Business
Heatwave, reduced wheat production credit negative for India: Moody’s Investors Service
High climatic temperatures affecting northwest India curbing wheat production and possible extended power outages exacerbating already high inflation and hurting growth is credit negative, said Moody’s Investors Service on Monday.
The credit rating agency in a report said: “Over the longer term, India’s highly negative credit exposure to physical climate risks — which contributes to the country’s highly negative environmental risk issuer profile score and credit impact score — means its economic growth will likely become more volatile as it faces increasing, and more extreme, incidences of climate-related shocks,” Moody’s said.
The Indian government has revised down its estimates for wheat production by 5.4 per cent to 105 million tonnes for the crop year ending June 2022, given lower yields amid higher temperatures, Moody’s said.
The lower production, and fears that a surge in exports to capitalise on high global wheat prices would add to inflationary pressures domestically, has prompted the government to ban the export of wheat and to divert it toward local consumption instead.
Although the move will partially offset inflationary pressures, it will hurt exports and subsequently growth. The ban comes at a time when India — the world’s second-largest wheat producer — could have been capitalising on the global output gap from wheat following the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, Moody’s said.
Global wheat prices have jumped 47 per cent since the conflict began in late February.
According to Moody’s, the wheat export ban is likely to induce further surge in wheat prices in importing countries like Bangladesh, which absorbed 56.8 per cent of India’s wheat exports in fiscal 2021, Sri Lanka-8.3 per cent, UAE – 6.5 per cent and Indonesia – 5.4 per cent.
Additionally, elevated power demand amid the heatwave and an uptick in economic activity — resulting in higher domestic power prices — prompted India’s Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) to cap power prices at Rs 12 per kilowatt-hour in the electricity exchanges.
With suppliers importing coal at market rates to fill the shortfall and inadequate supply to meet peak demand, at least 16 out of 28 states experienced 2-10 hours of power outage per day in April, Moody’s said.
After the price ceiling was introduced on April 1, India’s total domestic coal actual stock fell 23 per cent by mid-May, with days of actual stock declining to 7.8 days from 10 days.
Further drawdowns in coal inventory could lead to prolonged power outages in industrial and agricultural production, leading to significant cuts to output and weighing further on India’s economic growth — particularly if the heatwaves continue beyond June.
Inflation will be partially alleviated by keeping wheat production for domestic consumption and the cap in power prices in exchanges, as well as the Reserve Bank of India’s 40-basis-point policy rate rise in early May.
However, given the prominence of cereals and food more generally in India’s consumption, elevated food prices could add to social risks if they persist.
Business
Crude oil prices fall up to 2 pc, head for steep weekly losses

New Delhi, June 26: Global crude oil prices fell sharply on Friday and were on track to post steep weekly losses as easing supply concerns in the Strait of Hormuz outweighed fresh geopolitical tensions following an attack on a cargo vessel near Oman.
International oil benchmark Brent crude futures fell $1.51 or 2 per cent, to $73.75 a barrel in early trade.
Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined $1.50 or about 2 per cent to $70.42 a barrel.
Both benchmark contracts had gained more than 2 per cent in the previous session after a cargo vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile near Oman, prompting the United Nations’ shipping agency to suspend its voluntary evacuation programme.
According to media reports, two US officials said Iran had fired on the cargo vessel as it attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian authorities, however, said the security of ships sailing outside designated Hormuz routes could not be guaranteed.
Despite the latest security concerns, Brent and WTI were both headed for weekly losses of nearly 7 per cent as fears of supply disruptions eased following an improvement in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude shipments through the strategic waterway rose this week to their highest level since the US-Israel conflict with Iran began in February, after a ceasefire helped reopen the route. However, overall vessel traffic remained well below the pre-conflict average of around 125 ships per day.
The Indian basket of crude oil — a weighted average of Brent Dated, Oman and Dubai crude grades imported by domestic refiners — averaged $86.31 per barrel in June so far, after surging during the West Asia conflict. The basket had averaged $106.23 per barrel in May and $114.48 per barrel in April.
Global benchmark Brent crude, which had touched around $120 per barrel at the peak of the conflict, is now hovering near $74 per barrel.
Business
Stock markets remain closed on account of Muharram

Mumbai, June 26: Indian stock exchanges — the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the BSE — remained closed on Friday on account of Muharram, with trading suspended across all equity market segments, including equity derivatives, currency derivatives, securities lending and borrowing (SLB).
Meanwhile, in the commodity segment, the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) remained closed during the morning session from 9 am to 5 pm.
Trading on the commodity exchange will resume in the evening session from 5 pm.
In addition, the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) — which primarily deals in agricultural commodities — remained closed for the entire day.
Following Friday’s Muharram holiday, the stock market will remain open for nearly three months before the next scheduled holiday on September 14 for Ganesh Chaturthi.
Thereafter, the bourses will remain closed on October 2 (Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti), October 20 (Dussehra), November 10 (Diwali-Balipratipada), November 24 (Prakash Gurpurb Sri Guru Nanak Dev) and December 25 (Christmas).
In the last session, the equity benchmarks ended their two-session winning streak on a positive note despite paring most of their intraday gains due to profit booking in IT and metal stocks.
Sensex settled over 100 points or 0.14 per cent higher at 77,100.47 after touching an intraday high of 77,803.18.
Similarly, Nifty ended higher, with an increase of 34.35 points or 0.14 per cent at 24,056.
Among Nifty constituents, Hindalco Industries, Power Grid, Bharti Airtel, ONGC, Infosys, NTPC, BEL, HCL Tech, HDFC Life, Asian Paints, Trent, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel and Titan were top losers.
Moreover, the broader markets underperformed, with Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices declining 0.5 per cent each.
As the holiday falls on a Friday, market participants will enjoy a three-day weekend, with trading set to resume on Monday, June 29.
Business
Indian markets open higher as crude oil prices hover near $70 mark

Mumbai, June 25: Indian stock markets opened higher on Thursday as crude oil prices eased towards the $70-per-barrel mark, with tankers resuming their exit from the Strait of Hormuz following an initial peace deal between the US and Iran.
Sensex started the session up 400 points or 0.52 per cent at 77,391.07, while Nifty opened at 24,125.85, gaining over 100 points or 0.43 per cent.
Most sectoral indices traded in positive territory, led by Nifty Realty and Nifty Auto, gained up to 1 per cent.
Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty IT, Nifty Pharma, Nifty Oil & Gas, Nifty FMCG and Nifty Private Bank indices also advanced.
However, Nifty Metal was the lone major sectoral loser, declining 0.56 per cent.
From the Nifty pack, Hindalco Industries, Eternal, Bharat Electronics, Power Grid Corporation, ONGC, Infosys, Titan, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, ITC, Asian Paints and Coal India were among the top losers in early trade.
Category-wise, Nifty Microcap 250 gained 0.87 per cent, Nifty Midcap 100 rose 0.63 per cent, Nifty Midcap 50 advanced 0.61 per cent, and Nifty Smallcap 500 climbed 0.59 per cent.
Meanwhile, India VIX — the market’s fear gauge — slipped nearly 3 per cent to 13, indicating easing volatility.
According to analysts, the technical undertone remains positive as long as the Nifty sustains above the 24,000 mark. Immediate support is placed at 23,900, followed by the 23,790-23,750 zone if profit-booking intensifies.
“On the upside, the 24,090-24,150 zone remains the key resistance area, and a decisive breakout above this supply zone could trigger fresh short-covering, paving the way for a move towards 24,300,” they said.
Analysts further noted that supportive global cues and lower crude oil prices favour further gains, although traders should remain watchful of expiry-related volatility and evolving global monetary policy expectations.
Meanwhile, international benchmark Brent crude declined about 2 per cent to around $72 a barrel. Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 1.83 per cent to trade below the $70-per-barrel mark.
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