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India-US trade negotiations key to boost stock market sentiment: Experts

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New Delhi, April 5: The new financial year (FY26) has commenced on a subdued note, largely driven by the imposition of higher-than-anticipated tariffs by the US, market experts said on Saturday, adding that any constructive developments arising from the ongoing India–US bilateral trade negotiations could serve as a supportive catalyst for the market.

Sectors like IT and metals have underperformed relative to the broader market, reflecting growing concerns over the outlook for the US economy and potential retaliatory trade actions by other countries.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited, investors are expected to closely monitor any countermeasures implemented by global trade partners, which could further exacerbate geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

This cautious sentiment is reflected in the sustained rally in gold and bond prices, underscoring a pronounced shift toward safe-haven assets.

Meanwhile, benchmark indices extended their losing streak to a second session on Friday, falling over a per cent each, as a risk-off sentiment took over global markets amid fears of a trade war on the back of US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, according to a Bajaj Broking Research note.

Nifty was down 345.65 points or 1.49 per cent at 22,904.45. Investors fear that aggressive trade policies by US would lead to retaliatory measures from other countries, escalating into a full-scale trade war. Such an outcome could disrupt global supply chains and slow economic growth.

The broader markets witnessed sharp decline, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Small cap 100 declining by 2.91 per cent and 3.56 per cent, respectively. All the sectoral indices traded with sharp cuts, with the IT, Auto, Pharma, PSU Bank, Realty, Oil and Gas and metals gauges losing 6 per cent to 3 per cent.

Index is currently placed around the key support area of 22,700-22,800, holding above the same will be crucial for pullback to materialise towards last week high 23,565 in coming week.

“Failure to hold above the support area of 22,700 can lead to extended decline towards 22,300 levels. Along with the development on US tariff policies, market participant will also keep a close eye on the RBI monetary policy outcome and resumption of Q4 FY25 earnings season in the coming week,” said Bajaj Broking Research.

Investor attention is also firmly fixed on the upcoming MPC meeting, with the benchmark interest rate decision expected next week.

A favourable outcome could benefit rate-sensitive sectors. In addition, key macroeconomic indicators — namely India’s inflation figures and US jobless claims — will be closely watched, as they are likely to offer critical insights into the underlying economic conditions in both regions, said experts.

Meanwhile, market focus is gradually shifting toward the upcoming corporate earnings season. The initial outlook remains subdued, with the risk of further downward revisions to earnings growth, largely due to tepid demand and continued margin pressures.

Business

Sensex, Nifty open marginally down amid negative global cues

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Mumbai, Nov 21: Indian benchmark indices opened in mild red zone on Friday, amid negative global cues and fading investor hopes of a US Fed rate cut in December.

As of 9.25 am, Sensex declined 80 points, or 0.09 per cent at 85,551 and Nifty dipped 15 points, or 0.05 per cent to 25,860.

The broadcap indices performed in line with the benchmarks, with the Nifty Midcap 100 down 0.30 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 dipped 0.34 per cent.

TCS, Asian Paints and NTPC were among the major gainers in the Nifty Pack, while losers included Hindalco, Shriram Finance, Tata Steel and ICICI Bank.

All the sectoral indices on NSE were trading in red except Nifty Auto (up 0.30 per cent). Nifty Metal down 0.79 per cent was the biggest loser.

Analysts said that India will gain if the AI trade slows down and capital begins to shift into non-AI stocks in emerging markets.

All of the major Asia-Pacific markets fell in early trading sessions after US AI and tech stocks shed value and investors lost hopes of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

The volatility of the market has increased evident by Nasdaq, the barometer of AI trading, ending the day down 2.15 per cent, crashing 4.4 per cent from the intraday peak.

“This type of market movement indicates that there will be more volatility in the future. AI stock prices may see fresh buying at lower valuations. We will need to wait and observe the course of this unstable period,” an analyst said.

The US markets ended in the red zone overnight, as Nasdaq slipped 2.16 per cent, the S&P 500 dropped 1.56 per cent, and the Dow declined 0.84 per cent.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index dipped 1.71 per cent, and Shenzhen dipped 2.52 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei dipped 2.31 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 2.17 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 3.94 per cent.

On Thursday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 284 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 824 crore.

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Indian city gas distribution firms’ operating profit to rise 8-12 pc this fiscal

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New Delhi, Nov 20: City gas distribution (CGD) companies in India are projected to clock an operating profit of Rs 7.2–7.5 per standard cubic metre (scm) this fiscal — up 8-12 per cent compared with the second half of last fiscal when margins dropped because of a sudden and steep decline in gas allocation under the administered price mechanism (APM) for the compressed natural gas (CNG) segment, a report said on Thursday.

Consequently, distributors had to take recourse to the spot gas market for supply, which exerted upward pressure on cost. The companies have, thereafter, transitioned to contracted supplies, which is expected to burnish margins.

“Healthy earnings will keep leverage in check despite the proposed capital expenditure (capex) by companies. Our assessment of seven CGD companies, with 70 per cent share of total sales volume last fiscal, indicates as much,” Crisil Ratings said in its report.

CGD companies get gas on priority at lower prices under the APM from legacy gas fields to serve the domestic CNG and piped natural gas-domestic (PNG-D) segments.

Beyond APM, they procure high-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT) gas and imported regasified liquefied natural gas (R-LNG) under contracted and spot purchase mechanisms.

According to the report, in the second half of the last fiscal, APM gas allocated to the CNG segment was reduced to less than 40 per cent of the total CNG requirement, compared with 70 per cent in the first half of the last fiscal.

This led to a substantial increase in gas procurement costs as companies relied on spot purchases, which were 80-100 per cent more expensive than those under APM prices, to protect against supply disruptions.

As a result, spot purchases by volume rose to more than 15 per cent of total supplies from 5 per cent in the first half of the last fiscal.

“Against the 30 per cent reduction in APM allocation for the CNG segment, CGD companies got 15-20 per cent long-term allocations from domestic new well gas, mainly towards the end of last fiscal or early this fiscal. For the balance, they have signed additional medium- and long-term contracts, mainly for HPHT gas and R-LNG,” said Ankit Hakhu, Director, Crisil Ratings.

This will not only improve gas security but also reduce exposure to the spot market, where prices are 25-30 per cent higher on average, he added.

The report noted that realisations are steady this fiscal, following some increase in the second half of last fiscal when companies implemented price hikes to pass on increased costs to consumers, albeit partially and gradually.

However, some of the benefits of reduced gas procurement costs in the current fiscal year will be offset by an increase in other operating costs. These costs will rise as players continue to incur capex to expand gas infrastructure in existing and new geographical areas (GAs) to support volume growth.

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Groww shares drop over 9 pc, slip below Rs 1 lakh crore market cap

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Mumbai, Nov 20: Groww’s share price continued to fall for the second day in a row on Thursday as investors booked profits after the stock’s strong rally last week.

The shares slipped as much as 9 per cent during early trade, touching an intra-day low of Rs 154.10 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE).

This is a 9.29 per cent drop from the previous day’s close.

During early trade, the market value of Billionbrains Garage Ventures — Groww’s parent company — fell to Rs 97,431.70 crore, slipping below the Rs 1 lakh crore mark.

The decline follows Wednesday’s sharp fall, when the stock hit the 10 per cent lower circuit on both the BSE and NSE, ending a five-day winning streak.

It closed at Rs 169.94 on the BSE and Rs 169.89 on the NSE in the previous trading session.

On Wednesday, the exchanges also revised Groww’s price band from 20 per cent to 10 per cent, limiting how much the stock can move in a single session.

The next key event for the stock is on Friday, November 21, when the company will announce its quarterly results — its first earnings report since listing last week.

Earlier, in a filing to the stock exchanges, Groww said its Board of Directors will meet on Friday, November 21, 2025, to consider and approve the unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results for the quarter and half year ended September 30, 2025.

Another important trigger is expected on December 10, when the one-month lock-in period for shareholders ends.

Groww, founded in 2016, is currently India’s largest stockbroker with more than 12.6 million active clients and a market share of over 26 percent as of June 2025.

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