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Crude oil prices expected to remain elevated in medium term: HDFC Securities

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Global crude oil prices are expected to remain elevated in medium term, said HDFC Securities.

Accordingly, the brokerage house’s report, cited that Brent crude price which is currently at more than $75 per bbl has been driven by recovery in global demand with opening up of economies.

“The US was hit by Hurricane Ida in July end, which has resulted in disruption of production from Gulf of Mexico (GoM) of 1.7mb per day in August. The IEA expects supply from GoM to normalise by Q4CY22,” it said.

“With crude oil and product inventory in lower half of the five-year range and EIA estimating global crude oil supply growth to lag demand growth in 2021 as economy global recovery continues to gather pace, we see an upside risk to crude oil prices.”

Besides, the report also pointed out that domestic gas prices are set to witness a sharp jump.

“We estimate the domestic APM gas price to be revised upwards by over 60 per cent to $3 per mmbtu in H2FY22, and further by over 45 per cent to more than $4 per mmbtu in H1FY23 from current price of $1.79 per mmbtu.

“The APM gas price, which is currently at a decadal low, should rise sharply, supported by firming up of global gas prices post unlocking of economies and the current shortage of supply in Europe ahead of the winter season,” it said.

According to the report, improving realisation will benefit upstream companies.

“We expect, in FY23E, ONGC (standalone) to produce 23 mmt of oil and 24.8 bcm of gas, and OIL to produce 3.2 mmt of oil and 2.6 bcm of gas.”

“Increasing gas prices and rising Brent crude oil price should improve realisation and in turn drive earnings CAGR of 30-54 per cent over FY21-FY23E for ONGC and OIL. ONGC should also benefit from increase in gas production by up to 12mmscmd over FY21-25E as production from its KG basin blocks.”

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PM Modi’s visit results in India-UAE defence, energy pacts, $5 billion investment deal

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New Delhi, May 15: India and the United Arab Emirates signed key agreements, during the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday, on a framework for the bilateral strategic defence partnership, the supply of LPG and strategic petroleum reserves, and an investment to the tune of $5 billion US dollars in Indian Infrastructure and RBL Bank and Samman Capital.

An agreement was also signed for setting up a ship repair cluster at Vadinar.

Speaking during delegation-level talks in Abu Dhabi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, “India stands shoulder-to-shoulder with the UAE in every situation, and it will continue to do so. For the restoration of peace and stability, India will extend all possible cooperation.”

He said it was important that the Strait of Hormuz remains “free and open” and added that international laws must be respected.

The Prime Minister thanked UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan for strengthening the India-UAE comprehensive strategic partnership and said bilateral cooperation had gained greater importance in the current global situation.

PM Modi said both sides had agreed during the UAE President’s January visit to India to qualitatively upgrade relations and had already made significant progress in a short span.

“I extend heartfelt gratitude to you for taking our comprehensive strategic partnership to new heights. During your visit to India in January, we agreed to qualitatively upgrade our relations. Even in such a small duration, we have made significant progress in all matters. In the kind of situation we have at hand today, the importance of India-UAE strategic cooperation has vastly increased. In the time to come, we will go ahead together in every area,” he observed.

PM Modi said the impact of the conflict in West Asia was being felt globally and stressed that dialogue and diplomacy remain the best way to resolve issues.

The Prime Minister arrived in the UAE earlier in the day and received a ceremonial welcome. Later, he held bilateral talks with UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, popularly known as MBZ.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi began his five-nation tour from May 15 to 20, covering the UAE, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Italy. The visit aims to deepen India’s strategic and economic partnerships across key sectors, including energy, defence, technology, green transition and trade.

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Attention Mumbaikars! Petrol, Diesel Prices Hiked By ₹3 Amid Global Oil Crisis Due To Iran War; Check New Rates Here

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Mumbai: Ending days of intense speculation, the Centre on Friday announced an immediate Rs 3 per litre hike in petrol and diesel prices across the country, marking the first revision in retail fuel rates in nearly four years. The revised prices came into effect immediately from Friday without any transition window. Along with petrol and diesel, the price of CNG was also increased by Rs 2, a move expected to have a wider impact on transportation and household expenses.

In Mumbai, petrol prices climbed to Rs 106.68 per litre after a hike of Rs 3.14, while diesel rates rose by Rs 3.11 to Rs 93.14 per litre. The increase is likely to hit daily commuters, cab and autorickshaw operators, and logistics businesses in the city, where fuel costs directly affect transportation fares and commodity prices.

Among the four major metro cities, Mumbai recorded one of the steepest hikes in petrol prices. In Delhi, petrol prices rose to Rs 97.77 per litre and diesel to Rs 90.67 per litre. Kolkata saw petrol prices increase to Rs 108.74 and diesel to Rs 95.13, while in Chennai, petrol now costs Rs 103.67 and diesel Rs 95.25 per litre.

The hike comes amid mounting pressure on state-run oil marketing companies due to rising global crude oil prices. Earlier in March, Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) had raised the prices of premium petrol and diesel, but rates for regular retail consumers had remained unchanged until now.

According to reports, the three oil companies were collectively absorbing losses of nearly Rs 1,600 crore daily as they continued purchasing crude oil at elevated international prices while avoiding a retail hike. The Centre had reportedly delayed revising fuel prices in an attempt to keep inflation under control, since fuel costs have a cascading impact on transportation, food and essential commodities.

The pressure intensified after conflict in West Asia pushed crude oil prices sharply higher in the global market. India’s crude basket, which averaged around USD 69 per barrel before the Iran conflict escalated in February, later surged to nearly USD 113-114 per barrel in subsequent months.

Earlier, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to conserve fuel and adopt work-from-home practices wherever possible to reduce fuel consumption and ease pressure on India’s foreign exchange reserves. Supporting the appeal, Delhi Chief Minister Rekha Gupta announced a 90-day fuel conservation campaign and two days of work-from-home for government offices.

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MGL raises CNG prices by Rs 2 per kg across Mumbai region

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Mumbai, May 14: State-run gas distributor Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) has hiked compressed natural gas (CNG) prices across the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), raising retail rates by Rs 2 per kg.

Following the latest revision, CNG will now cost Rs 84 per kg across Mumbai, Thane, Navi Mumbai and other parts of the MMR with immediate effect.

The fuel was previously priced at Rs 82 per kg. The latest hike comes amid rising input costs and prevailing market conditions.

Reports claim that soon after the increase in CNG prices, auto-rickshaw unions demanded a revision in fares, arguing that repeated fuel price hikes were adversely impacting drivers’ earnings.

Union representatives have sought at least a Re 1 increase in the base fare for auto-rickshaws and urged the authorities to take a decision at the earliest.

According to the unions, the continued rise in operating costs has made it increasingly difficult for drivers to operate vehicles under the existing fare structure.

The latest price revision is expected to impact daily commuters across the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, where CNG remains one of the primary fuels used by auto-rickshaws, taxis and public transport vehicles.

Earlier this month, the government said the country has adequate stocks of petroleum products and that LPG supplies for domestic cooking remain stable.

Meanwhile, shares of Mahanagar Gas Limited traded nearly 3 per cent higher in morning trade on Thursday, touching an intraday high of Rs 1,072 on the BSE. The stock has touched a 52-week high of Rs 1,586 and a 52-week low of Rs 902 on the exchange.

The company reported a net profit of Rs 130 crore for the fourth quarter of FY26, while revenue stood at Rs 2,052 crore.

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