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‘Gold and Silver for medium to long term as investment’

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With uncertainties in the world – economics and geopolitics – investors having medium to long term outlook can have gold and silver in their portfolio, said Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

A 20 per cent allocation to gold exchange traded funds (ETF) in an investment portfolio during Diwali is ideal, said Quantum AMC.

Geopolitics, Central banks action and inflationary concerns are themes that are not only driving precious metals, but also triggering volatility in other asset classes, said Motilal Oswal in a report.

The US Federal Reserve is rushing to raise interest rates at an aggressive pace with an objective to tame inflation.

On the other hand, geo-political tensions between Russia-Ukraine and other economies continue to increase distress in the economy.

All this is raising questions regarding pace of global growth, institutions like IMF have also lowered their projections on the same.

Pointing out India as one of the largest consumers of gold and silver, Motilal Oswal said there has been a lot of development especially on the domestic front which are supporting prices.

“Government initiatives like, setting up GIFT city, signing an FTA (free trade agreement) between UAE and India, (implies that about 200 tonnes of gold will be imported from UAE at 1 per cent tariff rate quota-TRQ) and changes in import duty,” the company said.

This year macro factors will have an upper hand over the move in metal prices, as tighter monetary policy scenario is not a great phase for non-yielding asset gold, the report said.

The gold price trend is caught between the tussle of bulls and bears.

Extreme negatives do trigger bargain buying for gold and so it is important for medium to long term investors to see a broader picture, Motilal Oswal said.

Except for a few dips, the overall trend for gold has remained positive, and the returns also are quite decent, the company added.

The company has suggested accumulation of gold at Rs 46,800-Rs 47,500 with a medium term target of Rs 53,000 and a long term target of Rs 58,000 with an expected upside of 8-17 per cent.

In the case of silver, Motilal Oswal said the accumulation zone will be Rs 53,500-Rs 54,000 with a medium term target of Rs 64,500 and a long term target of Rs 73,000 with an expected upside of 13-28 per cent.

According to Quantum AMC, the correction in the gold prices from the peak has made the metal affordable this festive season.

“To make the most of the correction, we recommend investing in efficient products such as gold ETFs (exchange traded funds) to maximize the benefits,” Quantum AMC said.

Owning physical gold comes with additional costs such as making charges, retail premiums, storage concerns, and lower buyback value.

On its part, Emkay Global Financial Services in a report said the current weakness in gold may continue till there is more concrete information on the state of the economy in the major economies, especially against the background of an aggressive central bank trade-off unfavourable to growth and promoting stability.

Generally, gold is considered as a hedge against inflation but this time around it does not seem so.

Business

Global crude prices rise 0.73 pc as US-Iran talks stall

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New Delhi, Crude oil prices rose on Friday as efforts to resolve the Iran crisis reached a stalemate, with Tehran continuing to block the Strait of Hormuz and Washington restricting Iranian crude exports.

Brent futures for July on Intercontinental Exchange gained $0.81, or 0.73 per cent, to $111.21 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 31 cents, or 0.30 per cent, to $105.37. Both benchmarks have posted gains for four consecutive months, analysts noted.

Brent crude oil had crossed $120 per barrel for the first time in 4 years, heightening inflation concerns and putting pressure on global markets.

Market participants flagged new supply concerns after Brent’s June contract, which expired on Thursday, hit $126.41 a barrel, its highest level since March 2022.

British and European central banks cautioned about rising inflation, while the United States is working towards a coalition of allied countries and shipping companies to ensure secure transit through Hormuz.

A ceasefire though in effect since April 8 felt shaky, as on Thursday evening, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said it was unrealistic to expect quick outcomes from negotiations with the US, according to multiple reports.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned that rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict are boosting inflation and complicating policy. Asia faces greater economic risks from the energy shock, he added.

The price of a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder has been increased by Rs 993, starting Friday, and after the revision, a 19-kg cylinder will now cost Rs 3,071.5 in Delhi.

However, there has been no change in the price of domestic LPG cylinders for 33 crore users, the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) said in a statement.

This is the third time that the price of a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder has been increased since February 28, when the US-Israel and Iran war began.

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Sensex, Nifty fall nearly 1 pc as oil surge weighs on sentiment

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Mumbai, Indian equity benchmarks started Thursday’s session — the final trading day of the week — on a weaker note, with both indices declining nearly 1 per cent in early deals, as a sharp jump in crude oil prices dented sentiment and outweighed support from stock-specific earnings gains.

Sensex fell as much as 0.95 per cent or over 700 points to 76,759.37 in early trade, hitting an intraday low, while Nifty declined 0.96 per cent or more than 200 points to 23,943.45.

Selling pressure was broad-based, with auto, banking, realty, metal, consumer durables and FMCG stocks, falling up to 1 per cent. Eternal, Shriram Finance, IndiGo, M&M, Jio Financial Services, Tata Motors PV, Axis Bank, Grasim Industries, Asian Paints, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank were among the top laggards.

While Nifty 100, Nifty Midcap, Nifty 200 and Nifty 500 indices declined by up to around 1 per cent. Meanwhile, the India VIX rose 2.7 per cent to 17.91, indicating heightened market volatility.

According to a market expert, two key headwinds could impact markets in the near term.

“Brent crude at around $120 threatens India’s macroeconomic stability. If prices remain elevated, it could pose downside risks to growth and push inflation higher,” the expert said.

“Secondly, stronger-than-expected results from AI majors in the US and South Korea may extend the ongoing AI trade, potentially leading to further portfolio outflows from India,” he added.

The Fed’s decision to hold rates was on expected lines and is unlikely to have a significant impact. However, the rise in US 10-year bond yields to 4.4 per cent could further incentivise capital outflows from India,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

Exit polls indicating consolidation of the ruling party’s position may offer some sentiment support but do not materially alter market fundamentals.

“Investors can focus on companies reporting better-than-expected Q4 results and strong outlooks, where opportunities remain,” he said.

Oil prices rallied after US President Donald Trump reportedly held talks with oil companies on steps to reduce the impact of a potential prolonged blockade of Iran’s ports, raising concerns over possible disruptions to global crude supplies.

Separately, the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, broadly in line with expectations, while cautioning about inflation risks stemming from the Iran conflict. Market participants have also pared back expectations of rate cuts in 2026.

Crude oil prices are approaching their 52-week highs of $114.81. Brent crude was trading at $113.18 per barrel, up 2.48 per cent from the previous close, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $109.64 per barrel, also higher on the day.

However, Brent crude hovered close to $120 per barrel after surging over 6 per cent on Wednesday to its highest level since June 2022.

In Asian markets, indices were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng were down over 1 per cent, South Korea’s KOSPI declined 0.40 per cent, while Singapore’s Straits Times gained 0.65 per cent.

On Wall Street, US markets ended on a flat note, with the S&P 500 settling at 7,135.95, down 0.04 per cent, and the Nasdaq finishing at 24,673.24, up 0.04 per cent.

Notably, domestic equity markets will remain shut for trading on Friday, May 1, in observance of Maharashtra Day.

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Gold, silver see muted trade amid Iran-US de-escalation hopes

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Mumbai, Gold and silver prices traded on a flat note on Monday amid a rise in crude oil prices and reports of a fresh proposal by Iran to end the conflict with the US, raising hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (June 5 contract) were trading at Rs 1,52,410 per 10 grams, down 0.19 per cent or Rs 290 from the previous close of Rs 1,52,699.

By 11:00 A.M., the yellow metal touched an intraday high of Rs 1,53,008, up 0.20 per cent or Rs 309.

Meanwhile, silver futures (May 5 contract) were trading at Rs 2,43,200, down Rs 1,436 or 0.6 per cent.

The white metal touched an intraday high of Rs 2,45,473, up 0.34 per cent or Rs 837 from the previous close, and a low of Rs 2,43,009, down 0.66 per cent or Rs 1,627.

According to a commodity market expert, precious metals are trading with a cautious bias, with prices largely driven by key technical levels amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

On COMEX, gold is holding above the $4,700–$4,680 support zone, with further downside possible below $4,650, while a sustained move above $4,750–$4,800 could revive momentum towards $4,900, the expert said.

On MCX, gold is hovering near Rs 1,52,500, with resistance seen around Rs 1,54,000 and support at Rs 1,50,000, the expert added.

The analyst also said that silver is also showing a cautious undertone, noting that volatility remains elevated due to geopolitical tensions, keeping the overall outlook range-bound in the near term.

In the international market, both metals were largely flat. On COMEX, gold was trading marginally higher by 0.02 per cent at $4,742 per ounce, while silver was down 0.05 per cent at $76 per ounce.

However, tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, although Iran has reportedly proposed a fresh peace initiative to the US aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the conflict.

Amid global uncertainty, gold and silver have delivered strong returns to investors over the past year. Gold has gained over 40 per cent in dollar terms over the past year and more than 18 per cent in six months.

Meanwhile, silver has more than doubled investors’ money over the past year and gained over 60 per cent in the last six months.

Additionally, Brent crude jumped over 2 per cent to $107.77, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced to $96.68, an increase of 2.41 per cent.

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