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Economic recovery to drive road traffic up 12-14% this fiscal

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Traffic

Road traffic volume will grow 12-14 per cent in the current fiscal, driven by economic recovery, continued industrial production, and increased preference for personal mobility fuelled by the pandemic, after declining 4-5 per cent in the last one year.

Resilient performance of the sector through the pandemic and adequate liquidity maintained by players would continue to support their credit profiles, a CRISIL Ratings study of 25 toll road assets across 11 states indicates.

Says Anuj Sethi, Senior Director, CRISIL Ratings, “Road traffic grew 57 per cent on-year in the first quarter this fiscal, albeit on a significantly contracted base of last fiscal, which saw more stringent restrictions. The bounce-back has been faster compared with the first wave, with normalcy returning in July as against September last fiscal. Consequently, traffic growth is likely to be healthy at 12-14 on-year.”

Commercial traffic, which is closely linked to the macroeconomic environment, is expected to log healthy growth this fiscal. Personal mobility, on the other hand, is likely to gain preference over public transport or shared mobility due to pandemic-related concerns, thereby driving passenger traffic.

With both these growth engines expected to fire, the sector’s growth prospects look brighter.

CRISIL’s base-case estimate, though, factors a modest impact of a possible third wave, and could see a downside of 200 basis points (bps) if it is more severe than anticipated.

The sector faced multiple headwinds over the last 2-3 fiscals, with revision in axle-load norms of commercial vehicles, economic slowdown and the pandemic affecting traffic.

To be sure, the sector remained resilient through the pandemic. A strict nationwide lockdown and restrictions on industrial activity disrupted traffic well into the second quarter of last fiscal.

However, once restrictions eased, there was a healthy bounce-back, limiting the decline in traffic to a better-than-expected 4-5 per cent last fiscal. This fiscal has seen a much stronger bounce-back after the second wave-induced restrictions in the first quarter.

While traffic in north, east and central regions remained fairly resilient due to lower caseload and thereby a faster relaxation of movement restrictions, the more industrialised southern and western states saw a comparatively sharper decline due to more stringent restrictions and slower recovery.

Says Anand Kulkarni, Director, CRISIL Ratings, “The credit profiles of players in the road sector are expected to remain strong, and their debt-servicing ability has not deteriorated due to the pandemic-related disruptions. Average debt service coverage ratio of the CRISIL Ratings sample is likely to be healthy at around 1.9x this fiscal, similar to our pre-pandemic estimates, after contracting by a modest 0.3-0.5x last fiscal. Additionally, adequate liquidity maintained by these players (debt service reserve of 3-6 months) would support their credit profiles.”

Healthy performance will continue to support investor activity in the sector, and CRISIL Ratings foresees strong monetisation potential in the sector through infrastructure investment trusts, private sales and toll-operate-transfer modes.

That said, an intense third wave impacting economic activity could moderate the sector outlook and will bear watching.

Business

Sensex – Nifty Open Lower Amid Weak FII Sentiment, Midcap & Smallcap Stocks Lend Market Support

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Key Highlights:

– Sensex fell 171 pts, Nifty down 35 pts; midcaps, smallcaps held strong.

– FIIs sold Rs 3,694 crore worth of stocks; DIIs bought Rs 2,820 crore.

– Nifty’s bearish engulfing pattern suggests continued caution; 25,000 key support.

Mumbai: Indian equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty began Friday’s session in the red, weighed down by selling pressure in large-cap stocks. At 9:25 am, the Sensex declined by 171 points or 0.21 percent to trade at 82,087, while the Nifty dropped 35 points or 0.14 percent to 25,075.

Heavyweights Drag, Broader Market Holds

Major drag on the indices came from key constituents such as Axis Bank, Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and HDFC Bank. Financial stocks, FMCG, and private banking segments were under pressure. However, midcap and smallcap segments outperformed, providing resilience to the overall market.

Gainers on the Sensex included M&M, Tata Steel, Power Grid, L&T, Infosys, and Maruti Suzuki, reflecting strength in sectors like auto, metals, and infra.

Sectoral Picture Mixed

On the sectoral front, gains were recorded in auto, IT, PSU banks, metals, realty, energy, media, infrastructure, and commodities. Meanwhile, financial services, FMCG, and private banking faced losses.

Technical indicators showed bearish signals, with Nifty completing a bearish engulfing candle on Thursday. Analysts highlight 25,000 as a key support and 25,340 as a vital resistance level.

FIIs Remain Net Sellers

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued their selling trend, offloading equities worth Rs 3,694 crore on July 17 — marking the second consecutive session of net selling. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs), however, remained net buyers, purchasing Rs 2,820 crore worth of shares for the ninth straight session.

According to Dr. VK Vijayakumar of Geojit Financial Services, FIIs have shown a clear pattern of selling in July after buying in the previous three months. Without positive triggers, the downtrend could persist.

Global Cues Offer Some Relief

Asian markets traded mostly higher on Friday, with Shanghai, Hong Kong, Bangkok, and Jakarta in the green, although Tokyo and Seoul lagged. The US markets ended positively on Thursday, driven by upbeat investor sentiment.

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Business

Indian Equity Indices Open Flat As Markets Await Fresh Triggers To Break Out Of Consolidation Phase

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Mumbai: The Indian equity indices opened flat on Thursday, as markets looked for new triggers to break out of the consolidation range.

At 9.2 am, c was down 15 points at 82,619 and Nifty was down 2 points at 25,210. Buying was seen in the midcap and smallcap stocks. Nifty midcap 100 index was up 123 points or 0.18 per cent at 59,741 and Nifty smallcap 100 index was up 70 points or 0.37 per cent at 19,210.

On the sectoral front, auto, pharma, FMCG, metal, realty, energy, infra and PSE were major gainers, while IT, PSU bank, financial services and media were major losers.

In the Sensex pack, Sun Pharma, M&M, Trent, Kotak Mahindra, Tata Motors, NTPC, BEL, Titan and Power Grid were major gainers. Tech Mahindra, ICICI Bank, Eternal, Axis Bank, Infosys and HUL were major losers.

According to analysts, an India-US interim trade deal has been discounted by the market, leaving no scope for a sharp rally decisively breaking the range.

“One positive and surprise factor that can trigger a rally is a tariff rate much below 20 per cent, say 15 per cent, which the market has not discounted. So, watch out for developments on the trade and tariff front,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

Most Asian stocks traded in a flat-to-low range. Tokyo, Shanghai, Bangkok and Jakarta were trading in the green while Hong Kong and Seoul were in the red.

The US market closed in the green on Wednesday due to positive market sentiment.

On the institutional front, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to reduce exposure in India, selling equities worth Rs 1,858 crore on July 16. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained consistent buyers for the 8th straight session, infusing Rs 1,223 crore, lending crucial support to the market amid global uncertainties.

The broader trend remains optimistic as long as key support levels are respected, said analysts.

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Business

Tesla Mumbai Showroom Now Open, Bookings For Model Y Begin

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Elon Musk’s Tesla has flagged off its India operations with its first showroom in Mumbai now open. The showroom is located in Mumbai’s premium Bandra Kurla Complex area. It will be showcasing the popular Model Y and Model 3 cars at the venue. Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis arrived at the first Tesla showroom in India, to commemorate the occasion.

The new Mumbai showroom opening marks the entry of Tesla in India, one of the world’s fastest-growing automobile markets. The showroom, at Maker Maxity in BKC, is around 4,000 sq ft large and is said to cost Rs. 35 lakh per month. While customers will be able to book their cars starting today, delivery is said to commence sometime in August. Delivery and registration are only limited to Delhi, Gurugram and Mumbai for now.

The experience centre is located near the Apple flagship store in BKC. Tesla is said to open a showroom isn Delhi as well. While this is a soft launch, the company is expected to do a grand inauguration as well. To book the Model Y or the Model 3, consumers will need to head to the Mumbai experience store.

Musk’s company has imported all the cars fully assembled from China, paying heavy taxes (approximately 70 percent) on the same. The cars are said to be priced starting at around Rs. 40 lakhs in India.

The spotlight will be on the Model Y, which is the most popular variant of Tesla across the world. The SUV is available globally in two variants, Long Range RWD and Long Range AWD (Dual Motor). It claims to offer up to 574 km and goes from 0 to 100 kmph in just 4.6 seconds.

The Model 3, Tesla’s most affordable offering in the Indian market, will also be showcased but is expected to go on sale later in 2025. The top variant of the Model 3 clocks 0 to 100 kmph in 3.1 seconds, has a range of 507 km, and a top speed of 162 kmph.

Tesla India has reportedly leased a 24,500-square-foot space in Mumbai’s Kurla West to set up a service centre, located close to its upcoming showroom in BKC.

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