs 3,617 crore.

Additionally, global cues remained positive.

Overnight on Thursday US markets ended higher as the S&P 500 closed 1.14 per cent higher and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 1.69 per cent.

In Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei was up nearly 2 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained almost 1 per cent. South Korea’s KOSPI surged more than 2 per cent.

On the commodities front, international benchmark Brent crude declined 1 per cent to $103.61 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was around $101 a barrel, down 0.77 per cent.

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Petroleum dealers seek exemption from MDR on fuel sales

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New Delhi, Sep 17: Representatives of the All India Petroleum Dealers Association (AIPDA) met senior officials of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas on Thursday to discuss their demand for exemption from the merchant discount rate (MDR) on UPI transactions on fuel sales at petrol pumps.

The dealers’ body said in a statement that the issue was discussed with senior officials of the Petroleum Ministry as the additional MDR cost could put pressure on dealer margins, as retail fuel sales are made on prescribed commissions.

The new UPI framework levies an MDR of Rs 5 per transaction on petrol and diesel purchases above Rs 2,000. Such transactions account for around 30-40 per cent of total purchases across retail outlets in the country, according to dealers.

Petroleum Ministry officials sought to explain the rationale behind introducing MDR, which was required to support the development of the next layer of India’s UPI digital infrastructure.

“Petroleum dealers have been at the forefront of adopting digital payments and have worked closely with the government to promote their use across the country,” the AIPDA said.

The association said it expects to continue the dialogue with the government.

“We look forward to continuing the dialogue towards a mutually beneficial solution for consumers, petroleum dealers, and all stakeholders in India’s UPI ecosystem,” the statement said.

Dealers have raised concerns as digital payments have become an important mode of payment at petrol pumps, particularly for higher-value purchases.

Petroleum dealers have sought a complete exemption for fuel retail transactions, citing the nature of their business and the impact of MDR-related costs on their margins.

The Finance Ministry clarified that MDR is neither a tax nor a charge collected by the government or NPCI. It is distributed among payment ecosystem participants, including banks and payment application providers, to support the operation and continued expansion of the UPI ecosystem.

Transactions above Rs 2,000 in essential and thin-margin sectors, including railways, telecommunications, insurance, fuel and agricultural inputs, will attract a flat MDR of Rs 5 per transaction. The flat charge will provide cost certainty for critical public services and businesses operating on narrow margins.

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