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India Inc revenue likely grew 18-20% on-year in 2nd quarter

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Higher commodity prices and continued revival in demand for consumer discretionary products likely lifted corporate revenue 18-20 per cent on-year to Rs 8.2 lakh crore in the second quarter of this fiscal, indicates a CRISIL Research study of 300 companies (excluding from the financial services and oil sectors) that account for 55-60 per cent of the market capitalisation of the National Stock Exchange.

Revenue from consumer discretionary products such as automobiles likely spurted 19-21 per cent on-year, aided by higher realisations and volume.

Construction-linked sectors are estimated to have grown 22-25 per cent on-year, benefiting from the low-base effect of last fiscal.

Overall revenue growth would be primarily supported by price hikes driven by costlier commodities. On-year volume growth would be mostly in single digit across key segments except commercial vehicles. To be sure, growth momentum would have slowed compared with the 47 per cent on-year increase seen in the first quarter.

On a sequential basis, overall revenue is likely to have grown 8-10 per cent.

Revenue from consumer discretionary products is expected to have risen 23-25 per cent sequentially after demand was hit by the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in the first quarter.

Construction-linked sectors are estimated to have grown a moderate 3-5 per cent as seasonal weakness slowed down execution and volume growth.

Revenue in the automobiles sector is estimated to have grown 27-30 per cent sequentially, led by an increase in realisations. That, in turn, is expected to steer growth for ancillary segments such as auto components and tyres, which have likely grown a robust 12-14 per cent and 6-10 per cent on-quarter, respectively.

Overall revenue of the sample set is expected to have risen to Rs 15.8 lakh crore in the first half of this fiscal, up 30- 32 per cent on-year.

Says Hetal Gandhi, Director, CRISIL Research, “Elevated commodity prices and healthy realisations would lead to better revenue performance across sectors in the second quarter. As many as 24 of the 40 sectors represented by these 300 companies have likely grown over 20 per cent on-year. But overall revenue growth would be a notch lower at 15-17 per cent excluding commodity sectors such as steel and aluminium. On a sequential basis, it could be even lower at 8-10 per cent, with export-linked sectors such as IT services and pharmaceuticals proving to be drags, even though growing at a stable 4-6 per cent.”

The moderation in revenue growth is expected to have trickled down to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda), which is estimated to be up an average 5-7 per cent sequentially. From an on-year perspective, that would be 24-27 per cent higher because of the low-base effect.

Consequently, operating profitability, as represented by the Ebitda margin, would have narrowed by 40-80 bps on- quarter as a complete pass-through of the sharp increase in raw material cost would not have been possible.

Nearly half of the 40 sectors are expected to log a sequential drop in Ebitda margin amid rising input prices. While overall margins may have continued to improve on-year to 100-120 bps, excluding companies in the aluminium and steel products segments, it would have contracted 30-70 bps.

“The ability of companies to pass on the surge in commodity prices is limited, which caps the rise in margins. Crude oil prices are up 71 per cent in the second quarter on-year, and steel 47 per cent. Power and fuel expenses have risen because of 2x higher coal prices and over 4x higher spot gas prices. These would add to the woes, leading to margin contraction in the power and cement sectors,” adds Hetal Gandhi.

For the first half of this fiscal, overall Ebitda margin (for 300 companies) is estimated at 22-24 per cent, marking an expansion of 200-250 bps on-year, and driven by a 380 bps expansion in the first quarter.

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Sensex may face resistance at 76,300, Nifty support seen at 23,600: Analysts

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Mumbai, July 26: The benchmark equity indices are likely to remain under pressure in the coming week, with the Sensex facing immediate resistance around the 76,300 level and the Nifty expected to find crucial support near 23,600 after both indices extended losses in a volatile trading week marked by rising crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions and weak banking stocks, analysts said on Sunday.

According to experts, the Sensex surrendered the gains made in the previous week and slipped below the psychologically important 77,000 mark as geopolitical concerns and earnings-related pressures weighed on investor confidence.

“From a technical perspective, the 76,300 zone now acts as immediate resistance. On the downside, the 75,800–75,700 zone is likely to offer immediate support; a break below could open the door towards 75,500–75,400,” a market expert mentioned.

For the Nifty, analysts said the index slipped below the lower end of its month-long consolidation band of 23,800-24,400 and tested support near the rising trendline around the 23,600 level before ending the week at 23,767.45.

“A decisive breach below the 23,600 support zone could accelerate the correction towards the previous swing low of 23,100. On the upside, the 24,000–24,100 region is expected to act as the first resistance, followed by a stronger hurdle around the 24,400 mark,” a market expert mentioned.

Meanwhile, in the previous week, the Indian stock market witnessed heightened volatility as investors turned cautious amid a spike in global crude oil prices and renewed geopolitical uncertainties.

Mixed first-quarter earnings from banking companies further weighed on sentiment, while a weakening rupee and a broader risk-off mood restricted buying despite resilient domestic macroeconomic indicators and stock-specific opportunities emerging during the ongoing earnings season.

The Sensex fell 2.68 per cent over the week to settle at 76,059.77, while the Nifty declined 2.33 per cent to close at 23,767.45.

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Govt earmarks Rs 2,010 crore to boost judicial infra, eCourt modernisation

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New Delhi, July 26: The government has allocated Rs 2,010 crore to boost judicial infrastructure and digitisation of courts, including necessary training and capacity building programmes.

According to Law Minister Arjun Ram Meghwal, under the Centrally Sponsored Scheme (CSS) for Development of Infrastructure Facilities for the District and Subordinate Courts, a sum of Rs 810 crore has been allocated in the Union Budget 2026 for judicial infrastructure.

In addition, sum of Rs 1,200 crore has been allocated in the Budget for the eCourts Project Phase-III being implemented for digitisation of courts including necessary training and capacity building programmes, he said in a written reply to a question in the Lok Sabha.

Adequate budgetary provisions are made under these Schemes based on approved outlays and availability of funds.

“However, the expeditious disposal of cases depends on multiple factors including complexity of case, quality of investigation, availability of relevant evidence and presentation thereof by the Advocates, timely delivery of the court processes, active participation of the parties, judicial procedures, etc,” said the minister.

The government, in coordination with states and the judiciary, has taken several measures to ensure accessible, speedy and effective justice across the country.

Meanwhile, a Centrally Sponsored Scheme to set up Fast Track Special Courts (FTSCs), including exclusive POCSO (ePOCSO) courts was launched in October 2019, for the expeditious trial and disposal of pending cases related to rape and offences under the Protection of Children from Sexual Offences (POCSO) Act, 2012.

The scheme was extended twice, with the last extension valid up to March 31, 2026 for establishment of 790 FTSCs. The scheme has been temporarily extended upto September 30, 2026.

As per the information made available by the High Courts, as of April 30, 775 FTSCs, including 398 exclusive POCSO (e-POCSO) Courts were functional in 29 States/UTs, informed the minister.

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HDFC Bank shares fall over 1 pc as US law firms launch securities probe

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New Delhi, July 24: Shares of India’s largest private sector lender, HDFC Bank, fell more than 1 per cent in early trade on Friday after three US law firms announced separate investigations into whether the bank may have violated federal securities laws.

The investigations were announced by the Law Offices of Howard G. Smith, the Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz and Glancy Prongay Wolke & Rotter through separate press releases.

According to the law firms, the investigations are focused on whether HDFC Bank and certain of its executives made materially misleading statements or failed to disclose information relevant to investors, potentially violating US federal securities laws.

The probes stem from a May 27 report by The Indian Express — which alleged that HDFC Bank made payments of about Rs 45 crore (Rs 450 million or around $4.7 million) to the Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation (MSRDC) to attract large institutional deposits.

The report also alleged that the payments were booked as marketing expenses and that the bank’s Chief Executive Officer was aware of them.

According to the law firms, HDFC Bank’s American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) fell $1.02, or 4.1 per cent, to close at $23.78 on May 27 following the publication of the report.

The firms have invited investors who suffered losses in HDFC Bank ADRs to contact them and share relevant information as they assess whether there are sufficient grounds to pursue securities-related claims.

However, no securities class action lawsuit has been filed against HDFC Bank at this stage. The investigations are preliminary and are intended to determine whether legal action is warranted.

However, the lender has not issued any statement on the matter to the stock exchanges — the NSE and the BSE — till 10:30 am.

On Friday, HDFC Bank shares fell as much as 1.44 per cent during early trade on the BSE. The stock has declined more than 25 per cent over the past one year, nearly 20 per cent in the last six months, and around 25 per cent so far this calendar year.

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