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Economic recovery to drive road traffic up 12-14% this fiscal

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Traffic

Road traffic volume will grow 12-14 per cent in the current fiscal, driven by economic recovery, continued industrial production, and increased preference for personal mobility fuelled by the pandemic, after declining 4-5 per cent in the last one year.

Resilient performance of the sector through the pandemic and adequate liquidity maintained by players would continue to support their credit profiles, a CRISIL Ratings study of 25 toll road assets across 11 states indicates.

Says Anuj Sethi, Senior Director, CRISIL Ratings, “Road traffic grew 57 per cent on-year in the first quarter this fiscal, albeit on a significantly contracted base of last fiscal, which saw more stringent restrictions. The bounce-back has been faster compared with the first wave, with normalcy returning in July as against September last fiscal. Consequently, traffic growth is likely to be healthy at 12-14 on-year.”

Commercial traffic, which is closely linked to the macroeconomic environment, is expected to log healthy growth this fiscal. Personal mobility, on the other hand, is likely to gain preference over public transport or shared mobility due to pandemic-related concerns, thereby driving passenger traffic.

With both these growth engines expected to fire, the sector’s growth prospects look brighter.

CRISIL’s base-case estimate, though, factors a modest impact of a possible third wave, and could see a downside of 200 basis points (bps) if it is more severe than anticipated.

The sector faced multiple headwinds over the last 2-3 fiscals, with revision in axle-load norms of commercial vehicles, economic slowdown and the pandemic affecting traffic.

To be sure, the sector remained resilient through the pandemic. A strict nationwide lockdown and restrictions on industrial activity disrupted traffic well into the second quarter of last fiscal.

However, once restrictions eased, there was a healthy bounce-back, limiting the decline in traffic to a better-than-expected 4-5 per cent last fiscal. This fiscal has seen a much stronger bounce-back after the second wave-induced restrictions in the first quarter.

While traffic in north, east and central regions remained fairly resilient due to lower caseload and thereby a faster relaxation of movement restrictions, the more industrialised southern and western states saw a comparatively sharper decline due to more stringent restrictions and slower recovery.

Says Anand Kulkarni, Director, CRISIL Ratings, “The credit profiles of players in the road sector are expected to remain strong, and their debt-servicing ability has not deteriorated due to the pandemic-related disruptions. Average debt service coverage ratio of the CRISIL Ratings sample is likely to be healthy at around 1.9x this fiscal, similar to our pre-pandemic estimates, after contracting by a modest 0.3-0.5x last fiscal. Additionally, adequate liquidity maintained by these players (debt service reserve of 3-6 months) would support their credit profiles.”

Healthy performance will continue to support investor activity in the sector, and CRISIL Ratings foresees strong monetisation potential in the sector through infrastructure investment trusts, private sales and toll-operate-transfer modes.

That said, an intense third wave impacting economic activity could moderate the sector outlook and will bear watching.

Business

Demand for homes priced Rs 1 crore and above boosts market in India: Report

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Mumbai, April 24: The demand for homes prices Rs 1 crore and above bolstered the Indian property market in the first quarter this year, preventing overall sales of 65,250 units from hard landing, a report said on Thursday.

Residential sales in Q1 2025 (January-March) experienced only a modest decline and added up to 65,246 units. This limited drop was primarily due to robust demand in the Rs 3-5 crore and Rs 1.5-3.0 crore segments, which helped counterbalance the slowdown in relatively affordable housing, according to a JLL report.

The steady growth in higher ticket size homes indicates increasing affluence among homebuyers, changing lifestyle preferences and buyers prioritising larger and premium properties.

According to the report, housing sales in India’s top seven cities continued to be dominated by Bengaluru, Mumbai, and Pune, which collectively accounted for 66 per cent of Q1 sales.

High concentration of MNCs and startups creating significant employment opportunities and ongoing infrastructure improvements make these cities increasingly attractive places to live and work.

It is interesting to note that over the last few quarters a significant share of quarterly sales volume has been contributed by projects launched during the same quarter.

Q1 2025 was no exception, with around one-fourth of its sales being contributed by quarterly new launches. Launches by reputed developers with assurance of timely delivery and steady price appreciation, are driving the trend, the report informed.

“The residential real estate market is showing signs of a shift in buyer preferences with lowering of demand for less than Rs 1 crore housing and a growing affinity for mid to high-end properties. This as well suggests a potential upward movement in the overall market dynamics,” said Dr Samantak Das, Chief Economist and Head of Research and REIS, India, JLL.

“This upswing in the higher-priced segment demand has shielded the overall housing sales from a sharper decline,” Das added.

Developers are focusing more on mid to high-end projects to align with current demand patterns. High-end housing sector experienced a steady upswing with 107 per cent year-on-year growth in launches of properties priced at Rs 1 crore and above, driven by strong sales in this segment.

Growth in launches despite economic uncertainties signals robust developer confidence in high-end housing demand, said the report, adding that 2025 is poised for robust growth in the residential sector demand.

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GreenLine flags off LNG truck fleet for Bekaert to drive sustainable logistics

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Mumbai, April 24: GreenLine Mobility Solutions Ltd., an Essar venture and India’s only green logistics operator of LNG and electric-powered heavy commercial trucks, has partnered with Bekaert, a global leader in tire reinforcement technology, to decarbonise road logistics and support India’s vision of a gas-based economy.

The partnership was flagged off with the deployment of GreenLine’s LNG-powered trucks at Bekaert’s Ranjangaon Plant, marking the beginning of a pilot phase that aims to significantly reduce the carbon footprint of Bekaert’s logistics operations.

Each GreenLine LNG truck is expected to reduce up to 24 tonnes of CO₂ emissions annually, contributing to Bekaert’s ambition of becoming carbon net-zero by 2050 and achieving 65 per cent of sales from sustainable solutions.

Commenting on the partnership, Anand Mimani, CEO, GreenLine Mobility Solutions Ltd, said, “Our partnership with Bekaert demonstrates the growing commitment of forward-thinking corporates to drive sustainability at scale. At GreenLine, we are proud to offer not just green trucks, but an integrated ecosystem — from LNG refuelling to real-time telematics — that empowers our partners to make meaningful progress on their net-zero goals.”

Dinesh Mukhedkar, Procurement Operations Lead — South Asia and Procurement Global Shared Service Centre Lead, Bekaert, added, “As part of our purpose ‘Establishing the new possible,’ and our ambition to lead in safe, smart, and sustainable solutions, decarbonising logistics is an essential step. This directly supports our commitment to ESG principles and long-term sustainability goals.”

GreenLine’s expanding fleet of LNG-powered trucks has already clocked more than 40 million km, avoiding over 10,000 tonnes of CO₂ emissions. The company’s ongoing expansion includes plans to deploy over 10,000 LNG and EV trucks, supported by a nationwide network of 100 LNG refuelling stations, EV charging hubs, and battery swapping facilities — targeting a reduction of 1 million tonnes of carbon emissions annually.

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US tariffs pose major headwinds, need to diversify supply chains: BOK chief

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Seoul, April 24: South Korea’s top central banker has said global trade tensions sparked by the United States’ sweeping tariff policy are a major headwind for the country’s export-driven economy, and the issue will likely accelerate its efforts to diversify supply chains.

Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Rhee Chang-yong made the assessment during an interview with CNBC in Washington, where he is attending meetings of the Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers and central bank chiefs, as well as International Monetary Fund–World Bank Group (IMF-WBG) meetings, reports Yonhap news agency.

“We are an export-oriented economy. So the trade tension, definitely, too is large headwinds. We will be affected directly by the U.S. tariffs, and also indirectly to its tariff to other countries. For example, our semiconductor production in Vietnam, car and electronics production in Mexico and our battery production in Canada will be affected,” Rhee said.

“I really hope this trade tension will dissipate, because it’s bad for everybody,” he added.

But South Korea has “some strengths” to manage the issue, as the country has been “luckily” diversifying its supply chains, particularly from China, over the last several years amid growing competition from China and some political issues between the two nations.

“This is a kind of natural movement to diversify our supply chain and also move up to the value chain. So that will continue, but at the same time, the recent trade tension will probably expedite the move,” Rhee said.

Speaking of economic growth, Rhee said it is hard to present a growth outlook due to high uncertainties surrounding the U.S. tariff policy.

“At this moment, I don’t know what kind of trade tension scenarios we have to assume as a baseline or reference scenarios,” Rhee said. “I may have a better idea after tariff talks with the U.S. tomorrow.

South Korea and the U.S. are set to hold tariff talks in Washington on Thursday (U.S. time), as the Donald Trump administration has put on hold the implementation of 25 percent reciprocal tariffs on South Korean imports for 90 days.

South Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.2 percent in the January-March period from the previous quarter, according to the BOK’s preliminary data released in the day.

The BOK earlier expected the South Korean economy to expand 1.5 percent this year, but Rhee later said the outlook seemed “too optimistic” and the central bank will come up with its adjusted figure in May.

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