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Growth Oriented: RBI’s MPC expected to hold rates

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The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee is expected to retain key lending rates during the upcoming monetary policy review even as inflationary pressures continue to build-up.

The MPC will review the monetary policy in its meeting during April 6-8.

Accordingly, economists and industry experts cited the MPC’s strategic focus on growth as a key consideration to hold on rates.

Nonetheless, the central bank’s MPC might do away with the accommodative stance in an indication of future rate hikes.

Lately, high crude oil and commodity costs have started to reflect in retail prices.

The official gauge of retail inflation — CPI — has been printing above the MPC’s upper threshold of 6 per cent in January and February 2022.

“We expect a status-quo to be maintained in rates during the April’s review, however, MPC’s commentary is expected to be less dovish, preparing the ground for an imminent stance change,” ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said.

“We expect the monetary policy stance to be changed to neutral in June 2022, accompanied by a hike in the reverse repo rate, narrowing the corridor. Subsequently, we expect a shallow rate hike cycle, with two repo hikes of 25 bps each in August-September 2022.”

At present, the MPC of the central bank has maintained the repo rate, or short-term lending rate, for commercial banks, at 4 per cent.

Besides, the reverse repo rate was kept unchanged at 3.35 per cent.

“We remain watchful of inflation push-and-pull factors and their impact on MPC’s reaction function, which we think will be in a wait-and-watch mode until H1FY23,” Emkay Global Financial Services Lead Economist Madhavi Arora said.

Last month, official data showed that higher cost of food items, as well as manufactured goods like clothing and footwear, kept India’s February 2022 retail inflation above the six-per cent-mark on a sequential as well as on a year-on-year basis.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 6.07 per cent in February from 6.01 per cent in January 2022.

According to Suman Chowdhury, Chief Analytical Officer at Acute Ratings: “Given the growth headwinds generated from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, we expect the MPC to continue with the accommodative stance in the near term.”

“There is also a low likelihood of any revision in the reverse repo rates although short term interest rates have already seen a material increase since the last MPC meeting in Feb-22.”

In addition, Chowdhury expects a significant revision in the headline inflation forecast for FY23 which has been previously pegged by MPC at 4.5 per cent, since crude oil and other commodity prices have risen over the last two months.

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RBI projects 5 pc inflation for FY27, seen rising in near term

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Mumbai, Aug 5: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday projected consumer price inflation at 5 per cent for FY27, while expecting it to rise further in the near term.

Announcing the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent, Malhotra said headline consumer price inflation (CPI) rose to 4.4 per cent in June after remaining below the central bank’s 4 per cent target for 16 consecutive months.

However, he reiterated that the Indian economy remains resilient and continues to be supported by robust domestic demand, sustained manufacturing and services activity, healthy investment trends and strong exports.

Moreover, Q1 inflation was 30 basis points lower than the RBI’s earlier projection, reflecting limited pass-through of input cost pressures, he noted.

Despite the increase in food and fuel costs, core inflation — excluding food and fuel — remained unchanged at 3.9 per cent during May and June.

Excluding precious metals, core inflation was even lower at 2.3-2.5 per cent, indicating that broader demand-side inflationary pressures remain subdued.

In addition, the RBI has projected CPI inflation at 5 per cent for FY27, with quarterly projections of 4.7 per cent in Q2, 5.9 per cent in Q3 and 5.5 per cent in Q4.

While inflation for the first quarter of FY28 is projected at 5.3 per cent.

Malhotra said risks to the inflation outlook continue to stem from the impact of El Nino on rainfall distribution, volatility in global crude oil prices and geopolitical developments.

The Governor added that growth remains resilient, supported by steady domestic demand, sustained expansion in manufacturing and services activity, healthy investment trends and robust exports.

High-frequency indicators suggest that private consumption remained strong during the first quarter of FY27, while investment activity continued to be supported by construction, capital goods production and bank credit growth.

“Growth continues to be supported by resilient domestic demand, sustained expansion in manufacturing and services activity, and robust exports, reaffirming India’s position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy,” Malhotra said.

The RBI Governor said the MPC decided to maintain the repo rate and retain the neutral policy stance as greater clarity is needed on the future trajectory and composition of inflation before any monetary policy action is considered.

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Indian equity markets open higher ahead of RBI’s policy outcome

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Mumbai, Aug 5: Domestic equity markets opened higher on Wednesday ahead of the RBI’s policy decision as the headline index surged almost 1 per cent, while global cues were also positive.

Sensex started the trading session at 79,055.38, up over 600 points or 0.8 per cent, while Nifty opened 54 points or 0.22 per cent higher at 24,669.20.

Sector-wise, realty, auto, energy, PSU banking stocks were gainers as Nifty Realty, Nifty Auto, Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Oil & Gas surged up to 2 per cent. While Nifty Metal, Nifty Cement, Nifty Chemicals also edged up.

In contrast, healthcare and pharmaceuticals shares witnessed selling pressure in early deals, with Nifty Healthcare, Nifty Pharma, Nifty FMCG and Nifty Private Bank declining up to almost 1 per cent.

Meanwhile, Apollo Hospitals, Sun Pharma, Cipla, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, SBI Life, Nestle India, ITC and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) were top losers of the Nifty index.

Analysts said that sharp dip in Brent crude to below $80 and record closing in the US markets augur well for the Indian market today.

“The focus of the market today will be the monetary policy. The central bank is almost certain to hold the rates in today’s policy since any rate hike now will impact the ongoing growth momentum in the economy,” they said.

Experts further noted the growth resilience in the economy, improving corporate earnings growth and FIIs turning buyers for the sixth day in a row are positives from the market perspective, adding that it appears that the market is poised for a breakout on the upside.

Brent crude — international oil benchmark — declined by 1.61 per cent to trade around $78 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also decreased about 2 per cent to $74.24 per barrel.

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Emami Q1 net profit falls 16 pc to Rs 137 crore

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Mumbai, Aug 4: FMCG major Emami Limited on Tuesday reported a 16.38 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline in net profit for the quarter ended June 2026 (Q1 FY27).

The Kolkata-based FMCG company posted a net profit of Rs 137.3 crore for the quarter, compared with Rs 164.2 crore in the corresponding period last financial year (Q1 FY26), according to its stock exchange filing.

Despite the decline in profit, the maker of popular brands such as BoroPlus, Navratna and Zandu recorded healthy growth in revenue.

Revenue from operations rose 14.9 per cent year-on-year to Rs 1,039.2 crore in the June quarter, up from Rs 904.1 crore a year ago.

At the operating level, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased 5.5 per cent to Rs 226.18 crore, compared with Rs 214.29 crore in the year-ago quarter.

However, operating margins narrowed during the quarter. EBITDA margin stood at 21.7 per cent, down from 23.7 per cent in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year, as per its regulatory filing.

Founded in 1974 by R.S. Agarwal and R.C. Goenka, Emami is one of India’s leading fast-moving consumer goods companies.

The company has a strong presence in personal care and healthcare segments through brands including BoroPlus, Navratna, Zandu, Kesh King, Dermicool and The Man Company.

Headquartered in Kolkata, Emami has a footprint in more than 70 countries and operates through a network of over 4,000 distributors.

The company reported a turnover of Rs 3,780 crore in FY26 and continues to expand its presence across domestic and international markets.

The shares of the FMCG firm were trading at Rs 394, down 2.96 per cent or Rs 12 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE).

In last five days, the shares have delivered a negative return of 4.85 per cent or Rs 20.10.

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