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India Inc revenue likely grew 18-20% on-year in 2nd quarter

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Higher commodity prices and continued revival in demand for consumer discretionary products likely lifted corporate revenue 18-20 per cent on-year to Rs 8.2 lakh crore in the second quarter of this fiscal, indicates a CRISIL Research study of 300 companies (excluding from the financial services and oil sectors) that account for 55-60 per cent of the market capitalisation of the National Stock Exchange.

Revenue from consumer discretionary products such as automobiles likely spurted 19-21 per cent on-year, aided by higher realisations and volume.

Construction-linked sectors are estimated to have grown 22-25 per cent on-year, benefiting from the low-base effect of last fiscal.

Overall revenue growth would be primarily supported by price hikes driven by costlier commodities. On-year volume growth would be mostly in single digit across key segments except commercial vehicles. To be sure, growth momentum would have slowed compared with the 47 per cent on-year increase seen in the first quarter.

On a sequential basis, overall revenue is likely to have grown 8-10 per cent.

Revenue from consumer discretionary products is expected to have risen 23-25 per cent sequentially after demand was hit by the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in the first quarter.

Construction-linked sectors are estimated to have grown a moderate 3-5 per cent as seasonal weakness slowed down execution and volume growth.

Revenue in the automobiles sector is estimated to have grown 27-30 per cent sequentially, led by an increase in realisations. That, in turn, is expected to steer growth for ancillary segments such as auto components and tyres, which have likely grown a robust 12-14 per cent and 6-10 per cent on-quarter, respectively.

Overall revenue of the sample set is expected to have risen to Rs 15.8 lakh crore in the first half of this fiscal, up 30- 32 per cent on-year.

Says Hetal Gandhi, Director, CRISIL Research, “Elevated commodity prices and healthy realisations would lead to better revenue performance across sectors in the second quarter. As many as 24 of the 40 sectors represented by these 300 companies have likely grown over 20 per cent on-year. But overall revenue growth would be a notch lower at 15-17 per cent excluding commodity sectors such as steel and aluminium. On a sequential basis, it could be even lower at 8-10 per cent, with export-linked sectors such as IT services and pharmaceuticals proving to be drags, even though growing at a stable 4-6 per cent.”

The moderation in revenue growth is expected to have trickled down to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda), which is estimated to be up an average 5-7 per cent sequentially. From an on-year perspective, that would be 24-27 per cent higher because of the low-base effect.

Consequently, operating profitability, as represented by the Ebitda margin, would have narrowed by 40-80 bps on- quarter as a complete pass-through of the sharp increase in raw material cost would not have been possible.

Nearly half of the 40 sectors are expected to log a sequential drop in Ebitda margin amid rising input prices. While overall margins may have continued to improve on-year to 100-120 bps, excluding companies in the aluminium and steel products segments, it would have contracted 30-70 bps.

“The ability of companies to pass on the surge in commodity prices is limited, which caps the rise in margins. Crude oil prices are up 71 per cent in the second quarter on-year, and steel 47 per cent. Power and fuel expenses have risen because of 2x higher coal prices and over 4x higher spot gas prices. These would add to the woes, leading to margin contraction in the power and cement sectors,” adds Hetal Gandhi.

For the first half of this fiscal, overall Ebitda margin (for 300 companies) is estimated at 22-24 per cent, marking an expansion of 200-250 bps on-year, and driven by a 380 bps expansion in the first quarter.

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Sensex, Nifty open lower as crude oil prices rise; IT and auto stocks drag

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Mumbai, Sep 8: Indian equity benchmarks opened lower on Tuesday weighed by elevated crude prices with selling in IT and auto shares amid concerns over a possible US Federal Reserve rate hike this month.

Nifty 50 opened 36.05 points or 0.15 per cent lower at 23,743.10, while Sensex fell over 150 points or 0.21 per cent to 75,970.28.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty IT and Nifty Auto were top losers and plunged up to around 1 per cent in early trade. Nifty Oil & Gas fell 0.48 per cent, followed Nifty Private Bank which declined 0.39 per cent. On the other hand, Nifty Metal rose 0.45 per cent.

The market is now in its fifth week of a slow but steady downtrend, market experts said, citing elevated crude prices, selling in IT stocks, Fed rate hike fears and liquidity being absorbed by a booming IPO market.

They said the weakness in largecap stocks despite improving fundamentals could create opportunities for investors while a possible reversion to the mean in midcap and smallcap stocks may facilitate a rally in fundamentally sound largecaps.

“Instead of trying to time the market, investors can think about changing the weightage of portfolios towards largecaps where the risk-reward is favourable,” according to them.

Technically, the Nifty is expected to find resistance at 23,860, while 23,720 is seen as an immediate downside marker. A break below that level could expose supports at 23,570 and 23,260, the analysts said.

In addition, Asian markets traded mixed in morning trade on Tuesday lacking a clear direction amid uneven regional economic data and renewed concerns over Iranian threats in the Persian Gulf.

Crude oil prices continued to climb as concerns over an extended Middle East conflict intensified after Iran warned of retaliatory action against any fresh US strikes on its assets, raising fears of potential supply disruptions.

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Maha govt forms tender committee to set up NBFC for ‘Viksit Maharashtra 2047’ credit need

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Mumbai, Sep 7: In a major move to boost its long-term development plans, the Maharashtra government on Monday constituted a specialised tendering committee to oversee the creation and operationalisation of a dedicated State financial institution.

Registered as a Non-Banking Financial Company (NBFC) with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), this entity is designed to cater to the state’s massive estimated infrastructure credit requirement of Rs 25–35 lakh crore over the next decade under the ‘Viksit Maharashtra 2047’ blueprint.

According to a Government Resolution (GR) issued by the Finance Department, the newly formed multi-disciplinary committee will drive the selection process for an expert advisory agency.

The procurement will follow a two-stage evaluation process — starting with an Expression of Interest (EoI) for shortlisting followed by a Request for Proposal (RFP) for final selection.

The initiative targets standardising funding channels to support the state’s ambitious Rs 25–35 lakh crore infrastructure push over the coming ten years.

The Maharashtra government hopes the state economy to become $1 trillion by 2029-30 and $5 trillion by 2047.

The state government’s move to raise funds worth Rs 25 to 30 lakh crore needed to achieve ‘Viksit Maharashtra 2047’ vision through NBFC is important due to constraints in raising funds during the volatile market conditions.

“Of the credit need of Rs 25-30 lakh crore, Rs 10-12 lakh crore are proposed for Metro expansion (Mumbai Metropolitan Region at Pune in Nagpur), Coastal Road extensions, Shaktipeeth and Ring Expressways, Vadhavan Port connectivity, Rs 3.5-4.5 lakh crore for Solar/wind generation, pumped storage projects, grid modernisations, and 24×7 rural water supply grids, Rs 3-4 lakh crore for AI Innovation cities, semiconductor clusters, auto/EV manufacturing zones, and logistics parks, Rs 1 lakh crore for island tourism, coastal cruises, fort conservation, and luxury resort hubs and Rs 1.5 lakh crore for the upgradation of smart villages, micro-irrigation networks, and rural cold-chain logistics.”

Stage 1 involves pre-qualification via an EoI response, while Stage 2 will consist of technical presentations and financial bidding under an request for proposal (RFP).

A four-member high level committee has been formed to ensure transparency, neutrality, and statutory compliance under the Companies Act, 2013.

The committee comprises key officials from administrative, legal, and finance sectors to maintain rigorous oversight.

The committee will be chaired by Finance Department Secretary (Financial Reforms) as Chairman/Presiding officer for administrative alignment and financial restructuring approvals, representative of law and judiciary (minimum deputy secretary rank as member (Legal) to provide legal oversight for company incorporation, Memorandum of Association and Article of Association vetting, and Companies Act compliance, expert nominated from RBI Bank or leading public sector bank to bring in specialised domain expertise in banking and NBFC operations and the Finance Department Deputy Secretary as member secretary to manage documentation, official correspondence, and state e-tendering.

The committee has been tasked with clear responsibilities throughout the procurement lifecycle to review and approve pre qualification and eligibility criteria for the expression of interest, open and verify state e-portal EoI submissions, evaluating candidate “Approach Notes”, and conducting technical presentations, finalise a shortlist of advisory firms scoring 70 marks or higher to advance to the RFP phase and oversee RFP technical/financial evaluations, analyse commercial bids, and submit final recommendations to the state government for selecting a single advisory partner agency.

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Sensex, Nifty decline 0.5 pc as IT, metal, PSU bank shares drag markets

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Mumbai, Sep 7: Indian benchmark equity indices ended lower on Monday, weighed down by sharp declines in IT, metal, PSU bank and media stocks amid escalating geopolitical tensions, volatility in oil prices and growing concerns over monetary tightening.

The Sensex fell 382.62 points, or 0.5 per cent, to close at 76,132.81, while the Nifty declined 118.55 points, or 0.5 per cent, to 23,779.15.

Commenting on Nifty technical outlook, experts said that on the upside, the 23,800 zone, which had previously acted as an important support during earlier declines, is now likely to serve as the immediate resistance level.

“However, the 24,000 mark remains the key psychological hurdle. Unless the index decisively reclaims and sustains above this level, selling pressure at higher levels is likely to persist, keeping the overall technical structure weak,” a market expert noted.

“On the downside, 23,750–23,700 zone remains the immediate support, based on today’s intraday low. A decisive closing below this level could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to the 23,600 region,” an analyst mentioned.

Selling pressure was particularly visible in several heavyweight stocks, with Infosys, SBI Life Insurance Company and HDFC Life Insurance Company emerging as the top losers on the Nifty index.

The broader market also remained subdued, although the decline was relatively contained. The Nifty MidCap index fell 0.46 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index managed to edge up 0.02 per cent.

Among sectoral indices, IT and metal stocks came under significant pressure, while PSU banks, realty and media shares also underperformed the broader market. The weakness in these sectors reflected a cautious investor mood amid concerns over the impact of geopolitical developments, fluctuations in crude oil prices and the possibility of tighter monetary conditions.

On the other hand, pharma and healthcare stocks bucked the broader trend and outperformed, providing some support to the market.

Experts said that the market remained sensitive to global developments as investors assessed the potential economic and inflationary impact of geopolitical tensions and higher oil price volatility.

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