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‘Gold and Silver for medium to long term as investment’

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With uncertainties in the world – economics and geopolitics – investors having medium to long term outlook can have gold and silver in their portfolio, said Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

A 20 per cent allocation to gold exchange traded funds (ETF) in an investment portfolio during Diwali is ideal, said Quantum AMC.

Geopolitics, Central banks action and inflationary concerns are themes that are not only driving precious metals, but also triggering volatility in other asset classes, said Motilal Oswal in a report.

The US Federal Reserve is rushing to raise interest rates at an aggressive pace with an objective to tame inflation.

On the other hand, geo-political tensions between Russia-Ukraine and other economies continue to increase distress in the economy.

All this is raising questions regarding pace of global growth, institutions like IMF have also lowered their projections on the same.

Pointing out India as one of the largest consumers of gold and silver, Motilal Oswal said there has been a lot of development especially on the domestic front which are supporting prices.

“Government initiatives like, setting up GIFT city, signing an FTA (free trade agreement) between UAE and India, (implies that about 200 tonnes of gold will be imported from UAE at 1 per cent tariff rate quota-TRQ) and changes in import duty,” the company said.

This year macro factors will have an upper hand over the move in metal prices, as tighter monetary policy scenario is not a great phase for non-yielding asset gold, the report said.

The gold price trend is caught between the tussle of bulls and bears.

Extreme negatives do trigger bargain buying for gold and so it is important for medium to long term investors to see a broader picture, Motilal Oswal said.

Except for a few dips, the overall trend for gold has remained positive, and the returns also are quite decent, the company added.

The company has suggested accumulation of gold at Rs 46,800-Rs 47,500 with a medium term target of Rs 53,000 and a long term target of Rs 58,000 with an expected upside of 8-17 per cent.

In the case of silver, Motilal Oswal said the accumulation zone will be Rs 53,500-Rs 54,000 with a medium term target of Rs 64,500 and a long term target of Rs 73,000 with an expected upside of 13-28 per cent.

According to Quantum AMC, the correction in the gold prices from the peak has made the metal affordable this festive season.

“To make the most of the correction, we recommend investing in efficient products such as gold ETFs (exchange traded funds) to maximize the benefits,” Quantum AMC said.

Owning physical gold comes with additional costs such as making charges, retail premiums, storage concerns, and lower buyback value.

On its part, Emkay Global Financial Services in a report said the current weakness in gold may continue till there is more concrete information on the state of the economy in the major economies, especially against the background of an aggressive central bank trade-off unfavourable to growth and promoting stability.

Generally, gold is considered as a hedge against inflation but this time around it does not seem so.

Business

India‑UAE ties grow into a model for BRICS collaboration: Report

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New Delhi, Sep 14: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and India are broadening a strategic and economic partnership that serves as “an effective model of cooperation within BRICS,” a new report has said.

The partnership is built on a foundation of historic ties, shared interests and major projects that promote trade, investment and logistics connectivity between markets, the report from Gulf Today said.

“The growing UAE-India partnership, reflected in expanding trade, increasingly integrated logistics corridors and cooperation in investment and innovation, provides a practical model of the UAE’s role within BRICS,” the report said.

Further, the partnership also proves UAE’s commitment to exchanging expertise and perspectives and building more integrated and sustainable economic partnerships.

Bilateral trade reached $101.25 billion in FY26, marking the second consecutive year in which trade between the two countries exceeded $100 billion. The UAE and India have set a target to raise bilateral trade to $200 billion by 2032.

The partnership is being advanced through initiatives such as Bharat Mart, the Virtual Trade Corridor and cooperation under the India‑Middle East‑Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).

“These initiatives are helping strengthen supply chain integration and create new routes for trade and investment flows between the two countries and global markets,” the report noted.

The UAE-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), operational since 2022 was hailed as the first agreement of its kind concluded by the UAE. The agreement has bolstered the flow of goods, services and investment and expanded opportunities for the private sector in both countries.

United Arab Emirates and China were the largest destinations within BRICS, together accounting for 88.50 per cent of India’s electronics exports to the grouping.

The number of Indian companies registered as active members of Dubai Chamber reached 85,841 by the end of June 2026 after 7,579 new Indian firms joined in the first half of the year, marking a year‑on‑year increase of 15 per cent, another report said.

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BofA turns bullish on Indian equities, sees Nifty at 26,200 by December 2026

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Mumbai, Sep 14: The Nifty could climb to 26,200 by December 2026, implying an upside of around 12 per cent from current levels, as Bank of America (BofA) Securities has turned constructive on Indian equities after maintaining a cautious stance for nearly two years.

In its latest strategy report, BofA said it had remained cautious on Indian stocks since August 2024 and had identified eight key risks that could keep the market volatile. However, five of those risks have either already played out or have been largely priced into the market, prompting the brokerage to adopt a more positive stance.

BofA said the three remaining risks could create around 7 per cent downside for the Nifty 50 in its bear-case scenario. In its base case, however, the brokerage sees the index reaching 26,200 by December 2026.

According to BofA, the remaining risks are expected to peak by October 2026, potentially creating room for a sustained market recovery from November.

One of the key risks identified earlier was a sharp rise in crude oil prices above $100 a barrel, compared with BofA’s fourth-quarter 2026 estimate of $81 a barrel. The brokerage noted that crude prices have reversed from the $100-a-barrel level seven times over the past seven months.

The rupee was another concern, although BofA said recent inflows of around $136 billion should provide support to the currency and maintained an appreciation bias.

Weak monsoon conditions were also among the risks, with the current rainfall deficit at 13 per cent, close to the 15 per cent worst-case scenario previously projected by the brokerage.

BofA also expects limited further acceleration in aluminium and copper prices. On monetary policy, its economist expects the Reserve Bank of India to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points by December 2026, compared with around 45 basis points currently priced by swap markets.

The three remaining risks include a possible surge in primary market issuances, with around $30 billion expected between September and December and issuance activity likely to peak in October. Another risk is the possibility of 75 basis points of Federal Reserve rate hikes, compared with around 35 basis points currently priced by markets. Over the longer term, BofA also flagged the potential impact of artificial intelligence-led disruption on employment in India.

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India okays 18 hours a day power supply to Nepal till Dec 31

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New Delhi, Sep 14: India has approved a proposal to supply power to Nepal for 18 hours a day till December 31 this year, following the extensive damage caused to the Himalayan country’s hydropower projects in the devastating flash floods, an official statement said on Monday.

“The Ministry of Power has accorded approval for the export of power, for 18 hours a day to Nepal Electricity Authority till December 31, 2026,” according to the statement.

Approval has been given for up to 600MW of export through Muzaffarpur-Dhalkebar 400 kV D/c line and up to 54 MW through Tanakpur-Mahendranagar 132 kV S/c line. The quantum of power to be exported from January 2027 will be reviewed in December, 2026, the statement said.

The recent floods have caused significant damage to hydropower infrastructure in Nepal, reducing its domestic power generation capacity and creating an additional requirement for electricity.

The approval will help Nepal meet its power requirements during this difficult period and further strengthen the close and longstanding energy cooperation between India and Nepal, the statement explained.

“India remains committed to supporting Nepal and strengthening bilateral cooperation in the energy sector,” the statement added.

India also intensified its humanitarian assistance to Nepal in the wake of the floods, delivering relief material and deploying personnel to support search, rescue, and forensic operations. Indian Air Force aircraft were used to carry relief and rescue supplies to Kathmandu.

The country also dispatched specialised technical gear, including mud rescue suits, gas detectors, breathing apparatus, inflatable walkways, portable generators, lighting towers, and dewatering pumps. India has provided DNA kits, reagents, and equipment for DNA profiling to aid in victim identification.

Meanwhile, the death toll from flash floods has risen to 1,386, with more bodies recovered from eight affected districts.

The floods, triggered by an ice-rock avalanche near the Nepal-Tibet border on August 26, devastated towns and villages in northern and central Nepal.

According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, 104 of the recovered bodies have so far been identified and handed over to families. Around 5,130 people are still reported missing.

Security forces continue search and rescue operations. More than 13,700 people have been rescued so far, while 339 people are undergoing treatment in hospitals.

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