Business
Fueling Inflation: Petrol, diesel prices set to rise as Crude to range around $95-125
Hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, along with sustained demand, is expected to keep global crude oil prices in the range of $95-to-$125 per barrel in the short term.
Consequently, the geo-political crisis-led global hike in crude oil prices is expected to push India’s domestic prices of petrol and diesel by Rs 15-22 per litre.
It is widely expected that the OMCs will revise the current prices on or after March 7, which is the last day of voting in the ongoing state assembly elections.
However, an excise duty cut may dampen the impact on petrol and diesel prices to an extent, but not entirely.
At present, India imports 85 per cent of its crude oil needs.
Besides, the cascading effect of higher fuel cost will trigger a general inflationary trend.
Already, India’s main inflation gauge — Consumer Price Index (CPI) — which denotes retail inflation, has crossed the target range of the Reserve Bank of India in January.
The rise was blamed on high commodities costs.
As per industry calculations, a 10 per cent rise in crude oil prices adds nearly about 10 basis points in CPI inflation.
Lately, the crisis as well as fears of lower supplies have pushed Brent crude oil price to 10-year-high level of nearly $120 per barrel.
On Friday, the Brent-indexed crude oil stood at $113.76 per barrel from a 10-year high of $119.84 per barrel a day before.
Currently, Russia is the third largest producer of crude oil in the world.
It is feared that sanctions against Russia will curtail global supplies and stifle growth.
“The fear of lower supplies with sanctions on Russia has weighed on upcoming supply from Iran. Crude oil prices may keep form trading range next week capping upside at $130 and support at $95 per barrel,” said Tapan Patel, Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities.
“The higher oil prices has raised market expectations that govt of India may hike fuel prices post UP elections, expecting rise by Rs 10-15 per litre.”
Kshitij Purohit, Lead of Commodities and Currencies CapitalVia Global Research, said: “Brent Oil has challenged the $120 mark, but we are ready for a retracement at this moment.
“For the following week, it could trade in the $117 to $106 range.”
In addition, IIFL Securities VP, Research, Anuj Gupta said: “We expect the crude oil prices to range from $108 to $116 per barrel. Some price correction may take place on the back of positive outcome on the Iran nuclear deal.
“However, any escalations in tensions will push crude prices higher.”
Business
Sensex, Nifty trade flat as crude oil declines, monsoon remains in focus

Mumbai, June 17: Domestic equity benchmarks traded flat in morning session on Wednesday after a three-day rally driven by lower crude oil prices and optimism over a US-Iran peace deal.
Sensex was trading at 76,817.58, up 8.58 points or 0.01 per cent, while Nifty was at 23,988, down 1 point in early trade.
Earlier in the day, the 30-share index opened higher, rising 284.69 points or 0.37 per cent to hit an intraday high of 77,093.17. The 50-script basket began the day at 24,044.50, up 58.89 points or 0.24 per cent.
On the sectoral front, Nifty Consumer Durables was the top performer, gaining 1.26 per cent, followed by Nifty IT and Nifty Media.
In addition, healthcare and pharma stocks remained in demand, with Nifty Pharma advancing 0.24 per cent and Nifty Healthcare rising 0.18 per cent.
In contrast, selling pressure was visible in metal and realty stocks. Nifty Metal fell 0.87 per cent, while Nifty Realty declined 0.68 per cent. Nifty Auto, Private Bank and PSU Bank indices also traded in the red.
Among the Nifty 50 constituents, Hindalco Industries, NTPC, Trent, ONGC, Bharti Airtel, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories and Axis Bank were among the top losers.
According to market experts, two factors are likely to influence market trends in the near term — one positive and the other negative.
“The positive factor is the steady and sharp decline in crude oil prices. Brent crude has fallen by around 16 per cent over the last five days to about $79 per barrel, easing concerns over a widening balance of payments deficit in India,” they said.
The negative factor is the deficient monsoon, which is raising concerns about food inflation. However, experts noted that monsoon activity could improve in the coming days, as has happened in the past, easing such concerns.
The positive trend is likely to continue as the rupee has been steadily strengthening and could appreciate further, experts added.
On the commodities front, international benchmark Brent crude declined 0.72 per cent to $78.39 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude decreased almost 1 per cent to $75.35.
Business
Centre refutes reports on deep-sea energy pipeline between India and the Gulf

New Delhi, June 16: The government on Tuesday refuted media reports that it is pursuing a deep-sea energy pipeline, connecting Gujarat to Oman and other Gulf countries.
In a clarification, the Petroleum Ministry said it has noticed a series of media reports suggesting that the Government of India is actively pursuing a deep-sea energy pipeline, sometimes referred to as the Middle East-India Deepwater Pipeline (MEIDP), connecting Gujarat to Oman and other Gulf countries.
“The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas wishes to categorically clarify that no such proposal is currently under consideration by this Ministry. There are no active discussions or negotiations with Oman or any other Gulf countries on this project at any level in this Ministry,” it said in a statement.
“This clarification is issued to put all speculation in this regard to rest,” added the ministry.
Meanwhile, the Malta-flagged LNG carrier DISHA, managed by a Shipping Corporation of India-led consortium, safely transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday with a cargo of 62,370 metric tonnes of LNG bound for Dahej in Gujarat, and is likely to reach India on June 18.
The government said it remains in continuous coordination with the Ministry of External Affairs, Indian missions abroad, shipping companies, and other relevant stakeholders to ensure the safety and welfare of Indian seafarers and provide all assistance. Port operations across India remain normal, with no congestion reported.
The Directorate General of Shipping (DGS) has also advised shipping companies as well as maritime recruitment and placement agencies to restrict deployment of Indian seafarers to in the Middle East conflict areas until further orders, days after three Indian seafarers onboard MT Settebello were killed after the US military strike on the commercial vessel off the Oman coast.
DG Shipping, in a circular, said masters of vessels operating in or transiting through the Gulf region, including the Strait of Hormuz and adjoining waters, are advised to maintain heightened security awareness, closely monitor navigational warnings received and advisories issued from security agencies, and implement all applicable ship security measures and company security procedures.
Business
Indian equity markets trade higher amid easing West Asia tensions

Mumbai, June 16: Indian equity markets traded higher in morning trade on Tuesday after the United States and Iran reached a preliminary agreement to end conflict.
Sensex rose over 300 points or 0.41 per cent to touch an intraday high of 76,579 in early trade, while Nifty gained around 90 points or 0.36 per cent to trade at 23,941.
Sectorally, buying was seen in realty, IT, consumer durables and financial stocks, with Nifty Realty gaining 0.86 per cent and Nifty IT rising 0.74 per cent.
FMCG, media, chemicals and auto indices also traded in positive territory.
In contrast, metal stocks witnessed selling pressure, dragging Nifty Metal down more than 1 per cent.
From the Nifty pack, Hindalco Industries, JSW Steel, Axis Bank, HDFC Life, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) and Tata Steel were among the top losers.
Analysts said the sharp correction in Brent crude prices to below $84 per barrel and stability in the rupee have the potential to lend resilience to the market.
“The strong macro headwind of a rising balance of payments (BoP) deficit is no longer a serious issue for the economy. This positive development has imparted stability to the rupee, which has appreciated to 94.71 against the dollar from its recent low of 96.96,” market experts said.
However, analysts cautioned that a weak monsoon remains a concern, as a below-normal rainfall season could fuel inflationary pressures. They said developments on the monsoon front would need to be closely monitored in the coming weeks.
According to senior US officials, the two sides have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) aimed at ending the nearly four-month-long war, with a formal signing ceremony expected on Friday.
Moreover, US officials indicated that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is likely to resume gradually, easing concerns over disruptions to global energy supplies.
On the commodities front, international benchmark Brent crude traded 0.37 per cent lower at $82.86 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 0.22 per cent to $80.57 per barrel.
Asian markets traded mostly higher. Japan’s Nikkei advanced 0.62 per cent, while South Korea’s KOSPI surged more than 2 per cent. Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite gained around 4 per cent. However, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined over 1 per cent.
Overnight, Wall Street ended higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.65 per cent and the Nasdaq surging nearly 3 per cent.
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