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Fueling Inflation: Petrol, diesel prices set to rise as Crude to range around $95-125

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Hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, along with sustained demand, is expected to keep global crude oil prices in the range of $95-to-$125 per barrel in the short term.

Consequently, the geo-political crisis-led global hike in crude oil prices is expected to push India’s domestic prices of petrol and diesel by Rs 15-22 per litre.

It is widely expected that the OMCs will revise the current prices on or after March 7, which is the last day of voting in the ongoing state assembly elections.

However, an excise duty cut may dampen the impact on petrol and diesel prices to an extent, but not entirely.

At present, India imports 85 per cent of its crude oil needs.

Besides, the cascading effect of higher fuel cost will trigger a general inflationary trend.

Already, India’s main inflation gauge — Consumer Price Index (CPI) — which denotes retail inflation, has crossed the target range of the Reserve Bank of India in January.

The rise was blamed on high commodities costs.

As per industry calculations, a 10 per cent rise in crude oil prices adds nearly about 10 basis points in CPI inflation.

Lately, the crisis as well as fears of lower supplies have pushed Brent crude oil price to 10-year-high level of nearly $120 per barrel.

On Friday, the Brent-indexed crude oil stood at $113.76 per barrel from a 10-year high of $119.84 per barrel a day before.

Currently, Russia is the third largest producer of crude oil in the world.

It is feared that sanctions against Russia will curtail global supplies and stifle growth.

“The fear of lower supplies with sanctions on Russia has weighed on upcoming supply from Iran. Crude oil prices may keep form trading range next week capping upside at $130 and support at $95 per barrel,” said Tapan Patel, Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities.

“The higher oil prices has raised market expectations that govt of India may hike fuel prices post UP elections, expecting rise by Rs 10-15 per litre.”

Kshitij Purohit, Lead of Commodities and Currencies CapitalVia Global Research, said: “Brent Oil has challenged the $120 mark, but we are ready for a retracement at this moment.

“For the following week, it could trade in the $117 to $106 range.”

In addition, IIFL Securities VP, Research, Anuj Gupta said: “We expect the crude oil prices to range from $108 to $116 per barrel. Some price correction may take place on the back of positive outcome on the Iran nuclear deal.

“However, any escalations in tensions will push crude prices higher.”

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Nifty, Sensex dip nearly 2 pc this week over oil prices, global interest rates

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Mumbai, Sep 12: The Indian equity benchmarks posted notable losses for the fifth consecutive week amid a sharp rise in crude oil and worries over global interest rates.

Nifty declined 2.09 per cent during the week and shed 0.34 per cent on the last trading day to reach 23,398. At close, Sensex was down 120 points, or 0.16 per cent, at 74,781. It lost 2.27 per cent during the week.

Analysts said that global macro developments weighed on investor sentiments. A firmer US inflation backdrop and rising Treasury yields — with the 10‑year US yield approaching the 5 per cent mark — reinforced expectations of a higher‑for‑longer rate environment and tightening global financial conditions.

The sell-off was broad-based, with major sectors ending lower during the week. Nifty realty emerged as the biggest loser on NSE down 6.54 per cent on a weekly basis. The Nifty IT index shed around 5.78 per cent during the week.

Indian equities saw sharp volatility due to the newly launched closing auction session, particularly on derivatives expiry days.

Crude oil emerged as the dominant headwind for domestic equities as attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz intensified and Iran-aligned Houthi forces threatened oil shipments from the Red Sea region.

WTI Crude surged over 9.5 per cent moving above $104 per barrel, while Brent crude surged more than 8.5 per cent during the week.

Analysts noted that the crude price volatility has heightened India’s inflation risks and external-sector risks, with the potential to raise input costs and pressure corporate margins while reinforcing expectations of a higher-for-longer global interest-rate environment.

Broad market indices performed in line with the benchmark indices, as Nifty Midcap100 declined 1.40 per cent and Nifty Smallcap100 shed 0.94 per cent during the week.

The 23,300 zone remains the immediate support area for Nifty, while 23,500–23,600 region remains the immediate resistance zone.

Immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed around 56,200–56,000, while the 56,700–56,800 zone remains the key resistance area, market participants said.

Foreign institutional investors-led selling also emerged as another headwind for domestic equities. FIIs net sold Rs 1,795.19 crore worth of equities during the week, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net bought Rs 6,419.46 crore of equities.

Global macroeconomic and geopolitical risks are likely to keep Indian equities on edge in the week ahead, with crude oil prices, developments in the Middle East and shifting expectations for US monetary policy emerging as the key drivers of market sentiment, an analyst said.

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Centre urges states to utilise cess funds for workers’ welfare

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Mumbai, Sep 11: Union Labour & Employment Minister Mansukh Mandaviya on Friday urged state governments to undertake a detailed assessment of the current utilisation of cess funds, identify gaps, and explore new avenues for their effective utilisation, keeping in view the long-term welfare and social security of workers.

Addressing the National Conference on Building and Other Construction Workers (BOCW) here, the minister also called upon states to undertake a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the Labour Codes after one year of their implementation and identify areas where more effective execution may be required. He emphasised the need for workshops and orientation programmes for labour law practitioners to facilitate effective implementation of the Codes in letter and spirit.

Highlighting the significance of the Pradhan Mantri Viksit Bharat Rozgar Yojana (PMVBRY) in promoting employment and expanding social security coverage for new entrants to the workforce, the minister urged state governments to undertake focused workshops and engagements with industry and other stakeholders. Such efforts, he noted, would help create greater awareness and ensure that eligible new entrants receive the benefits of the scheme, thereby strengthening the collective efforts towards expanding formal employment and worker welfare.

He stressed the importance of sharing best practices among states and ensuring optimum utilisation of BOCW funds to provide wider social security coverage to workers. He further emphasised the need for the labour ecosystem to continuously evolve with changing times, and underlined the need for the Centre and states to remain aligned in their vision and policies for the holistic welfare of BOCW workers.

He also emphasised the need to explore measures that can provide workers with greater dignity, honour and self-respect, including the possibility of providing pension support to workers. He further highlighted the growing global demand for skilled and semi-skilled workers, and underscored the need to prepare India’s workforce to meet these emerging opportunities.

Mandaviya called for deliberations on international labour mobility, highlighting its significance in the nation’s economic growth through remittances, and in meeting the aspirations of Bharat’s Yuva Shakti. He emphasised the need for coordinated efforts by the Centre and states to create a comprehensive platform for international labour mobility, supported by appropriate financial and digital infrastructure, so that Indian workers can access global opportunities while enhancing India’s credibility on the global stage.

In his address, Labour & Employment Secretary Dr Chandra Bhushan Kumar drew attention to the significance of the Conference, highlighting the number of construction workers across India, which stands at over 7 crore, and the BOCW cess corpus available in the country, amounting to about Rs 77,000 crore. The deliberations at the Conference provide an opportunity to share best practices and engage with industry partners, he added.

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Captive coal mines register robust output growth in April-September FY27

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India’s captive mines produced 68.98 million tonnes (MT) of coal up to September 10 in the current financial year, up from 65.78 MT in the corresponding period of FY 2025-26, which represents a year-on-year growth of 5 per cent, or an additional 3.2 MT, and this also comes on a base that was itself 10.12 per cent higher than the previous year, the Coal Ministry said on Friday.

The gain has been recorded in the first five months of the current financial year, which include the monsoon, when mining and evacuation are at their most difficult, a ministry statement said.

Dispatch from captive mines has also been better than the previous year. Captive mines dispatched 75.68 MT against 71.43 MT last year, a growth of 5.94 per cent and an increase of 4.25 MT.

Provisional figures indicate the pace is picking up further as the monsoon begins to recede. In the ten days between September 1 and September 10, captive mines produced 4.12 MT and dispatched 4.21 MT.

New capacity is being added steadily to this base. Nine captive and commercial mines are expected to commence production during FY 2026-27, with a combined peak rated capacity of 20.67 MT. Three of these, with a peak capacity of 7.51 MT, have already started production during the current year. The remaining six are expected to commence production soon during the year, according to the statement.

On this footing, production from captive mines is expected to cross 190 MT in FY 2026-27. Together with commercial mines, the two segments are expected to exceed 228 MT during the current financial year, the statement said.

Captive mines have been a mainstay of coal production, and their output has grown steadily, with annual production recording a robust 10.1 per cent rise from 167.44 million tonnes (MT) in FY 2024-25 to 184 MT in FY 2025-26.

Along with commercial mines, which produced around 26 MT, the captive and commercial segment together accounted for 210 MT in FY 2025-26 against 190.95 MT the previous year.

Captive and commercial mines account for about 21 per cent of total domestic coal production, which stood at 1,039 MT in FY 2025-26 and has remained above one billion tonnes for the second year running. This performance has carried into the current financial year, the statement added.

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