Business
Global growth rebound solidifies while risks broaden away from pandemic: Moody’s
Global growth rebound has solidified, but spread of delta variant poses risks, Moody’s Investors Service said in its latest assessment of global economy as the pandemic continues.
According to the credit ratings agency, G-20 economies are expected to grow by 6.2 per cent as a whole in 2021, after a 3.2 per cent contraction last year, followed by 4.5 per cent growth in 2022.
In the grouping, advanced economies will grow by 5.6 per cent collectively in 2021 and by 4.2 per cent in 2022, while emerging markets will collectively expand by 7.2 per cent in 2021, and slow to 5.1 per cent growth in 2022.
Excluding China (A1 stable), we project G-20 emerging market economies will expand by 5.7 per cent and 4.1 per cent in 2021 and 2022, respectively, Moody’s said.
With regard to inflation, the analysis said inflation has surprised to be the upside and appears close to peak. Accordingly, for most G-20 economies, the expectation is that inflation will remain elevated through 2021, and will subside only in 2022. Base effects will reverse and the impact of one-off price increases amid reopening pressures will fade in 2022.
Eventually, Moody’s expect that inflation will settle within central bank targets as demand growth falls back and supply bottlenecks ease.
Monetary and financial conditions are set to tighten, but not excessively so. With a growth recovery from the Covid shock in sight and upward revisions to central banks’ inflation forecasts, Moody’s said it expects a few advanced economy central banks to progressively dial back emergency measures, including liquidity operations and asset purchases. In addition, as the recovery consolidates, central banks may incrementally alter policy guidance, signaling a gradual shift in the policy stance from expansionary to neutral.
Risks will evolve over time as the pandemic becomes a less important economic driver, Moody’s said. The most immediate risk to forecasts in the near term relates to the evolution of the pandemic. Further out, unprecedentedly high levels of public and private sector debt could become a concern from a debt sustainability standpoint if growth and revenue prospects dim. The boost in digitization brought about by the pandemic could increase productivity but also create structural unemployment and social tensions, the Malaysia pointed out.
The pandemic has also accelerated political realignments, which could spur geopolitical tensions and cyber risks, it added.
Vaccination rates, the extent of serious infections and mobility restrictions remain the key determinants of where countries find themselves in their economic recovery cycle, Moody’s said.
Business
Centre releases over Rs 260 crore for rural local bodies in Kerala

New Delhi, Dec 15: The government on Monday said it has released Rs 260.20 crore to rural local bodies in Kerala as part of the 15th Finance Commission grants for the financial year 2025-26.
The amount represents the first instalment of untied grants and covers all 14 district panchayats, 152 block panchayats and 9,414 gram panchayats (GPs) in the state, according to an official statement.
Untied grants are meant to be utilised by rural local bodies/PRIs for location-specific felt needs under the 29 subjects listed in the Eleventh Schedule of the Constitution, except for salaries and other establishment expenditures.
Tied Grants, on the other hand, are earmarked for basic services relating to sanitation and maintenance of ODF (open defecation-free) status, including management and treatment of household waste, human excreta and faecal sludge, and supply of drinking water, rainwater harvesting, and water recycling.
Last week, the government released Rs 717.17 crore to strengthen rural local bodies in Maharashtra as part of the first instalment of untied grants for the financial year 2025-26. The funds were released to duly elected and eligible rural local bodies in the state, covering two district panchayats (Zilla Parishads), 15 block panchayats (panchayat samitis), and 26,544 gram panchayats.
The government, through the Ministry of Panchayati Raj and the Ministry of Jal Shakti (Department of Drinking Water and Sanitation), recommends release of 15th Finance Commission grants to states for Panchayati Raj Institutions, which are then released by the Ministry of Finance.
The allocated grants are recommended and released in two instalments in a financial year.
Earlier in November this year, the Centre released over Rs 223 crore for rural local bodies in Assam and another Rs 444.38 crore to strengthen panchayat bodies in Odisha as part of the 15th Finance Commission grants.
Business
PM Modi’s 3-nation visit to further bolster trade and investment ties

New Delhi, Dec 15: As Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarked on a three-nation visit to Jordan, Ethiopia and Oman on Monday, bolstering economic and trade ties is among the key agenda items of his visit.
PM Modi’s visit is expected to open far-reaching opportunities to enhance the country’s economic footprint across West Asia and Africa.
Last week, the Union Cabinet, chaired by the Prime Minister, approved the proposed Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between India and Oman, aimed at deepening trade and investment relations between the two countries.
The approval also came after Oman’s Shura Council approved the Gulf nation’s proposed FTA with India. The talks for the trade agreement, officially termed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), formally began in November 2023.
India and Oman share a long-standing and multidimensional Strategic Partnership supported by strong trade ties, energy cooperation and cultural linkages. The economic and commercial relations between India and Oman are robust and buoyant.
The bilateral trade between the two nations reached $8.947 billion during FY 2023-2024, and for FY 2024-25, it stood at $10.613 billion, according to an official statement. Bilateral investment flows have also been strong, as reflected in numerous joint ventures established both in India and Oman.
Moreover, there are over 6,000 India-Oman joint ventures present in Oman, estimated to be adding $7.5 billion to Oman’s economy in the form of total capital investment over a long period.
PM Modi will hold high-level talks with the Sultan of Oman in Muscat and discuss strengthening the Strategic Partnership as well as the strong commercial and economic relationship between the two nations.
Notably, India is Jordan’s third-largest partner, with bilateral trade at around $2.8 billion. Jordan is a key supplier of fertilisers to India, particularly phosphates and potash.
Although the size of India-Ethiopia bilateral trade was around $550 million in FY25, India was the second largest trading partner for the African nation. India’s key exports include primary and semi-finished iron and steel products, drugs and pharmaceuticals, fertilisers and machinery, among others.
Business
Indian stock market ends in bullish tone over hopes of renewed FII inflows

Mumbai, Dec 13: Indian equity benchmarks made marginal losses during the week amid sustained FII outflows and uncertainty surrounding the US-India trade negotiations.
However, the market ended the week in a bullish tone with Nifty surging 0.57 per cent on the last trading day after the US Federal Reserve announced a 25-bps rate cut.
Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex dipped 0.36 and 0.17 per cent during the week to close at 26,046 and 85,267, respectively.
Indian equities opened the week on a subdued note, amid continued rupee depreciation and negative global cues due to rising Japanese bond yields.
The US Fed rate cut later in the week eased liquidity concerns and fuelled hopes of renewed FII inflows. With supportive central bank policies, steady domestic investments, and optimism over trade progress despite unclear timelines, benchmarks closed the week on a strong note.
India’s year-on-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was estimated at 0.71 per cent for November this year which was marginally higher than the 0.25 per cent in October, according to figures released by the Ministry of Statistics.
Broader indices underperformed, with the Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 down 0.51 per cent and 0.67 per cent, respectively, in a week.
Sectoral performance was mixed, with IT under pressure while PSU banks, real estate and consumer durables witnessed selective buying.
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates, said that Nifty’s weekly chart shows buying interest at lower levels.
Nifty has 26,200 and 26,325 as stiff resistance levels while 25,700 will act as support zone, he added.
Analysts said that markets will likely remain positive in near future but sensitive to rupee stability, FII flow trends, trade agreement clarity, and cues from major central banks abroad.
Amidst risks from currency fluctuations and global trade uncertainties, improving earnings visibility and liquidity support provide a constructive backdrop and downside protection, they added.
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