India-focused private credit assets under management (AUM) projected to increase to $56-65 billion by 2030 from $21.8 billion in CY2025, representing nearly threefold increase and a compound annual growth rate of about 21-24 per cent, a report said on Wednesday.

The report from CareEdge Ratings said India’s private credit market remains at an early stage of development, with penetration of only 0.6 per cent of GDP, compared with 4.4 per cent in the United States and 8.4 per cent in the United Kingdom, indicating substantial room for long-term growth.

India’s credit-to-GDP ratio, which typically ranges between 90 per cent and 102 per cent, rose from 93.8 per cent in 2023 to 95.3 per cent in 2024 and 102.3 per cent in 2025, after declining to 88.3 per cent in 2022.

By comparison, developed economies such as the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia maintain credit-to-GDP ratios of between 140 per cent and 200 per cent.

Private credit is addressing the funding gap for mid-market, growth-stage and asset-light businesses underserved by traditional lenders, with growth being driven by tighter bank lending norms, increasing demand for bespoke financing solutions, a large refinancing opportunity, and strengthening insolvency and recovery framework.

“India’s Private Credit market is expected to reach $56-65 billion by 2030, supported by growing corporate demand for flexible capital beyond standardised lending products. Direct lending, venture debt, special situations and real-estate credit are expected to drive this expansion,” says Tanvi Shah, Senior Director, CareEdge Advisory.

Shah said disciplined underwriting, risk-adjusted pricing and strong covenant protection will be critical to converting market growth into sustainable returns

“Private credit is poised to coexist with, rather than replace, traditional lending channels, strengthening the financing ecosystem through flexible, customised solutions for underserved borrowers,” said Kalpesh Mantri, Assistant Director, CareEdge Advisory.

Direct lending, venture debt and real estate debt are expected to be the fastest-growing strategies in private credit in near future, the report noted.

Indian equity benchmarks traded higher on Wednesday despite mixed global cues as Asian markets faced pressure from technology stocks amid concerns over AI spending.

In morning trade, Sensex were trading nearly 400 points or 0.5 per cent higher at 77,251, while Nifty was at 23,912.50, up 101.65 points or 0.43 per cent.

Earlier in the day, the Sensex opened at 76,853.11, down 64.74 points or 0.08 per cent, while Nifty began the session at 23,742.25, down 68.60 points or 0.29 per cent.

In early deals, sectoral indices traded mixed with broad-based weakness as Nifty Consumer Durables, Nifty Realty and Nifty IT declined up to 0.79 per cent. Meanwhile, metal, energy, private bank and PSU bank indices were also in the red zone.

On the gaining side, healthcare and pharmaceuticals indices showed resilience with Nifty 500 Healthcare, Nifty Healthcare Index and Nifty Pharma jumped up to 0.23 per cent.

Analysts said there is a distinct change in market mood driven by reversal in foreign institutional investor (FII) stance.

FIIs have been buyers in five out of last six trading days, buying stocks worth Rs 18,661 crore.

“Sustained selling by FIIs have been weighing on the market for last two years. This is changing now. Buying volume is increasing. Good corporate earnings and attractive valuations in large-caps is providing fundamental support to rally. Weakening of AI trade also facilitated return of FIIs,” experts said.

They added the rally is likely to be led by largecap shares with potential to attract big FII flows and can sustain on short covering, with leading financials having more room to move up.

For Nifty, the index continues to trade above its 50-day EMA near 23,196, with RSI at 66.59 indicating strong bullish momentum, though profit booking cannot be ruled out., according to the market experts.

PCR improved to 1.30. Immediate support is seen at 23,500-23,600, while resistance at 24,000-24,200 with 200-day EMA near 23,904 as intermediate hurdle.

On Tuesday, FIIs strengthened buying for third straight session with net purchases of Rs 6,836 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) extended selling streak to three sessions with net outflows of Rs 3,678 crore.

In addition, US markets closed higher led by Nasdaq as AI heavyweights rebounded ahead of US midterm results, while Apple fell after disappointing earnings.

Fresh consignments of India’s pomegranates and kiwi fruit exports have hit the Dubai market, opening new markets for the country’s farmers, backed by the Centre’s Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA).

APEDA has facilitated the export of 1.3 metric tonnes (MT) of Sinduri variety pomegranates from Himachal Pradesh’s Kullu district and the trial export of 1.5 metric tonnes (MT) of kiwi from Arunachal Pradesh’s Ziro to Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), according to a Commerce Ministry statement issued on Tuesday.

The consignment of pomegranates, comprising 650 boxes of 2 kg each, was exported by Uttar Pradesh-based Amama Exports. The initiative connects local growers and a Farmer Producer Organisation (FPO) with an exporter, creating opportunities for Himachal Pradesh’s horticultural produce to access international markets. The pomegranates were sourced directly from local farmers and the Bhuntar FPO, which is associated with approximately 600 farmers. The Kullu district horticulture administration supported the initiative by facilitating procurement and coordination, the statement said.

The initiative demonstrates the role of direct procurement and collective participation through FPOs in strengthening market linkages for farmers. The export enabled participating farmers to achieve 50 per cent higher price realisation compared with the prevailing domestic market benchmark.

The Sinduri variety is among the pomegranate varieties grown in Himachal Pradesh, alongside Bhagwa and Kandhari. Known for its attractive red skin, juicy arils, and sweet-tart flavour, Sinduri pomegranates are suitable for fresh consumption and offer potential for export markets.

The trial export consignment of 1.5 metric tonnes (MT) of kiwi from Arunachal Pradesh successfully reached Dubai and was showcased at LuLu Hypermarket in Al Qusais. The initiative marks a step towards assessing the fruit’s potential in international markets.

The initiative, undertaken under the Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region (MDoNER), seeks to promote and strengthen Arunachal Pradesh’s kiwi sector under the branding initiative “Kiwi: USP of Arunachal Pradesh”. Implemented in collaboration with the state government, the initiative aims to introduce the state’s kiwis to international markets, assess consumer response and develop stronger market linkages to expand export opportunities for local growers.

Arunachal Pradesh’s high-altitude growing conditions and natural environment support the cultivation of kiwi with distinctive fruit quality and flavour. The state’s produce offers potential in premium domestic markets, export promotion and value-added products. The major varieties grown in the region include Hayward, Monty, Allison and Bruno, with the Hayward variety showing good demand in international markets.

The initiative also seeks to connect local kiwi growers with potential overseas markets, creating additional sales channels and opportunities for improved farmer returns through future shipments. The trial export is expected to provide a basis for assessing market response and identifying requirements for expanding the presence of Arunachal Pradesh kiwi in international markets.