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Frontloading infra spend could bring faster growth: Crisil

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India’s Union Budget FY23’s investment led push in infra sector is expected to usher in faster economic growth, ratings agency Crisil said.

The majority of Budget 2022-23 massive Capex outlay — Rs 7.50 lakh crore — will be spent on infrastructure development.

Besides, the budget steered clear from a definitive consumption push to support economic recovery.

Instead, it batted for investment spend, with an eye on the medium term.

“On the one hand, the lift in the consumption cycle is now tied to a broad-based pick-up in economic activity, which the government is trying to engineer through a focus on investments,” it said.

“Pursuing this path would enhance the growth potential and, it is hoped, will bring endurance to growth in the medium term.”

However, it pointed out that in the short terms, refraining from giving a direct consumption support could keep the pace of economic recovery slow.

Notably, the latest National Statistical Office (NSO) estimates for India’s GDP for this fiscal indicate that household consumption demand is lagging fiscal 2020 levels by 2.2 per cent.

“That makes it the worst performer among the demand components of GDP post-pandemic. To boot, private consumption was already slowing before the pandemic. It is a similar story with household incomes.”

“The current consumption slowdown also stems from the pandemic-induced income inequality. So, some direct support to consumption and incomes could have provided a faster lift to growth, besides providing people the means to survive.”

Moreover, consumer sentiment is an important cue for firms embarking on investment.

“Thus, policy support to ensure a sustained revival in consumption in this budget would also have incentivised manufacturers to invest in expanding capacities to meet what they perceive as rising demand.”

“The stage is otherwise set for an investment revival, large capex push by the government which would crowd in private investment, soft lending rates, other government policy measures such as the PLI scheme, and healthier corporate balance sheets.”

Furthermore, increased allocation for labour-intensive schemes such as the ‘PM Awas Yojana’, ‘PM Gram Sadak Yojana’ will support incomes consumption.

“From that perspective, the next fiscal should see the rural economy lead the recovery in consumption, with majority of these schemes benefitting the hinterland. Similarly, higher allocation for ‘National Highways Authority of India’ (NHAI) also favours employment creation.”

Business

India To Clock 6.7% Growth Outpacing RBI Monetary Policy Committee’s 6.5% Recent Forecast

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New Delhi: India is expected to clock 6.7 per cent growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal (FY26), outpacing the RBI Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) recent forecast of 6.5 per cent, credit rating agency ICRA said on Tuesday.The rating agency report projects the growth in the gross value added (GVA) to stand at 6.4 per cent in Q1 FY2026.

Improved transmission of monetary easing and the recent announcement of forthcoming GST rationalisation may help to shore up urban consumption sentiments ahead of the festive season, the report said.”ICRA estimates a double-digit growth in net indirect taxes (in nominal terms), aided by the sharp uptick in the government of India’s indirect taxes (+11.3 per cent in Q1 FY26 from -3.1 per cent in Q4 FY2025), despite the narrower contraction in its subsidy outgo,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head-Research and Outreach, ICRA.

“Benefitting from robust government capital as well as revenue spending, upfronted exports to some geographies and nascent signals of improved consumption, the pace of expansion in economic activity in Q1 FY2026 is estimated at 6.7 per cent,” Aditi Nayar said.The rating agency estimates the YoY growth in the services GVA to increase to an eight-quarter high of 8.3 per cent in Q1 FY26, from 7.3 per cent in Q4 FY25, supporting the overall GVA expansion in that quarter.

In particular, the combined non-interest revenue expenditure of 24 state governments reported a double-digit YoY growth of 10.7 per cent in Q1 FY26, up from 7.2 per cent in Q4 FY25.Likewise, the Central government’s non-interest revenue expenditure saw a turnaround, recording a YoY growth of 6.9 per cent against a contraction of 6.1 per cent in the previous quarter, said the report.

Rural sentiments, as reflected in the Current Situation Index (CSI) improved further in the July 2025 (100.6) round of the RBI’s Rural Consumer Confidence Survey, reflecting favourable trends in farm output in the last two cropping seasons, and the upbeat outlook for the ongoing kharif season, and a considerable cooling in the rural CPI inflation.

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Business

Indian Railways Introduces Discounted ‘Round Trip Package’ To Ease Festive Season Travel

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New Delhi: To avoid rush by ensuring hassle-free ticket booking experience during the upcoming peak festive seasons, the Ministry of Railways on Saturday said that it has decided to formulate a ‘Round Trip Package’ on discounted fare and rebates benefit.

The move will facilitate passengers and redistribute the peak traffic for a larger range during peak festival seasons and ensure both sides utilisation of trains, including special trains.

“It has been decided to formulate an experimental scheme named as Round Trip Package for festival rush on discounted fare,” the Railways Ministry stated.

According to the ministry, the scheme will be applicable for those passengers who choose their return journey during the prescribed period.

Under this scheme, rebates shall be applicable when booked for both the onward and return journey for the same set of passengers.

Passenger details of the return journey will be the same as those of the onward journey. Passengers can book their tickets from August 14 for the advance reservation period (ARP) date of October 13.

“An onward ticket shall be booked first for the train start date between 13th October 2025 and 26th October 2025, and subsequently return journey ticket shall be booked by using the connecting journey feature for the train start date between 17th November and 1st December 2025,” the Ministry stated.

However, advance reservation period will not be applicable for booking of return journey.

Other conditions to avail the benefits of the railway’s new special scheme are the booking shall be permissible only for confirmed tickets in both directions, total rebates of 20 per cent shall be granted on base fare of return journey only, booking under this scheme shall be for the same class and same O-D pair for both onward and return journey.

According to Railways, no refund of fare shall be permissible for the tickets booked under this scheme.

This scheme shall be allowed for all classes and in all trains, including special trains (Trains on demand), except trains having Flexi fare.

In addition, no modification will be allowed on these tickets in either of the journeys, and there will be no discounts, Rail travel coupons, Voucher-based bookings, or Passes be admissible during return journey booking on concessional fare.

Passenger can book their ticket via both online and offline modes; however, both onward and return journey tickets must be booked using the same mode (online or offline).

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Business

Sensex crosses 81,000 Mark, Nifty Jumps 157 Points On Strong Metal & Auto Stocks

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Mumbai: The Indian stock market ended Monday on a strong note, with the BSE Sensex rising 418.81 points (0.52%) to close at 81,018.72, crossing the key 81,000 mark. During the day, it touched a high of 81,093.19. The NSE Nifty also surged by 157.40 points (0.64%) to end at 24,722.75, after hitting an intraday high of 24,734.65.

Top gainers and losers

Among major gainers on the Sensex were Tata Steel, BEL, Adani Ports, TCS, Tech Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, HCL Tech, Trent, M&M, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement and L&T.

On the flip side, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Hindustan Unilever ended the session with losses.

Why the market rallied

The market’s rally was mainly driven by strong performances in the metal and auto sectors. According to experts, a weakening US dollar, strong auto sales, and positive Q1 results from key companies helped boost investor confidence.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, said,

“Consumption-driven companies are showing recovery in volume demand. Also, weak US job data may lead to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.”

Global cues positive

Asian markets mostly ended in the green with Hong Kong, South Korea, and China posting gains. However, Japan’s Nikkei closed in red.

European markets were trading positively, while US markets had ended lower on Friday.

Oil prices also slipped, with Brent crude falling 1.15% to USD 68.87 per barrel.

Meanwhile, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 3,366.40 crore on Friday, as per exchange data.

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