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Global growth rebound solidifies while risks broaden away from pandemic: Moody’s

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Moody

Global growth rebound has solidified, but spread of delta variant poses risks, Moody’s Investors Service said in its latest assessment of global economy as the pandemic continues.

According to the credit ratings agency, G-20 economies are expected to grow by 6.2 per cent as a whole in 2021, after a 3.2 per cent contraction last year, followed by 4.5 per cent growth in 2022.

In the grouping, advanced economies will grow by 5.6 per cent collectively in 2021 and by 4.2 per cent in 2022, while emerging markets will collectively expand by 7.2 per cent in 2021, and slow to 5.1 per cent growth in 2022.

Excluding China (A1 stable), we project G-20 emerging market economies will expand by 5.7 per cent and 4.1 per cent in 2021 and 2022, respectively, Moody’s said.

With regard to inflation, the analysis said inflation has surprised to be the upside and appears close to peak. Accordingly, for most G-20 economies, the expectation is that inflation will remain elevated through 2021, and will subside only in 2022. Base effects will reverse and the impact of one-off price increases amid reopening pressures will fade in 2022.

Eventually, Moody’s expect that inflation will settle within central bank targets as demand growth falls back and supply bottlenecks ease.

Monetary and financial conditions are set to tighten, but not excessively so. With a growth recovery from the Covid shock in sight and upward revisions to central banks’ inflation forecasts, Moody’s said it expects a few advanced economy central banks to progressively dial back emergency measures, including liquidity operations and asset purchases. In addition, as the recovery consolidates, central banks may incrementally alter policy guidance, signaling a gradual shift in the policy stance from expansionary to neutral.

Risks will evolve over time as the pandemic becomes a less important economic driver, Moody’s said. The most immediate risk to forecasts in the near term relates to the evolution of the pandemic. Further out, unprecedentedly high levels of public and private sector debt could become a concern from a debt sustainability standpoint if growth and revenue prospects dim. The boost in digitization brought about by the pandemic could increase productivity but also create structural unemployment and social tensions, the Malaysia pointed out.

The pandemic has also accelerated political realignments, which could spur geopolitical tensions and cyber risks, it added.

Vaccination rates, the extent of serious infections and mobility restrictions remain the key determinants of where countries find themselves in their economic recovery cycle, Moody’s said.

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8-fold surge in bank fraud cases at Rs 21,367 crore in 1st half this fiscal: RBI

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New Delhi, Dec 28: There has been a significant surge in bank fraud cases in the first half this fiscal (April-September), with 18,461 incidents amounting to Rs 21,367 crore, according to a report by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

This is an almost 28 per cent rise in the number of cases (14,480 in April-September of FY24) and over eight-fold increase in the total amount (Rs 2,623 crore), compared to the same period last fiscal.

In FY 2023-24, the internet and card frauds accounted for 44.7 per cent of the total fraud amount and 85.3 per cent of the cases, said the Central Bank in its report on trend and progress of banking in India.

The report further stated that private sector banks reported 67.1 per cent of all fraud cases, while public sector banks faced the highest financial impact.

“In terms of number of frauds, the share of card and internet frauds was highest for all bank groups in 2023-24,” it mentioned.

When it comes to enforcement actions, total penalties imposed on banks reached Rs 86.1 crore in 2023-24.

“Instances of penalty imposed on regulated entities (REs) increased during 2023-24 across all bank groups, except FBs and small financial banks (SFBs). The total penalty amount more than doubled in 2023-24, led by public and private sector banks. The amount of penalty imposed on co-operative banks declined during the year, while there was an increase in instances of penalty imposition,” said the RBI report.

Frauds present multiple challenges for the financial system in the form of reputational risk, operational risk, business risk and erosion of customer confidence with financial stability implications.

“Going forward, there is a continuing need for banks to strengthen their risk management standards, IT governance arrangements and customer onboarding and transaction monitoring systems to check unscrupulous activities, including suspicious and unusual transactions,” said RBI.

The central bank is working on a public repository of digital lending apps to help customers verify the legitimacy of these services.

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Mumbai: SEBI Imposes ₹54 Lakh Fine On Jaiprakash Power Ventures, CEO Suren Jain And Top Officials For Misrepresenting Financial Statements

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The capital market regulator, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), imposed penalties totaling ₹54 lakh on Jaiprakash Power Ventures, its Managing Director and CEO Suren Jain, and other top officials on Friday for allegedly misrepresenting the company’s financial statements.

In an 89-page order, the regulator directed Jaiprakash Power Ventures Ltd (JPVL), a part of the Jaypee Group, to pay the penalties within 45 days. The SEBI report named JPVL MD and CEO Suren Jain, Chairperson Manoj Gaur, Executive Directors Sunil Kumar Sharma and Praveen Kumar Singh, Chief Financial Officer R.K. Porwal, and former Whole-Time Director M.K.V. Rama Rao for misrepresenting the company’s books of accounts and violating the Prohibition of Fraudulent and Unfair Trade Practices (PFUTP) and Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements (LODR) regulations.

“I hold that the company overstated its books of accounts by way of not providing interest on its current investments, Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs), and other unsecured loans in FY 2018-19. Therefore, the financial statements of the company have not reflected a true and fair view,” stated SEBI Adjudicating Officer Asha Shetty.

The regulator levied a fine of ₹14 lakh on Jaiprakash Power Ventures, ₹7 lakh each on Jain, Gaur, Sharma, and Singh, and ₹6 lakh each on Porwal and Rao.

The SEBI investigation found that the company overstated its financial statements by not adopting correct accounting practices. Specifically, it failed to measure investments in Sangam Power Generation Company Ltd (SPGCL), Jaypee Arunachal Power Ltd (JAPL), and Jaypee Meghalaya Power Ltd (JMPL) at fair value during FY 2012-13 to FY 2021-22. Consequently, the company’s profit and loss account and balance sheet did not reflect a true and fair view.

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Share market ends in green, Sensex settles at 78,699

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Mumbai, Dec 27: The domestic benchmark indices ended with gains on Friday as buying was seen in pharma, auto, IT, financial service, FMCG, media, and private bank sectors on Nifty.

Sensex ended at 78,699.07, up by 226.59 points or 0.29 per cent and Nifty settled at 23,813.40, up by 63.20 points or 0.27 per cent.

Nifty Bank ended at 51,311.30, up by 140.60 points, or 0.27 per cent. The Nifty Midcap 100 index closed at 56,979.80 after dropping 145.90 points, or 0.26 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 index closed at 18,755.85, after rising 27.20 points, or 0.15 per cent.

On the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), 1,946 shares ended in green and 2,026 shares in red, whereas there was no change in 115 shares.

According to experts, “The Christmas week trading ended on a subdued note; a lack of major triggers and caution ahead of the swearing in of the US Republican Party administration continued to impact the sentiment.”

“While the rupee dropped to a new low, weighed down by the expectation of fewer Fed rate cuts, a widening trade deficit, and weak economic growth,” they added.

On the sectoral front, selling was seen in the PSU Bank, Metal, Realty, Energy, Infra and Commodities sectors on Nifty.

In the Sensex pack, M&M, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Sun Pharma, Nestle India, ICICI Bank and Asian Paints were the top gainers. SBI, Tata Steel, Zomato, UltraTech Cement, HCL Tech, L&T, Titan, TCS and Power Grid were the top losers.

The Indian rupee closed at a new low of 85.54 per dollar. The previous close of the Indian currency was 85.26.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 2,376.67 crore on December 26, while domestic institutional investors bought equities worth Rs 3,336.16 crore on the same day.

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