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High commodity prices continue to weigh on trade deficit, estimate for FY23 at $90bn: Acuite

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The expectation of the expansion of the current account deficit is not just driven by elevated global commodity prices, but is also linked to the unlocking of the economy reviving pent-up demand and improved vaccination cover aiding an organic recovery in the economy, ratings and research firm Acuite Ratings & Research said in a report.

Nevertheless, there is considerable uncertainty in projecting trade and current account deficit due to high volatility in commodity prices, which in the current environment is taking cues from unpredictable geopolitical events.

“Given, the relentless rise in commodity prices particularly crude oil which has again risen to $120 per barrel, we project current account deficit (CAD) to widen to more than $90 billion (in FY23) from an estimated $47 billion in FY22,” the report said.

India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to a record high level of $23.3 billion in May 2022 from a deficit of $20.1 billion in April, the report said citing the Ministry of Commerce and Industry’s preliminary data.

On the other hand, imports increased slightly to $60.6 billion in May from $60.3 billion in the previous month, given the rising crude oil bill.

Notably, India’s share of oil imports from Russia has increased from 2 per cent to nearly 25 per cent since the onslaught of the geopolitical crisis, with India taking advantage of competitive pricing with an aim to fulfil its heavy oil needs, it said.

“On the exports front, the moderation was driven by non-oil exports while oil exports eased a tad in May-22. On a sectoral basis, commodities such as petroleum products, electronic goods, chemicals, and engineering goods remained strong in May-22.”

The report further said that the evolving global geopolitical dynamics, and policy support through targeted incentive structures like the production-linked incentive schemes and strategic trade partnerships (such as India-Australia trade agreement, and India-UAE trade pact) would also continue to support exports, besides the inorganic expansion via price effect.

That said, some normalisation in growth is likely in the coming quarters on deceleration in global demand, the report added.

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Top 10 firms add nearly Rs 93,000 crore in market value last week

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Mumbai, July 12: The combined market valuation of four of India’s 10 most-valued companies increased by Rs 92,995.48 crore during the last week, with HDFC Bank and Bharti Airtel emerging as the biggest gainers, even as the broader equity market ended lower.

During the week, the Sensex declined 194.52 points, or 0.25 per cent, while the Nifty slipped 63.95 points, or 0.26 per cent.

Among the country’s 10 most-valued companies, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, and Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) registered gains in their market capitalisation.

In contrast, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India (SBI), Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Bajaj Finance, Larsen & Toubro (L&T), and Hindustan Unilever together witnessed an erosion of Rs 49,294.13 crore in their market valuation.

HDFC Bank recorded the largest increase in market capitalisation during the week, with its valuation rising by Rs 35,808.09 crore to Rs 12,69,454.42 crore.

Bharti Airtel followed closely, adding Rs 34,896.92 crore to take its market valuation to Rs 11,98,774.22 crore.

LIC’s market capitalisation rose by Rs 16,065.5 crore to Rs 5,60,205.05 crore, while Reliance Industries added Rs 6,224.97 crore, taking its valuation to Rs 17,71,206.33 crore.

On the losing side, Hindustan Unilever registered the steepest decline, with its market capitalisation falling by Rs 12,088.65 crore to Rs 5,04,997.65 crore.

Larsen & Toubro’s valuation declined by Rs 11,040.23 crore to Rs 5,42,938.40 crore, while TCS lost Rs 8,574.87 crore in market value, ending the week at Rs 7,48,600.40 crore.

Bajaj Finance saw its market capitalisation shrink by Rs 7,813.58 crore to Rs 6,35,327.78 crore. ICICI Bank’s valuation slipped by Rs 6,315.32 crore to Rs 10,05,379.71 crore, while SBI’s market value declined by Rs 3,461.48 crore to Rs 9,56,430.44 crore.

Despite the mixed performance, Reliance Industries retained its position as India’s most-valued company by market capitalisation. It was followed by HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, TCS, Bajaj Finance, LIC, Larsen & Toubro and Hindustan Unilever.

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Piyush Goyal to lead business delegation to Spain, Belgium and Finland to deepen trade, investment ties

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New Delhi, July 12: Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal will lead a high-level Indian business delegation on a five-day visit to Spain, Belgium and Finland from July 13 to 17, as India seeks to deepen its economic engagement with Europe through enhanced cooperation in trade, investment, technology, innovation and sustainability, it was announced on Sunday.

The delegation will include leading Indian companies from sectors such as advanced manufacturing, clean energy, digital technologies, gems and jewellery, food processing, healthcare and design. The visit is aimed at expanding business-to-business partnerships and exploring new opportunities for collaboration with European industries, the Ministry of Commerce & Industry said.

The visit will begin in Spain on July 13, where Goyal will participate in a business roundtable jointly organised by the Chamber of Commerce of Spain, CEOE and ICEX Spain Trade & Investment. The discussions are expected to focus on sectors including automotive, renewable energy, railways, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, food processing and tourism.

The meeting will bring together industry leaders from both countries at a time when India and Spain are celebrating the Spain-India Dual Year 2026, marking 70 years of diplomatic relations. Several Spanish companies, including Iberdrola, Acciona, CAF, Talgo, Gestamp and Indra, have already established a strong presence in India, while Indian technology and engineering firms such as TCS, Infosys, Wipro, Tech Mahindra and Larsen & Toubro are expanding their operations in Spain to support digital transformation and Industry 4.0 initiatives.

In Belgium, where the delegation will travel on July 14 and 15, the minister will visit the Port of Antwerp to study Europe’s leading logistics hub and gain insights into multimodal connectivity, green logistics and resilient supply chains.

During the Belgium visit, Goyal will hold CEO-level meetings with senior executives of Thales Group and Silox Group.

The minister will also participate in the India-EU Business Roundtable and the Trade and Technology Council (TTC) Plenary, where discussions will cover foreign direct investment, trade facilitation, sustainable technologies and resilient supply chains.

The final leg of the tour will take the delegation to Finland on July 16 and 17. Goyal will participate in the India-Finland Business Roundtable, engaging with Finnish companies across digitalisation, clean energy, advanced manufacturing and the circular economy.

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Q1 earnings, crude oil trends likely to drive Dalal Street next week

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Mumbai, July 12: Investors will closely track the ongoing Q1 FY27 earnings season, movement in crude oil prices, foreign fund flows and developments in West Asia next week after the Indian stock market ended its four-week winning streak amid heightened geopolitical tensions and volatile global cues.

Benchmark indices closed the week with marginal losses as renewed tensions in West Asia and a spike in crude oil prices dented investor sentiment.

However, a strong recovery in the final two trading sessions, supported by easing global concerns and robust earnings from Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), helped limit the losses.

The Sensex declined 0.25 per cent during the week to settle at 77,569.39, while the Nifty slipped 0.26 per cent to close at 24,206.90.

In contrast, broader markets remained resilient, with both the midcap and smallcap indices gaining more than one per cent.

Market participants are expected to keep a close watch on the June quarter earnings season, which has begun on a positive note following TCS’ better-than-expected financial performance. The upcoming earnings announcements from several major companies will be crucial in determining the market’s near-term direction.

Geopolitical developments in West Asia will also remain in focus. Investor sentiment turned cautious during the week after fresh US strikes on Iran heightened concerns over regional stability and global energy supplies. Any further escalation or signs of de-escalation are likely to influence risk appetite across global markets.

Crude oil prices will continue to be another key monitorable. Oil prices eased towards the end of the week amid expectations that the US and Iran would continue diplomatic engagement despite renewed hostilities and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The trajectory of crude prices remains critical for India, a major oil importer, as sustained increases could raise inflationary pressures and impact corporate profitability.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net buyers through most of the week, investing around Rs 4,670 crore on a net basis.

The continued foreign inflows, aided by softer crude prices and improving global risk sentiment, provided support to domestic equities despite intermittent volatility.

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