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India on course for 9% GDP growth in FY22, 3rd wave still a concern

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GDP

The high GDP growth despite low base of last year has given confidence that the Indian economy may well grow over 9 per cent in FY22 with tailwinds coming from rapid recovery of manufacturing and construction sectors.

The data released by the Union Ministry of Statistics on Tuesday showed that the country’s GDP has recovered swiftly to clock a growth of 20.1 per cent in the April-June quarter of FY22 as against a contraction of 24.4 per cent seen in the same period of previous year.

Though the Q1 growth is a tad lower than RBI’s expectation of 21.4 per cent growth, it is still on course to make a good recovery taking the economy back to its pre-Covid size.

According to a Bank of Baroda economic research, GDP is expected to grow at 9.7 per cent in FY22. The improving pace of vaccinations, government tax collections, exports and corporate investments in select sectors are a tailwind for growth, it has said.

Taking a similar line, a report by Kotak Institutional Equities expects GDP growth of 9 per cent in FY22 against RBI’s own projections of 9.5 per cent growth. But the brokerage has cautioned that growth momentum may get disrupted if a third wave of the pandemic comes before a larger population gets fully vaccinated. Furthermore, one of the key drivers of growth in CYTD21 has been robust external demand, which risks slowing given the increasing Covid cases globally.

Additionally, surging freight costs and container shortages amid logistic bottlenecks pose downside risks to growth. So may be the pressure of lower agricultural yield this year in wake of projections of lower than normal monsoon.

Agriculture sector has been pandemic resilient. Its output is 8 per cent above pre-pandemic level. A below normal monsoon poses a risk to its growth in FY22.

But according to BoB research manufacturing and construction activity are likely to do well on the back of exports and government spending. Contact intensive services sector is likely to recover with a lag and rising infections in certain states pose a risk to services recovery.

Business

US tariffs pose major headwinds, need to diversify supply chains: BOK chief

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Seoul, April 24: South Korea’s top central banker has said global trade tensions sparked by the United States’ sweeping tariff policy are a major headwind for the country’s export-driven economy, and the issue will likely accelerate its efforts to diversify supply chains.

Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Rhee Chang-yong made the assessment during an interview with CNBC in Washington, where he is attending meetings of the Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers and central bank chiefs, as well as International Monetary Fund–World Bank Group (IMF-WBG) meetings, reports Yonhap news agency.

“We are an export-oriented economy. So the trade tension, definitely, too is large headwinds. We will be affected directly by the U.S. tariffs, and also indirectly to its tariff to other countries. For example, our semiconductor production in Vietnam, car and electronics production in Mexico and our battery production in Canada will be affected,” Rhee said.

“I really hope this trade tension will dissipate, because it’s bad for everybody,” he added.

But South Korea has “some strengths” to manage the issue, as the country has been “luckily” diversifying its supply chains, particularly from China, over the last several years amid growing competition from China and some political issues between the two nations.

“This is a kind of natural movement to diversify our supply chain and also move up to the value chain. So that will continue, but at the same time, the recent trade tension will probably expedite the move,” Rhee said.

Speaking of economic growth, Rhee said it is hard to present a growth outlook due to high uncertainties surrounding the U.S. tariff policy.

“At this moment, I don’t know what kind of trade tension scenarios we have to assume as a baseline or reference scenarios,” Rhee said. “I may have a better idea after tariff talks with the U.S. tomorrow.

South Korea and the U.S. are set to hold tariff talks in Washington on Thursday (U.S. time), as the Donald Trump administration has put on hold the implementation of 25 percent reciprocal tariffs on South Korean imports for 90 days.

South Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.2 percent in the January-March period from the previous quarter, according to the BOK’s preliminary data released in the day.

The BOK earlier expected the South Korean economy to expand 1.5 percent this year, but Rhee later said the outlook seemed “too optimistic” and the central bank will come up with its adjusted figure in May.

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Crime

‘Rise against your govt, army for encouraging terrorism,’ Sunni cleric’s appeal to Pakistanis

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Lucknow, April 24: In a strong condemnation of the Pahalgam terror attack, senior Sunni cleric and Imam of Aishbagh Eidgah, Maulana Khalid Rashid Firangi Mahali, on Thursday called on the people of Pakistan to rise against their government and military for facilitating acts of terror on Indian soil.

The remarks come after 26 people, most of them tourists, were gunned down in a brutal targeted terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam on Tuesday.

The Resistance Front, a Pakistan-based terror outfit and offshoot of the proscribed Lashkar-e-Taiba, is suspected to be behind the massacre.

Speaking to Media, Firangi Mahali said, “The people of Pakistan should understand that no one will support such activities. They should raise their voices against their own government and army, which are encouraging these acts of terrorism.”

The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, announced a series of stringent measures in response to the attack.

These include the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, closure of the Attari-Wagah border, cancellation of the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) for Pakistani nationals, expulsion of Pakistan’s military attaches from New Delhi and a reduction in diplomatic staff at both High Commissions.

Calling these actions “necessary and timely,” Firangi Mahali stated, “The horrific incident of terrorism in Pahalgam has been condemned in the harshest terms. This tragic event has shaken the entire country. The steps taken by the Government of India — whether on the water agreement, diplomatic expulsions, or visa cancellations — are absolutely appropriate.”

Appealing for national unity, he urged political parties to come together on a single platform in support of the government’s decisions.

“This is not the time for political division. All parties must stand united so that a positive image of national solidarity is conveyed internationally,” he said.

The cleric also warned against communalising the tragedy. “My appeal to fellow Indians is not to view this terror incident through a religious lens. No religion condones violence or terrorism,” he said.

“Some of the posts circulating on social media are sending out a very negative message. In this hour of crisis, every Indian — regardless of religion or political affiliation — must stand together,” he added.

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International

Vile, senseless act: Global condemnation pours after Pahalgam terror attack (Ld)

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New Delhi, April 23: Condolences poured in from across the globe following the ghastly Pahalgam terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir that left 16 dead and dozens injured.

The attack, which occurred on Tuesday in the picturesque Baisaran Valley, saw terrorists emerge from surrounding forests and indiscriminately open fire on a group of tourists, leaving dozens injured in addition to the fatalities.

Unequivocally condemning the barbaric attack on innocent tourists, Nepal said that it stands in steadfast solidarity with the Government and people of India in this time of sorrow.

The Foreign Ministry of Nepal stated, “We extend our deepest condolences to the bereaved families and express our sincere wishes for the swift and full recovery of those injured.”

“In line with our firm and principled position, Nepal condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and believes that such heinous acts of terrorism cannot and should not be justified on any ground,” the ministry added.

Meanwhile, Nepal’s Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba took to her social media and expressed deep shock and sadness at the heinous terrorist attack that took place in Pahalgam, Kashmir.

“We strongly condemn this act of terrorism and the senseless violence that has claimed innocent lives. Our thoughts and prayers are with the victims and their families during this difficult time, and we wish a swift and full recovery to those who have been injured. Nepal stands in steadfast solidarity with the Government and people of India in this time of sorrow,” she posted

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also condemned the horrific terror attack, stating that violence can not be justified.

“I am shocked by the horrific terror attack on innocent civilians in Jammu and Kashmir overnight. There is no justification for this violence, and Australia condemns it. Our hearts go out to the injured, to those mourning loved ones, and to everyone in Australia touched by this terrible news.”

Calling the horrific attack in Kashmir “utterly devastating,” UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer took to social media and posted, “The horrific terrorist attack in Kashmir is utterly devastating. My thoughts are with those affected, their loved ones, and the people of India.”

President of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen also offered her deepest condolences over the “vile” terror attack.

“The vile terror attack in Pahalgam today stole so many innocent lives. My deepest condolences to PM Narendra Modi and every Indian heart grieving today. Yet I know that India’s spirit is unbreakable. You will stand strong in this ordeal. And Europe will stand with you.”

Furthermore, the Ambassador of the European Union to India, Herve Delphin, stated that the EU stands against all forms and terrorism.

“Deeply shocked & saddened by the despicable Pahalgam terrorist attack against innocent tourists. Our deepest condolences to the families of the victims & best wishes of recovery to those injured. The EU stands against all forms of terrorism.”

Ono Keiichi, Ambassador of Japan to India, expressed deepest condolences and condemned the act of terrorism.

“I offer my deepest condolences to the victims of the terrorist attack in Pahalgam today. Japan strongly condemns any and all acts of terrorism. We stand firmly with India,” the Japanese Ambassador said.

Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also extended heartfelt condolences on the terrorist attack and condemned terrorism in all its forms.

“Deeply saddened by the heinous terrorist attack in Pahalgam. I extend my heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims. Armenia strongly condemns terrorism in all its forms. Our thoughts and prayers are with the friendly people of India.”

Early reports suggest the Pakistan-based terror outfit, The Resistance Front, an offshoot of the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba, has claimed responsibility for the assault, marking one of the worst attacks in the region in recent years.

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