Business
Economic indicators’ data expected to be mixed on geopolitical disruptions
The key high frequency economic indicators for March 2022 are expected to paint a mixed picture of the economy’s health.
The high frequency indicators include passenger vehicle and motorcycle production, output of Coal India, non-oil merchandise exports, ports cargo traffic, rail freight, GST e-way bills, finished steel consumption and non-food bank credit of scheduled commercial banks, amongst others
Accordingly, low base related to onset of second wave of last year may partly counteract disruption caused by geopolitical factors for some sectors over the next few weeks.
“Early data for March 2022 is mixed,” ratings agency ICRA said.
As per the agency, while the year-on-year (YoY) growth in electricity demand has eased to 3.7 per cent in March 1-15, 2022 from 4.5 per cent in February 2022, the sales of petrol and diesel of state refiners have witnessed a robust sequential growth in the first half of March 2022.
Besides, vehicle registrations stood at 0.83 million during March 1-17, 2022, equivalent to 50 per cent and 60 per cent, respectively, of the year-ago and prior month levels.
“However, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the resultant surge in key commodity prices, as well as the supply chain implications of the renewed lockdowns in China, do not augur well for the performance of inbound or outbound cargo shipments at ports and sectors such as automobiles, which are partly dependent on key raw materials provided by either of these nations, in the absence of any other alternatives.”
In last month’s data, the agency said that despite the lifting of state-wise restrictions after the rapid abatement of the third wave of Covid-19 in India, the YoY performance of nine of the 16 high frequency indicators worsened in February 2022, relative to January 2022.
However, eight of the 14 non-financial sectors exceeded their pre-Covid volumes in February 2022, in line with the previous month.
Moreover, the daily average generation of GST e-way bills scaled a new peak in February 2022, indicating a healthy rebound in economic activity.
“With the modest uptick in the YoY growth of electricity demand, amidst a dip in the YoY performance of CIL, we expect the IIP growth to remain sub-2 per cent in February 2022.”
“In month-on-month (MoM) terms, as many as nine of the 14 non-financial indicators reported a decline in February 2022, partly attributed to the fewer days in February 2022, compared to the previous month.”
Business
India-UK CETA to deepen collaboration across trade, investment, innovation: Piyush Goyal

London/New Delhi, June 28: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, in his meeting with the diaspora here, highlighted the opportunities emerging from the India-UK CETA, effective from July 15, which will further deepen collaboration across trade, investment, and innovation, contributing to shared prosperity for both nations.
The minister had an engaging evening interacting with the Indian diaspora and business community in London.
“Spoke about the vital role of the diaspora as a living bridge between India and the United Kingdom, strengthening economic, cultural, and people-to-people ties,” Goyal posted on X.
Goyal also interacted with members of the ICAI UK Chapter and emphasised the vital role of the CA community in strengthening the economic ties between India and the UK.
“Also, highlighted how the India-UK CETA will create new avenues for professionals. Urged them to leverage their skills, knowledge and professional expertise to maximise the opportunities arising from the agreement and contribute to the shared growth of both nations,” said the minister.
He also had an insightful discussion with Professor Siddartha Khastgir, Head of Safe Autonomy at Warwick Manufacturing Group (WMG), University of Warwick, on deepening industry-academia collaboration and advancing research-driven innovation.
“A vibrant innovation ecosystem is instrumental in nurturing breakthrough ideas, building globally competitive industries, and shaping the technologies of the future for India and the world,” said Goyal.
In a productive meeting with Dr Vishwajeet Rana, Group CEO of GEDU Global Education, Goyal discussed avenues to further strengthen India-UK collaboration in higher education, skills and innovation.
“Also, exchanged views on leveraging the India-UK CETA to foster stronger industry-academia partnerships and create new opportunities for shared growth between both countries,” he added.
Earlier, Goyal urged Indian companies to deepen engagement with their UK counterparts and translate opportunities under the India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) into sustained business growth.
Addressing the ‘India-UK: Partners in Progress Business Plenary’ in London, Goyal said the landmark trade pact offers significant opportunities to strengthen bilateral trade, investment, technology partnerships, innovation and resilient supply chains.
Business
India-US trade deal, oil prices and geopolitical tensions to guide D-Street next week

Mumbai, June 28: After ending the holiday-shortened week on a positive note, Dalal Street is likely to take cues from progress in the proposed India-US trade agreement, developments in the Middle East conflict, crude oil prices and foreign investor activity in the coming week.
Lower oil prices and improving risk sentiment helped benchmark indices post modest gains during the last week.
For the week, the Sensex advanced 0.39 per cent to close at 77,100.47, while the Nifty gained 0.18 per cent to settle at 24,056.
A sharp decline in crude oil prices emerged as the biggest positive trigger for the market. With tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal and tensions in West Asia showing signs of easing, Brent crude prices retreated to near pre-conflict levels.
The decline in oil prices reduced concerns over imported inflation, the current account deficit and rising input costs for Indian companies.
Investor sentiment also improved amid growing expectations of an India-US trade agreement. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said India and the United States are close to concluding a trade deal following discussions with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Market participants view the proposed agreement as an important step toward strengthening bilateral economic ties and boosting trade and investment flows.
At the same time, geopolitical developments in West Asia continued to remain on investors’ radar. The United States carried out strikes on Iran after a drone attack on a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, an incident that US President Donald Trump described as a violation of the ceasefire agreement. Earlier, a vessel near the coast of Oman was reportedly struck by a projectile, highlighting continuing tensions in the region despite ongoing diplomatic efforts.
Crude oil prices fell more than 3 per cent on Friday and were headed for sharp weekly losses as concerns over supply disruptions eased. The continued movement of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz helped calm markets and reduced fears of a major supply shock.
Meanwhile, the Indian rupee strengthened during the week, supported by lower crude oil prices and signs of improving foreign portfolio inflows. However, investors remained cautious over the possibility of further interest rate actions by the US Federal Reserve, which could influence global capital flows.
Business
Nifty, Sensex post modest weekly gains as crude oil prices dip

Mumbai, June 27: The Indian equity benchmarks posted a third consecutive week of gains, over sharp correction in crude oil prices to pre‑Iran war levels and improved traffic at the Strait of Hormuz.
Nifty added 0.18 per cent during the week and edged up 0.14 per cent on the last trading day to reach 24,056. At close, Sensex was up 109 points or 0.14 per cent at 77,100. It added 0.39 per cent during the week.
The domestic markets navigated a week of mixed signals with notable resilience, even as broader indices, especially mid-caps, faced modest selling pressure.
Easing geopolitical risks amid progressing US–Iran talks, and optimism around an India–US trade deal, helped fuel domestic investor sentiment.
However, expectations of rising inflationary pressure and a potential dampening in rural demand began to surface, driven by concerns over uneven monsoon distribution, an analyst said.
Sustained softness in crude prices remains a clear macro positive in the near term along with improving inflation, fiscal, and current account dynamics collectively providing the RBI with greater policy flexibility.
On the sectoral front, pharma and healthcare stocks outperformed, while private banks advanced following the RBI’s clarity on the FCNR(B) deposit swap scheme.
Metals were major loser due to falling commodity prices, while consumer durables lagged amid demand concerns.
Broad market indices showed divergence with benchmark indices, as Nifty Midcap100 lost 1.15 per cent, while Nifty Smallcap100 edged up just 0.03 per cent during the week.
Immediate resistance levels for Nifty are placed at 24,400 and 24,500, and support is seen at 23,900 and 23,800.
Immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,500–57,400 zone, while resistance is seen at 58,900 and 59,000.
As corporate earnings reports are expected in the coming weeks, management commentary on demand visibility, margins, and order flows will serve as key indicators for market direction.
“A prudent yet optimistic stance is warranted, with a focus on selectively building positions in fundamentally strong companies that have seen recent corrections without any meaningful deterioration in their underlying outlook,” a market participant said.
Investors remain keen on US PCE data that will shape global, along with non-farm payrolls and unemployment figures, which will influence Fed rate expectations and overall risk appetite.
Domestically, industrial production data and June PMI readings will provide early signals ahead of Q1 earnings season, according to analysts.
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