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CPI inflation likely peaked out; expected to moderate in February

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 India’s consumer price indexed inflation is expected to moderate in February 2022 from the levels in January, said Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Notably, high commodities cost especially of transport fuel prices triggered a wider inflationary trend in January 2022.

As a result, India’s main inflation gauge — Consumer Price Index (CPI) — which denotes retail inflation surged on a sequential as well as year-on-year basis.

The index rose to 6.01 per cent last month from 5.66 per cent in December 2021 and 4.06 per cent recorded for January 2021.

Accordingly, the retail inflation rate crossed the target range of the Reserve Bank of India.

The central bank has a CPI target range of 2-to-6 per cent.

Besides, the rate of rise in the Consumer Food Price Index, which measures the changes in retail prices of food products, increased to 5.43 per cent last month from 4.05 per cent in December 2021.

“CPI is likely to have peaked out and may moderate to 5.7 per cent YoY in February 2022. Moreover, growth is a bigger concern in India right now rather than inflation,” said Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

“In fact, we expect real GDP to grow 5-5.5 per cent YoY versus the market consensus of 6 per cent. Accordingly, we believe monetary policy normalisation would be gradual in India.”

Furthermore, food inflation came in at a 14-month high of 5.4 per cent YoY in January 2022 versus 4 per cent YoY in December 2021 and 1.9 per cent YoY in January 2021.

“Within food, vegetables were the major cause of upward movement in prices; excluding vegetables, CPI came in at a nine month low of 6.1 per cent YoY in January 2022.”

“Other items such as cereals and products, pulses and products, eggs, meat and fish, milk and milk products, and spices – which constitute 25 per cent weight in the CPI index – also contributed to the higher inflation.”

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Assam CM lays foundation stone for Adani Power’s Rs 48,000-crore thermal plant in Dhubri

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Guwahati, Sep 20: Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Sunday laid the foundation stone for Adani Power Limited’s 3,200 MW ultra-supercritical thermal power plant at Chapar in Dhubri district, marking one of the largest private investments in the state’s history.

The project, which entails an investment of around Rs 48,000 crore, is expected to significantly boost Assam’s power generation capacity while creating large-scale employment opportunities.

According to the company, the plant is likely to generate up to 20,000 jobs during the construction phase and around 5,000 permanent and indirect jobs once it becomes operational.

The foundation stone ceremony was attended by senior state government officials, industry representatives, community leaders and Adani Group Director Jeet Adani.

The Chapar thermal power project forms a major component of the Adani Group’s broader Rs 63,000-crore investment plan in Assam’s power sector.

The plant is scheduled to be commissioned in phases beginning in December 2030 and will comprise four units of 800 MW each. It will use ultra-supercritical technology designed to improve efficiency while incorporating modern environmental safeguards.

In his address at the event, Chief Minister Sarma said Assam is rapidly emerging as an energy hub for the Northeast and that several large energy projects are currently under development in the state. He described the Chapar project as a major outcome of the investment commitments made during the Advantage Assam Investor Summit 2.0.

“With an investment of nearly Rs 48,000 crore, this project will constitute one of the largest single investments ever made in Assam,” he stated.

Jeet Adani said the thermal power project marks the beginning of a new chapter in Assam’s development journey. “The project will also create jobs and open up opportunities for local contractors, suppliers and businesses. We are proud to invest in Assam and be part of the state’s economic growth,” he noted.

Highlighting the Group’s wider plans in the state, Jeet Adani said investments exceeding Rs 80,000 crore across power, aviation and cement sectors are already translating into projects on the ground.

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‘Digital trap set for citizens’: Raj Thackeray attacks govt over 0.4 pc UPI charges

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Mumbai, Sep 19: In a sharp political offensive against the Central government’s decision to introduce a 0.4 per cent Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) on select Unified Payments Interface (UPI) transactions above Rs 2,000, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) Chief Raj Thackeray on Saturday alleged that the administration has ensnared the nation in a carefully laid “digital trap”.

In a detailed statement on social media platform X, the MNS Chief accused the ruling MahaYuti coalition-led Maharashtra government of lulling Indian citizens into a false sense of security with free digital transactions, only to quietly impose transaction fees and taxes once people became dependent on the platform.

Tracing the trajectory of digital payments from the 2016 Demonetisation move to the nationwide push for UPI adoption, Raj Thackeray said that the trajectory was planned to make citizens reliant on digital architecture before levying charges.

“First came Demonetisation; then the UPI system was introduced with great fanfare to showcase the push for digital transactions. They trumpeted its success, basked in self-praise, got people habituated to it, and then suddenly announced that fees would apply. In short, they lulled citizens into a false sense of security and quietly ensnared them in a digital trap,” he remarked.

He said that he had consistently warned the public against assuming that zero-fee digital services would remain permanent, saying that the government’s process of “coming knocking at your door” to collect revenues has now officially begun.

He questioned why permanent budgetary provisions for long-term maintenance and cybersecurity were not established during the initial investment phase if the intent was genuinely to simplify transactions rather than monetise them later.

Rejecting the Union government’s claim that the 0.4 per cent MDR burden falls solely on merchants, Raj Thackeray asserted that the Union government possesses zero monitoring mechanisms to prevent small and large businesses from passing the extra operational cost onto consumers.

He sharply criticised the levy of 18 per cent Goods and Services Tax (GST) on top of the MDR, accusing the Finance Ministry of attempting to “dip into citizens’ pockets wherever possible”.

Raising questions around international policy influences, Raj Thackeray cited Opposition’s allegations regarding US pressure and asked whether foreign card corporations and global payment networks influenced the policy decision.

Releasing a official government tweet screenshot from August 21, 2022 — which explicitly promised that UPI services would remain completely free — the MNS Chief called the recent policy shift evidence of “unclear and non-transparent intentions”.

He formally registered his party’s protest against the implementation of the Merchant Discount Rate.

Calling upon the trading community, small business owners, and retail associations to take a unified stand, Raj Thackeray urged merchants across Maharashtra and the nation to vehemently oppose paying the new transaction levies.

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Nifty, Sensex post notable weekly losses amid global tensions

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Mumbai, Sep 19: The Indian equity benchmarks posted notable losses for the sixth consecutive week as foreign institutional investor (FII) selling continued and concerns about a prolonged high‑rate environment kept investors cautious.

Nifty declined 0.22 per cent during the week and added 0.33 per cent on the last trading day to reach 23,346. At close, Sensex was down 19 points, or 0.03 per cent, at 74,294. It lost 0.65 per cent during the week.

After a weak start, Indian equities staged a partial recovery later, supported by a retreat in crude oil prices from recent highs.

“With the US and Japanese policy decisions broadly in line with expectations, easing energy inflation concerns helped temper the inflation premium embedded in sovereign yields, leading to a moderation in yields in the latter part of the week and some relief for equity valuations,” an analyst said.

However, the accompanying policy guidance continued to signal a broader tightening bias across major economies, making a prolonged high-rate environment likely.

Against this backdrop, persistent FII selling sustained pressure on the rupee and capped the market rebound, leaving domestic equities lower for the week, he added.

Mid and small-cap stocks outperformed large caps as investors rotated toward domestically oriented businesses with stronger earnings visibility, healthier order books and sound balance sheets.

Sectorally, healthcare and FMCG attracted buying on their defensive earnings profiles and domestic demand linkage.

Realty and metals remained among the stronger sectors on Friday, while IT continued to face pressure, with the Nifty IT index declining around 1 per cent.

Mid and small-cap IT stocks and consumer durables declined this week on concerns over global technology spending and discretionary demand in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment and persistent pricing pressure, respectively.

Meanwhile, the 23,000–23,100 zone remains the immediate support area for Nifty, while 23,400–23,600 region remains the immediate resistance zone.

Market participants forecast that domestic credit growth and PMI readings will provide a gauge of underlying activity in the week ahead.

US initial jobless claims and commentary from Federal Reserve officials will shape expectations on the rate trajectory and global liquidity conditions.

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