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Economic recovery to drive road traffic up 12-14% this fiscal

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Traffic

Road traffic volume will grow 12-14 per cent in the current fiscal, driven by economic recovery, continued industrial production, and increased preference for personal mobility fuelled by the pandemic, after declining 4-5 per cent in the last one year.

Resilient performance of the sector through the pandemic and adequate liquidity maintained by players would continue to support their credit profiles, a CRISIL Ratings study of 25 toll road assets across 11 states indicates.

Says Anuj Sethi, Senior Director, CRISIL Ratings, “Road traffic grew 57 per cent on-year in the first quarter this fiscal, albeit on a significantly contracted base of last fiscal, which saw more stringent restrictions. The bounce-back has been faster compared with the first wave, with normalcy returning in July as against September last fiscal. Consequently, traffic growth is likely to be healthy at 12-14 on-year.”

Commercial traffic, which is closely linked to the macroeconomic environment, is expected to log healthy growth this fiscal. Personal mobility, on the other hand, is likely to gain preference over public transport or shared mobility due to pandemic-related concerns, thereby driving passenger traffic.

With both these growth engines expected to fire, the sector’s growth prospects look brighter.

CRISIL’s base-case estimate, though, factors a modest impact of a possible third wave, and could see a downside of 200 basis points (bps) if it is more severe than anticipated.

The sector faced multiple headwinds over the last 2-3 fiscals, with revision in axle-load norms of commercial vehicles, economic slowdown and the pandemic affecting traffic.

To be sure, the sector remained resilient through the pandemic. A strict nationwide lockdown and restrictions on industrial activity disrupted traffic well into the second quarter of last fiscal.

However, once restrictions eased, there was a healthy bounce-back, limiting the decline in traffic to a better-than-expected 4-5 per cent last fiscal. This fiscal has seen a much stronger bounce-back after the second wave-induced restrictions in the first quarter.

While traffic in north, east and central regions remained fairly resilient due to lower caseload and thereby a faster relaxation of movement restrictions, the more industrialised southern and western states saw a comparatively sharper decline due to more stringent restrictions and slower recovery.

Says Anand Kulkarni, Director, CRISIL Ratings, “The credit profiles of players in the road sector are expected to remain strong, and their debt-servicing ability has not deteriorated due to the pandemic-related disruptions. Average debt service coverage ratio of the CRISIL Ratings sample is likely to be healthy at around 1.9x this fiscal, similar to our pre-pandemic estimates, after contracting by a modest 0.3-0.5x last fiscal. Additionally, adequate liquidity maintained by these players (debt service reserve of 3-6 months) would support their credit profiles.”

Healthy performance will continue to support investor activity in the sector, and CRISIL Ratings foresees strong monetisation potential in the sector through infrastructure investment trusts, private sales and toll-operate-transfer modes.

That said, an intense third wave impacting economic activity could moderate the sector outlook and will bear watching.

Business

Stock market ends lower as investors take cautious approach on US tariffs

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Mumbai, April 3: The Indian stock market closed lower on Thursday as investors remained cautious following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs.

The new tariff structure includes a 10 per cent tax on all US imports, with higher tariffs on countries with a trade surplus. India will now face a 27 per cent tariff.

The Sensex fell 322.08 points, or 0.42 per cent, to close at 76,295.36. During the day, the index fluctuated between an intraday high of 76,493.74 and a low of 75,807.55.

The Nifty also ended lower, down 82.25 points, or 0.35 per cent, at 23,250.10.

“The primary catalyst for today’s decline was deteriorating global sentiment, exacerbated by US President Trump’s announcement of a 26 per cent reciprocal tariff on Indian imports, which prompted a cautious stance among investors,” said Sundar Kewat of Ashika Institutional Equity.

Tech stocks led the losses, with TCS, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, and Tata Motors declining by up to 4.02 per cent.

On the other hand, Power Grid Corporation, Sun Pharma, Ultratech Cement, NTPC, and Asian Paints were among the top gainers, rising as much as 4.57 per cent.

The IT sector was the worst performer, with the Nifty IT index dropping 4.21 per cent, dragged down by Persistent Systems, Coforge, TCS, and Mphasis. Auto, oil & gas, and realty stocks also struggled.

However, pharma stocks performed well, with the Nifty Pharma index climbing 2.25 per cent. Banking, healthcare, FMCG, and consumer durables stocks also saw gains, rising up to 1.94 per cent.

Despite the overall market decline, smallcap stocks outperformed, as the Nifty Smallcap100 index gained 0.58 per cent.

Market analysts stated that investors are expected to remain watchful of global developments and their impact on market trends.

“The domestic market initially showed signs of recovery but ended with modest losses after the announcement of a relatively lower 26 per cent tariff on US imports,” said Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments Limited.

“Although the tariff presents short-term challenges, India’s economic resilience and bilateral trade agreement may help mitigate the overall impact,” he stated.

The rupee ended flat but traded in a volatile range between 85.75 and 85.35, as markets reacted to Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy.

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India’s GDP growth projected at 6.7 pc for FY26, cyclical recovery expected

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New Delhi, April 3: India’s economy is set to grow at 6.7 per cent in FY26, driven by a cyclical recovery and steady market performance, a new report said on Thursday.

Cyclical recovery refers to the phase in an economic cycle that follows a recession or slowdown, during which economic activity, consumer spending, and business investments start to rise.

Over the past five years, India has witnessed strong earnings growth, with the NIFTY index recording a 20 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR), according to a Lighthouse Canton report.

As the economy moves forward, the next phase of growth will depend on key factors such as government capital expenditure, tax benefits for the middle class, and improved consumer demand.

These elements are expected to support earnings recovery and market confidence in 2025, the report said.

India’s investment-led expansion has played a crucial role in economic growth. While the government continues to focus on fiscal discipline, private sector investments are expected to gain momentum, contributing to long-term stability.

The Reserve Bank of India’s recent 25-basis-point rate cut — the first in nearly five years — signals a supportive stance for economic growth.

“India’s economic engine continues to offer long-term promise, however, 2025 will require greater selectivity and discipline,” said Sumegh Bhatia, Managing Director and CEO of Lighthouse Canton in India.

He added that the investors will need to navigate shifting cycles, watch for inflection points in earnings, and remain anchored in fundamentals as the global order undergoes further transformation.

On the global front, market trends and currency movements will influence India’s financial landscape, as per the report.

The strength of the US dollar and rising global trade activity are shaping investment flows, while gold remains a preferred asset due to its resilience amid global uncertainties.

“Additionally, crude oil prices are expected to remain stable, benefiting India’s import-dependent economy,” the report noted.

In 2025, the focus remains on sustainable growth, disciplined market strategies, and long-term investment opportunities, it added.

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Institutional investments in Indian real estate up 31 pc at $1.3 billion in Q1

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New Delhi, April 3: Institutional investments in India’s real estate sector saw a strong start to 2025, with total inflows reaching $1.3 billion in the first quarter, a new report said on Thursday.

This marks a 31 per cent increase compared to the same period last year, driven largely by domestic investors, according to the report by Colliers India.

Domestic investments played a significant role in this growth, contributing $0.8 billion, which is a 75 per cent rise on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.

These investments were mainly directed toward industrial, warehousing and office spaces. The office segment alone attracted $0.4 billion, making up one-third of the total investments.

Hyderabad emerged as a key market in this segment, drawing more than half of the office-related inflows. The residential sector also witnessed a remarkable rise, with investments almost tripling compared to the first quarter of 2024.

The segment attracted $0.3 billion, accounting for 23 per cent of total investments, a figure comparable to the industrial and warehousing sector.

Interestingly, foreign investors led the residential investment surge, contributing over half of the total inflows in this segment.

The industrial and warehousing sector continued its strong performance from 2024, recording over $0.3 billion in investments during the first quarter of 2025.

This represents a 73 per cent increase YoY, supported by rising investor confidence.

Positive macroeconomic indicators, such as India’s manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) reaching 58.1 in March 2025 — the highest level since mid-2024 — have reinforced optimism in this sector.

The robust demand, higher production, and improved business confidence have all contributed to this growth, the report said.

Mumbai emerged as the top investment destination, accounting for $0.3 billion, or 22 per cent of the total inflows in Q1 2025.

Bengaluru followed with a 20 per cent share, while Hyderabad secured 18 per cent of the investments, according to the report.

In Mumbai, mixed-use assets attracted over half of the total inflows, whereas Bengaluru saw a majority of investments in the residential sector.

City-wise data show a massive 841 per cent rise in investments in Mumbai, compared to Q1 2024, while Delhi-NCR also experienced significant growth with a 145 per cent increase.

The report also found that Bengaluru saw a steady 26 per cent rise in investments during the same period.

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